FlashFlare11
Hall of Fame
Hey everyone!
I just wanted to start a thread where we could look at the potential rankings of the top 4 and beyond after Roland Garros, and if we may see any drastic changes. I'll do the top four here.
Grand Slam points distribution:
Champion - 2000
Finalist - 1200
Semifinalist - 720
Quarterfinalist - 360
4th Round Exit - 180
3rd Round Exit - 90
2nd Round Exit - 45
1st Round Exit - 10
Top 4 Current Points:
1. Novak Djokovic - 11,800
2. Rafael Nadal - 10,060
3. Roger Federer - 9,790
4. Andy Murray - 7,500
Defending Positions and Points at RG:
1. Novak Djokovic (Semifinalist) - 720
2. Rafael Nadal (Champion) - 2,000
3. Roger Federer (Finalist) - 1,200
4. Andy Murray (Semifinalist) - 720
Points with RG 2011 Points Dropped and Corresponding Ranking: The final point totals here are what I will base all of my calculations upon. Any additions or subtractions indicated in parentheses below indicates an operation being performed on these totals.
1(1). Novak Djokovic - 11,800 - 720 = 11,080
2(3). Rafael Nadal - 10,060 - 2000 = 8,060
3.(2) Roger Federer - 9,790 - 1,200 = 8,590
4(4). Andy Murray - 7,500 - 720 = 6,780
Novak Djokovic
Let's start with Djokovic, who is defending 720 points. First, I'll subtract his RG points from last year, but give everyone else 2,000 points:
Djokovic - 11,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2000)
Federer - 10,590 (+2000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
What we can see from this is that Djokovic's ranking is safe, regardless of what happens over the next fortnight. He doesn't have to play, Nadal or Federer could be champions, and it wouldn't matter. Djokovic remains No. 1.
Rafael Nadal
Next is Nadal. He is defending 2,000 points. Barring any upsets and presuming the top 4 all make at least the semifinals, the points will look like this:
Djokovic - 11,800 (+720)
Nadal - 8,780 (+720)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)
As we see there, Nadal making and falling in a semifinals with the other members of the top 4 would result in him falling to No. 3 and Federer rising to No. 2. Now, if Nadal makes the final and loses to Djokovic there while Federer and Murray make the semis, the points would look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 9,260 (+1,200)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)
If Federer makes at least the semifinals, Nadal must win the title to maintain his No. 2 ranking. As mentioned before, Nadal cannot overtake Djokovic no matter what happens at RG.
Now, I'll subtract Nadal's RG points while giving everyone the champion's points:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 10,590 (+2,000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Murray can overtake Nadal for the No. 3 ranking if Andy takes the title and Nadal loses before the semis. Interestingly, if my calculations are correct, if Murray takes the title with Nadal losing in the semis, they would both have 8,780 points.
Roger Federer
Federer is coming in with much to defend and not much to gain, rankings-wise. Roger is defending 1,200 points. As mentioned above, Federer can overtake Nadal if he and Nadal both make the semis and lose. If Roger makes the semis, Nadal must win the title to prevent Federer from ascending to No. 2. Subtracting Federer's points while giving everyone else the champion's points will look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2,000)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Federer can fall below Murray if Andy takes the title in Paris and Federer loses before the quarterfinals. Federer cannot overtake Djokovic, regardless of the RG result
Andy Murray
Murray is defending 720 points at RG and has much defend when considering his current position in the rankings. Giving Murray the champion's points while subtracting everyone else's RG 2011 points yields:
Djokovic - 10,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
If Federer doesn't make at least the quarterfinals and Nadal doesn't make the final, Murray winning at RG would make him No. 2. These are very unlikely scenarios and Murray will most likely maintain his No. 4 ranking after RG. However, this does not account for anyone currently ranked below him.
Overall, it seems very likely that Murray will not raise his ranking as he can only do so under extreme conditions. Djokovic will keep his No. 1 ranking regardless of anything happening at RG. From this, it appears that 2012's edition of the French Open will be a battle for No. 2, as there are a few different scenarios where Roger could ascend to No. 2, pushing Nadal to No.3. If both make the semis, Nadal must win the title to maintain his ranking.
If I made any mistakes, please let me know! And if anyone has anything to add, please do so!
I just wanted to start a thread where we could look at the potential rankings of the top 4 and beyond after Roland Garros, and if we may see any drastic changes. I'll do the top four here.
Grand Slam points distribution:
Champion - 2000
Finalist - 1200
Semifinalist - 720
Quarterfinalist - 360
4th Round Exit - 180
3rd Round Exit - 90
2nd Round Exit - 45
1st Round Exit - 10
Top 4 Current Points:
1. Novak Djokovic - 11,800
2. Rafael Nadal - 10,060
3. Roger Federer - 9,790
4. Andy Murray - 7,500
Defending Positions and Points at RG:
1. Novak Djokovic (Semifinalist) - 720
2. Rafael Nadal (Champion) - 2,000
3. Roger Federer (Finalist) - 1,200
4. Andy Murray (Semifinalist) - 720
Points with RG 2011 Points Dropped and Corresponding Ranking: The final point totals here are what I will base all of my calculations upon. Any additions or subtractions indicated in parentheses below indicates an operation being performed on these totals.
1(1). Novak Djokovic - 11,800 - 720 = 11,080
2(3). Rafael Nadal - 10,060 - 2000 = 8,060
3.(2) Roger Federer - 9,790 - 1,200 = 8,590
4(4). Andy Murray - 7,500 - 720 = 6,780
Novak Djokovic
Let's start with Djokovic, who is defending 720 points. First, I'll subtract his RG points from last year, but give everyone else 2,000 points:
Djokovic - 11,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2000)
Federer - 10,590 (+2000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
What we can see from this is that Djokovic's ranking is safe, regardless of what happens over the next fortnight. He doesn't have to play, Nadal or Federer could be champions, and it wouldn't matter. Djokovic remains No. 1.
Rafael Nadal
Next is Nadal. He is defending 2,000 points. Barring any upsets and presuming the top 4 all make at least the semifinals, the points will look like this:
Djokovic - 11,800 (+720)
Nadal - 8,780 (+720)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)
As we see there, Nadal making and falling in a semifinals with the other members of the top 4 would result in him falling to No. 3 and Federer rising to No. 2. Now, if Nadal makes the final and loses to Djokovic there while Federer and Murray make the semis, the points would look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 9,260 (+1,200)
Federer - 9,310 (+720)
Murray - 7,500 (+720)
If Federer makes at least the semifinals, Nadal must win the title to maintain his No. 2 ranking. As mentioned before, Nadal cannot overtake Djokovic no matter what happens at RG.
Now, I'll subtract Nadal's RG points while giving everyone the champion's points:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 10,590 (+2,000)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Murray can overtake Nadal for the No. 3 ranking if Andy takes the title and Nadal loses before the semis. Interestingly, if my calculations are correct, if Murray takes the title with Nadal losing in the semis, they would both have 8,780 points.
Roger Federer
Federer is coming in with much to defend and not much to gain, rankings-wise. Roger is defending 1,200 points. As mentioned above, Federer can overtake Nadal if he and Nadal both make the semis and lose. If Roger makes the semis, Nadal must win the title to prevent Federer from ascending to No. 2. Subtracting Federer's points while giving everyone else the champion's points will look like this:
Djokovic - 13,080 (+2,000)
Nadal - 10,060 (+2,000)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2,000)
Federer can fall below Murray if Andy takes the title in Paris and Federer loses before the quarterfinals. Federer cannot overtake Djokovic, regardless of the RG result
Andy Murray
Murray is defending 720 points at RG and has much defend when considering his current position in the rankings. Giving Murray the champion's points while subtracting everyone else's RG 2011 points yields:
Djokovic - 10,080 (+/-0)
Nadal - 8,060 (+/-0)
Federer - 8,590 (+/-0)
Murray - 8,780 (+2000)
If Federer doesn't make at least the quarterfinals and Nadal doesn't make the final, Murray winning at RG would make him No. 2. These are very unlikely scenarios and Murray will most likely maintain his No. 4 ranking after RG. However, this does not account for anyone currently ranked below him.
Overall, it seems very likely that Murray will not raise his ranking as he can only do so under extreme conditions. Djokovic will keep his No. 1 ranking regardless of anything happening at RG. From this, it appears that 2012's edition of the French Open will be a battle for No. 2, as there are a few different scenarios where Roger could ascend to No. 2, pushing Nadal to No.3. If both make the semis, Nadal must win the title to maintain his ranking.
If I made any mistakes, please let me know! And if anyone has anything to add, please do so!
Last edited:
