ESPN Experts Pick Novak
- Thread starter batz
- Start date
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nikdom
Guest
Just in terms of ability, level of play, form etc on a head to head basis, I put Murray on par with Novak right now, but after looking at the draw in detail, I too see an easier time for Djoker to win the AO.
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nikdom
Guest
Murray has to go through JMDP and Roger potentially to face Djoker. Novak has to beat Berdych and Ferrer to be in the finals. Given the Berd's history with Djoko, and Ferrer's history at the slams, surely Murray has the tougher job.
^^This.
In fact, they may all think he's got a 40% chance of winning, compared with Murray's 35% chance, Fed 20% and someone else 5% (or any other combination that has him just ahead).
Nole's consistency, and lack of serious challengers in his half of the draw make him a solid front-runner, even if it is just by a nose. It would be a major upset if he didn't make the final, which is a very good starting point.
N
nikdom
Guest
I don't understand this. What do absolute numbers have to do with who is favorite? It's relative numbers that matter when we call someone a favorite. It doesn't have to be 90-10 to be called clear favorite. In any case, the latter scenario is not even possible given how seeds are distributed. So likely hood of winning in percent between the favorite and second fav has cannot be more than 5-15%
N
nikdom
Guest
I don't think it's an exact science this business of calling favorites. Surely sentiment colors the view of even bettors out ostensibly just to make a quick buck. I'm sure all of UK wants to believe in Murray and hopes he wins.
dominikk1985
Legend
why wouldn't they?
he is the two time defending champion and this is his best surface.
he is the two time defending champion and this is his best surface.
batz
G.O.A.T.
I have no problem with it mate - I make him favourite too! I just find the degree of favouredness interesting.
rainingaces
Legend
Could it possibly be that more of these people prefer Djokovic's personality the they do murrays? They are closer to the dressing room then you or I they get to see all of murray's personality traits or lack of....
(posting it all for archiving purposes, since the link will disappear in 2014):
Men
Winner: Djokovic (10), Murray
Sleeper: Janowicz (3), Raonic (2), Tomic (2), Dimitrov, Almagro, Anderson, Nishikori
Toughest road: Tipsarevic (6), Gasquet, Ferrer, Federer, Berdych, Tsonga
Women:
Winner: Serena (8 ), Sharapova, Azarenka, Radwanska
Sleeper: Pavlyuchenkova (3), Stevens (3), Cibulkova, Tatishvili, Petrova, Bartoli, Barthel
Toughest road: Wozniacki (6), Kvitova (3), Errani, Stosur
Men
Winner: Djokovic (10), Murray
Sleeper: Janowicz (3), Raonic (2), Tomic (2), Dimitrov, Almagro, Anderson, Nishikori
Toughest road: Tipsarevic (6), Gasquet, Ferrer, Federer, Berdych, Tsonga
Women:
Winner: Serena (8 ), Sharapova, Azarenka, Radwanska
Sleeper: Pavlyuchenkova (3), Stevens (3), Cibulkova, Tatishvili, Petrova, Bartoli, Barthel
Toughest road: Wozniacki (6), Kvitova (3), Errani, Stosur
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rainingaces
Legend
You could also argue Murray has better recent records over delpo and federer then the other two you mention.
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nikdom
Guest
By degree if you mean the number of people who think Novak is the favorite then yeah, even if he has a relative advantage of only 10% over Murray, that 10% is significant enough for all those people to pick him and not Murray.
batz
G.O.A.T.
It could be - but it would have the square root of feck all to do with the question they were asked, and given that they are people with a professional involvement in tennis rather than someone who is eternally butthurt about his hero getting absolutely destroyed in the OG final (remind me again - was it a whole hour without winning a single game? You must've been spewing) - I think it's safe to assume they made their picks on tennis ability and empirical data.
But thanks anyway for playing.
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For reference, here's what their predictions looked like for last year's U.S. Open:
Men
Winner: Djokovic (9), Federer (3)
Sleeper: Haas (3), Gasquet (2), Querrey (2), Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Cilic, Nalbandian, Fish
Toughest Road: Berdych (4), Monaco (3), del Potro (3), Isner, Ferrer
Women
Winner: Serena (10), Kvitova, Azarenka
Sleeper: Venus (5), Clijsters (2), Ivanovic, Stephens, Shvedova, Kirilenko, Barthel
Toughest Road: Stosur (3), Radwanska (3), Errani (2), Wozniacki (2), Na, Kerber
Men
Winner: Djokovic (9), Federer (3)
Sleeper: Haas (3), Gasquet (2), Querrey (2), Kohlschreiber, Wawrinka, Cilic, Nalbandian, Fish
Toughest Road: Berdych (4), Monaco (3), del Potro (3), Isner, Ferrer
Women
Winner: Serena (10), Kvitova, Azarenka
Sleeper: Venus (5), Clijsters (2), Ivanovic, Stephens, Shvedova, Kirilenko, Barthel
Toughest Road: Stosur (3), Radwanska (3), Errani (2), Wozniacki (2), Na, Kerber
batz
G.O.A.T.
Interesting.
Nole had won the 3 previous hardcourt slams and 9 of the 12 thought he would win the next one.
Nole doesn't win the previous hardcourt slam, and 11 of the 12 think he'll win the next one.
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nikdom
Guest
Care to elaborate? I don't think I fully understand. Are you comparing Murray's record over fed/delpo with his record over Ferrer/berd or with Novak's record over Ferrer/Berdych
rainingaces
Legend
You know people vote with their hearts and their heads. You for instance, if you were to express yourself using your head you would not find much to type. But for the next 100 years you can drone on about how little willie wallace murray stuck it up the english favorite for gold. Dont you forget jock, we still got fred perry.
rainingaces
Legend
Murrays record over ferrer and berdych is a poor one.
N
nikdom
Guest
What does that have anything to do with the way the draw stands? The only clear estimate of Murray's title winning chances have to do with his chances in his side of the draw vs how Djoko's chances to handle his.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Thanks for giving me the reaction I was looking for.
That is possibly the most pathetic thing I've ever seen posted on teh internetz.
PS - you want to go easy on those ethnicity based insults fella, that way lies the Banhammer.
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zagor
Bionic Poster
There's being the favourite and then there's Rafa at the FO, Novak still isn't anywhere near that at AO, I mean people are shocked when Nadal loses a set at the FO (and clay in general).
Each of those 10 out of 11 experts could merely feel that Novak is a slight favourite when they picked him, especially after they've seen that he drew the weaker link Ferrer (no offense to the guy but that's what he is with Nadal being absent), they don't have to consider him to be an overwhelming favourite to pick him.
Look at it this way, in an isolated AO match Novak may just be a slight favourite to win (say 55 to 45) against Murray but a likely scenario is that Murray will have to beat both Fed and Novak to win while Novak will have to beat Ferrer (who is much less of a lock for SF than either Fed or Murray) and only one out of Fed and Novak thus it makes sense that most people will feel Novak is a safer pick.
batz
G.O.A.T.
I think you've nailed it buddy. I shouldn't look at this as their collective views on the probability of Nole winning - they are the views of 11 individuals. But you see where I'm coming from - we only place we usually see that level of agreement among the analysts is for Rafa at RG.
rainingaces
Legend
Well imo neither draw is hard. Murray should be confident in matches with delpo and federer given the matchups and recent history. Djokovic avoided tomic and murray avoided berdych, fully expect those two to make the final.
zagor
Bionic Poster
Yeah, I get your point, it is a bit surprising, I still think the draw (I'm assuming those picks were made after the draw came out?) might have been the one thing that made even those who were on the fence go for Novak instead of Murray (or Fed).
I thought that's what I was saying!
Essentially, a lot of people predicting the same thing doesn't give that much indication as to how confident any of those individuals is with that prediction.
It's one thing to pick a favourite, it's another to gamble your family home on it. None of them would be gambling their family home on a Djokovic win.
These predictions can be a bit like the weather forecast. The experts say there is a 60% of sun, the tabloids announce it's to be sunny, the public think it's BBQ weather, but it turns out to be rainy, so the public think the experts got it wrong.
Incidentally, one of the most "accurate" ways to predict the weather is to say tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. There are times when that is very, very wrong, but it's right more often than wrong with no expertise of genuine insight required.
I do think that a big reason for picking Nole is that he's very consistent. Even if he's 50:50 on winning, he's almost a dead cert for the final, so no-one will feel bad about picking a losing finalist.
Cesc Fabregas
Legend
Any of the top 3 could win it but Djokovic is the favourite. Theres my generic punditry, wheres my cheque?
Nostradamus
Bionic Poster
ESPN doesn't know anything about Tennis. they are all Football and baseball, and all other sports are just sideshow for them.
batz
G.O.A.T.
I thought that's what I was saying!
Essentially, a lot of people predicting the same thing doesn't give that much indication as to how confident any of those individuals is with that prediction.
It's one thing to pick a favourite, it's another to gamble your family home on it. None of them would be gambling their family home on a Djokovic win.
These predictions can be a bit like the weather forecast. The experts say there is a 60% of sun, the tabloids announce it's to be sunny, the public think it's BBQ weather, but it turns out to be rainy, so the public think the experts got it wrong.
Incidentally, one of the most "accurate" ways to predict the weather is to say tomorrow's weather will be the same as today's. There are times when that is very, very wrong, but it's right more often than wrong with no expertise of genuine insight required.
I do think that a big reason for picking Nole is that he's very consistent. Even if he's 50:50 on winning, he's almost a dead cert for the final, so no-one will feel bad about picking a losing finalist.
It was Saprkle - apologies.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Nobody is suggesting he shouldn't be favourite Bob.
batz
G.O.A.T.
Good points - nobody picked Murray for the USO last year either.
heninfan99
Talk Tennis Guru
ESPN "experts" also said Fed would never win another slam. Their opinions are no more valid than anyone elses. In fact, they are seem worse at seeing things in tennis then the average fan.
Fiji
Legend
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
He is, of course. Based on his past results at AO, his current form (results in the last few months) and now based on his draw as well. Mind you, that doesn't mean he will win in the end but it would be kind of irrational and unjustifiable at this point not to pick him as the main favorite.
veroniquem
Bionic Poster
Those were completely reasonable predictions imo. Fed hadn't lost before semi at USO since forever. Murray had never won a slam or beaten Fed in a slam before. Fed/Murray's draw was tougher than Djoko's. Djoko had beaten Fed at USO the last 2 times they played. Djoko had made final of both Canada and Cincy, Murray had done poorly on hard before USO. So, that prediction made perfect sense. But what happened instead is: surprise exit by Fed in the quarter (all of a sudden Murray's draw opens up), tornado force winds and several days of play in a row for Djoko. None of which could have been easily predicted before event started. Nobody can blame experts for not predicting the unpredictable. Predictions are (and should be) reasonable assumptions from known data, nothing more, nothing less.
TheF1Bob
Banned
So why are you surprised he's the clear favorite with the pundits then?
Novak plays like a BOSS at this event, just like Fed does at Wimbo, Nadal does at RG.
Some history (using that link that was posted):
2010 French Open
ESPN Picks: Nadal (8 )
Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Soderling
2010 Wimbledon
ESPN picks: Nadal (5), Federer (3), Roddick (2)
Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Berdych
2010 U.S. Open
ESPN picks: Murray (5), Nadal (2), Federer
Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Djokovic
2011 Australian Open
ESPN picks: Nadal (4), Federer (3), Djokovic (2)
Winner: Djokovic
Finalist: Murray
2011 French Open
ESPN picks: Nadal (5), Djokovic (3), Federer
Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Federer
2011 Wimbledon
ESPN picks: Federer (5), Nadal (3), Murray (2)
Winner: Djokovic
Finalist: Nadal
2011 U.S. Open
ESPN picks: Djokovic (6), Murray (2), Federer (2), Nadal
Winner: Djokovic
Finalist: Nadal
2012 Australian Open
ESPN picks: Djokovic (5), Federer (3), Nadal (2), Murray
Winner: Djokovic
Finalist: Nadal
2012 French Open
ESPN picks: Nadal (10), Djokovic
Winner: Nadal
Finalist: Djokovic
2012 Wimbledon
ESPN picks: Nadal (5), Federer (4), Djokovic (3)
Winner: Federer
Finalist: Djokovic
2012 U.S. Open
ESPN picks: Djokovic (9), Federer (3)
Winner: Murray
Finalist: Djokovic
2013 Australian Open
ESPN picks: Djokovic (10), Murray
Winner: ??
Finalist: ??
Times they've been collectively right about their picks:
Australian Open: 1/2 (winner as a pick: 2/2)
French Open: 3/3 (winner as a pick: 3/3)
Wimbledon: 1/3 (winner as a pick: 2/3)
U.S. Open: 1/3 (winner as a pick: 2/3)
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veroniquem
Bionic Poster
It seems Wimbledon 2011 is when they were the most wrong but what was Djoko's record on grass then? Also USO 2012 but some very unpredictable factors there too. Overall it seems they did pretty well (1st or 2nd choice winning).
cc0509
Talk Tennis Guru
Despite what many people think on here, I think Murray has a great shot for this title. IF Murray can make it through his draw and past Federer, he will give Djokovic a tough match in the final. I think if they both make the final it could go either way.
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