Biggest threat to #1?

[sramirez77]

As a long-time Rafa fan, after the shock and disappointment of his loss yesterday, my next thoughts were about his #1 ranking. Personally, I fully expect Rafa to recover from this, defend his Wimbledon title (at the very least, go deep in the tournament) and finish the year at #1. However, it did get me thinking a bit as to who might be the biggest threat to potentially take it from him this year -- as those RG points were something many of us already put in his column before the season began.

A couple of months ago, I would've said Murray without hesitation. But his performance on clay has changed that a bit. Despite his RG loss, Djokovic has looked very impressive recently. And of course you can't count out Federer. He already has AO finals points and seems to always go deep in Slams.

So, I'm wondering what everyone else thinks -- who's got the best shot? And do you think they'll actually take the #1 ranking or finish the year #2 to Nadal?

 

[Dutch-Guy]

As a long-time Rafa fan, after the shock and disappointment of his loss yesterday, my next thoughts were about his #1 ranking. Personally, I fully expect Rafa to recover from this, defend his Wimbledon title (at the very least, go deep in the tournament) and finish the year at #1. However, it did get me thinking a bit as to who might be the biggest threat to potentially take it from him this year -- as those RG points were something many of us already put in his column before the season began.

A couple of months ago, I would've said Murray without hesitation. But his performance on clay has changed that a bit. Despite his RG loss, Djokovic has looked very impressive recently. And of course you can't count out Federer. He already has AO finals points and seems to always go deep in Slams.

So, I'm wondering what everyone else thinks -- who's got the best shot? And do you think they'll actually take the #1 ranking or finish the year #2 to Nadal?

Fed has the best shot to regain #1 position.
If Fed wins RG, he gains 800. Nadal lost 1800. He goes to 13160. Fed goes to 11270.If Nadal loses in the final to Fed at Wimbledon, he loses 800, Fed gains 800, which would leave it at:
Nadal 12360
Federer 12070
So there is a possibility that Fed regains #1 after USO.

 

[Clydey2times]

If Murray wins the French and Wimbledon, he goes to number 1. The same doesn'y apply to Djokovic and Federer.

Murray is the biggest threat. It doesn't look like Federer will hold onto number 2 for much longer. Murray is 200 points behind. He could be number 2 by the end of RG.

Also, the clay season is over and Murray has closed the gap. He has quite a few points to gain in the next month before he defends Cinci.

 

[Clydey2times]

Fed has the best shot to regain #1 position.
If Fed wins RG, he gains 800. Nadal lost 1800. He goes to 13160. Fed goes to 11270.If Nadal loses in the final to Fed at Wimbledon, he loses 800, Fed gains 800, which would leave it at:
Nadal 12360
Federer 12070
So there is a possibility that Fed regains #1 after USO.

It's possible Murray gets there well before the USO, particularly with the number of points Rafa is defending prior to Cinci, when the pressure transfers to Murray.

It's between Murray and Fed.

 

[sramirez77]

Fed has the best shot to regain #1 position.
If Fed wins RG, he gains 800. Nadal lost 1800. He goes to 13160. Fed goes to 11270.If Nadal loses in the final to Fed at Wimbledon, he loses 800, Fed gains 800, which would leave it at:
Nadal 12360
Federer 12070
So there is a possibility that Fed regains #1 after USO.

If your scenario plays out, I actually think Fed would have a good shot at taking the ranking BEFORE the USO. He had some pretty poor results in Toronto in Cincy in 2008, if I remember correctly. Since he won the USO last year, I would think that would be Rafa's chance to take it back.

 

[viduka0101]

also nadal cant defend 800 points from last years olympics

 

[joeri888]

Djokovic is out of it for a while, although if he wins WImbledon, it's a completely different story. I think Federer is Nadal's biggest threat, because the hardcourt season still is quite far away. Federer is a lot more experienced in Slams, and a better grass and Clay player than Murray. It'll depend a lot on the coming week though. If Federer wins it, he might win Wimbledon because he'll gain what he lacked for so long: confidence. He's got everything you need for great grasscourt tennis, so...
Anyway, I'm dreaming. We'll see this week. The no. 1 fight might get unexpectedly interesting this year though

 

[Clydey2times]

If your scenario plays out, I actually think Fed would have a good shot at taking the ranking BEFORE the USO. He had some pretty poor results in Toronto in Cincy in 2008, if I remember correctly. Since he won the USO last year, I would think that would be Rafa's chance to take it back.

Also, Djokovic doesn't have as many points to make up as people think. He's not in the running, to be honest. Wimbledon is his only real opportunity.

He actually performed solidly through the US HC season. QF in Toronto, F in Cinci, Semis at USO.

 

[Clydey2times]

Djokovic is out of it for a while, although if he wins WImbledon, it's a completely different story. I think Federer is Nadal's biggest threat, because the hardcourt season still is quite far away. Federer is a lot more experienced in Slams, and a better grass and Clay player than Murray. It'll depend a lot on the coming week though. If Federer wins it, he might win Wimbledon because he'll gain what he lacked for so long: confidence. He's got everything you need for great grasscourt tennis, so...
Anyway, I'm dreaming. We'll see this week. The no. 1 fight might get unexpectedly interesting this year though

Yep, Nadal's loss has opened it up way more than expected. No one really considered a loss, let along a 4th round loss and the points he would drop. The race is more open now.

 

[Dutch-Guy]

It's possible Murray gets there well before the USO, particularly with the number of points Rafa is defending prior to Cinci, when the pressure transfers to Murray.

It's between Murray and Fed.

Yes but i think that Fed has more chance to regain # position than Murray taking it.Further Murray has alot of points to defend between Wimby(1/2) and the TMC.

 

[sramirez77]

also nadal cant defend 800 pionts from last years olympics

OUCH...forgot about that.

 

[Dutch-Guy]

If your scenario plays out, I actually think Fed would have a good shot at taking the ranking BEFORE the USO. He had some pretty poor results in Toronto in Cincy in 2008, if I remember correctly. Since he won the USO last year, I would think that would be Rafa's chance to take it back.

Fed has a good shot at taking the ranking before the USO as Rafa has alot of points to defend.If Federer wins RG, Wimbledon and does very well in the following Masters and Nadal doesn't, he could overtake Nadal before .USO

 

[Docalex007]

also nadal cant defend 800 pionts from last years olympics

So do those points just drop from his total when that time comes around?

 

[BigServer1]

If Federer wins the French, I think his confidence will be sky high and he will be a favorite at Wimbledon and USO I think. If Federer doesn't win the French, he could very well drop to #3 soon, and it could get worse because it will kill him mentally I think.

I'm hoping Federer wins the French because it would make for an absolutely epic Wimbledon if he and Nadal meet again.

 

[Clydey2times]

Yes but i think that Fed has more chance to regain # position than Murray taking it.Further Murray has alot of points to defend between Wimby(1/2) and the TMC.

Murray has a lot to make up at Wimbledon and I expect him to improve on his Canada Masters result. Also the possibility of a USO win. He has points to defend, but there's also room to gain points.

Thed AO result really left Murray playing catchup, though.

 

[Dutch-Guy]

Murray has a lot to make up at Wimbledon and I expect him to improve on his Canada Masters result. Also the possibility of a USO win. He has points to defend, but there's also room to gain points.
Thed AO result really left Murray playing catchup, though.

I agree.I expect him to go far in Wimby and USO and take at least 2 masters on hard,the surface he excells on.But i still think that Fed has the best chance to retake his beloved #1 position.

 

[Clydey2times]

I agree.I expect him to go far in Wimby and USO and take at least 2 masters on hard,the surface he excells on.But i still think that Fed has the best chance to retake his beloved #1 position.

Depends on their respective FO results. Murray, I'd say, needs at least a final. Federer really needs to win it to open up a gap over Murray. Even a win over Murray in the final opens up a 1000 point gap. He'll need that with Halle points dropping off and defending so much at Wimbledon, with Murray having a lot to gain.

 

[malakas]

I think the biggest threat to Rafa is Rafa himself.If he keeps losing in early rounds,even if Fed and Murray don't go on to win RG/Wimby he'll lose the spot.But if he plays well and goes deep I don't see him losing it.

 

[sramirez77]

I think the biggest threat to Rafa is Rafa himself.If he keeps losing in early rounds,even if Fed and Murray don't go on to win RG/Wimby he'll lose the spot.But if he plays well and goes deep I don't see him losing it.

Well said. If he can bounce back from this (like I think he will) he should be fine. If not, he's in trouble.

Even so, I'm definitely not pulling for a Murray/Fed FO final

 

[joeri888]

I agree.I expect him to go far in Wimby and USO and take at least 2 masters on hard,the surface he excells on.But i still think that Fed has the best chance to retake his beloved #1 position.

If Federer would take the no.1 ranking, say in cincinatti. Everything might change. Nadal becomes the hunter again at US Open, Federer the hunted. We might even see a Fed-Nadal final at the USO Show

 

[Joseph L. Barrow]

Given that Nadal already has a Slam, three Masters Series and a tour-level title under his belt, it will be a big ask for anyone to overtake him before the end of the year unless his game has a serious long-term drop-off.

 

[Clydey2times]

Given that Nadal already has a Slam, three Masters Series and a tour-level title under his belt, it will be a big ask for anyone to overtake him before the end of the year unless his game has a serious long-term drop-off.

That's precisely why he can be overtaken. He has a ****load to defend.

 

[sramirez77]

That's precisely why he can be overtaken. He has a ****load to defend.

I think the previous poster was getting at the fact that Nadal already has these titles in 2009 (since we're talking about year end rankings). But your point about all his points to defend going forward is also very true.

Gonna be an interesting second half of the season...

 

[Clydey2times]

I think the previous poster was getting at the fact that Nadal already has these titles in 2009 (since we're talking about year end rankings). But your point about all his points to defend going forward is also very true.

Gonna be an interesting second half of the season...

Ah right. My apologies. Thought that might have been the case after I hit "post".

 

[CountryHillbilly]

Murray has yet to lose almost 1000 points in October when Madrid is taken into account (bc it was played in October last year). So just take off 1000 from Murray.

 

[batz]

Murray has yet to lose almost 1000 points in October when Madrid is taken into account (bc it was played in October last year). So just take off 1000 from Murray.

If he loses in the first round of Shanghai, then maybe. DOH!

Great first post!

 

[P_Agony]

Fed also has almost zero points to defend in the pre-USO HC season. Cincy, Canada - he can gain points there. Plus, they all lose the Olympics points, so Rafa and Djoko will be the main victims of that while Fed and Murray barely gained any point there.

 

[Fedgasm]

If Murray hasn't gotten the number one spot by the end of Wimby, then he won't do it this year. I say Fed takes it back before US Open, he has tons of points to gain in the US open series. Djokovic isn't ever going to be number one.

 

[batz]

If Murray hasn't gotten the number one spot by the end of Wimby, then he won't do it this year. I say Fed takes it back before US Open, he has tons of points to gain in the US open series. Djokovic isn't ever going to be number one.

I don't think Murray will make number 1 this year, I also think it's quite a bold statement to say that Novak will never reach number 1.

 

[AprilFool]

Number two.

 

[CountryHillbilly]

If he loses in the first round of Shanghai, then maybe. DOH!

Great first post!

No, really. Look at ATP.com. Murray has 1000 from last year Madrid that are gonna drop on Oct 19. He has done badly this year in Madrid. So just subtract 1K from whatever he's got.

He can do better at Wimby though.

 

[batz]

No, really. Look at ATP.com. Murray has 1000 from last year Madrid that are gonna drop on Oct 19. He has done badly this year in Madrid. So just subtract 1K from whatever he's got.

He can do better at Wimby though.

You're a trier, I'll give you that.

The inaugural (sp?) Shanghai masters 1000 runs from 11-18 October. Murray will attempt defend his Madrid points from last year there. The 1000 points won't fall off unless he loses in R2 (he'll get a bye in R1).

 

[CountryHillbilly]

Of course he will attempt to defend. But he has 1000 points bubble from last year.

I dont see his points from Shanghai last year on ATP. What did he do then?

 

[CountryHillbilly]

Sorry, I didn't see "inaugural".

 

[Federer_pilon]

This is so premature. Fed is closer to #3 than to #1. He should be worried about keeping his #2 ranking instead IMO.

 

[CountryHillbilly]

This is what the first 4 guys MAY look like after RG:

(excluding 2008 Madrid and Olympics because they will drop off,
and assuming that Fed and Murray meet in the RG final and Scottish arse gets deposited in a Swiss bank)

1. Nadal 12150
2. Fed 10620
3. Murray 9260
4. Djoko 7520

 

[volleynets]

WOW I just realized if Murray does become #2 before wimby. Fed and Nadal could meat in the semis:shock::shock::shock::shock:

 

[federerdomination]

WOW I just realized if Murray does become #2 before wimby. Fed and Nadal could meat in the semis:shock::shock::shock::shock:

nope
seedings at wimbledon are also based on grass results in addition to atp rankings

Seedings will be

1. Nadal
2. Federer
3. Murray

 

[IvanAndreevich]

WOW I just realized if Murray does become #2 before wimby. Fed and Nadal could meat in the semis:shock::shock::shock::shock:

Nope. They see differently there based on past grass performances. Fed will still be #2 seed no matter what.

 

[OliverSimon]

Oh Sh** its Ovid!