Criteria for securing #1 ranking

[shawn1122]

I posted this in another thread and I am wondering if this is correct:

If Federer loses in the next round (round of 16) or in the round after that (quarterfinals), Nadal doesn't even have to win a match to get #1.

If Federer loses in the semis, Nadal would only have to win 1 match (round of 32) to get the number one ranking.

If Federer loses in the final, Nadal would have had to at least have made the semifinals in order to take the #1 ranking.

If Federer WINS the final, Nadal would have to be the other finalist for him to take the #1 ranking.

I wrote this thinking that Federer has already lost the 350 points that he is supposed to for his loss in the 2nd round of the Rogers Cup. However, according to the ATP website, Nadal's 500 points for winning has already been included in his ranking, giving him 6305 points in total. Federer, however, still has the 350 points he earned for making it to the final last year. I presume this will only come off after the week of august 7th. Federer has 6605 points right now, including the 350 for making the finals of the Rogers Cup last year. Once that is taken off, he will have less than 6305 points and Nadal will become #1. Is this true or am I missing something? Is it basically a waiting game until Nadal takes it?

Also, if this is true, the results in Cincinnati won't make a difference, since Federer cannot gain any points there and Nadal cannot lose any points (Nadal lost his first match there last year and Federer won the title.)

 

[MajinX]

to get number one ranking right after cin, fed has to lose before semi's and nadal has to win, because the old points wont be removed yet, and wont be for a little while so nadal will have to wait but after they do get removed the gap will get smaller again if he is not already number 1.

 

[Fed_Express]

Basically the tournament was at a different time last year so the points have not been removed, and the points from Toronto don't seem to be added on yet(or removed in Federer's case).

http://www.atptennis.com/3/en/players/playerprofiles/pointsbreakdown.asp?player=N409

Nadal seems to still have his points from his semifinal appearance last year, so shouldnt 275 more points be added on? That would make his grand total 6580. Federer has 6605 right now with his 350 points from the final last year still in there. He would definitely drop more than 25 points for his early exit in Toronto so shouldn't Nadal be number 1 right now? im kinda confused.

 

[daddy]

It is fairly simple. On 13th of August all the poins will be deducted ( both Cinci and Toronto which were played and counted latter last year - on 5th and 13th of August ) so basically at that moment Fed will lose 500 points for Cinci and 350 for Toronto last year - all of these 850 points are included in his total right now. Rafa will lose very low count of 230 pts. As Rafa already took Toronto situation is very simple - difference is 300 pts and if :

Fed loses before the final Rafa is nr1.
Fed reaches final ( 350 pts ), Rafa needs QF round
Fed wins in final ( 500 points ), Rafa needs a semi final apearence

Rafa needs to gain 175 points on Fed in cincinati ( because he will lose 225 pts from last years Toronto on 5th of August and Fed will lose 350 - so the real differenceright now is 175 points ) - either by Fed losing them by not reaching the final, or by gaining 175 points more than last years 5pts by reaching semi.

Conclusion - chance that change will occur at the top are almost 95%.

 

[Fed_Express]

oh alright thanks, it's really confusing man

 

[daddy]

^^ Just read my post, because everyone will write differently in press but it is not correct as I am talking about 13th of August as a valid date and they are talking about the next week. In order to be nr1 on Monday, Nadal needs to take the Cincy and Fed needs to lose before semis. But latter Fed will drop 500 pts from last year on 13th Aug and Rafa will drop 5pts so my calculation is correct if you look a week further.

 

[fastdunn]

I really think Nadal will tank Cincy in one way or the another.

 

[NamRanger]

^^ Just read my post, because everyone will write differently in press but it is not correct as I am talking about 13th of August as a valid date and they are talking about the next week. In order to be nr1 on Monday, Nadal needs to take the Cincy and Fed needs to lose before semis. But latter Fed will drop 500 pts from last year on 13th Aug and Rafa will drop 5pts so my calculation is correct if you look a week further.

You forgot to calculate the 400 pts either player can pick up at the Olympics.

 

[daddy]

You forgot to calculate the 400 pts either player can pick up at the Olympics.

It is even steven cause they both got a shot there but no points will be deducted from a year before. I went on with this assumption.