Djokovic-Federer rivalry was 11-6 in Grand Slams, how would you predict win/loss if they met in the other 13 Grand Slam matches?

[McEnroeisanartist]

Djokovic won 11 out of 17 Grand Slam matches against Federer.

Remarkably, they were one match away from playing each other in another 13 Grand Slam matches. (Djokovic lost 8 times in round prior and Federer lost 5 times)

2006 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Ancic in 4th Round
2007 French Open - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2007 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2008 French Open - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2009 Australian Open - Djokovic lost to Roddick in Quarterfinals
2009 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Haas in Quarterfinals
2010 Australian Open - Djokovic lost to Tsonga in Semifinals
2010 Wimbledon - Federer lost to Berydch in Quarterfinals
2011 Wimbledon - Federer lost to Tsonga in Quarterfinals
2012 Australian Open - Federer lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2013 Australian Open - Federer lost to Murray in Semifinals
2017 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Berdych in Quarterfinals
2021 French Open - Federer withdrew to Berretini in 4th Round

Who you do think wins the 13 matches that they were close to playing?

 

[Milanez82]

Djokovic 8-5

 

[Kralingen]

Going one by one:

2006 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2007 French Open - Federer clearly
2007 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2008 French Open - toss up, but given their respective performances vs Nadal: Djokovic by a hair
2009 Australian Open - Federer clearly
2009 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2010 Australian Open - Federer clearly
2010 Wimbledon - Federer edges it
2011 Wimbledon - fun toss up: I may actually favour Roger here.
2012 Australian Open - Djokovic edges it
2013 Australian Open - Djokovic clearly
2017 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2021 French Open - Djokovic clearly

 

[inflation_era]

No contest, Djokovic numbers are a matter of circumstance.

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Federer would be leading 19-11

 

[fedfan24]

2006 Wimbledon - Federer in straights
2007 French Open - Federer in 3 sets, 2 close
2007 Wimbledon - Federer in straights
2008 French Open - Federer in 4. 08 Federer wasn’t horrible on clay and 08 Djokoivc isn’t peak Nadal.
2009 Australian Open - Federer in 3
2009 French Open - Federer in 4.
2009 Wimbledon - Federer in 3
2010 Australian Open - Federer in 4
2010 Wimbledon - Federer in 4, horrible match.
2011 Wimbledon - Federer in 4 close sets
2012 Australian Open - Djokovic in 4, maybe 5
2013 Australian Open - Djokovic in 4, comfortable win
2017 Wimbledon - Federer in 4
2021 French Open - Djokovic in 3


Yikes this does highlight how much Djokovic avoided 2009-2010 Federer. Tsonga did him a favour at 2011 W too. Federer coming off the RG win on his favourite surface would’ve been favourite.

 

[Matrix968]

Federer would be leading 19-11

How about 24-6, I like it more...

 

[TheAssassin]

2018 US Open was a narrow miss too.

 

[Neptune]

Putting Nole in Rafa's side on clay, and Nole in Fed's side off clay.
The script plays out seamlessly until Nole breaks Fed.

 

[Turning Pro]

Going one by one:

2006 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2007 French Open - Federer clearly
2007 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2008 French Open - toss up, but given their respective performances vs Nadal: Djokovic by a hair
2009 Australian Open - Federer clearly
2009 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2010 Australian Open - Federer clearly
2010 Wimbledon - Federer edges it
2011 Wimbledon - fun toss up: I may actually favour Roger here.
2012 Australian Open - Djokovic edges it
2013 Australian Open - Djokovic clearly
2017 Wimbledon - Federer clearly
2021 French Open - Djokovic clearly

This is the one, although the exception is Wimbledon 2011 in 4 for Djokovic.

Obvs Fed 2004-07 in 4.

Djokovic clearly got lots of post prime Fed, especially at Wimbledon.

 

[FlyingSaucer]

Shame we didn't ever get a Fed-Djo AO final.

 

[MeatTornado]

08 RG and 11 Wimbledon are the only two on the list that are interesting to me.

 

[Third Serve]

Djokovic won 11 out of 17 Grand Slam matches against Federer.

Remarkably, they were one match away from playing each other in another 13 Grand Slam matches. (Djokovic lost 8 times in round prior and Federer lost 5 times)

2006 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Ancic in 4th Round
2007 French Open - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2007 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2008 French Open - Djokovic lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2009 Australian Open - Djokovic lost to Roddick in Quarterfinals
2009 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Haas in Quarterfinals
2010 Australian Open - Djokovic lost to Tsonga in Semifinals
2010 Wimbledon - Federer lost to Berydch in Quarterfinals
2011 Wimbledon - Federer lost to Tsonga in Quarterfinals
2012 Australian Open - Federer lost to Nadal in Semifinals
2013 Australian Open - Federer lost to Murray in Semifinals
2017 Wimbledon - Djokovic lost to Berdych in Quarterfinals
2021 French Open - Federer withdrew to Berretini in 4th Round

Who you do think wins the 13 matches that they were close to playing?

2006 W: Federer in 3
2007 RG: Federer in 4
2007 W: Federer in 3 (or 2?)
2008 RG: Djokovic in 5
2009 AO: Federer in 4
2009 W: Federer in 3/4
2010 AO: Federer in 3/4
2010 W: Federer in 5
2011 W: Legitimate tossup
2012 AO: Djokovic in 4
2013 AO: Djokovic in 4
2017 W: Federer in 3
2018 USO (added): Djokovic in 3/4
2021 RG: Djokovic in 3

This kinda underscores just how much more often Fed made it to the deeper rounds of Slams to face prime Djokovic compared to vice versa. It’s because post-prime Fed was obviously > pre-prime Djokovic except in a few isolated tournaments. But it does ultimately result in a much larger sample size of matches occurring during Djokovic’s prime. And the H2H itself is close enough that a slight change in that proportion might be all it would take to reverse the tally.

 

[Silentchimera]

The more interesting questions are: How well did each player do in their different circumstances (age, competition, changes to playing conditions, playing style, era, etc)? How do these different circumstances change our perception of the statistics? Are we trying to convince ourselves of something we want to (we don't believe)? Some people are incapable of such mind bending thought (when they don't like the answers) but they should work on it. This is what is known as "meaningful context" to go with statistics. Statistics are useless without meaningful context. If a poster is incapable of this consistently, they don't even know what greatness means (and live in a fantasy land where: "Greater = More Insignificant" when it suits them). One more question: How much do you want your beliefs and opinions to be worth? Edit: decided to make a new thread and not derail this one.

 

[Mustard]

I'd still favour Federer at the 2008 French Open over Djokovic.

 

[Breakpointerer]

Only two of these (RG08 and Wimbledon 2011) are truly up for debate. Of the others, probably 8-4 Federer ( including USO18).