Does Nadal stand a chance if they meet in the RG final?

[Ralph]

Having watched the last set and a half and highlights of the first set of yesterday's Rome final, it occurred to me that Nadal is going to find it hard to win at RG.... "IF" Nole brings that same form to the match consistently.

However, if he does, what CAN Nadal do to counteract it?

Play more offensively? Yes, he should. His amount of winners compared to his opponent's was something like a third. His forehand (aside from the occasional inside out one) poses no problem to Nole. His backhand does what it does, but he doesn't win many matches with it regardless of the opponent.

Cut down the errors? Yes. Uncharacteristically, he sent quite a few shots past the baseline or over the sidelines. His consistency in this regard was surprising.

Serve better? Well, I'd say he has to do something with his second serve. Nole was teeing off several times for winners, or just putting them back at his feet - putting the advantage to Nole in the proceeding rally immediately.

But what CAN you do with such little time to work on your serve, not when it is ground in. Could the old US Open serve be brought back for the French one more time?

What else can Nadal do? At times, he looked helpless, as helpless as he makes others look.

 

[SLD76]

If djoker is healthy and plays like he did yesterday without any mental yips
...


Easy straight sets victory.

Nadal summoned some fight and amped his game, but nole had an answer for every plan of attack and all his defense.

 

[Ralph]

If djoker is healthy and plays like he did yesterday without any mental yips
...


Easy straight sets victory.

Nadal summoned some fight and amped his game, but nole had an answer for every plan of attack and all his defense.

Yes, that seemed to be the case.

I notice many people say that the 5 set conditions, the fact that it's RG (and Nadal is the King etc. of it), means that he is the favourite. Whilst my head agrees with the fact that dethroning him won't be easy, it also saw how it can be done on clay if you play consistently.

If Nole plays, consistently, then all of Nadal's history and hierarchy at RG shouldn't mean a thing, should it?

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Djokovic's game is fully designed to dismantle Nadal. So, Nadal will need to bring a solid A game, and also hope that Djokovic is not in God-mode to help his chances of retaining...should they meet.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Yes, that seemed to be the case.

I notice many people say that the 5 set conditions, the fact that it's RG (and Nadal is the King etc. of it), means that he is the favourite. Whilst my head agrees with the fact that dethroning him won't be easy, it also saw how it can be done on clay if you play consistently.

If Nole plays, consistently, then all of Nadal's history and hierarchy at RG shouldn't mean a thing, should it?

He plays well consistently, and had the mindset that Rosol had at Wimbledon, where he totally disregarded Nadal's legacy. Yes, it was on grass, but Nadal had made the last five finals from his last five outings there. He didn't blink and went for the kill, not allowing the mental side of things to weigh him down. If Novak brings that attitude, with his game, he stands a good chance to do it.

 

[Russeljones]

All one needs to do is watch last year's RG semi. Nadal adapted and overcame.

 

[SLD76]

Djokovic's game is fully designed to dismantle Nadal. So, Nadal will need to bring a solid A game, and also hope that Djokovic is not in God-mode to help his chances of retaining...should they meet.

This. All Nadal's plan of attack play into djoker hands and he isn't bothered by his defense.

When djoker plays confidwnt, aggressive and consistrnt..There is little rafa can do. And mentally he is even stronger
Last year whe. He choked away the 5th set break he panicked and folded.

When he gave back the 3rd set break he didn't panic, just stayed the course and broke right back. And it wasn't that Rafa choked like in the AO 12 final, djoker *took* that break back.

 

[SLD76]

All one needs to do is watch last year's RG semi. Nadal adapted and overcame.

No. Rafa amped his game like he did today. But instead of getting tight, choking and panicking like he did last year, djoker stayed the course and beat him into submission

 

[vladap]

...if they meet in RG final !?!
who should Ralph meet there...Pascal Maria?

 

[Chanwan]

Djokovic's game is fully designed to dismantle Nadal. So, Nadal will need to bring a solid A game, and also hope that Djokovic is not in God-mode to help his chances of retaining...should they meet.

Nadal will have a hard time beating god-mode Djoko. That said, hot and dry weather will help him a lot. If he gets that.
Remember 2012 and Djoko's 8 straight games? That was wet and rainy. The next day, iirc, the sun was back up and Nadal turned the 4th set around and broke twice.

So Nadal needs
a) weather favoring his style, i.e. bounce
b) to be more assertive and aggressive and
c) hope that god-mode Djoko stays at home.

But as you said in a different thread - it takes something special to dethrone a king.

 

[SLD76]

Nadal will have a hard time beating god-mode Djoko. That said, hot and dry weather will help him a lot. If he gets that.
Remember 2012 and Djoko's 8 straight games? That was wet and rainy. The next day, iirc, the sun was back up and Nadal turned the 4th set around and broke twice.

So Nadal needs
a) weather favoring his style, i.e. bounce
b) to be more assertive and aggressive and
c) hope that god-mode Djoko stays at home.

But as you said in a different thread - it takes something special to dethrone a king.

Hot and dry won't matter if he can't get the ball past the service box.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

This. All Nadal's plan of attack play into djoker hands and he isn't bothered by his defense.

When djoker plays confidwnt, aggressive and consistrnt..There is little rafa can do. And mentally he is even stronger
Last year whe. He choked away the 5th set break he panicked and folded.

When he gave back the 3rd set break he didn't panic, just stayed the course and broke right back. And it wasn't that Rafa choked like in the AO 12 final, djoker *took* that break back.

Yes. Djokovic took the lesson that Nadal gave him last year in the fifth set of RG, and played well within himself, and if anything became even more lethal with his pin point accuracy, and wrestled control of the match straight back. The Nadal fight back is almost a given, when Rafa is cornered, he becomes aggressive and like a raging bull, takes the attack to the opponent. This time, Djokovic was fully ready for it, and knew what he needed to do when the moment came.

Novak has shown that he added a little something extra to his formula in beating Nadal.

 

[furryballs]

Nadal will have a hard time beating god-mode Djoko. That said, hot and dry weather will help him a lot. If he gets that.
Remember 2012 and Djoko's 8 straight games? That was wet and rainy. The next day, iirc, the sun was back up and Nadal turned the 4th set around and broke twice.

So Nadal needs
a) weather favoring his style, i.e. bounce
b) to be more assertive and aggressive and
c) hope that god-mode Djoko stays at home.

But as you said in a different thread - it takes something special to dethrone a king.

weather is looking to be quite cool and damp in paris.

 

[SLD76]

Yes. Djokovic took the lesson that Nadal gave him last year in the fifth set of RG, and played well within himself, and if anything became even more lethal with his pin point accuracy, and wrestled control of the match straight back. The Nadal fight back is almost a given, when Rafa is cornered, he becomes aggressive and like a raging bull, takes the attack to the opponent. This time, Djokovic was fully ready for it, and knew what he needed to do when the moment came.

Novak has shown that he added a little something extra to his formula in beating Nadal.

Agree completely. Most notably moving forward the moment Nadal is slightly out of position. Not letting Nadal get away with weak defensive shots that reset the point.

 

[veroniquem]

There are differences with last year that maybe not everyone has noticed. Last year, Djoko won M-C, sure, but after that his clay season was a disaster (1st round loss in Madrid and counterperf in Rome vs Berd). So he actually arrived at RG in crap form and with shaky confidence. Add to that emotional disarray due to former coach dying during RG and the conditions were far from ideal.
This year, he's arriving with optimum circumstances: he hasn't overplayed, he seems fit and he has the momentum.
Emotionally, he's in a good place, waiting for baby and all.
The main danger I see for Novak this year is not even Rafa at the end of the road (by now he knows how to play him and unlike 2013, he will arrive with 4 consecutive victories under his belt), it's the risk of feeling overconfident and losing before final (repeat of 2011). But with all his experience, I'm sure Djoko will be well aware of it.

 

[edk1512]

Having watched the last set and a half and highlights of the first set of yesterday's Rome final, it occurred to me that Nadal is going to find it hard to win at RG.... "IF" Nole brings that same form to the match consistently.

And "IF" Karlovic could put 150+ mph on his every first serve, he would be invincible :roll:

Best of five is a total different story. Novak couldn't match Rafa's athleticism in the last 2 years, although he beat him even more comfortably in last year's Monte Carlo than yesterday.

 

[Noleberic123]

I dont think so djokovic is playing much better since the us open . Djokovic in. 4 sets if this form keeps up

 

[SLD76]

There are differences with last year that maybe not everyone has noticed. Last year, Djoko won M-C, sure, but after that his clay season was a disaster (1st round loss in Madrid and counterperf in Rome vs Berd). So he actually arrived at RG in crap form and with shaky confidence. Add to that emotional disarray due to former coach dying during RG and the conditions were far from ideal.
This year, he's arriving with optimum circumstances: he hasn't overplayed, he seems fit and he has the momentum.
Emotionally, he's in a good place, waiting for baby and all.
The main danger I see for Novak this year is not even Rafa at the end of the road (by now he knows how to play him and unlike 2013, he will arrive with 4 consecutive victories under his belt), it's the risk of feeling overconfident and losing before final (repeat of 2011). But with all his experience, I'm sure Djoko will be well aware of it.

Again. Djoker has been the most consistent top player. Only one loss due to crap ( for him) form and that was against Fed in dubai, he may have beaten anyone else in the world that day.

Wawa was level 3 super saiyan when he beat djoker and he has not consistently kept that form.

Djoker most likely to reach the final based on the last few months of play.

 

[Deleted member 77403]

Again. Djoker has been the most consistent top player. Only one loss due to crap ( for him) form and that was against Fed in dubai, he may have beaten anyone else in the world that day.

Yes. Five Masters titles and the WTF title since the US Open. He's doing alright.

Wawa was level 3 super saiyan when he beat djoker and he has not consistently kept that form.

Yes, and we know Super Saiyan 3 can't be sustained for too long. Too much energy throughput, the body can't control it for too long.

Djoker most likely to reach the final based on the last few months of play.

Judging on form, I'd agree. But the road is long.

 

[veroniquem]

Again. Djoker has been the most consistent top player. Only one loss due to crap ( for him) form and that was against Fed in dubai, he may have beaten anyone else in the world that day.

Wawa was level 3 super saiyan when he beat djoker and he has not consistently kept that form.

Djoker most likely to reach the final based on the last few months of play.

Actually Rafa has been the most consistent player in 2014: 6 finals out of 9 events played vs only 3 for Djoko (half the events he played). The difference is that Djoko has won all the finals he's played, Rafa has won half and 2 of the 3 were minor events. So I would say Djoko has been the most successful but Nadal has been the most consistent. Hence: better odds for Djoko if he reaches the final but better odds for Nadal to make the final.

 

[pds999]

If djoker is healthy and plays like he did yesterday without any mental yips
...


Easy straight sets victory.

Nadal summoned some fight and amped his game, but nole had an answer for every plan of attack and all his defense.

Rubbish. Rafa has been off key for about 2 months now. He is gradually getting it back but isn't there yet. It depends which Rafa turns up. If the 5th set Rafa from last year's semi turns up then he'll win. If not then he won't. 80% won't cut it this year. He can't just hope Novak gives it away with errors like he did yesterday. He only hit like 6 winners all game?

 

[NatF]

No the 8 time champion who has only lost one match at the tournament in 9 years does not stand a chance.

 

[pds999]

Nadal will have a hard time beating god-mode Djoko. That said, hot and dry weather will help him a lot. If he gets that.
Remember 2012 and Djoko's 8 straight games? That was wet and rainy. The next day, iirc, the sun was back up and Nadal turned the 4th set around and broke twice.

So Nadal needs
a) weather favoring his style, i.e. bounce
b) to be more assertive and aggressive and
c) hope that god-mode Djoko stays at home.

But as you said in a different thread - it takes something special to dethrone a king.

I don't think the god mode thing really matters if Rafa is really on it. When Rafa hits with length and at full pelt like the 5th set last year, there isn't a lot anyone can do. Novak only enters god mode when Rafa is off a little and gives him the short ball. You can't do that to Rafa's A game with length, that's why Novak never beats him in Paris.

 

[veroniquem]

I get your outrage NatF but at the same time, that is exactly the argument Fed fans used about Fed at W 2008.
No domination lasts forever, no matter how extreme. The difficulty consists in trying to guess WHEN it will stop because there's never much doubt about the IF.

 

[NatF]

I get your outrage NatF but at the same time, that is exactly the argument Fed fans used about Fed at W 2008.
No domination lasts forever, no matter how extreme. The difficulty consists in trying to guess WHEN it will stop because there's never much doubt about the IF.

Djokovic probably has his best shot since 2011 to get the title, he's playing well going into the tournament and Nadal is noticeably off his game still. Plus he's got to feel confident with his string of wins which will help him if it gets tight - and might hinder Nadal. So I would agree Djokovic has a shot, a good one.

But Nadal should still be the favorite based on past history. I think it's 60-40 to Nadal right now.

I'm not really outraged, there's just too much BS and trolling sometimes. If someone wants to call Novak the favorite I will disagree but it's not entirely unreasonable, but giving Nadal virtually no chance? Madness.

 

[Russeljones]

I get your outrage NatF but at the same time, that is exactly the argument Fed fans used about Fed at W 2008.
No domination lasts forever, no matter how extreme. The difficulty consists in trying to guess WHEN it will stop because there's never much doubt about the IF.

What an outrageous comparison. Play should have been halted in 2008. Federer missed shots because he couldn't see the ball well. How is that relevant to the expectations of a Djokovic - Nadal final?

 

[veroniquem]

What an outrageous comparison. Play should have been halted in 2008. Federer missed shots because he couldn't see the ball well. How is that relevant to the expectations of a Djokovic - Nadal final?

LOl. Without the first rain delay, Nadal would even have won that final in straights. Let's not fool around with excuses.

 

[Chanwan]

I don't think the god mode thing really matters if Rafa is really on it. When Rafa hits with length and at full pelt like the 5th set last year, there isn't a lot anyone can do. Novak only enters god mode when Rafa is off a little and gives him the short ball. You can't do that to Rafa's A game with length, that's why Novak never beats him in Paris.

I disagree. Had Novak not run into the net, he would, imo, have won the 5th.
Moreover, how often have you seen Rafa hit 22 winners in a set? It's not exactly his standard game plan (he hit 15 in three sets yesterday), nor a mode he can enter at will.
Finally, if Novak is in 'god-mode', he's returning Rafa's serve at his shoelaces and serving pretty well himself --> in other words, he's controlling and dictating play and Rafa won't be able to wrestle back control (though he will probably try to be as aggressive as he can be).

 

[Chanwan]

Hot and dry won't matter if he can't get the ball past the service box.

He played with pretty great length at times yesterday.
And I'm not saying the weather will necessarily decide the match - just that Rafa thrives more in hot, dry weather, which he, as of now

@furryballs

doesn't seem to be getting:
http://www.worldweatheronline.com/Paris-weather/Ile-de-France/FR.aspx

 

[veroniquem]

Djokovic probably has his best shot since 2011 to get the title, he's playing well going into the tournament and Nadal is noticeably off his game still. Plus he's got to feel confident with his string of wins which will help him if it gets tight - and might hinder Nadal. So I would agree Djokovic has a shot, a good one.

But Nadal should still be the favorite based on past history. I think it's 60-40 to Nadal right now.

I'm not really outraged, there's just too much BS and trolling sometimes. If someone wants to call Novak the favorite I will disagree but it's not entirely unreasonable, but giving Nadal virtually no chance? Madness.

Yeah I think the bookmakers still have him as a favorite but by a small margin.

 

[Anti-Fedal]

He's 5-0 against Djokovic at RG. That should answer your question.

 

[bjsnider]

Murray and Djokovic's matches vs. Nadal at Rome were instructive of what they can do to Nadal. Both players can control Nadal's fearhand using their backhands, and deal with Nadal's backhand using their forehands. Both can turn the return game into an offensive advantage. But the one difference is Djokovic can control Nadal's backhand with is forehand more consistently than Murray -- and this may just be a mental hurdle Murray has yet to fully overcome. Murray's second serve is attackable, but I don't know how anyone attacks Djokovic. You just hope he's decided not to be his best that day.

 

[veroniquem]

He's 5-0 against Djokovic at RG. That should answer your question.

Sure but in 2012, Djoko took a set, 2013, he took 2, 2014? It could get tight. That's why I drew a possible parallel with W: 2006, Rafa took a set, 2007, he took 2, 2008, he won.
(of course, saying Nadal doesn't have a chance is ludicrous though).

 

[Anti-Fedal]

Sure but in 2012, Djoko took a set, 2013, he took 2, 2014? It could get tight. That's why I drew a possible parallel with W: 2006, Rafa took a set, 2007, he took 2, 2008, he won.
(of course, saying Nadal doesn't have a chance is ludicrous though).

I'd still back Nadal over a best of 5 set match on clay against Djokovic. Anyway he didn't seem too concerned with the loss yesterday probably because he was tired. RG is a completely different ball game to Rome/Madrid/MC.

 

[zam88]

The last time these guys played in a Grand Slam match on a surface that Djoker should be better on, Rafa won.

Djoker hasn't won a slam in a LONG time.

Pealing 3 sets off Rafa on clay has proved to be one of the toughest tasks in the history of tennis.

I dislike Rafa with a burning passion... but even though he clearly is looking more vulnerable on clay and on a tennis court in general than he has in a long time... he is still the holder of of 2 of the last 4 majors, won a masters on clay (even if a bit tainted) and made the final of the other one only to lose to the #2 player in the world.. and took a set off said player... I would still insert him as the favorite to win RG.

When there is still only 1 MAYBE 2 players that you think can beat Rafa on clay in a 5 set match..... well what if those players don't even make the final or SF?

What if Rafa gets a cake draw and someone like Ferrer or Federer is on the other side of the net in the final? Then how do you fancy Rafa's chances?

Yeah... the guy has looked much worse than usual and is still a favorite.