Federer 2002 vs Tsitsipas 2019

[Meles]

Fresh idea I stole from another poster @DSH

Fedly's finals:

Win	2–4	Jan 2002	Sydney International, Australia	International	Hard	Juan Ignacio Chela	6–3, 6–3
Loss	2–5	Feb 2002	Milan Indoor, Italy	International	Carpet (i)	Davide Sanguinetti	6–7(2–7), 6–4, 1–6
Loss	2–6	Mar 2002	Miami Open, USA	Masters	Hard	Andre Agassi	3–6, 3–6, 6–3, 4–6
Win	3–6	May 2002	German Open, Germany	Masters	Clay	Marat Safin	6–1, 6–3, 6–4

a couple QFs in Masters 1000s in 2002. Only R16 at slams (two QFs previous year)

Fed Stats:
Very impressive 53.0% points won on hard courts
67.4% serve points won hard courts
39.2% return points won hard courts
51.2% points won on clay
61.2% on serve points
41.9% on return clay points

Tsitsigoat finals so far:

Win	2–2	Feb 2019	Open 13, France	250 Series	Hard (i)	Mikhail Kukushkin	7–5, 7–6(7–5)
Loss	2–3	Mar 2019	Dubai Championships, UAE	500 Series	Hard	Roger Federer	4–6, 4–6
Win	3–3	May 2019	Estoril Open, Portugal	250 Series	Clay	Pablo Cuevas	6–3, 7–6(7–4)
Loss	3–4	May 2019	Madrid Open, Spain	Masters 1000	Clay	Novak Djokovic	3–6, 4–6
Loss	3–5	Oct 2019	China Open, Beijing	500 Series	Hard	Dominic Thiem	6–3, 4–6, 1–6

Not bad considering the year is not done. Beat Nadal in Madrid. Two more Masters SFs in 2019 plus beat Fed and made Australian Open SF.

Tsits stats:
Total hard court points won 51.3%
Hard court serve points 68.8%
Hard court return points won 34.1%
total clay court points won 52.7%
clay serve points won 64.8%
clay return points 40.7%

Really pretty comparable overall, but Tsitsipas has a huge return problem on hard courts right now with time to improve, but he needs to hit 39% within the next three seasons or may end up a Greek Roddick or more likely Sampras lite.

 

[Legend of Borg]

so by that logic Med would be like what Hewitt was to Fed

a temporary roadblock he will eventually
overcome

if hes even better that is which he hasnt shown so far

 

[DSH]

Keep your analysis, buddy.
You are doing great!

 

[Meles]

so by that logoc Med would be like what Hewitt was to Fed

a temporary roadblock he will eventually
overcome

if hes even better that is which he hasnt shown so far

Hewitt nearly same age as Fed. Mad Lad as Safin perhaps? Somehow though I think Safin is the one who wins.

 

[guitarra]

Great work, Meles!

 

[Legend of Borg]

i want Sisipass to become a great player, Med looks like a player i would love to see lose

 

[undecided]

Tsitsi needs a better clutch serve. He gives too many easy points on serve. Also he has patches where he sprays the ball going for winners. He needs more patience. I think more patience will come as he gets more fit and feels more comfortable hanging in points.

 

[King No1e]

Hewitt nearly same age as Fed. Mad Lad as Safin perhaps? Somehow though I think Safin is the one who wins.

I'm not sure that Medvedev will own Tsitsipas for eternity.
Right now it does look like Medvedev will be a clear #1 over Tsitsipas, but Stef's game is more well-rounded and multi-dimensional, which can develop into serious world-dominator material.
Not to mention he's 3 years younger than Dani.

 

[Legend of Borg]

I'm not sure that Medvedev will own Tsitsipas for eternity.
Right now it does look like Medvedev will be a clear #1 over Tsitsipas, but Stef's game is more well-rounded and multi-dimensional, which can develop into serious world-dominator material.
Not to mention he's 3 years younger than Dani.

yea the matchup has got a slight Fed-Hewitt kind of feel

hopefully he turns it around in 2020 and scores some wins against the Russian

he's my guy to root for along with Thiem and Shapo

I need these one handers to start stepping up big time!

 

[Poisoned Slice]

 

[Meles]

I'm not sure that Medvedev will own Tsitsipas for eternity.
Right now it does look like Medvedev will be a clear #1 over Tsitsipas, but Stef's game is more well-rounded and multi-dimensional, which can develop into serious world-dominator material.
Not to mention he's 3 years younger than Dani.

The big, big think Tsitsipas has going for him is serve. Might as well bring the Greek elephant into the room; Sampras 1992. Age 21 as well. Hard court stats:
53.6% serve points
68.3% on serve
39.2% on return

Tsitsipas at an impressive 68.8% on serve points won, but the return is way behind.

This is as far back as we can compare with points, but some slack has to be given Tsitsipas because he's not got a technology change helping him (Sampras) or one hurting his contemporaries (Fed adapted to Poly strings which is very impressive). So I wouldn't get too worried just yet for Tsitsipas on return and Shapo for that matter.

The problem with return is Tsitsipas may turn out to be a statistical Roddick with maybe a little weaker serve game, vastly better clay game, but the problem of not enough return game.

Let's roll out Roddick with gut strings like Sampras:
Roddick 2003:
53.8% points won
72.0% serve points (take that Sampras)
36.5% return points won (got the job done in 2003, peaked in 2004 and then the crash down which had a lot to do with Poly taking over off clay on tour). Roddick got in this neighborhood again on serve and return in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

Basically his return numbers are just marginal for a slam winner and that is the problem for Tsitsipas. Again we're comparing gut to poly at age 21, and then Roddick not adapting well to the Poly baseline game.

Let me think of a more contemporary player bred into the melee of a tour fully adapted to Poly strings. I'd prefer someone later than Cilic, .... might as well go for early Dimitrov....

Dimitrov hard return (4 months older than Stefanos) plus Federer, Sampras, and Shapovalov (4 months *******):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

Dimitrov:
age 21 hard court return 33.9%
age 22 35.6%
age 23 36.8%
age 24 37.2%
age 25 37.8%
and peak age 26, Dimitrov's fine 2017 hard court return points won....
38.5%


Stefanos a close call on return because somehow I don't think he'll dilly dally around like Dimitrov and peak at age 26 (Fed peaked at 25 and Sampras 23) but he should be able to hit the same number a few years earlier. On serve the better part of the Greek Connection (Kyrgios the other part) is miles and miles ahead of Dimitrov.

Serve points won with Federer, Sampras, and Medvedev (caution Medvedev's age 23 is 8 months older than the other three):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

So lots of hope for Stefanos with perhaps ultimately a better serve game than Federer and possibly Sampras married with a passable peak Dimitrov return game. He may fall just shy on return and it will hurt his hopes for double digit slams for sure if he's no better than Roddick in the end on return.

Most enjoyable stats dig @DSH

 

[Meles]

Tsitsi needs a better clutch serve. He gives too many easy points on serve. Also he has patches where he sprays the ball going for winners. He needs more patience. I think more patience will come as he gets more fit and feels more comfortable hanging in points.

Your very demanding, but the Tsitsbot already in Sampras territory at the same age on serve.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Fresh idea I stole from another poster @DSH

Fedly's finals:

Win	2–4	Jan 2002	Sydney International, Australia	International	Hard	Juan Ignacio Chela	6–3, 6–3
Loss	2–5	Feb 2002	Milan Indoor, Italy	International	Carpet (i)	Davide Sanguinetti	6–7(2–7), 6–4, 1–6
Loss	2–6	Mar 2002	Miami Open, USA	Masters	Hard	Andre Agassi	3–6, 3–6, 6–3, 4–6
Win	3–6	May 2002	German Open, Germany	Masters	Clay	Marat Safin	6–1, 6–3, 6–4

a couple QFs in Masters 1000s in 2002. Only R16 at slams (two QFs previous year)

Fed Stats:
Very impressive 53.0% points won on hard courts
67.4% serve points won hard courts
39.2% return points won hard courts
51.2% points won on clay
61.2% on serve points
41.9% on return clay points

Tsitsigoat finals so far:

Win	2–2	Feb 2019	Open 13, France	250 Series	Hard (i)	Mikhail Kukushkin	7–5, 7–6(7–5)
Loss	2–3	Mar 2019	Dubai Championships, UAE	500 Series	Hard	Roger Federer	4–6, 4–6
Win	3–3	May 2019	Estoril Open, Portugal	250 Series	Clay	Pablo Cuevas	6–3, 7–6(7–4)
Loss	3–4	May 2019	Madrid Open, Spain	Masters 1000	Clay	Novak Djokovic	3–6, 4–6
Loss	3–5	Oct 2019	China Open, Beijing	500 Series	Hard	Dominic Thiem	6–3, 4–6, 1–6

Not bad considering the year is not done. Beat Nadal in Madrid. Two more Masters SFs in 2019 plus beat Fed and made Australian Open SF.

Tsits stats:
Total hard court points won 51.3%
Hard court serve points 68.8%
Hard court return points won 34.1%
total clay court points won 52.7%
clay serve points won 64.8%
clay return points 40.7%

Really pretty comparable overall, but Tsitsipas has a huge return problem on hard courts right now with time to improve, but he needs to hit 39% within the next three seasons or may end up a Greek Roddick or more likely Sampras lite.

Interesting for sure. We do need to give these guys time with the new "GAS" theory. That being said, funny how you mentioned he beat Fed as we compare Feds stats from 17 years prior.

 

[DSH]

The big, big think Tsitsipas has going for him is serve. Might as well bring the Greek elephant into the room; Sampras 1992. Age 21 as well. Hard court stats:
53.6% serve points
68.3% on serve
39.2% on return

Tsitsipas at an impressive 68.8% on serve points won, but the return is way behind.

This is as far back as we can compare with points, but some slack has to be given Tsitsipas because he's not got a technology change helping him (Sampras) or one hurting his contemporaries (Fed adapted to Poly strings which is very impressive). So I wouldn't get too worried just yet for Tsitsipas on return and Shapo for that matter.

The problem with return is Tsitsipas may turn out to be a statistical Roddick with maybe a little weaker serve game, vastly better clay game, but the problem of not enough return game.

Let's roll out Roddick with gut strings like Sampras:
Roddick 2003:
53.8% points won
72.0% serve points (take that Sampras)
36.5% return points won (got the job done in 2003, peaked in 2004 and then the crash down which had a lot to do with Poly taking over off clay on tour). Roddick got in this neighborhood again on serve and return in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

Basically his return numbers are just marginal for a slam winner and that is the problem for Tsitsipas. Again we're comparing gut to poly at age 21, and then Roddick not adapting well to the Poly baseline game.

Let me think of a more contemporary player bred into the melee of a tour fully adapted to Poly strings. I'd prefer someone later than Cilic, but he'll do and might as well go for early Dimitrov....
Cilic:
2009 hard return points won, bah doing a graph by age:

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Marin Cilic

Marin Cilic profile at Ultimate Tennis Statistics

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

edit: hold on. Ugh. permalink to stats chart not working. Time to shutup and reboot.

Dimitrov hard return:
Well ultimate tennis linking is not working in my browser right now
so at age 21 (4 months older than Stefanos) we have 2012 as age 21:
age 21 hard court return 33.9%
age 22 35.6%
age 23 36.8%
age 24 37.2%
age 25 37.8%
and peak age 26, Dimitrov's fine 2017 hard court return points won....
38.5%


Stefanos a close call on return because somehow I don't think he'll dilly dally around like dimitrov and peak at age 26, but he should be able to hit the same number a few years earlier. Cilic had some injury issues and drug ban issue so his numbers not totally reliable, but with his two-handed backhand he was a much better returner at the same age. On serve the better part of the Greek Connection (Kyrgios the other part) is miles and miles ahead of Cilic and Dimitrov.

So lots of hope for Stefanos with perhaps ultimately a better serve game than Federer and possibly as good as Sampras married with a passable peak Dimitrov return game. He may fall just shy on return and it will hurt his hopes for double digit slams for sure if he's no better than Roddick in the end on return.

Most enjoyable stats dig @DSH

Do you see the Greek for great things on the grass and especially at Wimbledon?

 

[Meles]

Interesting for sure. We do need to give these guys time with the new "GAS" theory. That being said, funny how you mentioned he beat Fed as we compare Feds stats from 17 years prior.

Fed beat Oldpras at Wimbledon as well.

 

[Meles]

Do you see the Greek for great things on the grass and especially at Wimbledon?

Not until the returning gets better, ditto for Shapo.

 

[Meles]

I'm not sure that Medvedev will own Tsitsipas for eternity.
Right now it does look like Medvedev will be a clear #1 over Tsitsipas, but Stef's game is more well-rounded and multi-dimensional, which can develop into serious world-dominator material.
Not to mention he's 3 years younger than Dani.

I think the match up might actually be quite good for Tsits its just his return game is vastly inferior. Based on my stats digression above I'd say he might catch him in two years after a couple good jumps with his return game.

The Dimitrov return stats for one-handed backhand are interesting. One wonders if strength of arm delays one-handers from achieving better returning until a few years later than most players.

 

[Tommy Haas]

The big three are still around and playing near their top form. When Fed broke onto the scene Sampras and Agassi were already singing their swan songs. Breaking through today is tougher than back then. It should ease up after the big three retire, but Ttits, Med, and Zev would have already lost their early 20s years already to rack up wins. Plus Med and Zev's bodies aren't built for longevity. Tsits could last longer if he S&V'd more to keep points shorter since he doesn't have put away power like Thiem.

 

[Meles]

The big three are still around and playing near their top form. When Fed broke onto the scene Sampras and Agassi were already singing their swan songs. Breaking through today is tougher than back then. It should ease up after the big three retire, but Ttits, Med, and Zev would have already lost their early 20s years already to rack up wins. Plus Med and Zev's bodies aren't built for longevity. Tsits could last longer if he S&V'd more to keep points shorter since he doesn't have put away power like Thiem.

You took a credibility hit earlier today complaining Auz Open would rig draw so Federer on his own in one half and Medvedev in with Djokodal. Almost a lock for top 4 seeds unless Thiem goes bonkers in the next few weeks and knocks Fed down to 5.

Agassi was still viable when Fed broke in, but Oldpras was over the hill with his returning for some time and just his whole game. Breaking into the very top is harder today and winning majors, but the LostGen vacuum probably helps these young players too. I'm not sure I'd say they've lost their early 20's when Murray and Djokovic didn't really start win slams until the year they turned 24 and 25. (I'd argue Fed in early stages of mone at Auz Open gave Djoko a golden opportunity to get an early slam.) Still they did not break in until later and really we can mono the first Nadal Wimbledon and say his break out year off clay was in 2010 at age 24.

The current reality is that Medvedev is one of the older NextGen and is clicking into gear at age 23 to near his true potential. I see no reason that this won't be the case for the rest of the younger players.

I agree a bit on the longevity of taller players and we see Cilic in his 31st year faltering for sure, but Isner arguably was peak last year at an older age. I suspect all three players camps are well aware of your very valid fears for their health:
1. Zverev has Jez Green keeping him in fine health and quite a bit of play
2. Tsitsipas just is a smooth player who rarely tries to crush the ball and is very prone to feeling players out and raising his groundstroke velocity only if he's getting abused. I think he'll do extremely well.
3. Medvedev's flat efficient strokes seem also well "designed" for him in this sense.

Only Zverev ball bashes, but he's got the best trainer so he may be fine (or it may be starting to cause some niggling issues with serve lets say that are hard to detect right now other than with the final results). He's the one to watch and can't say Murray is a perfect specimen all things considered and a Jez Green client (probably one he saved).

 

[Meles]

@DSH post 11 updated with charts and more players for you to compare with Tsits. His serve game is actually tracking ahead of Federer and maybe even Sampras at the same age. Tsitsibot.

 

[Sudacafan]

Keep your analysis, buddy.
You are doing great!

So you’re not suing OP for stealing your idea?

 

[Nadal_Django]

Good serve, great forehand, shanking backhand, sore loser, arrogant demeanour, narcissistic tendencies, big nose... Yes, they are some similarities between them.

 

[DSH]

So you’re not suing OP for stealing your idea?

Tactics; execution!

 

[metsman]

Apart from Fed having the better serve, FH, BH, slice, return, volleys, footwork, speed, balance, anticipation they appear to be very similar. Good find @Meles!

 

[Meles]

Apart from Fed having the better serve, FH, BH, slice, return, volleys, footwork, speed, balance, anticipation they appear to be very similar. Good find @Meles!

It was a fail for the most part hehe, but Tsits has some hope for great serving and why not at nearly 4 inches taller?

On return he pails compared to Fed and his best hope is peak Dimitrov returning.

Frankly this was just me checking his progress for the year and sharing with others. Glad you enjoyed it.

You've reminded me that Felix is next on the chopping block.

 

[metsman]

It was a fail for the most part hehe, but Tsits has some hope for great serving and why not at nearly 4 inches taller?

On return he pails compared to Fed and his best hope is peak Dimitrov returning.

Frankly this was just me checking his progress for the year and sharing with others. Glad you enjoyed it.

You've reminded me that Felix is next on the chopping block.

Felix's serve and general play on the big points has killed him after the Miami breakout (killed him in the SF match against Isner)

 

[Meles]

Felix's serve and general play on the big points has killed him after the Miami breakout (killed him in the SF match against Isner)

He's looked quite flat lately. Time to take stock and Milan is coming; you're expected in Milan Pro Match thread.

 

[metsman]

He's looked quite flat lately. Time to take stock and Milan is coming; you're expected in Milan Pro Match thread.

Wild horses and peak Fed vs peak Sampras couldn't keep me away from the annual technically, mentally, and physically deficient short yellow bus exho.

 

[Krish0608]

Fresh idea I stole from another poster @DSH

Fedly's finals:

Win	2–4	Jan 2002	Sydney International, Australia	International	Hard	Juan Ignacio Chela	6–3, 6–3
Loss	2–5	Feb 2002	Milan Indoor, Italy	International	Carpet (i)	Davide Sanguinetti	6–7(2–7), 6–4, 1–6
Loss	2–6	Mar 2002	Miami Open, USA	Masters	Hard	Andre Agassi	3–6, 3–6, 6–3, 4–6
Win	3–6	May 2002	German Open, Germany	Masters	Clay	Marat Safin	6–1, 6–3, 6–4

a couple QFs in Masters 1000s in 2002. Only R16 at slams (two QFs previous year)

Fed Stats:
Very impressive 53.0% points won on hard courts
67.4% serve points won hard courts
39.2% return points won hard courts
51.2% points won on clay
61.2% on serve points
41.9% on return clay points

Tsitsigoat finals so far:

Win	2–2	Feb 2019	Open 13, France	250 Series	Hard (i)	Mikhail Kukushkin	7–5, 7–6(7–5)
Loss	2–3	Mar 2019	Dubai Championships, UAE	500 Series	Hard	Roger Federer	4–6, 4–6
Win	3–3	May 2019	Estoril Open, Portugal	250 Series	Clay	Pablo Cuevas	6–3, 7–6(7–4)
Loss	3–4	May 2019	Madrid Open, Spain	Masters 1000	Clay	Novak Djokovic	3–6, 4–6
Loss	3–5	Oct 2019	China Open, Beijing	500 Series	Hard	Dominic Thiem	6–3, 4–6, 1–6

Not bad considering the year is not done. Beat Nadal in Madrid. Two more Masters SFs in 2019 plus beat Fed and made Australian Open SF.

Tsits stats:
Total hard court points won 51.3%
Hard court serve points 68.8%
Hard court return points won 34.1%
total clay court points won 52.7%
clay serve points won 64.8%
clay return points 40.7%

Really pretty comparable overall, but Tsitsipas has a huge return problem on hard courts right now with time to improve, but he needs to hit 39% within the next three seasons or may end up a Greek Roddick or more likely Sampras lite.

I mostly agree with you. But did you see how Tsitsi returned against Novak? I think that's the best he's returned. If he does develop a solid return, he can really do more on the return games. Even though his serve numbers are up, he needs a better serve. Even in 2002, Fed had a formidable delivery. Tsitsipas' is alright, but needs a meatier first serve.

 

[Meles]

I mostly agree with you. But did you see how Tsitsi returned against Novak? I think that's the best he's returned. If he does develop a solid return, he can really do more on the return games. Even though his serve numbers are up, he needs a better serve. Even in 2002, Fed had a formidable delivery. Tsitsipas' is alright, but needs a meatier first serve.

Serve points won is fine for Tsits and if you see room for improvement in the actual serve then things looking very good for him. I need to check his post US Open numbers.....69.3% which is modest improvement over 68.8% considering the Chinese courts fairly fast.

 

[BGod]

Tsitsipas 2020 USO champ confirmed.

 

[mike danny]

The big three are still around and playing near their top form. When Fed broke onto the scene Sampras and Agassi were already singing their swan songs. Breaking through today is tougher than back then. It should ease up after the big three retire, but Ttits, Med, and Zev would have already lost their early 20s years already to rack up wins. Plus Med and Zev's bodies aren't built for longevity. Tsits could last longer if he S&V'd more to keep points shorter since he doesn't have put away power like Thiem.

I would still back up young Fed to break though in today's environment more than Tsits or other young players. Until I see them play a slam like 2003 Wimb for Fed, this comparison remains invalid.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

I was in Sydney and at the stadium for most of that 02 run. If you told me then Federer would go on to dominate the tour and win 20 slams I would have laughed. He was very gifted but still had flaws, mental and physical

 

[RelentlessAttack]

Tsitsipas’s big problem is his return game, and possibly weak mentality

 

[undecided]

The big, big think Tsitsipas has going for him is serve. Might as well bring the Greek elephant into the room; Sampras 1992. Age 21 as well. Hard court stats:
53.6% serve points
68.3% on serve
39.2% on return

Tsitsipas at an impressive 68.8% on serve points won, but the return is way behind.

This is as far back as we can compare with points, but some slack has to be given Tsitsipas because he's not got a technology change helping him (Sampras) or one hurting his contemporaries (Fed adapted to Poly strings which is very impressive). So I wouldn't get too worried just yet for Tsitsipas on return and Shapo for that matter.

The problem with return is Tsitsipas may turn out to be a statistical Roddick with maybe a little weaker serve game, vastly better clay game, but the problem of not enough return game.

Let's roll out Roddick with gut strings like Sampras:
Roddick 2003:
53.8% points won
72.0% serve points (take that Sampras)
36.5% return points won (got the job done in 2003, peaked in 2004 and then the crash down which had a lot to do with Poly taking over off clay on tour). Roddick got in this neighborhood again on serve and return in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

Basically his return numbers are just marginal for a slam winner and that is the problem for Tsitsipas. Again we're comparing gut to poly at age 21, and then Roddick not adapting well to the Poly baseline game.

Let me think of a more contemporary player bred into the melee of a tour fully adapted to Poly strings. I'd prefer someone later than Cilic, .... might as well go for early Dimitrov....

Dimitrov hard return (4 months older than Stefanos) plus Federer, Sampras, and Shapovalov (4 months *******):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

Dimitrov:
age 21 hard court return 33.9%
age 22 35.6%
age 23 36.8%
age 24 37.2%
age 25 37.8%
and peak age 26, Dimitrov's fine 2017 hard court return points won....
38.5%


Stefanos a close call on return because somehow I don't think he'll dilly dally around like Dimitrov and peak at age 26 (Fed peaked at 25 and Sampras 23) but he should be able to hit the same number a few years earlier. On serve the better part of the Greek Connection (Kyrgios the other part) is miles and miles ahead of Dimitrov.

Serve points won with Federer, Sampras, and Medvedev (caution Medvedev's age 23 is 8 months older than the other three):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

So lots of hope for Stefanos with perhaps ultimately a better serve game than Federer and possibly Sampras married with a passable peak Dimitrov return game. He may fall just shy on return and it will hurt his hopes for double digit slams for sure if he's no better than Roddick in the end on return.

Most enjoyable stats dig @DSH

This is not baseball, you can't go by stats only. Tsitsi loses serve points on crucial points. So a good metric stat maybe would be BP saved? Do you have that?

 

[Meles]

This is not baseball, you can't go by stats only. Tsitsi loses serve points on crucial points. So a good metric stat maybe would be BP saved? Do you have that?

Actually the most reliable long term metric is points, not break points or games won. But I have the stat. Breakpoints saved is 66.2% to 68.8% for 2019. This is not terrible as most players for their career break better than they save. Tsits career shows a 4% spread so far which is Berdych class bad or worse so far. Don't see obvious signs of choking like Bendy, but something must be breaking down. Federer for his career is 68.0% on BP and 69.7% on regular serve points, so Tsits 1.6% differential acceptable for 2019.
Here are numbers for all the top hard court players since 1991:

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/hard-court-handbook.571833/

 

[undecided]

Actually the most reliable long term metric is points, not break points or games won. But I have the stat. Breakpoints saved is 66.2% to 68.8% for 2019. This is not terrible as most players for their career break better than they save. Tsits career shows a 4% spread so far which is Berdych class bad or worse so far. Don't see obvious signs of choking like Bendy, but something must be breaking down. Federer for his career is 68.0% on BP and 69.7% on regular serve points, so Tsits 1.6% differential acceptable for 2019.
Here are numbers for all the top hard court players since 1991:

https://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/index.php?threads/hard-court-handbook.571833/

Thx, I go purely by what I see and I see him throwing points away in bunches on occasion and he gets broken. It seems that he is not comfortable with his serve yet. I've always suggested that he should go spend xmas holiday with Pete and get some pointers from the man.

 

[Meles]

Thx, I go purely by what I see and I see him throwing points away in bunches on occasion and he gets broken. It seems that he is not comfortable with his serve yet. I've always suggested that he should go spend xmas holiday with Pete and get some pointers from the man.

Science vs vudu. Overall you're on to something. Before this year he was losing serve more than he should based on points won. In 2019 he's middle of the pack. But, that probably varies from tournament to tournament so when Tsits is going down in flames it may be because of what you've identified. When he's winning and going deep, he's probably saving more break points than regular serve points.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

The big, big think Tsitsipas has going for him is serve. Might as well bring the Greek elephant into the room; Sampras 1992. Age 21 as well. Hard court stats:
53.6% serve points
68.3% on serve
39.2% on return

Tsitsipas at an impressive 68.8% on serve points won, but the return is way behind.

This is as far back as we can compare with points, but some slack has to be given Tsitsipas because he's not got a technology change helping him (Sampras) or one hurting his contemporaries (Fed adapted to Poly strings which is very impressive). So I wouldn't get too worried just yet for Tsitsipas on return and Shapo for that matter.

The problem with return is Tsitsipas may turn out to be a statistical Roddick with maybe a little weaker serve game, vastly better clay game, but the problem of not enough return game.

Let's roll out Roddick with gut strings like Sampras:
Roddick 2003:
53.8% points won
72.0% serve points (take that Sampras)
36.5% return points won (got the job done in 2003, peaked in 2004 and then the crash down which had a lot to do with Poly taking over off clay on tour). Roddick got in this neighborhood again on serve and return in 2006, 2008, and 2009.

Basically his return numbers are just marginal for a slam winner and that is the problem for Tsitsipas. Again we're comparing gut to poly at age 21, and then Roddick not adapting well to the Poly baseline game.

Let me think of a more contemporary player bred into the melee of a tour fully adapted to Poly strings. I'd prefer someone later than Cilic, .... might as well go for early Dimitrov....

Dimitrov hard return (4 months older than Stefanos) plus Federer, Sampras, and Shapovalov (4 months *******):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

Dimitrov:
age 21 hard court return 33.9%
age 22 35.6%
age 23 36.8%
age 24 37.2%
age 25 37.8%
and peak age 26, Dimitrov's fine 2017 hard court return points won....
38.5%


Stefanos a close call on return because somehow I don't think he'll dilly dally around like Dimitrov and peak at age 26 (Fed peaked at 25 and Sampras 23) but he should be able to hit the same number a few years earlier. On serve the better part of the Greek Connection (Kyrgios the other part) is miles and miles ahead of Dimitrov.

Serve points won with Federer, Sampras, and Medvedev (caution Medvedev's age 23 is 8 months older than the other three):

Ultimate Tennis Statistics - Statistics Chart

Compare tennis players via statistics figures charts with various filters

www.ultimatetennisstatistics.com

So lots of hope for Stefanos with perhaps ultimately a better serve game than Federer and possibly Sampras married with a passable peak Dimitrov return game. He may fall just shy on return and it will hurt his hopes for double digit slams for sure if he's no better than Roddick in the end on return.

Most enjoyable stats dig @DSH

I think you are too optimistic about Stefanos' return game. He is way down at no. 49 on the return leaderboard for last 52 weeks. Where's Daniil? Way up there at no.4 (beaten only by Rafa, Nole and Diego). On the serve leaderboard, Stefanos is no.13 while Daniil is no.17. Overall, Daniil is close to 115 serve plus return (not far from the magic number of 120) while Stefanos is at 105. AZ is similar to Stefanos, only that he is much better on the return and quite a long way behind on serve. This number alone encapsulates why Daniil has already finished higher at slams than either and why he is on a roll now - that he is a full 10 points ahead of Stefanos and AZ in serve plus return.

While comparing with apparent parallels from the past is useful, it gets misleading if we ignore the DIFFERENCES between those past players and the present. Petros was a better returner and a better athlete than Stefanos. So was Roger and I dare say he STILL doesn't particularly look slouchy up against the young crowd. Likewise, Daniil's movement is amazing for somebody so tall. So is his ability to hang on in long rallies and grind out points. In essence, he has the height of Safin, allowing him to serve big, while also having a more Hewitt-like game style, forcing others to take the game to him (where say Karen goes too big and ends up underachieving). When people claim it is a matter of time before Stefanos matures and starts beating Daniil the way Roger turned it around with Lleyton, they ignore the fact that Roger was just built better than his then bete-noire so as he grew to his physical peak, he could overpower Lleyton. That is not going to happen in the case of Stefanos v/s Daniil. Nor is Stefanos losing to Daniil ONLY because he lacks consistency. He also finds it hard to attack Daniil's serve which was not a problem for Roger against Lleyton.

Bottomline: The amount of improvement Stefanos needs at this point to get to the magic number where good things historically have happened at the slams is much more than it is for Daniil. Actually, at a 115, Daniil could already get it done with a good draw and clutch serving. He wasn't far off in his very first slam final and that up against the guy who is on top of the return leaderboard this year. As things stand, he would probably make mincemeat of AZ or Stefanos in a slam final. Of course, this could change but it may not necessarily go in the direction of those who might rate Brian Su 3.5 based off how his strokes look, let's put it that way.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Thx, I go purely by what I see and I see him throwing points away in bunches on occasion and he gets broken. It seems that he is not comfortable with his serve yet. I've always suggested that he should go spend xmas holiday with Pete and get some pointers from the man.

You're not completely wrong to. The problem with @Meles is he often uses numbers that are too BIG for purpose. For eg, it would make more sense to look at how clutch Stefanos is in terms of both saving and converting breakpoints in big matches. When you take the numbers for an entire career, it includes all sorts of weak opponents against whom he might be soaring on serve. As a point to bolster my argument, it's not against everyone that Fed actually fails to serve out from match point, but it's happened twice against Djokovic. All matches, all opponents are NOT equal in tennis.

 

[mike danny]

The big three are still around and playing near their top form. When Fed broke onto the scene Sampras and Agassi were already singing their swan songs. Breaking through today is tougher than back then. It should ease up after the big three retire, but Ttits, Med, and Zev would have already lost their early 20s years already to rack up wins. Plus Med and Zev's bodies aren't built for longevity. Tsits could last longer if he S&V'd more to keep points shorter since he doesn't have put away power like Thiem.

Agassi singing his swan song? He was the same age Nadal is today and was still strong the following 2 years.

 

[HetTheGreaterer]

I think you are too optimistic about Stefanos' return game. He is way down at no. 49 on the return leaderboard for last 52 weeks. Where's Daniil? Way up there at no.4 (beaten only by Rafa, Nole and Diego). On the serve leaderboard, Stefanos is no.13 while Daniil is no.17. Overall, Daniil is close to 115 serve plus return (not far from the magic number of 120) while Stefanos is at 105. AZ is similar to Stefanos, only that he is much better on the return and quite a long way behind on serve. This number alone encapsulates why Daniil has already finished higher at slams than either and why he is on a roll now - that he is a full 10 points ahead of Stefanos and AZ in serve plus return.

While comparing with apparent parallels from the past is useful, it gets misleading if we ignore the DIFFERENCES between those past players and the present. Petros was a better returner and a better athlete than Stefanos. So was Roger and I dare say he STILL doesn't particularly look slouchy up against the young crowd. Likewise, Daniil's movement is amazing for somebody so tall. So is his ability to hang on in long rallies and grind out points. In essence, he has the height of Safin, allowing him to serve big, while also having a more Hewitt-like game style, forcing others to take the game to him (where say Karen goes too big and ends up underachieving). When people claim it is a matter of time before Stefanos matures and starts beating Daniil the way Roger turned it around with Lleyton, they ignore the fact that Roger was just built better than his then bete-noire so as he grew to his physical peak, he could overpower Lleyton. That is not going to happen in the case of Stefanos v/s Daniil. Nor is Stefanos losing to Daniil ONLY because he lacks consistency. He also finds it hard to attack Daniil's serve which was not a problem for Roger against Lleyton.

Bottomline: The amount of improvement Stefanos needs at this point to get to the magic number where good things historically have happened at the slams is much more than it is for Daniil. Actually, at a 115, Daniil could already get it done with a good draw and clutch serving. He wasn't far off in his very first slam final and that up against the guy who is on top of the return leaderboard this year. As things stand, he would probably make mincemeat of AZ or Stefanos in a slam final. Of course, this could change but it may not necessarily go in the direction of those who might rate Brian Su 3.5 based off how his strokes look, let's put it that way.

Excellent analysis..
Only thing I don't agree with is the movement of daniil being equalilateral to Leyton. Nope man, it's not even close..

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Excellent analysis..
Only thing I don't agree with is the movement of daniil being equalilateral to Leyton. Nope man, it's not even close..

Never said his movement is anything like Hewitt. Don't know where you got that even, only said he too relies on grinding the opponent rather than taking big cuts early in a point.

 

[mike danny]

Never said his movement is anything like Hewitt. Don't know where you got that even, only said he too relies on grinding the opponent rather than taking big cuts early in a point.

Hewitt kinda changed that in 2005 though.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Hewitt kinda changed that in 2005 though.

Let's not get too deep into the comparison. My point was only to say that Medvedev is not the Safin of his generation. Neither the power nor the impatience.

 

[mike danny]

Let's not get too deep into the comparison. My point was only to say that Medvedev is not the Safin of his generation. Neither the power nor the impatience.

Nor the womanizer.

 

[Meles]

I think you are too optimistic about Stefanos' return game. He is way down at no. 49 on the return leaderboard for last 52 weeks. Where's Daniil? Way up there at no.4 (beaten only by Rafa, Nole and Diego). On the serve leaderboard, Stefanos is no.13 while Daniil is no.17. Overall, Daniil is close to 115 serve plus return (not far from the magic number of 120) while Stefanos is at 105. AZ is similar to Stefanos, only that he is much better on the return and quite a long way behind on serve. This number alone encapsulates why Daniil has already finished higher at slams than either and why he is on a roll now - that he is a full 10 points ahead of Stefanos and AZ in serve plus return.

While comparing with apparent parallels from the past is useful, it gets misleading if we ignore the DIFFERENCES between those past players and the present. Petros was a better returner and a better athlete than Stefanos. So was Roger and I dare say he STILL doesn't particularly look slouchy up against the young crowd. Likewise, Daniil's movement is amazing for somebody so tall. So is his ability to hang on in long rallies and grind out points. In essence, he has the height of Safin, allowing him to serve big, while also having a more Hewitt-like game style, forcing others to take the game to him (where say Karen goes too big and ends up underachieving). When people claim it is a matter of time before Stefanos matures and starts beating Daniil the way Roger turned it around with Lleyton, they ignore the fact that Roger was just built better than his then bete-noire so as he grew to his physical peak, he could overpower Lleyton. That is not going to happen in the case of Stefanos v/s Daniil. Nor is Stefanos losing to Daniil ONLY because he lacks consistency. He also finds it hard to attack Daniil's serve which was not a problem for Roger against Lleyton.

Bottomline: The amount of improvement Stefanos needs at this point to get to the magic number where good things historically have happened at the slams is much more than it is for Daniil. Actually, at a 115, Daniil could already get it done with a good draw and clutch serving. He wasn't far off in his very first slam final and that up against the guy who is on top of the return leaderboard this year. As things stand, he would probably make mincemeat of AZ or Stefanos in a slam final. Of course, this could change but it may not necessarily go in the direction of those who might rate Brian Su 3.5 based off how his strokes look, let's put it that way.

All very true Tsits's best prospect is to develop a serve better than Federer and Sampras (sounds all too much like Roddick) and couple that with Sampras clutch returning. The issue for Stefanos is he may be clutch on return like Sampras, but his overall stats are very likely to be on par with Roddick. Stefanos doesn't have a game that feels like Roddick's, but the numbers say he'd be lucky to have Roddick's prime stats.

All you say is true, but a bigger serve for Tsitsipas might get him the upset of the Mad Lad there and there. If he's able to hold serve against Medvedev he's very much in the match.

Goatsipas just turned 21 so we don't know for sure his ultimate return level, but we can be assured he's no Djokoray returner or even a Mederer at this point.

 

[Meles]

You're not completely wrong to. The problem with @Meles is he often uses numbers that are too BIG for purpose. For eg, it would make more sense to look at how clutch Stefanos is in terms of both saving and converting breakpoints in big matches. When you take the numbers for an entire career, it includes all sorts of weak opponents against whom he might be soaring on serve. As a point to bolster my argument, it's not against everyone that Fed actually fails to serve out from match point, but it's happened twice against Djokovic. All matches, all opponents are NOT equal in tennis.

I'd give Djokovic all the credit and Fed very little blame.

Too BIG? The clutch stuff is largely nonsense in the long run as are the rest of your subjective examples.

Labeling Tsitsipas some kind of choker is pretty much nonsense. Chokers don't beat the Big 3 playing at a strong level all in one year.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Nor the womanizer.

Hahahaha

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I'd give Djokovic all the credit and Fed very little blame.

Too BIG? The clutch stuff is largely nonsense in the long run as are the rest of your subjective examples.

Labeling Tsitsipas some kind of choker is pretty much nonsense. Chokers don't beat the Big 3 playing at a strong level all in one year.

I will rephrase it so you can understand. When I say too BIG, I mean aggregate numbers do not capture the moments when pressure is greatest. I am not saying he is necessarily a choker. But before you tut tut at another poster for voodooing, start using precise numbers that actually support your assertion. Otherwise you're just fishing for a number that suits your gut feel. IF we looked at masters semis and finals or slam matches against the top 10, we would have a better idea of how Stefanos fares under pressure. There is nothing subjective about clutch the way I have defined it. It's actually an ATP metric now and they simply call it "Under Pressure'. And all I am saying is focus on the BIG matches if you really want a meaningful number. Saving all break points against say rank 50 doesn't tell you much about a player's ability to handle pressure.