Federer needs 1 thing to happen to win slams again...

[tennis_pro]

He needs Murray to throw off Nadal from his no 2 spot in the rankings. With Djokovic ranked no 1, Murray 2nd, Nadal 3rd and Federer 4th potential Djokovic-Nadal and Federer-Murray semis in slams could occur. In this case we'd probably see a Federer-Djokovic final and Rog could swing more freely knowning Nadal's not waiting in the next round. It's about a 50/50 call as far as Federer-Djokovic meetings in slams are concerned nowadays.

Imagine if Murray actually won Paris + WTF and finished the year ranked no 2 ahead of Nadal. This forum would go crazy till the Australian Open starts...

 

[ark_28]

He needs Murray to throw off Nadal from his no 2 spot in the rankings. With Djokovic ranked no 1, Murray 2nd, Nadal 3rd and Federer 4th potential Djokovic-Nadal and Federer-Murray semis in slams could occur. In this case we'd probably see a Federer-Djokovic final and Rog could swing more freely knowning Nadal's not waiting in the next round. It's about a 50/50 call as far as Federer-Djokovic meetings in slams are concerned nowadays.

Imagine if Murray actually won Paris + WTF and finished the year ranked no 2 ahead of Nadal. This forum would go crazy till the Australian Open starts...

I could not agree more was saying the same thing just last night to my coach!

Murray gets to number 2 suddenly Federer doesnt have to beat two of the great in the same tournament but just one of them.

While Murray has beaten Federer in Masters you always feel Roger backs himself against Murray in a major, then he would be totally fresh to take on Novak!

 

[OTMPut]

2012. a whole new season. djoker beating rafa is not a given. so is fed beating murray.

heck, top 4 in semis is not a given.

 

[OTMPut]

one cool scenario is fed plays someone outside top 4 or 10 in a GS final. some hot hand decimating djoker/nadal. tsonga is capable, so is berdych, so is soderling.

 

[ark_28]

2012. a whole new season. djoker beating rafa is not a given. so is fed beating murray.

heck, top 4 in semis is not a given.

Fair point! but while it is a new season a major is a major! and there are still huge question marks about Murray in the latter stages of majors against the big 3! So there is bo doubt that Federer would far rather face Murray than the two guys ahead of him!

 

[tennis_pro]

I could not agree more was saying the same thing just last night to my coach!

Murray gets to number 2 suddenly Federer doesnt have to beat two of the great in the same tournament but just one of them.

While Murray has beaten Federer in Masters you always feel Roger backs himself against Murray in a major, then he would be totally fresh to take on Novak!

I always thought that Federer's major problem was not his form cause he's still a great player at 30 years of age but the fact that he has to beat both Djokovic and Nadal to win a slam these days. In 3 out of the 4 slams (with AO the only exception) Federer is favored to win, even more so when there's no Nadal in the final.

So the only way Fed can win slams is either Nadal not reaching finals or him being in the same half of the draw with Djokovic.

Go Murray!

 

[tennis_pro]

2012. a whole new season. djoker beating rafa is not a given. so is fed beating murray.

heck, top 4 in semis is not a given.

Yea yea there has been a new season each year since 2008 and guess what we see Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray in the year-end-top-4 ever since. I don't believe in fairly tales. It's not the 1990's where guys like (with all respect) Rafter, Muster, Rios or Moya could reach the no 1 spot.

Apart from Del Potro in the US open final back in 2009 where he barely beat Federer, there have only been 3 players to win slams since 2005 FO, that's right Federer, Nadal and Djokovic.

No-one is going to spoil the party.

 

[ark_28]

I always thought that Federer's major problem was not his form cause he's still a great player at 30 years of age but the fact that he has to beat both Djokovic and Nadal to win a slam these days. In 3 out of the 4 slams (with AO the only exception) Federer is favored to win, even more so when there's no Nadal in the final.

So the only way Fed can win slams is either Nadal not reaching finals or him being in the same half of the draw with Djokovic.

Go Murray!

Totally agree Fed's level this year has still been outstanding!

Let's have some perspective! He is the only guy to beat Novak in a major and Novak has had what some including Sampras say the greatest year in tennis history!

He could and probably should also have beaten him at the US Open and was so close! That lose was more a mental thing because anytime you go up 2 sets to love and have match points you know you are good enough to win!

Seeing as how Murray played his respective Semi final v Nadal I have reason to believe that had Federer played Murray in the semi that day he would have won in 3 maybe 4 sets and been fresh to play Rafa in the final!

 

[celoft]

He needs Murray to throw off Nadal from his no 2 spot in the rankings. With Djokovic ranked no 1, Murray 2nd, Nadal 3rd and Federer 4th potential Djokovic-Nadal and Federer-Murray semis in slams could occur. In this case we'd probably see a Federer-Djokovic final and Rog could swing more freely knowning Nadal's not waiting in the next round. It's about a 50/50 call as far as Federer-Djokovic meetings in slams are concerned nowadays.

Imagine if Murray actually won Paris + WTF and finished the year ranked no 2 ahead of Nadal. This forum would go crazy till the Australian Open starts...

I concur...

 

[LuckyR]

Yeah, he needs for Nole and Rafa to retire first...

 

[glazkovss]

He needs Murray to throw off Nadal from his no 2 spot in the rankings. With Djokovic ranked no 1, Murray 2nd, Nadal 3rd and Federer 4th potential Djokovic-Nadal and Federer-Murray semis in slams could occur. In this case we'd probably see a Federer-Djokovic final and Rog could swing more freely knowning Nadal's not waiting in the next round. It's about a 50/50 call as far as Federer-Djokovic meetings in slams are concerned nowadays.

Imagine if Murray actually won Paris + WTF and finished the year ranked no 2 ahead of Nadal. This forum would go crazy till the Australian Open starts...

Doesn't have any sense. The semifinals line-up could remain the same: Djok-Fed, Murray-Rafa.
If you want it to be Rafa-Djok, Fed-Murray then Rafa and Murray have to be top2 in the world. In that case Fed will either draw Rafa or Murray in the SF.

 

[tennis_pro]

Doesn't have any sense. The semifinals line-up could remain the same: Djok-Fed, Murray-Rafa.
If you want it to be Rafa-Djok, Fed-Murray then Rafa and Murray have to be top2 in the world. In that case Fed will either draw Rafa or Murray in the SF.

If we follow this ranking:
1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Nadal
4. Federer

There's actually a possibility of a Federer-Murray and Nadal-Djokovic match-up which is not the case considering the current rankings, Fed can meet either Nadal or Djokovic in the semis, NOT Murray.

 

[Tough Gut]

They could make nadal and djoko in different sides of draw like they are doing with fed and nadal

 

[tenniselbow1]

If Murray performs well after the AO and before the clay court season, can nadal drop to number 3? Can't see Nadal gaining any points at all next year, things will get worse, others need to capitalize.

 

[Lawn Tennis]

If Murray performs well after the AO and before the clay court season, can nadal drop to number 3? Can't see Nadal gaining any points at all next year, things will get worse, others need to capitalize.

but Nadal could end up with another clay court sweep like in 2010

 

[tennisenthusiast]

but Nadal could end up with another clay court sweep like in 2010

gone are those days.

 

[Homeboy Hotel]

Murray will only become World Number 2 this year IF...

- He wins Paris (1000) and London (1500)
- Nadal (who never played Paris last year, goes out in R1)
- Nadal does not get to the SF of London


So all in all, pretty impossible I'd say. Nadal getting to the SF of London is a lock, and I'd say its a very slim chance of him loosing in R1 of Paris if he decides to play this year. However, if Murray can win Australia next year and actually pick up some wins during Dubai/Rotterdam/Indian Wells/Miami then we could easily see a new Number 2 going into European-clay stretch 2012.

 

[Tammo]

Fed still has become more vulnerable in the earlier in the tourneys. The ranks and draw of the tourneys doesn't decide who will be the winner.

 

[Towser83]

Murray will only become World Number 2 this year IF...

- He wins Paris (1000) and London (1500)
- Nadal (who never played Paris last year, goes out in R1)
- Nadal does not get to the SF of London


So all in all, pretty impossible I'd say. Nadal getting to the SF of London is a lock, and I'd say its a very slim chance of him loosing in R1 of Paris if he decides to play this year. However, if Murray can win Australia next year and actually pick up some wins during Dubai/Rotterdam/Indian Wells/Miami then we could easily see a new Number 2 going into European-clay stretch 2012.

You can miss out on the semis of the WTF with only one loss as Djokovic did in 2009 I think, and Murray also did. So Nadal could lose against Murray or Federer in his group (surely one of those guys will be in his group as they are 3 and 4) but I don't see him losing first round of Paris.

Murray might have the chance to overtake Nadal next year after Miami if he finsihes this year well and Nadal doesn't. In Australia Murray is defending a final and Nadal only a quarter final and I don't see him falling before the quarters so unless Murray wins Nadal should stretch his lead, but there's a fair few points up for grabs in IW/Miami with nadal in the finals of both and Murray out in his first match I think.

A strange thing could happen if Murray gets the number 2 before RG, Nadal as number 3 meets Djokovic in the semis of RG and gets beaten, Federer beats Murray on clay - all of a sudden Federer does have a decent shot at a second career slam, Novak has a great shot at his first.

 

[Tony48]

I honestly believe that Murray could beat Federer in a slam semi.
There would undoubtedly be less pressure on him.

 

[Tammo]

.

A strange thing could happen if Murray gets the number 2 before RG, Nadal as number 3 meets Djokovic in the semis of RG and gets beaten, Federer beats Murray on clay - all of a sudden Federer does have a decent shot at a second career slam, Novak has a great shot at his first.

You have good point there, Nadal can gain in Australia if he can get past the semis. After that he will just want to get to the finals of IW, Miami, Rome, and Madrid. Murray has a final in Australia, and I could see him losing points there. After that he lost in the first round of IW and Miami. You could be right about Murray getting no.2 before RG.

 

[NadalAgassi]

Several things needed to remember:

-Djokovic went 4-1 vs Federer this year. Things will only get even harder for Federer has ventures into his 30s for the first time. Why anyone would think his chances vs Djokovic in the future are more than slight is hard to understand.

-Whether Federer still owns Murray in slams will not be certain until they play in one again (if they ever do that is). Federer has already considerably weakened since the 2008 U.S Open and 2010 Australian Open which was the beginning and end of a 4 for 6 slams won stretch, including all 4 different slams. Murray might be slowly but surely getting over his stage fright issues too. Not to mention in his semi he doesnt typically dissapoint badly as a final.

-Federer can easily lose before the semis. He has lost in the quarters of 3 of his last 7 slams, and like mentioned earlier it will only get harder as he continues to age. Any very good power hitter on their game (eg- Berdych, Tsonga, Soderling, Del Potro, even Cilic) Federer is gone, since he cant seem to handle power well anymore. Good news for him is all these guys are erratic but at this point when he plays that kind of player, the match is out of his hands.

-Murray passing Nadal as the #2 is still unlikely to happen anytime soon. Before the end of the year is extremely unlikely, Murray actually did better in Australia and it wont even be easy to mantain that when Nadal has outperformed him at 6 of the last 7 slams, and Nadal will likely continue to gain far more points from the clay season than Murray is capable of.

 

[Tammo]

Several things needed to remember:

-Djokovic went 4-1 vs Federer this year. Things will only get even harder for Federer has ventures into his 30s for the first time. Why anyone would think his chances vs Djokovic in the future are more than slight is hard to understand.

-Whether Federer still owns Murray in slams will not be certain until they play in one again (if they ever do that is). Federer has already considerably weakened since the 2008 U.S Open and 2010 Australian Open which was the beginning and end of a 4 for 6 slams won stretch, including all 4 different slams. Murray might be slowly but surely getting over his stage fright issues too. Not to mention in his semi he doesnt typically dissapoint badly as a final.

-Federer can easily lose before the semis. He has lost in the quarters of 3 of his last 7 slams, and like mentioned earlier it will only get harder as he continues to age.

-Murray passing Nadal as the #2 is still unlikely to happen anytime soon. Before the end of the year is extremely unlikely, Murray actually did better in Australia and it wont even be easy to mantain that when Nadal has outperformed him at 6 of the last 7 slams, and Nadal will likely continue to gain far more points from the clay season than Murray is capable of.

+1

I honestly think Fed will drop out of the top 4, and be replaced by maybe JMDP or even Tsonga. JMDP is already back in the top 15 and doesn't have a lot of points untill IW.

 

[stringertom]

The OP title led me to believe this would be a discussion of action taken by Fed to cross the finish line a 17th time...for example, work with a sports psychologist or a proven "closer" from another era or even another sport. He did everything but win in Flushing SF and, IMO, would have had enough to beat Rafa on HC. He also was very close at RG. He should have taken Tsonga in Wimby QF and, again IMO, would have challenged for the title. CLOSE, CLOSE, CLOSE! That's all he needs to do.

 

[raphMODE]

I understood that #1 is on top of the draw, #2 at the bottom, and #3 and #4 are randomly placed on top or at bottom...
Is it right, or is there a define place for #3-4 ???
–

 

[TopFH]

I understood that #1 is on top of the draw, #2 at the bottom, and #3 and #4 are randomly placed on top or at bottom...
Is it right, or is there a define place for #3-4 ???
–

Judging from the last I-don't-know-how-many slams, it was basically 1-3 and 2-4. Now it will be 1-4 and 2-3.

 

[vernonbc]

I understood that #1 is on top of the draw, #2 at the bottom, and #3 and #4 are randomly placed on top or at bottom...
Is it right, or is there a define place for #3-4 ???

Judging from the last I-don't-know-how-many slams, it was basically 1-3 and 2-4. Now it will be 1-4 and 2-3.

raphMODE, you are correct. #3 and #4 are random placements.

TopFH, it hasn't necessarily been 1-3 and 2-4. All the top 3 and 4 moved up and down the rankings. It really has been just random chance that resulting in the matchups that occurred. In the last eight slams, five times it was #1/#4 and three times #1/#3.

2011 AO - #1 Rafa/#4 Soderling (Murray #5).... #2 Fed/#3 Nole
2011 FO - #1 Rafa/#4 Murray.... #2 Nole/#3 Fed
2011 WB - #1 Rafa/#4 Murray.... #2 Nole/#3 Fed
2011 US - #1 Nole/#3 Fed .... #2 Rafa/#4 Murray

2010 AO - #1 Fed/#3 Nole.... #2 Rafa/#4 Delpo (Murray #5)
2010 FO - #1 Fed/#4 Murray.... #2 Rafa/#3 Nole
2010 WB - #1Fed/#3 Nole .... #2 Rafa/#4 Murray
2010 US - #1 Rafa/#4 Murray.... #2 Fed/#3 Nole

 

[Towser83]

the thing is with 3 being in the same half as 1 so many times, NOW maybe it will change right - I mean it can't be 1 and 3 every slam forever so about time it changes to 1 and 4... but now Federer is 4...so it's Djokovic Federer AGAIN AHHHHHHHHHHHHH

 

[vernonbc]

the thing is with 3 being in the same half as 1 so many times, NOW maybe it will change right - I mean it can't be 1 and 3 every slam forever so about time it changes to 1 and 4... but now Federer is 4...so it's Djokovic Federer AGAIN AHHHHHHHHHHHHH

Did you read what I posted? #3 hasn't been in the same half as #1 'so many times'. It has been 1 vs 4 more often. It's the player's ranking that changes. After I posted 2011 and 2010 I went and checked 2009 too. It was evenly split that year with 1 vs 3 at the French and Wimbledon and 1 vs 4 at the AO and the US but it so happened that all four times it was a match up of Fed/Djokovic.

2009 AO - #1 Rafa/#4 Murray.... #2 Fed/#3 Djokovic
2009 FO - #1 Rafa/#3 Murray.... #2 Fed/#4 Djokovic
2009 WB - #1 Rafa/#3 Murray.... #2 Fed/#4 Djokovic (#5 Delpo took Rafa's place in the draw)
2009 US - #1 Fed/#4 Djokovic.... #2 Murray/#3 Rafa

 

[Z3kk]

The OP title led me to believe this would be a discussion of action taken by Fed to cross the finish line a 17th time...for example, work with a sports psychologist or a proven "closer" from another era or even another sport. He did everything but win in Flushing SF and, IMO, would have had enough to beat Rafa on HC. He also was very close at RG. He should have taken Tsonga in Wimby QF and, again IMO, would have challenged for the title. CLOSE, CLOSE, CLOSE! That's all he needs to do.

The sad thing is that I would have called Federer himself one of the best closers of all time in his prime

I mean, he occasionally had some trouble closing out matches, but in general, he was one of the most cold-blooded, focused, and heartless closers of all time "back in the day". The brutal efficiency with which he went about finishing his opponents was an awesome sight to watch. Now, though... :/

 

[NadalAgassi]

Part of the problem with Federer closing out matches is that with his own physical decline combined with some of his opponents technical and mental improvements his A-game is no longer higher than people like Djokovic or even neccessarily higher than inconsistent but high risk power players like Tsonga or Soderling. So these guys are capable of making comebacks on their own merits if they raise their game, and Federer cant neccessarily stop it even if he continues to play well.

 

[ollinger]

What Federer needs is for Djokovic's car to collide with Nadal's car on the way to the tournament venue.

 

[Tammo]

What Federer needs is for Djokovic's car to collide with Nadal's car on the way to the tournament venue.

Lol, or Nadal just needs Djokovic's car to hit Fed's so he can win a tourney even just one clay tournament.

 

[Blackkitty]

Totally agree with the OP. Federer would own Murray if they would ever get to play in a Grandslam...

 

[Towser83]

Did you read what I posted? #3 hasn't been in the same half as #1 'so many times'. It has been 1 vs 4 more often. It's the player's ranking that changes. After I posted 2011 and 2010 I went and checked 2009 too. It was evenly split that year with 1 vs 3 at the French and Wimbledon and 1 vs 4 at the AO and the US but it so happened that all four times it was a match up of Fed/Djokovic.

2009 AO - #1 Rafa/#4 Murray.... #2 Fed/#3 Djokovic
2009 FO - #1 Rafa/#3 Murray.... #2 Fed/#4 Djokovic
2009 WB - #1 Rafa/#3 Murray.... #2 Fed/#4 Djokovic (#5 Delpo took Rafa's place in the draw)
2009 US - #1 Fed/#4 Djokovic.... #2 Murray/#3 Rafa

Ok fair enough, but that's sort of what I mean, when the ranking changes it seems to conicide with the draw changing between 1 and 3 and 1 and 4. So It's always Fed vs Djoko

For a long time it WAS 1 and 3, not this year but previously when Djokovic was mostly 3 and Federer was number 1, and then 2 and 3 had a spell when Federer was 2 and Novak 3.

 

[CDestroyer]

Totally agree with the OP. Federer would own Murray if they would ever get to play in a Grandslam...

On paper you are right but I would be pulling for Murray.

 

[tennis_pro]

On paper you are right but I would be pulling for Murray.

Still Federer would have a far better shot at Murray in the semis and Djokovic in the finals rather than facing Djokovic in the semi-finals and Nadal in the finals.

Btw Murray wasn't near his best level in all 4 semi-finals this year.

AO - average performance from Murray, Ferrer played him tough
FO - played pretty well but it's easier to swing freely knowing you have 0 % chance of winning
Wimbledon - played excellent for an hour and then completely sucked
US Open - only Nadal's wobble helped him win a set

You'd expect Murray to give Nadal a better fight since he's the only player from the top 3 he's beaten in a slam (unlike Federer and Djokovic who owned him in all 3 slam finals they played)

 

[tennis_pro]

On paper you are right but I would be pulling for Murray.

If Federer actually played Murray in all majors this year, the only slam in which Murray might've beaten him is Wimbledon. Murray would get slaughtered at the French and US Opens and would probably lose a close match at the Australian Open. Wimbledon is his for grabs.

 

[stringertom]

The sad thing is that I would have called Federer himself one of the best closers of all time in his prime

I mean, he occasionally had some trouble closing out matches, but in general, he was one of the most cold-blooded, focused, and heartless closers of all time "back in the day". The brutal efficiency with which he went about finishing his opponents was an awesome sight to watch. Now, though... :/

Fed has had problems closing throughout his career...'03 DC vs Hewitt, '05AO SF vs Safin, '05 YEC vs Nalby, '06 Rome vs Rafa, '08(?) Montreal vs Tsonga, and of course the last two USO SFs vs Djok. It's almost like Greg Norman in golf, beaten by miracle shots so often he began to expect it to happen. That's why Fed should talk to guys who've competed in tennis or other sports and have bounced back from adversity to win in "crunch time".

 

[Manus Domini]

I wonder, if Fed meets Nadal in the semis, could he beat him there where he has failed in the finals?

Would be lovely

 

[IvanisevicServe]

I think if he could just draw Nadal in the SF (in any slam but the FO, I mean, of course), it could be enough. It would adjust his mentality, and I think he'd relish the opportunity to play Nadal in a SF at, say, the AO...knowing that even if he loses, Nadal ain't closing in on his slam total in all likelihood with Djokovic waiting to demolish him in the final.

But drawing Djokovic in every SF has him thinking, "great, now even if I play an outstanding match and take out Godly-Djoko, I've gotta come back and beat my worst matchup if I want the trophy."

If he takes out Nadal, though, he'll be feeling nearly invincible heading into the final.

 

[rommil]

Win match points.....

 

[vernonbc]

I think if he could just draw Nadal in the SF (in any slam but the FO, I mean, of course), it could be enough. It would adjust his mentality, and I think he'd relish the opportunity to play Nadal in a SF at, say, the AO...knowing that even if he loses, Nadal ain't closing in on his slam total in all likelihood with Djokovic waiting to demolish him in the final.

But drawing Djokovic in every SF has him thinking, "great, now even if I play an outstanding match and take out Godly-Djoko, I've gotta come back and beat my worst matchup if I want the trophy."

If he takes out Nadal, though, he'll be feeling nearly invincible heading into the final.

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. He's beaten Djokovic twice this year and Nadal zero times. :roll:

 

[IvanisevicServe]

Yeah, that makes a lot of sense. He's beaten Djokovic twice this year and Nadal zero times. :roll:

Once.

But that's my point. Federer has to play a great match just to beat Djokovic. If Nadal is the one he faces in the final, he knows he has to have an even BETTER day in order to prevent Nadal from closing in on his GS total.

If he plays and beats Nadal in the SF, the pressure of staying ahead of Nadal in the GS count is off, and he can just focus on beating Djokovic, whom he matches up much better against.

 

[monfed]

I think if he could just draw Nadal in the SF (in any slam but the FO, I mean, of course), it could be enough. It would adjust his mentality, and I think he'd relish the opportunity to play Nadal in a SF at, say, the AO...knowing that even if he loses, Nadal ain't closing in on his slam total in all likelihood with Djokovic waiting to demolish him in the final.

But drawing Djokovic in every SF has him thinking, "great, now even if I play an outstanding match and take out Godly-Djoko, I've gotta come back and beat my worst matchup if I want the trophy."

If he takes out Nadal, though, he'll be feeling nearly invincible heading into the final.

This is pretty much the sentiment of most Federer fans. But question is can Fed take out Nadal even in the semis?

 

[tennis_pro]

This is pretty much the sentiment of most Federer fans. But question is can Fed take out Nadal even in the semis?

The point of the thread is about potential Murray-Federer and Djokovic-Nadal semis in slams. Actually, Murray is closer to Nadal in the rankings than many think with a mere 2300 points behind in the race and still 2-3 tournaments left this year.

 

[sandiegoman]

Fed could be the GOAT of 2012 if this keeps up

 

[Backhanded Compliment]

I honestly believe that Murray could beat Federer in a slam semi.
There would undoubtedly be less pressure on him.

That is going to happen sooner rather than later

 

[TopFH]

I think that when we have Fed-Murray and Nadal-Djokovi semis, Fed will go all in.

 

[msc886]

That's beyond his control though. It seems that he mentality and his stamina let him down the most this year and in my opinion, that's what he's gotta work on. i mean he seems pretty laxed for the most part and when he does get serious, he can't keep the intensity up.