You clearly are not a Stats major, are you?
If you are going to put 2 random performances from Nadal's opponents, could you also put 2 random performances from Fed's opponents? This is so juvenile, it is absolutely hilarious.
About your second point, LMAO. You are going to use Queens?
Here is Haas beating Fed in 2012 Halle:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2012_Gerry_Weber_Open_–_Singles
About the sticky matter of Tsonga beating Nadal in 2008 (!!!) (notice here you have no qualms of using a 2008 result to make a 2011 projection, but you will not use a 2009 or 2012 result to make a 2011 projection...because, because...BETTER FORM...I say so!), here is how Fed-Murray rivalry went in the beginning:
1.
2005 Thailand Open Hard (i) Final Federer 6–3, 7–5 1:26
1 0 2/3
2.
2006 Cincinnati Masters Hard Round of 32 Murray 7–5, 6–4 1:37 1
1 2/3
3.
2008 Dubai Tennis Championships Hard Round of 32 Murray 6–7(6–8), 6–3, 6–4 1:55 1
2 3/3
4.
2008 US Open Hard Final Federer 6–2, 7–5, 6–2 1:51
2 2 3/5
5.
2008 Madrid Masters Hard (i) Semifinal Murray 3–6, 6–3, 7–5 1:57 2
3 3/3
6.
2008 Tennis Masters Cup Hard (i) Round Robin Murray 4–6, 7–6(7–3), 7–5 3:01 2
4 3/3
7.
2009 Qatar Open Hard Semifinal Murray 6–7(6–8), 6–2, 6–2 2:05 2
5 3/3
8.
2009 Indian Wells Masters Hard Semifinal Murray 6–3, 4–6, 6–1 1:48 2
6 3/3
9.
2009 Cincinnati Masters Hard Semifinal Federer 6–2, 7–6(10–8) 1:30
3 6 2/3
10.
2009 ATP World Tour Finals Hard (i) Round Robin Federer 3–6, 6–3, 6–1 1:58
4 6 3/3
11.
2010 Australian Open Hard Final Federer 6–3, 6–4, 7–6(13–11) 2:41
5 6 3/5
12.
2010 Canadian Open Hard Final Murray 7–5, 7–5 2:05 5
7 2/3
13.
2010 Shanghai Masters Hard Final Murray 6–3, 6–2 1:25 5
8 2/3
14.
2010 ATP World Tour Finals Hard (i) Round Robin Federer 6–4, 6–2 1:17
6 8 2/3
Murray more than held his own and had wins over Federer at Rogers cup and Shanghai. I am not like you though and claiming Murray was still a favorite, but it is rather hilarious you have Fed a *clear* favorite over Murray and Nadal not a *clear* favorite over Tsonga.