If conditions are so slow, how will anyone hold serve vs. Nadal? He already gets everything back on this giant court, now he'll have even more time...

[Deleted member 770948]

I agree that Nadal won't get as much top spin with these balls or conditions, but anyone who relies on serving is going to win even less games than usual vs. Nadal.
Thiem actually has been using his serve to beat Nadal on clay with the big serve and big first shot, and we'll see if he can repeat the success of their 2019 Roland Garros meeting when he took a set, but he'll get no pace this time.
Djokovic too has out-served Nadal regularly (it was the only thing he did better than Nadal at 2018 Wimbledon), vital in their match-up to win cheap points, but there will be no cheap points here.
And Zverev of course may struggle most of all, because the more balls Nadal gets back, the bigger Zverev will try to serve......and the double faults will flow.

 

[r2473]

You have to out rally him for 5 hours. Which is why he never loses a 5 set match on clay.

 

[Nadal_King]

Valid point even nadal may struggle on his serve but rafa surely is great on return on clay especially at chatrier where virtually it seems sometimes he has better chance of winning on return than serve

 

[Beckerserve]

I agree that Nadal won't get as much top spin with these balls or conditions, but anyone who relies on serving is going to win even less games than usual vs. Nadal.
Thiem actually has been using his serve to beat Nadal on clay with the big serve and big first shot, and we'll see if he can repeat the success of their 2019 Roland Garros meeting when he took a set, but he'll get no pace this time.
Djokovic too has out-served Nadal regularly (it was the only thing he did better than Nadal at 2018 Wimbledon), vital in their match-up to win cheap points, but there will be no cheap points here.
And Zverev of course may struggle most of all, because the more balls Nadal gets back, the bigger Zverev will try to serve......and the double faults will flow.

They arent!! Nobody on slow conditions on clay is getting three sets off Nadal.
When Nadal goes into humble mode and stuff it always means he is super confident. When he talks himself up we know he is less confident.
Biggest threat to Nadal is the tournament completing. Or being kicked out for a positive test.

 

[Deleted member 770948]

You have to out rally him for 5 hours. Which is why he never loses a 5 set match on clay.

Or a best-of-5-set match, seeing has he's hardly ever played a 5-setter here (Isner 2011, Djokovic 2013).

 

[Tennis_Freak99]

Good point, plus where will all those big guns come in use? He and few others can hit through those heavy balls with sheer power

Thin Djokovic sadly doesn't have that power anymore

 

[Born_to_slice]

Good point, plus where will all those big guns come in use? He and few others can hit through those heavy balls with sheer power

Thin Djokovic sadly doesn't have that power anymore

Reverse humble mode engaged.

 

[Backspin1183]

The slow conditions will favour the big tospin hitters like Thiem, Wawrinka more. Nadal also will gain more from it. He just prefers faster balls these days so he can end points in 3-5 shots and not having to play many over 9 shots rallies.

 

[welcome2petrkordaland]

Sure, holding serve for everyone will be more difficult this year bc of the conditions, but this ain’t 2007. IOW, I’d say in these conditions from 2005-2014ish, good luck beating Nadal on PC at RG.
But now Rafa, in attempts to adapt to aging and diminished athleticism, actually has shortened points, amped up his serve, and now has seriously
compromised speed and agility... So unless he plays efficiently, keeps it deep (unless going for a short angle), spot serves well, comes in and finishes at net when possible, and does everything well, I foresee many tough, long, grueling matches. That ain’t good for 34 year olds.

This will be interesting.

 

[Deleted member 770948]

Sure, holding serve for everyone will be more difficult this year bc of the conditions, but this ain’t 2007. IOW, I’d say in these conditions from 2005-2014ish, good luck beating Nadal on PC at RG.
But now Rafa, in attempts to adapt to aging and diminished athleticism, actually has shortened points, amped up his serve, and now has seriously
compromised speed and agility... So unless he plays efficiently, keeps it deep (unless going for a short angle), spot serves well, comes in and finishes at net when possible, and does everything well, I foresee many tough, long, grueling matches. That ain’t good for 34 year olds.

This will be interesting.

I wonder how long the rallies were at last year's French Open Final, because it looked like an absolute grindfest between Nadal and Thiem.
I remember that 1st Set, Nadal won it 6-3 and the commentators were amazed at how well Thiem played despite losing the set, because the quality of their rallies was outstanding.
Their AO match this year (which Thiem won 76 46 76 76) was full of long rallies too.
Unlike past clay seasons, Nadal won't have any fatigue in his legs, so he can commit to a more physical brand of tennis if necessary.
And probably his negative attitude toward the balls will put him in the frame of mind to win with his legs, knowing that the balls won't help him.

 

[Open Stance]

For his career, on clay Nadal has won 85% of his service games and 66% of total service points. He has won 47% of return games and 47% of total return points. In 2019, Rafa won 87% of his serve games (68% of points) and 44% of return games (47% of points) on clay so he has become slightly more dependent on his serve. It will be interesting to see if these number shift throughout the course of the FO with the different conditions.

BTW these stats reflect how thoroughly dominant Nadal has been on clay. For comparison, Federer has won 93% of serve games and 24% or return games in his career on grass. Djokovic has won 87% of serve games and 32% of return games in his career on hard courts.

 

[Jonesy]

Nadal will still have peaking Thiem in the semis. Plus the roof weakens him like a cryptonite. Will Nadal bleed at a RG final? Djoker will be waiting.

 

[Born_to_slice]

"Slow" is a relative term. With lower bounce, ball travels faster through the court. From what I watched in qualies, I saw plenty of winners. It's very hard to make up for lost ground if a player is pushed off the court.

 

[Pheasant]

Nadal is losing a couple of massive weapons though.

1. The high-bouncing ball
2. The ability to spin the ball onto the court. His running forehand shot is usually like an optical illusion.

I'd honestly be ticked as a Nadal fan. His draw and the drastic change of the conditions will make this much tougher than his usual trip to Roland Garros. But you can obviously never count this legend out. He's still the favorite; albeit by a much smaller margin than ever before(excluding his slump years of 2015-16)

 

[ForehandRF]

Good point, plus where will all those big guns come in use? He and few others can hit through those heavy balls with sheer power

Thin Djokovic sadly doesn't have that power anymore

Djokovic needs to hit like Soderling in 2009

 

[InsideOut900]

Slow and damp isn't literally Hamburg? Those have been Nadal's least favourable conditions if anything.

 

[Rorano_Fedalovic]

Djokovic needs to hit like Soderling in 2009

defaultovic obv the much better player, but when it comes to firepower he looks like a wet noodle compared to Robin.

Shame that Wawrinka is so out of shape.

 

[Start da Game]

I agree that Nadal won't get as much top spin with these balls or conditions, but anyone who relies on serving is going to win even less games than usual vs. Nadal.
Thiem actually has been using his serve to beat Nadal on clay with the big serve and big first shot, and we'll see if he can repeat the success of their 2019 Roland Garros meeting when he took a set, but he'll get no pace this time.
Djokovic too has out-served Nadal regularly (it was the only thing he did better than Nadal at 2018 Wimbledon), vital in their match-up to win cheap points, but there will be no cheap points here.
And Zverev of course may struggle most of all, because the more balls Nadal gets back, the bigger Zverev will try to serve......and the double faults will flow.

he will have to work a lot harder for points to counter the effect of slow and low bounce conditions........he had no problem doing that in 2008 hamburg against peak fedovic, that court was dead slow with less bounce.........but i am not sure he is up for that kind of workload in 2020 given his age and lack of matchplay in recent times........

 

[Eren]

Worst thing is Thiem might be the next Soderling. He might win against Nadal this year and lose to Djokovic after having won against Djokovic last year just to lose to Nadal in the final.

Soderling beat both Federer and Nadal in back to back RG tournaments but lost the finals to both these players.

 

[FRV3]

Worst thing is Thiem might be the next Soderling. He might win against Nadal this year and lose to Djokovic after having won against Djokovic last year just to lose to Nadal in the final.

Soderling beat both Federer and Nadal in back to back RG tournaments but lost the finals to both these players.

That is not a problem because:
1) Thiem already has a slam
2) Thiem already has a slam
3) Some are arguing conditions favor Djokovic in this tournament, which I'm not sure of, but still (Edit: Forget this point as I see what you're saying now. Though Thiem already has a slam, so we can feel a little less sympathy if this occurs)

 

[Lleytonstation]

Why will it be wet? They have a roof. He will only play on Chatrier.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

Why will it be wet? They have a roof. He will only play on Chatrier.

He usually has played one match on SL

 

[Lleytonstation]

He usually has played one match on SL

Not if it is wet he won't.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

If conditions are so slow, how will anyone hold serve vs. Nadal? He already gets everything back on this giant court, now he'll have even more time...

Is this one of those choose-your-own-adventure deals?

Those were fun.

Readers probably have to submit their various alternative endings, right?

What do we have here? Seeing "slow," "nad," "giant," "court"...

K, so clearly this is a Jack and the Beanstalk parable. He's riding into town on the back of a tortoise while battling a giant who's on his way to the courthouse. The giant clobbers him right in the scrote.

 

[Hitman]

Why will it be wet? They have a roof. He will only play on Chatrier.

Not wet, but the clay will be holding a lot more mositure making it more damp, because of the time of year. Heavier clay can have quite the impact on the ball, and if the balls themselves are heavy, that is a double whammy.

 

[Lleytonstation]

Not wet, but the clay will be holding a lot more mositure making it more damp, because of the time of year. Heavier clay can have quite the impact on the ball, and if the balls themselves are heavy, that is a double whammy.

Ah okay. Makes a little more sense.

 

[Moonballballer]

Not wet, but the clay will be holding a lot more mositure making it more damp, because of the time of year. Heavier clay can have quite the impact on the ball, and if the balls themselves are heavy, that is a double whammy.

Also the closed roof will make it more humid inside, so the clay gets heavier.