We asked the folks at ATP Media to crunch the numbers with their advanced statistical analysis.
In 2011, Nadal ventured inside the baseline only 7 percent of the time, but this year it was 11 percent. At the point of impact of his groundstrokes, Nadal was 6.1 feet behind the baseline in 2011 -- and 5.8 feet a year later. That 3.6 inches might not seem like a big disparity, but in terms of elite tennis it can make a significant difference. Nadal, in taking the ball earlier, made it more difficult for Djokovic to create his sharp angles. Those 3.6 inches might have gotten him to two or three balls he might not have reached a year ago.
Moreover, Nadal hit his first serve an average speed of 115 mph this year in Rome, 3 mph faster than last year. The second serve averaged 1 mph faster. His average net clearance was 27 inches in both instances, but his groundstroke speed this year was 73 mph, more than 1 mph faster than a year ago. Again, subtle differences that can lead to a point or two.
In critical moments, when he was even or behind, the analysts pointed out, Rafa went against his history and used shots he normally saves for a lead. When you're sitting on the fastball, a changeup can be devastating; Nadal has been hitting to Djokovic's forehand more under duress, keeping him honest and setting up backhand winners.
"The biggest factor working for him is the belief he can play each ball, for what it's worth, against Rafa," Cahill said. "In the past, he was pulling triggers too early in points. He didn't have the belief that if it was a physical tennis match he could prevail. Now, he's happy to sustain a 15-, 20-shot rally where he wasn't willing to do that before, to stay with him and look for that one ball that can win the point."
