Interesting Big 3 stat regarding US Open

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Also not a big proponent of counting Fed's Agassi loss from 2001. And I'd discount Djoko's results before 2007 too, whatever they may be.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Few points

- careers have been so long the fields and players themselves have undergone a quite dramatic shift
- for the majority of the time, top 5 player means there are only 4 of those players in the draw
- sample sizes are tiny, and largely composed of the same matchups
- whether a matchup counts for this metric also changes over time. Nadal has a Roddick loss that counts, but none of the Big 3s wins over Roddick at the USO count by this metric. Nadal has a Murray win that counts but a loss that doesn't. Etc etc etc.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
As if putting more top 10 players in Rafa's path would've stopped him from winning his 3 titles.

Go check out the top 10 in 2010, 2013 and 2017 and tell me which players he was lucky to avoid who otherwise would've beat him.
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
Federer having 5 USOs while Nadal and Djokovic will probably get close to that number in the future is my biggest regret. 09, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17 can't believe he mugged all those years with choking, casual play, bad scheduling etc.

I think the woes at the USO accentuate his bad scheduling because in 12, 14, 17 he did dumb stuff with his scheduling and ended up paying the piper at the USO. (12 was understandable due to the #1 chase, but it was just dumb to play Canada in 14 and 17).
 

FHtennisman

Professional
Federer having 5 USOs while Nadal and Djokovic will probably get close to that number in the future is my biggest regret. 09, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17 can't believe he mugged all those years with choking, casual play, bad scheduling etc.

I think the woes at the USO accentuate his bad scheduling because in 12, 14, 17 he did dumb stuff with his scheduling and ended up paying the piper at the USO. (12 was understandable due to the #1 chase, but it was just dumb to play Canada in 14 and 17).

I don't think Canada was a bad decision in 14, After all the court speed there is a lot more similar than the speed at Cincy and after he had proven his form in Canada, he didn't really need to play in Cincy. 14 USO is definitely an opportunity gone missing that isn't talked about enough but even if Fed was fully rested, I'm not sure if he wins the SF vs Cilic, though it may go 4/5 sets as his ground game was shaky then.
 

Druss

Hall of Fame
We're seriously gonna count Rafa's 2004 Roddick loss?

Why not? Nadal would become a slam champion 9 months later. So shall we discount Nadal’s win over then world No1 Federer early in the year (Miami)? If he was good enough to beat Fed he should be good enough to beat A-Rod, don’t you think.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Why not? Nadal would become a slam champion 9 months later. So shall we discount Nadal’s win over then world No1 Federer early in the year (Miami)? If he was good enough to beat Fed he should be good enough to beat A-Rod, don’t you think.
This isn't a H2H. These stats and their interpretations aren't remotely similar. Federer has a similar loss vs Agassi.

I'm getting sick and tired of highly multivariable stats being interpreted in ******** ways cause it has to fit a ****ing deluded narrative.
 

Sport

G.O.A.T.
so 3 of ned's 4 multi slam years had mugs up and down the top 10. Might want to keep that on the down low no?
Yes, Djokovic and Del Potro are mugs. So is Kevin Anderson, the assassin of Federer and a 2 times GS finalist.
 

Red Rick

Bionic Poster
Federer having 5 USOs while Nadal and Djokovic will probably get close to that number in the future is my biggest regret. 09, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17 can't believe he mugged all those years with choking, casual play, bad scheduling etc.

I think the woes at the USO accentuate his bad scheduling because in 12, 14, 17 he did dumb stuff with his scheduling and ended up paying the piper at the USO. (12 was understandable due to the #1 chase, but it was just dumb to play Canada in 14 and 17).
First-World-Problems.jpg

It's how it goes. Some tournaments you run above expectation. Some tournaments you run under. Applies to every player. If anyone underperformed at the USO in terms of wins it's Djokovic.
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
First-World-Problems.jpg

It's how it goes. Some tournaments you run above expectation. Some tournaments you run under. Applies to every player. If anyone underperformed at the USO in terms of wins it's Djokovic.
Not really. He's not really an elite quicker HC player, and certainly not better than Lendl/Mac/Sampras/Federer, so 2 is about right for him so far and I would be shocked if he doesn't win one more at least.
 

metsman

G.O.A.T.
I don't think Canada was a bad decision in 14, After all the court speed there is a lot more similar than the speed at Cincy and after he had proven his form in Canada, he didn't really need to play in Cincy. 14 USO is definitely an opportunity gone missing that isn't talked about enough but even if Fed was fully rested, I'm not sure if he wins the SF vs Cilic, though it may go 4/5 sets as his ground game was shaky then.
He skips like no tournaments all year besides Madrid, then goes deep in both Canada/Cincy and predictably looks like a dead man at the end of the USO. Most predictable thing ever. Playing 85 matches in his age 33 season was ridiculous in general.
 

FHtennisman

Professional
He skips like no tournaments all year besides Madrid, then goes deep in both Canada/Cincy and predictably looks like a dead man at the end of the USO. Most predictable thing ever. Playing 85 matches in his age 33 season was ridiculous in general.

Agreed, maybe dropping a couple of tournaments would have enabled him to be fresh at the US Open and not to do his back in at the WTFs and possibly beat Novak in the final, definitely had a fair chance IMO as he was serving very well and was leading 3-2 in the h2h for the year.
 

The_Order

G.O.A.T.
so 3 of ned's 4 multi slam years had mugs up and down the top 10. Might want to keep that on the down low no?

Was talking about his US Open title runs there...

Now answer the question, which top 10 player was going to beat him in those runs?

Fed beat guys like Roddick, Blake, Hewitt, old man Agassi to rack up those top 10 wins. That's where the majority of his wins comes from. As if Nadal and Novak wouldn't have beat those guys too in their title winning form.
 

Enceladus

Legend
Federer having 5 USOs while Nadal and Djokovic will probably get close to that number in the future is my biggest regret. 09, 11, 12, 14, 15, 17 can't believe he mugged all those years with choking, casual play, bad scheduling etc.

I think the woes at the USO accentuate his bad scheduling because in 12, 14, 17 he did dumb stuff with his scheduling and ended up paying the piper at the USO. (12 was understandable due to the #1 chase, but it was just dumb to play Canada in 14 and 17).
You either glad Federer lost in SF 2011 US Open. In the final, he would not be able to beat Nadal. GS titles-gap would be thinner today between RF and RN. The only player who was able to quell Bull then was Djokovic.
 
Fed's top 10 oppponents consist of players such as Blake.

A big portion of Nadal's losses were attained when he could not drink a beer yet ('04-'05 Roddick/Blake).
 

RS

Bionic Poster
I don’t thi
He skips like no tournaments all year besides Madrid, then goes deep in both Canada/Cincy and predictably looks like a dead man at the end of the USO. Most predictable thing ever. Playing 85 matches in his age 33 season was ridiculous in general.
He didn’t get injuried until the end of the season and still maintained a 73-12 winning record so I don’t think it was as bad as you make out. He wasn’t far away from YE 1 as well.
 

moonballs

Hall of Fame
Big 3 vs Top 5 at US Open
RF : 9-4 ( 3 losses to Djokovic, 1 to Agassi)
Nadal: 3-2 (Losses to Roddick, Djokovic)
Djokovic: 5-7 (3 losses to RF, 2 to Nadal, 1 to Murray, Wawrinka)

Big 3 vs Top 10 at US Open
RF : 16-6
Nadal: 5-4
Djokovic: 11-7
Who needs top 5 wins if you always get cake walk draw?
 
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