More stats for Fed's career...

[Gary Duane]

This is something I started before Meles started a similar thread, but it is a slightly different look.

I need to put this info into a spread sheet. I'll do that later.

Federer HC 2013: 53.24% -4-----86.22+25.00 =111.22 #14 on return games. DR 1.23
Federer HC 2009: 53.64% 0-----88.92+25.45=114.37 #14 on return games. DR 1.27
Federer HC 2008: 54.26% -1-----89.86+25.41=115.26 #13 on return games. DR 1.32
Federer HC 2014: 54.80% -1-----90.24+26.95=117.19 #14 on return games. DR 1.38
Federer HC 2006: 54.83% +4-----90.51+31.69=122.20 #3 on return games. DR 1.41
Federer HC 2010: 54.88% -1-----89.23+28.48=117.71 #5 on return games. DR 1.36
Federer HC 2012: 55.09% +3-----92.16+25.71=117.87 #13 on return games. DR 1.39
Federer HC 2004: 55.13% +1-----91.83+29.37=121.20 #2 on return games. DR 1.38
Federer HC 2011: 55.28% -6-----89.60+30.21=119.81 #4 on return games. DR 1.39
Federer HC 2007: 55.42% -8-----90.61+28.67=119.28 #5 on return games. DR 1.45
Federer HC 2015: 55.60% -1-----91.88+30.24=122.12 #5 on return games. DR 1.46
Federer HC 2005: 55.65% +1-----91.16+30.48=121.64 #4 on return games. DR 1.42

 

[Gary Duane]

The stats are not necessarily in the proper order. You have to use some intuition. It's pretty obvious that % of total points is very important. DR may be even more important - dominance ratio. % of games won is only super relevant when the % of service games is very close in %.

Obviously 2013 was the worst year.

In the second column I have +/1 numbers. That is for the total % a player is above or below average for BPs, all of them. So, for example, if Fed was +1 for returning (1 extra % point for converting BPs over % of return points) but -1 on serving (saving 1% less than the % of total service points, the net is 0. And that is very important, for obvious reason. There is nothing more important in tennis than BPs other than sets. So 2006 was his most clutch year in addition to a high DR and his highest every % of games won.

Other than that it is really hard to make a judgement with stats only. 2007 was a 3 slam year, but it was his worst year for clutch in BPs. Probably his overall % of points saved him that year, and his DR would have been the highest ever except for the BPs bringing down the total. 2015 remains a mystery to me and to all of us. Stats don't tell the full story, obviously. We know this from watching someone like Wawrinka, whose success simply can't be explained by stats.

 

[Deleted member 716271]

The stats are not necessarily in the proper order. You have to use some intuition. It's pretty obvious that % of total points is very important. DR may be even more important - dominance ratio. % of games won is only super relevant when the % of service games is very close in %.

Obviously 2013 was the worst year.

In the second column I have +/1 numbers. That is for the total % a player is above or below average for BPs, all of them. So, for example, if Fed was +1 for returning (1 extra % point for converting BPs over % of return points) but -1 on serving (saving 1% less than the % of total service points, the net is 0. And that is very important, for obvious reason. There is nothing more important in tennis than BPs other than sets. So 2006 was his most clutch year in addition to a high DR and his highest every % of games won.

Other than that it is really hard to make a judgement with stats only. 2007 was a 3 slam year, but it was his worst year for clutch in BPs. Probably his overall % of points saved him that year, and his DR would have been the highest ever except for the BPs bringing down the total. 2015 remains a mystery to me and to all of us. Stats don't tell the full story, obviously. We know this from watching someone like Wawrinka, whose success simply can't be explained by stats.

That was the case on clay as well, at least in the RG final, lol.

Thanks for these great stats!

 

[Gary Duane]

The biggest question in my mind right now is about how +/- numbers on BP impact winning. For reasons I absolutely do not understand almost all players average around 1-2% lower than % of service points won on % of BPs saved.

And they average 1-2% higher on % of BPs conversion than on % of return points won.

This is consistent.

Here are enough names to give you an example:

83 65 64 Stefan Edberg
85 67 64 Mark Philippoussis
81 65 64 Kenneth Carlsen
85 67 64 Patrick Rafter
83 66 64 Marin Cilic
83 65 64 Fernando Gonzalez
84 66 64 Jim Courier
84 66 64 Todd Martin
86 68 65 Kevin Anderson
81 64 65 Jan Siemerink *
85 67 65 Ivan Ljubicic
86 67 65 Novak Djokovic
84 66 65 Andre Agassi
84 67 66 Gilles Muller
85 67 66 Michael Stich
86 67 66 Boris Becker
87 69 66 Richard Krajicek
87 68 66 Greg Rusedski
86 68 66 Goran Ivanisevic
84 66 66 Feliciano Lopez *
85 67 66 Rafael Nadal
88 69 67 Wayne Arthurs
87 68 67 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
88 69 67 Roger Federer
90 71 68 Andy Roddick
89 69 68 Pete Sampras
91 71 70 Milos Raonic
91 71 71 John Isner *
92 72 71 Ivo Karlovic

The first number is % of service games. They are very much linked to % of service points, which is obvious. But the rd number is % of BPs saved. Out of this whole group only three people are equal or above. The rest are 1-3% lower, and this is true for all 200 top players shown - careers.

For returning it is the exact opposite. Most players break even when both are totaled.

This makes Fed's 2007 extremely unusual.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/roger-federer/f324/player-stats?year=2007&surfaceType=hard

That year he was 8% lower on % of BPs saved. That is HUGE. On % of BPs converted he was even, which actually is lower than average, because most years most players do better.

Compare with 2006, where he was +2 on serving and +2

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/roger-federer/f324/player-stats?year=2006&surfaceType=hard

So that's my biggest question so far. How in hell did he win so much in 2007 when he was choking a huge amount of BPs - on his serve?

 

[djokerer]

This is something I started before Meles started a similar thread, but it is a slightly different look.

I need to put this info into a spread sheet. I'll do that later.

Federer HC 2013: 53.24% -4-----86.22+25.00 =111.22 #14 on return games. DR 1.23
Federer HC 2009: 53.64% 0-----88.92+25.45=114.37 #14 on return games. DR 1.27
Federer HC 2008: 54.26% -1-----89.86+25.41=115.26 #13 on return games. DR 1.32
Federer HC 2014: 54.80% -1-----90.24+26.95=117.19 #14 on return games. DR 1.38
Federer HC 2006: 54.83% +4-----90.51+31.69=122.20 #3 on return games. DR 1.41
Federer HC 2010: 54.88% -1-----89.23+28.48=117.71 #5 on return games. DR 1.36
Federer HC 2012: 55.09% +3-----92.16+25.71=117.87 #13 on return games. DR 1.39
Federer HC 2004: 55.13% +1-----91.83+29.37=121.20 #2 on return games. DR 1.38
Federer HC 2011: 55.28% -6-----89.60+30.21=119.81 #4 on return games. DR 1.39
Federer HC 2007: 55.42% -8-----90.61+28.67=119.28 #5 on return games. DR 1.45
Federer HC 2015: 55.60% -1-----91.88+30.24=122.12 #5 on return games. DR 1.46
Federer HC 2005: 55.65% +1-----91.16+30.48=121.64 #4 on return games. DR 1.42

Nice try to show some stat that's is consistent across years.
Still weak era is weak

 

[Gary Duane]

Nice try to show some stat that's is consistent across years.
Still weak era is weak

I'm not trying to "show" anything. Or "prove" anything.

I'm asking questions.

I don't get involved in pointless weak era/strong era debates. It starts flame wars between partisan fan-bois.

 

[xFedal]

The stats are not necessarily in the proper order. You have to use some intuition. It's pretty obvious that % of total points is very important. DR may be even more important - dominance ratio. % of games won is only super relevant when the % of service games is very close in %.

Obviously 2013 was the worst year.

In the second column I have +/1 numbers. That is for the total % a player is above or below average for BPs, all of them. So, for example, if Fed was +1 for returning (1 extra % point for converting BPs over % of return points) but -1 on serving (saving 1% less than the % of total service points, the net is 0. And that is very important, for obvious reason. There is nothing more important in tennis than BPs other than sets. So 2006 was his most clutch year in addition to a high DR and his highest every % of games won.

Other than that it is really hard to make a judgement with stats only. 2007 was a 3 slam year, but it was his worst year for clutch in BPs. Probably his overall % of points saved him that year, and his DR would have been the highest ever except for the BPs bringing down the total. 2015 remains a mystery to me and to all of us. Stats don't tell the full story, obviously. We know this from watching someone like Wawrinka, whose success simply can't be explained by stats.

Stats don't show that Novas was burnt out, had nothing left in the tank after taking 1st set, lets not pretend that Novak dint beat 2 of the best ground games on clay and played 3 concesutive days.

 

[Meles]

The biggest question in my mind right now is about how +/- numbers on BP impact winning. For reasons I absolutely do not understand almost all players average around 1-2% lower than % of service points won on % of BPs saved.

And they average 1-2% higher on % of BPs conversion than on % of return points won.

This is consistent.

Here are enough names to give you an example:

83 65 64 Stefan Edberg
85 67 64 Mark Philippoussis
81 65 64 Kenneth Carlsen
85 67 64 Patrick Rafter
83 66 64 Marin Cilic
83 65 64 Fernando Gonzalez
84 66 64 Jim Courier
84 66 64 Todd Martin
86 68 65 Kevin Anderson
81 64 65 Jan Siemerink *
85 67 65 Ivan Ljubicic
86 67 65 Novak Djokovic
84 66 65 Andre Agassi
84 67 66 Gilles Muller
85 67 66 Michael Stich
86 67 66 Boris Becker
87 69 66 Richard Krajicek
87 68 66 Greg Rusedski
86 68 66 Goran Ivanisevic
84 66 66 Feliciano Lopez *
85 67 66 Rafael Nadal
88 69 67 Wayne Arthurs
87 68 67 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
88 69 67 Roger Federer
90 71 68 Andy Roddick
89 69 68 Pete Sampras
91 71 70 Milos Raonic
91 71 71 John Isner *
92 72 71 Ivo Karlovic

The first number is % of service games. They are very much linked to % of service points, which is obvious. But the rd number is % of BPs saved. Out of this whole group only three people are equal or above. The rest are 1-3% lower, and this is true for all 200 top players shown - careers.

For returning it is the exact opposite. Most players break even when both are totaled.

This makes Fed's 2007 extremely unusual.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/roger-federer/f324/player-stats?year=2007&surfaceType=hard

That year he was 8% lower on % of BPs saved. That is HUGE. On % of BPs converted he was even, which actually is lower than average, because most years most players do better.

Compare with 2006, where he was +2 on serving and +2

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/players/roger-federer/f324/player-stats?year=2006&surfaceType=hard

So that's my biggest question so far. How in hell did he win so much in 2007 when he was choking a huge amount of BPs - on his serve?

Guillermo Canas. Fed lost to him early at Miami and IW shattering Fed's nerves.

In all seriousness, he did not face a lot of break points in 2007 and played Nadal, Ferrer, Davydenko, Hewitt, Nalbandian, and probably some other good returners.

 

[Chopin]

I am here on behalf of Club Chopin to issue a cease and desist notice to poster Gary Duane. You've committed fraud of the most severe type and I can only say that the Club is prepared to defend our honour through unparalleled rhetorical feats! There can only be one true Chopin.

 

[I am the Greatest!]

Nice try to show some stat that's is consistent across years.
Still weak era is weak

Weakest era is 2014 to today. Too comfortable.