Movement from Early Start to Year End Ratings?

[tdhawks]

In our section, like many others, our early start ratings were released today. I saw a fair share of movement from 3.5 -4.0, smaller amounts of 4.0-4.5, and little 4.5-5.0.

I understand these ratings only go into effect for those playing fall leagues and carry little meaning once the year end ratings are released.

My question is, for you more experienced league players, have you noticed more movement in the year end ratings from players not being moved up in the early start ratings? Or more of those players moving back down that were moved up in the early start ratings?

Does that make sense?

 

[ednegroni]

Are you talking about the TLS rating website? A lot of people are using it as a base to anticipate what's going to happen but those ratings aren't completely accurate from what I've seen.

 

[Gut4Tennis]

Are you talking about the TLS rating website? A lot of people are using it as a base to anticipate what's going to happen but those ratings aren't completely accurate from what I've seen.

they are very accurate, but the usta goes against it on purpose, so as not to allow one website to get too much attention.

 

[dode]

Well often that will depend on how teams do at nationals as well as any matches played between now and the end of october. I believe we are in the same section, and due to how well our district did at sectionals and I was expecting some bumps, but holy cow our district had a TON of early start bumps at all levels.

John

 

[dode]

Are you talking about the TLS rating website? A lot of people are using it as a base to anticipate what's going to happen but those ratings aren't completely accurate from what I've seen.

He is talking about early start ratings published by usta that are for leagues that start before the end of year ratings come out. They have nothing to do with TLS.

John

 

[918baller]

Well often that will depend on how teams do at nationals as well as any matches played between now and the end of october. I believe we are in the same section, and due to how well our district did at sectionals and I was expecting some bumps, but holy cow our district had a TON of early start bumps at all levels.

John

We had numerous bumps in our district too, unfortunately I was one of them. Nationals can definitely make a difference. Last year two of my team who went to nationals actually flip flopped ratings from early start to year end. One guy was bumped to 5.0 in early start, went 3-0 at nationals and ended at 4.5. The other guy was 4.5 in early start but ended at 5.0 with a 1-2 record at nationals.

I got bumped to 5.0 in early start. Not happy, I'm getting old, only really play for exercise, social reasons and to drink beer afterwards. Plus, the nearest 5.0 league is 100 miles away .

 

[tdhawks]

Well often that will depend on how teams do at nationals as well as any matches played between now and the end of october. I believe we are in the same section, and due to how well our district did at sectionals and I was expecting some bumps, but holy cow our district had a TON of early start bumps at all levels.

John

We qualified for sectionals but didn't fair too well, and yes, we are in the same section. We only had one guy bumped from our team, but we'll see how it plays out when the year end ratings come out.

 

[tdhawks]

We had numerous bumps in our district too, unfortunately I was one of them. Nationals can definitely make a difference. Last year two of my team who went to nationals actually flip flopped ratings from early start to year end. One guy was bumped to 5.0 in early start, went 3-0 at nationals and ended at 4.5. The other guy was 4.5 in early start but ended at 5.0 with a 1-2 record at nationals.

I got bumped to 5.0 in early start. Not happy, I'm getting old, only really play for exercise, social reasons and to drink beer afterwards. Plus, the nearest 5.0 league is 100 miles away .

This is what I am referring to. Last year, I knew of 4 guys who were bumped in the early start ratings, all but 1 were moved back down when the year end came out. On the other hand, one guy on our 4.0 team was bumped at the year end and not in the early start while going 0-2 at districts.

 

[Alchemy-Z]

we had more than usual in our area

I haven't seen anyone go up to 4.5 in like 3 years this year we got enough to actually get a 4.5 league started.

most of the time in my area if you do really well and get bumped to 4.5 you play yourself out of league tennis and have to just do tournaments or friendly pick up games with other 4.5's

 

[Adles]

New England Section still is not out, or if it is then they've buried the link somewhere I can't find.

 

[BMRSNR27]

Most of us seem to be in the same section. My team got decimated, but we're going to nationals so I expected it. Our league was hit hard, likely because of our success at sectionals.

My experience has been that more people have gotten bumped down than up end of year because of the lack of success at nationals. Hopefully, we end that trend!

 

[205bacdoc]

Are you talking about the TLS rating website? A lot of people are using it as a base to anticipate what's going to happen but those ratings aren't completely accurate from what I've seen.

I agree. . .im our group of players, TLS was wrong (up and down) in 7 of 12 of our guys. Kevin's data from this board seems much more accurate.

In our experience, the early bump fall teams (who go to state in the spring) with the spring teams seem to be the stronger ones.

 

[BMRSNR27]

I agree. . .im our group of players, TLS was wrong (up and down) in 7 of 12 of our guys. Kevin's data from this board seems much more accurate.

In our experience, the early bump fall teams (who go to state in the spring) with the spring teams seem to be the stronger ones.

Kevin's data is not even questionably better. He was 14 for 16 on my team last year while TLS missed six or seven.

 

[dode]

Our district got hit HARD with early start bumps. Just looking at players that played in the 18+ summer leagues this season in our district, here are the early start bumps:

3.5 to 4.0: 14 out of 66 total players
4.0 to 4.5: 22 out of 175 total players
4.5 to 5.0: 13 out of 93 total players

Granted not all of them will stick. Two years ago our team went to nationals and had like 7 early start bumps, and only 2 of them stayed up at the end of the year in addition to one that wasn't and early bump. Last year we went to nationals again and had 5 early start bumps, and 3 of them stayed up.

The funny part about the numbers I posted is that there were 13 players bumped from 4.5 to 5.0, but there were only 20 actual 5.0 rated players that played in the 5.0+ summer league last year.

Since I started playing USTA league 3 years ago, this is by FAR the most early season rating bumps I have seen. I know our district had teams in 3.5, 4.0, 4.5, and 5.0 all qualify for nationals in different age divisions, so I am sure that had something to do with it too.

John

 

[Adles]

OK, found New Englands... All but one of the people who beat me last year got bumped. I don't know why, but I'm happy about that. Much less happy about my teammates who got bumped as well, including our captain.

 

[mikeler]

We had numerous bumps in our district too, unfortunately I was one of them. Nationals can definitely make a difference. Last year two of my team who went to nationals actually flip flopped ratings from early start to year end. One guy was bumped to 5.0 in early start, went 3-0 at nationals and ended at 4.5. The other guy was 4.5 in early start but ended at 5.0 with a 1-2 record at nationals.

I got bumped to 5.0 in early start. Not happy, I'm getting old, only really play for exercise, social reasons and to drink beer afterwards. Plus, the nearest 5.0 league is 100 miles away .

I got bumped up to 5.0 last year and I was a sub on our team that went to Nationals. Back in June, I had to travel over 200 miles round trip one day for a match.

 

[Alchemy-Z]

We had numerous bumps in our district too, unfortunately I was one of them. Nationals can definitely make a difference. Last year two of my team who went to nationals actually flip flopped ratings from early start to year end. One guy was bumped to 5.0 in early start, went 3-0 at nationals and ended at 4.5. The other guy was 4.5 in early start but ended at 5.0 with a 1-2 record at nationals.

I got bumped to 5.0 in early start. Not happy, I'm getting old, only really play for exercise, social reasons and to drink beer afterwards. Plus, the nearest 5.0 league is 100 miles away .

be glad you have 4.5 leagues - till this year a 4.5 had to travel out of town to play on a league.(which most don't)

it kinda turned into group of guys who just get together and hit on the weekends and let their usta memberships run out.

 

[cneblett]

be glad you have 4.5 leagues - till this year a 4.5 had to travel out of town to play on a league.(which most don't)

it kinda turned into group of guys who just get together and hit on the weekends and let their usta memberships run out.

Where did you drive to, jacksonville?

 

[g4driver]

they are very accurate, but the usta goes against it on purpose, so as not to allow one website to get too much attention.

TLS is hardly accurate IMO.

TLS was abysmal in predicting bump ups or bumps downs at my club last year, they missed something like 22/25 players that they predicted bumped up or down.

TLS has me rated higher than two teammates that I have never taken a set off of. So According to TLS, I can't beat these guys on my team, but I'm a somehow better player - yeah right.

Sorry but IMO, TLS is nothing more than a poor attempt to make some people feel good about themselves.

 

[205bacdoc]

TLS is hardly accurate IMO.

TLS was abysmal in predicting bump ups or bumps downs at my club last year, they missed something like 22/25 players that they predicted bumped up or down.

TLS has me rated higher than two teammates that I have never taken a set off of. So According to TLS, I can't beat these guys on my team, but I'm a somehow better player - yeah right.

Sorry but IMO, TLS is nothing more than a poor attempt to make some people feel good about themselves.

feeling that TLS is a true "get what you pay for" example.

 

[205bacdoc]

TLS is hardly accurate IMO.

TLS was abysmal in predicting bump ups or bumps downs at my club last year, they missed something like 22/25 players that they predicted bumped up or down.

TLS has me rated higher than two teammates that I have never taken a set off of. So According to TLS, I can't beat these guys on my team, but I'm a somehow better player - yeah right.

Sorry but IMO, TLS is nothing more than a poor attempt to make some people feel good about themselves.

feeling that TLS is a true "get what you pay for" example.

 

[schmke]

Kevin's data is not even questionably better. He was 14 for 16 on my team last year while TLS missed six or seven.

Thanks for the props.

And FWIW, someone just sent me a list of 10 players TLS missed on, some missed up, some wrong up, some wrong down, and I was correct on 8 of 10 and one of those misses was just a few hundredths.

--
NTRP Ratings FAQ

 

[mikeler]

Thanks for the props.

And FWIW, someone just sent me a list of 10 players TLS missed on, some missed up, some wrong up, some wrong down, and I was correct on 8 of 10 and one of those misses was just a few hundredths.

--
NTRP Ratings FAQ

Florida early start came out yesterday. TLS had 4 wrong on my team. See how your numbers did.

 

[schmke]

Florida early start came out yesterday. TLS had 4 wrong on my team. See how your numbers did.

KV - I had correct bump down
CL - I had correct stay
CC - I had correct stay
MI - I had correct stay
RC - I had correct stay
DM - I had correct bump down
AN - I had correct stay
SR - Didn't play any matches

So it looks like I went 7 for 7. Which did TLS miss on?

--
NTRP Ratings FAQ

 

[mikeler]

KV - I had correct bump down
CL - I had correct stay
CC - I had correct stay
MI - I had correct stay
RC - I had correct stay
DM - I had correct bump down
AN - I had correct stay
SR - Didn't play any matches

So it looks like I went 7 for 7. Which did TLS miss on?

--
NTRP Ratings FAQ

2-5 on your list.

 

[tdhawks]

schmke - How much is tournament play calculated into year end ratings? Is it different per section whether they are included or not?

 

[schmke]

schmke - How much is tournament play calculated into year end ratings? Is it different per section whether they are included or not?

Yes, each section gets to decide whether to include tournament matches in year-end ratings or not.

 

[ncgator]

Hey Kevin, any chance you could update the 2013 ratings you did for Lake Norman league (NC) with 2014 results?