Nadal's chance at breaking Fed's Slam Record?

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FedExpress117

Rookie
To get to 16 is hard enough, Fed will win at least 2-3 more.. He's 24 years old now, let's "assume" he'll be healthy until he's 28 (healthy is vague, are we talking 80% or 90%?). So 4 More French Opens (he'll be a threat here for years to come honestly).. That puts him at 11.. then he has to win hardcourt majors with guys like DelPo (who absolutely owned him at the US Open last year) and Murray around, who also dominates Nadal on hardcourts now.. I say odds are 20%.. not going to happen.
 
West Coast Ace

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
0% chance.

I think it's more likely he'll never win another major not played in (or around) Paris, France. Last year proved he can be pushed around by big hitters on fast courts. He's modifying his game to try to change this - but there's only so much he can do.
 
drive

drive

Semi-Pro
West Coast Ace said:
0% chance.

I think it's more likely he'll never win another major not played in (or around) Paris, France. Last year proved he can be pushed around by big hitters on fast courts. He's modifying his game to try to change this - but there's only so much he can do.
Click to expand...

Maybe you're right about USO and AO, but i think you're completely wrong about Wimbledon. He can win some wimbledons. However, as i stated before, he's not likely to surpass 16.. he's not even halfway yet.
 
clayman2000

clayman2000

Hall of Fame
Id say he has a 5% chance.

His best chance would be to win the next 4 FO's, 1 USO, 2 more Wimby's and 2 more Aussies.

Problem for Rafa is that, I think to have any chance at doing that, he would have to be at 14 by the end of 2012. It probably wont happen
 
West Coast Ace

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
drive said:
Maybe you're right about USO and AO, but i think you're completely wrong about Wimbledon.
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In the other, similar thread I did say that he can win Wimby if they slow it down. I just don't think the Club will do that. I don't think they hate Rafa; faster conditions help their man Murray. And where the Australian committee doesn't like Hewitt and wouldn't listen to his camp's cry for faster conditions, the Brits will do what favors their man. We don't have long to wait...
 
samprasvsfederer123

samprasvsfederer123

Banned
he will never be in 23 consecutive semi finals
his current record is what 1?

he will never be the number 1 of the world for 4 consecutive years

he will never even reach 200 weeks as worlds number 1

he will not last or be as healthy as federer has been, will retire earlier

will never win 4 australian opens and counting

will never win 6 wimbledons and counting

will never win 5 us opens and counting

will never win 4 masters cup, if any

wont win 16 grand slams, and counting, by the end of fed's career nadal would have to have a total of atleast 21 grand slams to have more
than fed.

Case closed
 
malakas

malakas

Banned
Oh god!!I see every year the bandwagoning trolling gets worse and worse.

What next?The sun rises from Rafa's butt?
 
mandy01

mandy01

G.O.A.T.
I'm so used to reading about Pete's slam record in this forum that I didn't register Fed's slam record the first time I read the title :lol:
 
Omega_7000

Omega_7000

Legend
DelPotro was missed in this years FO

DelPotro was missed in this years FO! I think DelPo is the best combination of hard hitter + consistency to hurt Nadal in the future IF he is not injured...
 
Radobg

Radobg

Rookie
If he wins Wimledon(40%chanse) and USO(10%chanse) this year I can start thinkig about breaking the record,but.........so dificult this to happen:(!
 
samprasvsfederer123

samprasvsfederer123

Banned
also you may ask well if he gets close will the head to head mean something, i think you must be an idiot if you say yes because it means nadal is better..

* Clay courts: Nadal 10–2 (Best of 5: Nadal 6-0)
* Hard courts: 3–3
* Grass courts: Federer 2–1

so you are telling me that just because nadal has 8 more wins on clay than fed he is better. :lol::lol::lol:
 
AM95

AM95

Hall of Fame
omg. nadal wins another FO title and suddenly he's a contender for 16 slams.

for the past 6 years nadal has averaged 1.16 slams including todays win.

so, using this trend, and with the given premises:

nadal having 7 slams at 24
federer retiring with 16 slams

nadal will need to win 1 more slam this year,putting him at 8 slam total, AND win 2 slams per year CONSISTENTLY for the next 4 yrs to have a chance to beat federer. this is very very unlikely, because nadal has only been able to win 2 slams ONCE. plus we all know about his knees

i think its also fair to say that federer will PROBABLY win at least 2-3 more slams.
so i think its fair to say that as of now, nadal's chances of beating federer are pretty slim.
 
West Coast Ace

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
malakas said:
Oh god!!I see every year the bandwagoning trolling gets worse and worse.

What next?The sun rises from Rafa's butt?
Click to expand...
LOL!

I predict 'Rafa brings about World Peace' and 'Rafa Uses a Kid's Chemistry Set to Come Up with a New Energy Source' threads to come up shortly... :)
 
malakas

malakas

Banned
samprasvsfederer123 said:
also you may ask well if he gets close will the head to head mean something, i think you must be an idiot if you say yes because it means nadal is better..

* Clay courts: Nadal 10–2 (Best of 5: Nadal 6-0)
* Hard courts: 3–3
* Grass courts: Federer 2–1

so you are telling me that just because nadal has 8 more wins on clay than fed he is better. :lol::lol::lol:
Click to expand...

LOL that's as a big IF as the moon.But if you want to fantasize about it go ahead.
 
drive

drive

Semi-Pro
samprasvsfederer123 said:
also you may ask well if he gets close will the head to head mean something, i think you must be an idiot if you say yes because it means nadal is better..

* Clay courts: Nadal 10–2 (Best of 5: Nadal 6-0)
* Hard courts: 3–3
* Grass courts: Federer 2–1

so you are telling me that just because nadal has 8 more wins on clay than fed he is better. :lol::lol::lol:
Click to expand...

We're talking about the slam record, troll. Nobody is talking about Nadal being better than Federer.
 
egn

egn

Hall of Fame
He has been exposed on hardcourts by the rest of the tour. If he can meet Fed in every single slam final on hardcourts from this date on then its doable just because for some reason Fed always seems to lose. However it seems like we are back to 07-08 when he is losing to guys like Tsonga, Murray, Roddick, Ljubicic, Davy, Del Po and all other sorts of guys in the top 20 on hardcourts again. I imagine a guy like Berdych and Soderling would also cause him quite a bit of trouble. I am starting to think he was lucky to get his Aussie when he did. He has the game to do it, but he needs to figure out a way to be more consistent again or to string up a winning streak against these guys. Because none of them are scared of him anymore and are the Miami semi with Roddick was a perfect example of how easy it is to fluster Nadal on hardcourts. Roddick came out changing his strategy playing some impressive offense and really challenging Nadal. Nadal was not sure how to react to this or what to do. If more guys hardball Nadal on hardcourts bringing out some big offensive games, hitting hard, coming to the net a lot and forcing Nadal to have to hit tons of ridiculous winners he will be in trouble. With that being said I don't think Nadal will break Fed's slam record nor do I think he cans right now I think he just wants 1 US Open.
 
samprasvsfederer123

samprasvsfederer123

Banned
drive said:
We're talking about the slam record, troll. Nobody is talking about Nadal being better than Federer.
Click to expand...

hey hey im not a troll and anyways why do you think this thread was created,

if nadal has more he will be thought by most of you idiots as the goat and im explaining why he is not and never will be. if you find offense on it like you always do then ;)
 
D

dh003i

Legend
I think that 14 slams would be a stretch for Nadal. That would be 7 more slams in the 2nd half of his career, and he still hasn't had a complete uninjured year at the top. I'd like to see him win the USO, honestly, but that requires him being healthy (and getting the kind of draw he got at this year's FO).

More realistically, 11. He's only had 2 slams a year once. He could get 2 again this year, and this is probably his best chance to do it again. Then 2 more FO's the next 2 years.
 
West Coast Ace

West Coast Ace

G.O.A.T.
Legend of Borg said:
It's a shame really. I predicted a great run for him in 2010 after his amazing run at the US Open, beating Fedal in the process.
Click to expand...
Very true. But get used to more players going down with wrists. These strokes the players employ, and the lack of an offseason of decent length, is going to make it pretty commonplace unfortunately.
 
Omega_7000

Omega_7000

Legend
Legend of Borg said:
It's a shame really. I predicted a great run for him in 2010 after his amazing run at the US Open, beating Fedal in the process.
Click to expand...

It's a shame indeed! Hope he recovers fully because he is the only top player who can stop Nadal...(not counting Fed since his game matches up so badly against Nadal)
 
F

FedExpress117

Rookie
malakas said:
Oh god!!I see every year the bandwagoning trolling gets worse and worse.

What next?The sun rises from Rafa's butt?
Click to expand...
..........................

umm wow, do you have any idea what's going on. I'm no bandwagoner (look at my name for one (though honestly I'm more of a Roddick fan).. the topic comes up after Nadal wins the French Open without dropping a set at the age of 24.. but you can clearly see I'm not saying he's going to break the record... how am I a bandwagoner?
 
Bud

Bud

Bionic Poster
FedExpress117 said:
..........................

umm wow, do you have any idea what's going on. I'm no bandwagoner (look at my name for one (though honestly I'm more of a Roddick fan).. the topic comes up after Nadal wins the French Open without dropping a set at the age of 24.. but you can clearly see I'm not saying he's going to break the record... how am I a bandwagoner?
Click to expand...

She's an angry Greek woman... ignore her :)
 
malakas

malakas

Banned
FedExpress117 said:
..........................

umm wow, do you have any idea what's going on. I'm no bandwagoner (look at my name for one (though honestly I'm more of a Roddick fan).. the topic comes up after Nadal wins the French Open without dropping a set at the age of 24.. but you can clearly see I'm not saying he's going to break the record... how am I a bandwagoner?
Click to expand...

Bud said:
She's an angry Greek woman... ignore her :)
Click to expand...

Breaking the current Fed record of 16 slams when Rafa has 7 right now is if not trolling at least bandwagonning of the worst kind.

I'm not angry lol it's not if Nadal defeated Fed or Baggy in a heartbreaking fashion anyway..
I like how you added "greek" like it makes a difference?
 
JustBob

JustBob

Hall of Fame
After a 3 hour video conference with the world's top tennis experts and statisticians, the probability of Nadal breaking Federer's GS record now stands at:

1.0262379 %

(Providing that the probability of bionic knees being developed in the next 4 years is above 51.3564722 %)

This thread can now be closed.
 
Andy G

Andy G

Semi-Pro
FedExpress117 said:
To get to 16 is hard enough, Fed will win at least 2-3 more.. He's 24 years old now, let's "assume" he'll be healthy until he's 28 (healthy is vague, are we talking 80% or 90%?). So 4 More French Opens (he'll be a threat here for years to come honestly).. That puts him at 11.. then he has to win hardcourt majors with guys like DelPo (who absolutely owned him at the US Open last year) and Murray around, who also dominates Nadal on hardcourts now.. I say odds are 20%.. not going to happen.
Click to expand...

If Fed didn't win anymore slams, Nadal would need 10 more to pass him. If he one 1 AO, US, WM. He would need 7 FO titles...the only slam he is any good at. Not gonna happen. I would put a 1000:1 chance on Nadal passing Fed's slam total.

I do think he will hit 30+ MS 1000 titles though. Fed will finish with 20-22.
 
cork_screw

cork_screw

Hall of Fame
Fed won a lot of seasons with a 3/4 GS record. I believe nadal can win the french for every year until 26 and maybe 28. But it's hard to win multiple slams in one year. If french is written off as nadal's slam all he needs to focus on is one of the other ones and he's come close to getting into the USO finals and he's already won the aussie. So I think it's possible to get around 12. But 16 is more of a final GS than something you would see him getting mid career. I definitely don't think he is going to surpass 16. He might get 18 if he stays healthy. His health is the only gauge for his count. If he can play injured free until 29. He will might break fed's record. But again fed won a lot of seasons 3/4 GS's.
 
Fedace

Fedace

Banned
FedExpress117 said:
To get to 16 is hard enough, Fed will win at least 2-3 more.. He's 24 years old now, let's "assume" he'll be healthy until he's 28 (healthy is vague, are we talking 80% or 90%?). So 4 More French Opens (he'll be a threat here for years to come honestly).. That puts him at 11.. then he has to win hardcourt majors with guys like DelPo (who absolutely owned him at the US Open last year) and Murray around, who also dominates Nadal on hardcourts now.. I say odds are 20%.. not going to happen.
Click to expand...

Nadal can Never get that healthy so forget about it.........:cry:
 
I

IvanisevicServe

Banned
I would say it's unlikely. Federer may not be able to beat Nadal in a slam, but Del Potro and Murray certainly can...and I have a hunch Cilic may take that next step on non-clay surfaces soon.

Nadal's still clearly below the top tier when it comes to the odds of winning the US Open (Federer, Murray, Del Potro)...and I just can't imagine the guy collecting an abundance of Wimbledon trophies. He'll finish with 3 at the very most...which is still great, but considering I don't expect him to win more than 1 US Open...that means he'll need 12 FO/AO titles to tie, 13 to break.

And the thing with tennis is...every time you think someone's unbeatable, they lose.
 
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