Players who do not "pick a side" when defending a short sitter do not understand the very essence of statistical tennis

[E46luver]

Opponent has a floater at the net.

Lower level player stays in the middle,
hoping to have a chance at still winning every point by reacting,
and not accepting deliberate loss of point by picking the wrong side.
Let's agree that he wins 0% of these points.

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.

Picking a side has a better expected value than hoping to react late.

I believe not picking a side is a hallmark of the tactical statistically savvy big picture player.
At what NTRP level do you see players "resign" (accept 50% possibility of 100% chance of losing the point) and pick a side?

 

[Sir Weed]

One thing you could add: fake to pick a side and move to the other side. Or not and fake to fake. Double fake.

 

[E46luver]

One thing you could add: fake to pick a side and move to the other side. Or not.

That's next level. 4.5 ?

 

[Sir Weed]

That's next level. 4.5 ?

There's creativity or the lack thereof from beginners to professionals, so I'm really not sure if it has to do with levels. Maybe has more to do with mentality than level of play? Heck, I don't know.

 

[travlerajm]

That's next level. 4.5 ?

Fake is commonplace at 4.5. You need to be at least 5.5 to pull off the double fake consistently.

All I know is my fake works most of the time against 4.5 players, but 5.5 players never bite.

 

[Sir Weed]

There's creativity or the lack thereof from beginners to professionals, so I'm really not sure if it has to do with levels. Maybe has more to do with mentality than level of play? Heck, I don't know.

A football player who is a beginner at tennis can probably pull off a fake since he's aware of many things that are going on in a game situation. Footballers can pick up plenty of information at a given time.

 

[golden chicken]

I think most "hoping the opponent beats themselves" goes out the window around 4.5.

 

[Sir Weed]

Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.

 

[travlerajm]

Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.

Does player B become expert in sleight-of-hand juggling moves (fakes)?

 

[Sir Weed]

Does player B become expert in sleight-of-hand juggling moves (fakes)?

Not sure what you want to say (probably lost in translation) but my guess is that B will arrive at fake-the-side level sooner than A. But I'm also not sure what I want to say because of beer.

 

[travlerajm]

Not sure what you want to say (probably lost in translation) but my guess is that B will arrive at fake-the-side level sooner than A. But I'm also not sure what I want to say because of beer.

Player B is probably better at beer pong.

 

[Sir Weed]

Player B is probably better at beer pong.

Maybe. But not much going on in beer pong. Beer pong is Golf (which may be slightly more technical).

 

[travlerajm]

Maybe. But not much going on in beer pong. Beer pong is Golf (which may be slightly more technical).

I have no experience with beer pong, but I’m not very good at golf, darts, or shooting free throws, so I assume I would probably be bad at beer pong.

 

[Sir Weed]

I have no experience with beer pong, but I’m not very good at golf, darts, or shooting free throws, so I assume I would probably be bad at beer pong.

Do you have experience with beer?

 

[travlerajm]

Do you have experience with beer?

NTRP 2.5

 

[Sir Weed]

NTRP 2.5

Makes you a strong beer pong 4.5.

Thread derailed? Please not!

 

[r2473]

Opponent has a floater at the net.

I turn my back, surrender the point and pray he doesn’t peg me

 

[J011yroger]

Remember, this is your new username, gotta keep up the facade.

You are drifting back to your old habits.

J

 

[Dartagnan64]

I have always tried to guess where the opponent is going. Most players at my level have tells. Better players can set up one way then go the other. My general rule is to always go towards open court. If I'm in the middle and can't tell, I move to take away the inside-in shot and make him hit inside out which is technically harder for most players.

 

[Topspin Shot]

Opponent has a floater at the net.

Lower level player stays in the middle,
hoping to have a chance at still winning every point by reacting,
and not accepting deliberate loss of point by picking the wrong side.
Let's agree that he wins 0% of these points.

Bad assumption, end thread.

 

[rrortiz5]

What about players who play at lower levels (4.0) and are fast enough to chase down either side from the middle?

 

[Morch Us]

Are you not considering the possibility to hit through the middle ? How about a drop shot to the middle ?

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.

 

[vex]

Opponent has a floater at the net.

Lower level player stays in the middle,
hoping to have a chance at still winning every point by reacting,
and not accepting deliberate loss of point by picking the wrong side.
Let's agree that he wins 0% of these points.

Statistical minded player picks a side, hoping to guess 50% and have a real chance
Let's agree that he wins some of the points when he correctly guesses the side.

Picking a side has a better expected value than hoping to react late.

I believe not picking a side is a hallmark of the tactical statistically savvy big picture player.
At what NTRP level do you see players "resign" (accept 50% possibility of 100% chance of losing the point) and pick a side?

Your numbers are way off but yes the correct play is a delayed commitment to cover cross court 80% of the time and DTL 20%. Defend the easy finish, force them to hit the harder DTL shot, and occasional surprise them by covering DTL at the last second.

 

[onehandbh]

Against high level players, you should sprint to a small 1x1 meter square next to the net and bordering one of the sidelines.

By employing this tactic you will be taking away one of their options, a dropshot near the sideline.

 

[ptuanminh]

There is no such thing as 0%, pro statistician here.

 

[J011yroger]

There is no such thing as 0%, pro statistician here.

Explain please, or link to something that explains what you mean?

I might learn something in this thread after all.

J

 

[ptuanminh]

Explain please, or link to something that explains what you mean?
I might learn something in this thread after all.
J

Haha it was a joke. I am pretty sure not picking a side does not result in absolute 0% of getting the ball back.
However, if you are interested in the statistics, you can check this out. It says if you throw a tennis ball at the wall, there is a non-zero probability that it will go through the wall. crazy physics people.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

 

[J011yroger]

Haha it was a joke. I am pretty sure not picking a side does not result in absolute 0% of getting the ball back.
However, if you are interested in the statistics, you can check this out. It says if you throw a tennis ball at the wall, there is a non-zero probability that it will go through the wall. crazy physics people.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

Damn, you got me excited.

J

 

[Topspin Shot]

There is no such thing as 0%, pro statistician here.

If there's no such thing as 0%, then doesn't that mean there's a 0% chance that there is such a thing as 0%?

 

[Sir Weed]

If there's no such thing as 0%, then doesn't that mean there's a 0% chance that there is such a thing as 0%?

 

[ptuanminh]

If there's no such thing as 0%, then doesn't that mean there's a 0% chance that there is such a thing as 0%?

zero-ception

 

[onehandbh]

What are the chances of the currently deceased Abe Lincoln winning the next election?

 

[Goof]

Pick a side early and start going there but half-assedly while preparing yourself mentally and physically for sprinting to the OTHER side. You'd be surprised how often this gets me a very good look at a running pass (gotta go for broke on it though as you'll be waaay out of position after it).

 

[J011yroger]

@E46luver how do you pick which side you go to?

J

 

[J011yroger]

@E46luver how do you pick which side you go to?

J

For clarification, this question has a correct answer and I want to see if you know it.

J

 

[a12345]

If you stay in the middle, there maybe more chance your opponent hits down the sides, and because theyre aiming for the sides there maybe more chance they hit it out due to the tighter angles.

On the flip side, if you had an easy shot where would you least like your opponent to stand?

 

[blablavla]

What are the chances of the currently deceased Abe Lincoln winning the next election?

depends in which universe and in which country of that universe

 

[Curiosity]

Explain please, or link to something that explains what you mean?
I might learn something in this thread after all.
J

Since you're measuring a random variabe (wins the point or not, you don't know in advance), and using a large enough sample (number of tries) to make the little experiment yield to mathematics, the rules of probability require by convention (and for more complicated mathematical reasons), that the result must be between 0 and 1, which are the analytic limits for the series of results, limits which should never be reached if there is any variability whatever in the player's (or other experiment's) performance. If, for example,you know that a given player will never lose the point (or always lose it) there really is no randomness to the event...and therefore you're not actually running an experiment, but just running a perfectly reliable machine. Think of the number between 0 and 1, given as a two-digit decimal, as a percentage: Example: an N100 filtering face mask means it 100% of the time stops particles larger than 0,3 micrometers (the smallest Corona Virus particles as measured in the air test at 0.5 micrometers due to moisture, mucus, etc.) -the manufacture will call it 99.9% in the small print: They won't dare alleged absolute certainty. An N95 mask doesn't require "back off" small print. Wiki "Probability" states it the usual way:
"Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty."

 

[travlerajm]

Since you're measuring a random variabe (wins the point or not, you don't know in advance), and using a large enough sample (number of tries) to make the little experiment yield to mathematics, the rules of probability require by convention (and for more complicated mathematical reasons), that the result must be between 0 and 1, which are the analytic limits for the series of results, limits which should never be reached if there is any variability whatever in the player's (or other experiment's) performance. If, for example,you know that a given player will never lose the point (or always lose it) there really is no randomness to the event...and therefore you're not actually running an experiment, but just running a perfectly reliable machine. Think of the number between 0 and 1, given as a two-digit decimal, as a percentage: Example: an N100 filtering face mask means it 100% of the time stops particles larger than 0,3 micrometers (the smallest Corona Virus particles as measured in the air test at 0.5 micrometers due to moisture, mucus, etc.) -the manufacture will call it 99.9% in the small print: They won't dare alleged absolute certainty. An N95 mask doesn't require "back off" small print. Wiki "Probability" states it the usual way:
"Probability is a numerical description of how likely an event is to occur or how likely it is that a proposition is true. Probability is a number between 0 and 1, where, roughly speaking, 0 indicates impossibility and 1 indicates certainty."

Ok. So now that we’ve narrowed the probability of success down to somewhere in the range between 0 and 1, which way should I move?

 

[Deleted member 768841]

Ha ha, moonball goes bounce bounce.

 

[E46luver]

@E46luver how do you pick which side you go to?

I stay in the middle.

 

[3loudboys]

There's creativity or the lack thereof from beginners to professionals, so I'm really not sure if it has to do with levels. Maybe has more to do with mentality than level of play? Heck, I don't know.

Me neither

Sent from my SM-A705FN using Tapatalk

 

[3loudboys]

A football player who is a beginner at tennis can probably pull off a fake since he's aware of many things that are going on in a game situation. Footballers can pick up plenty of information at a given time.

100% in football there is so much more awareness of the dummy or the shimmy. Principals easily applied to tennis.

Sent from my SM-A705FN using Tapatalk

 

[3loudboys]

Let's assume we have two players at a slightly advanced level, they're twins and have the exact same skills. One player (A) is being introduced to the idea of picking a side (hell, let's have player A study mathematics) while the other one (B) acquires the skill to juggle three balls (player A can't), juggles every day but nobody tells her/him about picking sides. Okay, now let's make a study with 5000 twins that play tennis at an advanced level...

Essentially: time for a beer.

Cheers.

Not sure I understood that but did enjoy a good laugh. Hmmm beer

Sent from my SM-A705FN using Tapatalk

 

[Sir Weed]

Not sure I understood that but did enjoy a good laugh. Hmmm beer

Damn, you had to remind me of beer. Hmmm it's five days since...

 

[3loudboys]

Damn, you had to remind me of beer. Hmmm it's five days since...

Sounds like you're overdue and all this posting on TT must have given you the thirst!!

 

[esm]

I thought you pick a side by “following” the direction of the shot....?
It is now beer o’clock

 

[Curiosity]

Ok. So now that we’ve narrowed the probability of success down to somewhere in the range between 0 and 1, which way should I move?

Federer doesn't have a fixed answer, but you expect me to? Depends on the opponent and your own skills. You're placing a bet each time you make the choice. You're also taking into account your own ability. Some players may be able to guess the opponent will go to your left, but your own percentage of success may be much lower on that side. I'd just push the opponent to make the more difficult shot: Which that is depends on the opponent, doesn't it?

 

[travlerajm]

Federer doesn't have a fixed answer, but you expect me to? Depends on the opponent and your own skills. You're placing a bet each time you make the choice. You're also taking into account your own ability. Some players may be able to guess the opponent will go to your left, but your own percentage of success may be much lower on that side. I'd just push the opponent to make the more difficult shot: Which that is depends on the opponent, doesn't it?

Solid answer. I expect no less from a man who is good at burpees.

 

[AnyPUG]

What are the chances of the currently deceased Abe Lincoln winning the next election?

There is always an insignificant chance of letting anyone(living or otherwise) stand for elections, so it is more than 0%.