You're not wrong. It's uncharacteristic for Nadal to lose during clay season in any particular event.
I wouldn't exactly call QF/SF early necessarily, but I guess it is for Nadal at RG. Frankly, I didn't want to go the route of a typical prediction for Nadal (predict him winning 1 clay event before winning RG) and I guess right now Nadal's form isn't super visible. We'll see more when clay season rolls around, but 2023's start of the year has been Nadal's weakest since... well, ever.
Of course, Nadal is Nadal and I wouldn't be surprised by a victory for him at RG at all, but I don't think it's as sure as many seem to think. Though I do think he'll win a Masters just to show people he's still got it. Last year he did still win it all despite not winning any Masters, but he entered his first 5 setter in a long time and had a couple tougher matches, plus he still had the shine of winning on him from his AO victory. This year he won't have that. And while he's still Nadal at RG, he'll still be viewed as vulnerable unless he can show the tour why they truly have no chance.
Plus I just kinda like the idea of Nadal winning Madrid again for once instead of MC or Rome.