Their last hardcourt meeting was at the 2020 ATP Cup, and Nadal was in dreadful form and it still went to a tiebreaker in the 2nd Set.
So it shouldn't surprise anyone if Nadal wins a set next time they meet on hardcourt, and if he can win a set then he can win a match.
I don't agree that Nadal "can't beat Novak with his current more offensive style".