Gotta be honest if he doesn’t break the Slam record and actually loses the opportunity to get 21 Slams to the likes of Zverev, Medvedev, or Tsitsipas, then he is not the GOAT. Imagine getting denied by those lanky mugs. It’s his last year or two at the top though and I think he knows it. For many reasons, it’s kind of all or nothing this year.
Nadal will be winning the French Open so Djokovic needs 2 slams. At this point I’m nearly certain he’ll get one. I’m 50-50 on two.
If it stays 20-20-20 or ends at 21-21 with Nadal, Djokovic still has strong arguments in his favor, though. Mainly NCYGS, DCS, DCM and weeks/year-E #1. Nadal and Federer would have their own arguments/records too; but Djokovic would have the 2nd most prestigious one (time spent as #1). Nadal or Federer need to win the Slam race to be considered goat, at this point.
1 year ago it was 17-20-20 and nobody could imagine he would win 3 and catch up his 2 rivals in only 1 season. Therefore it's reasonable to have more reduced expectations for 2022 and I don't think it's ''all or nothing'' like you say. I think he will only win 1 this year but he will still win 1 in 2023 and maybe even 1 in 2024. But he doesn't really need 2 slams, if it's 21-21 at the end of the year, he'll still have the favor in 2023. And Even if he wins 0 in 2022, I still won't write him off, he'd still be top contender at AO and Wimbledon 2023.
Medvedev and Zverev aren't lanky mugs, IMO. As a big tennis fan, I find it unfair to call them that way seeing the level of play they've produced this year, especially Medvedev in NY and Zverev in Tokyo and Turin. IMO, only a peak Federer on indoors would have beaten the Zverev from the last 2 matches in Turin. I give them all the credit they deserve. At Djokovic and Nadal's age, there is no shame losing against these 2 players who will probably rack up multiple slams in the next 5 years.
What are your realistic expectations from Djokovic in 2022, below are the questions regarding his season.
1. Will he win a grand slam?If Yes how many?
2. How many Masters 1000 titles?Mention the ones?
3. How many Grand slam Semis he will reach?
4. Year end ranking expectations?
1. He will win 1 Slam. Either Wimbledon or AO.
2. He will win one Masters on clay (Monte Carlo or Madrid if he plays it) and that's it. He will lose to Medvedev or Zverev in SF or F of the HC Masters
3. He will reach 3 Semifinals. 1 win, 1 F and 1 SF.
4. Year-End #3.