Highlights here:
I must demur. Right off watching these highlights Shaps looks very quick and light on his feet.Highlights here:
Shapo taking the court now vs Bhambti in Granby. I may watch this if the ATP website has live coverage.
Here is the livestream link:
https://livestream.com/accounts/5057055/events/7621211
Denis already down an early break. He hit a couple too many into the net. But this match looks like it will have more flow than the last match he played.
Terrible call against McDonald at 3-3 in the first set... Denis hit a shot that landed 6'' wide and it was called in.
The Hat advances to a SF rematch with last week's final opponent Polansky, 6-3 4-6 6-3.
I only caught the third set, which featured Shapo storming through the last three games FTW. It was a lot of first strike tennis with his serve/FH combo stronger than Double Mac's. He needed that aggressive approach to break through and avoid longer rallies that he was coming up short on. Good returns in both of the concluding breaks were the difference.
Hope Shapo can recover after these consecutive three-setters. Polansky cruised today vs Uchiyama.
Do you have any positive comment to make? or any other substantive comment to make about how either of the players played? No?
Well then, Denis takes the match 63 46 63.
(P.S. We might have some geography in common. SWO!)
The poster was making a wry reference to one of those hall-of-fame TTW classics when someone earnestly rated a video of Polansky practicing as a 4.5.What's that saying? "on any given day....".
I'm pretty sure Denis is giving full respect to Pete. Polansky is ranked #118 in the live rankings. No, he's not a top 50 player, but he didn't get that ranking by not ever winning.
(P.S. We might have some geography in common. SWO!)
Link?Serving at 2-5 down, Shapovalov starts the service game with two doublefaults. Later in the game he misses an easy forehand to set up break points, and gets broken on probably the first good point Polansky's played that entire game.
If Shaps doesn't step it up, the rest of this match will go by very, very quickly.
nearly all challenger matches are sent here and the ATP homepageLink?
thanks, had forgotten. It's been a while since I watched a challenger.
thanks, had forgotten. It's been a while since I saw my last challenger.
All true. And yes, it's closer to being on court.It's very cool of the ATP to broadcast so much of the challenger tour for free I think. Lot of good tennis, and I like the camera angle they tend to use. More court level feel to it than TV broadcasts.
Hi guys it's really nice to meet you all in this here little hut of closely tied individuals. I definitely feel like an outcast here but I feel compelled to quiz you weirdos on something.
Who do you think is the better prospect out of Shap and Rublev and why?
Definitely not the Andy Dick version?I feel the same on Shapovalov, in that he is a very instinctive player and is building his game in a holistic manner, where everything is developing everywhere steadily. That's why I like him. He's in the pure shot-maker mold and is unpredictable and exciting to watch, but on top of that it's not just smoke and mirrors as there's real substance and effectiveness and firepower in his game. He's fierce in his play and energy.
Rublev looks a lot more limited to me and only knows one way which is to spit "straight fire" in baseline exchanges in the hopes of mauling his opponent. And when he's on it's blistering and there's blatant talent and ability there. He'll need to develop much more nuance to his game to be successful in a bigger way on the tour.
Both have potential but I definitely prefer Shapovalov in terms of how he plays and I think he has a bit more upside than Rublev too.
I enjoyed watching Xtina on The Voice back in the day.
Same place you are.
Great place.
when in doubt go with the guy with the bigger serve, forehand, and better footwork. I like Shap but he doesn't have any huge weapons yet.I feel the same on Shapovalov, in that he is a very instinctive player and is building his game in a holistic manner, where everything is developing everywhere steadily. That's why I like him. He's in the pure shot-maker mold and is unpredictable and exciting to watch, but on top of that it's not just smoke and mirrors as there's real substance and effectiveness and firepower in his game. He's fierce in his play and energy.
Rublev looks a lot more limited to me and only knows one way which is to spit "straight fire" in baseline exchanges in the hopes of mauling his opponent. And when he's on it's blistering and there's blatant talent and ability there. He'll need to develop much more nuance to his game to be successful in a bigger way on the tour.
Both have potential but I definitely prefer Shapovalov in terms of how he plays and I think he has a bit more upside than Rublev too.
I enjoyed watching Xtina on The Voice back in the day.
So there's 3 of us then?
when in doubt go with the guy with the bigger serve, forehand, and better footwork. I like Shap but he doesn't have any huge weapons yet.
when in doubt go with the guy with the bigger serve, forehand, and better footwork. I like Shap but he doesn't have any huge weapons yet.
@gogo @-NN-
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
Where are you drawing your stats from, BTW? Interesting and significant data on the return there. I agree that it's close to call and it wouldn't be surprising either way to see one do better than the other. Are we at the stage where we can be confident that at least one of the two will see Slam success and perhaps even both? Would you be surprised if both "failed".
Also, there's more dynamism in Shapo's game but both are guilty of "smack the **** out of the ball" syndrome. Neither have developed a sense of court awareness and understanding on the level of say, a Zverev, for example.
Stats from Tennis Abstract.
Personally I'm not at the point where I take it for granted that one out of them will be a slam champ, but I'd still back them to make it. The tour in the coming 5–10 years seems so open that many scenarios are possible. Would you be surprised?
Shapo wins at least one Wimby title; Tsitsipas will also win there; Zverev, Ruud (at RG only), Rublev, ADF, FAA and Kuhn will battle it out with them in other years and on the other two surfaces. None of them will dominate like Fedalovic.
He just saved BP in the opening game vs Paul with one of three aces. A good start.I only hope they have good health. Fed's gen were pretty strong but many of the best players had quite short primes, whether it be through injury or through not having the most dedicated and consistent work ethic. As for Ruud, I need to see more. I know you and Sysyphus have highlighted a very specific concern for his game but the right coaching over the next 5 years could make a monumental difference.
also Money has more physical development left in the tank which will help with the serve. Shap looks to be pretty filled out already.@gogo @-NN-
Good to see someone pushing the Money train in this Shapo land
Warning: long rambling poast ahead:
To add some counterpoint (read: Russian jockstrapping) to the pro-Shapo sentiments from gogo and Nate above, I might add some data points I think favor Rublev:
– Shapo hasn't really gained his results against the toughest fields. A lot of the challengers ha has entered aren't the most stacked ones, and a lot of his résumé is made up of matches against players in the 150–500 range. In contrast, Rublev has made a habit of entering relatively tough fields, arguably to a fault, entering lots of main tour events and stacked challengers as soon as he went pro. This choice has probably made his ranking progress less linear than it could have been, but he has gotten to mature against solid players, the fruits of which may be showing these days.
To illustrate, if we look at top 150 opposition, Shapo has only played them 20 times in his career thus far. And the vast bulk of these are in the lower range of this ranking segment, hardly any top 50. In contrast, Rublev played top 150 opponents a total of 31 times in 2015 alone, 26 times in 2016, 89 times in total. This also includes plenty of top 50 players. Enormous difference, whether we account for age or not. Moreover, Rublev's success and stats against them are more favorable. Which brings me to:
– Shapo has an alarming weakness in his return game. I used to moan for a long time about Rublev's returning, but Shapo is in another dimension. On average against all opposition, he's winning 35.8% of return points in the past year, which is close to the worst return numbers of the youngsters I've checked. Rublev by comparison is at 37.9%, which isn't anything to jump through the roof for, but more acceptable. But, if we look at matches against top 150 opposition for the same time frame, Rublev actually improves to 38.4%, whereas Denis's numbers plummet to an atrocious 28.3%. As @falstaff78 has argued cogently, players only tend to improve their return ability so much as they grow older, and a big weakness in the return game is a tough achilles' heel. But, given his few matches on this level the sample is small, and Shapo could be maybe young enough that huge jumps on return are possible. Maybe Falstaff has thoughts on that?
– In terms of serving, Denis is very impressive and actually doing slightly better than Andrey also against the top 150. While Rublev has more pace on tap of the two, Denis is hitting spots better and using his lefty advantage to great effect. Nevertheless, while he'll improve his serve more, given his size he'll never be a full blown serve bot. Players who have a modicum of balance between serve and return game tend to have higher potential ceilings than the serve- or return bots.
Of course, these stats of what they've done thus far don't tell us how they'll develop in the future. But I think it illustrates the difference in what lies behind their rankings. Shapo obviously has tremendous upside, and I wouldn't be surprised to see either one have the better career. Nevertheless, I put my money on Money's more adult game and suspect Shapo will have more serious holes to overcome (return + erratic single-hander).
I could see all of them being FAA fodder in about 5 years or so tbh. Mass vulturing may go on before then...Shapo wins at least one Wimby title; Tsitsipas will also win there; Zverev, Ruud (at RG only), Rublev, ADF, FAA and Kuhn will battle it out with them in other years and on the other two surfaces. None of them will dominate like Fedalovic.
I could see all of them being FAA fodder in about 5 years or so tbh. Mass vulturing may go on before then...
My main worry there is that FAA will succumb to health/injury issues (heart; wrist; or something else) or, more likely, simply won't be able to handle the expectations. Are these unfounded? Please tell me these are unfounded concerns. I really, really, really want FAA to fulfill his potential. The fans are waiting!