Was Graf "slumping" during Seles' supremacy?

[Dolgopolov85]

Where I have said I haven't agreed? Was that the point from where Seles started to win? She lost matches to ordinary players after that and her winning streak did not start then.

That is completely irrelevant. Graf's 'slump' coincides with the twin losses to Seles on clay in 1990. You cannot get around it no matter what mental gymnastics you indulge in. Your whole argument is that Graf's slump was somehow disconnected from Seles' rise and this is contradicted by the evidence of 1990.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

I am not a fan of Graf by the way. .

And I have a bridge to sell you...

I am sure it would hurt to see so many achievements tagged to her, and none with your favourite player

My favourites esp Navratilova and Serena have many achievements tagged to their name, thank you very much.

 

[buscemi]

Where I have said I haven't agreed? Was that the point from where Seles started to win? She lost matches to ordinary players after that and her winning streak did not start then.

Actually, I think that Seles's 36 match winning streak in 1990 which included the 2 wins over Graf was the longest winning streak of her career.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

She was definitely slumping, as evident by her multiple losses. Question here is whether these losses weren’t caused by Monica’s domination. A prodigy like Graf who wins everything left and right from a very young age always being the chaser and the youngest player winning big, naturally develops some self-belief of invincibility which let her win matches on her confidence alone and which gets a hard knock once a younger contender starts beating her repeatedly and wins more tournaments than her.

That can very easily cause some general doubts she never had before and, combined with the fact that other players who previously had given up on beating her develop new confidence, can very much have resulted in Graf losing more matches than before also to other opponents than Seles. So that she was losing more than before does not mean that Seles benefited from a slumping Graf but on the contrary beat a Graf who was on top and caused a slump by doing that.

 

[Mustard]

Seles started the 1990-1993 "Graf slump" back in 1990, in ending a 66 wins in a row streak from Graf in the 1990 Berlin final. It's not Seles' fault if Graf couldn't reach her in the draw due to Graf losing to Novotna, Sanchez Vicario, Navratilova, Sabatini etc. Seles usually beat the woman who beat Graf anyway, and she also beat Graf herself in multiple majors in that period.

 

[BTURNER]

She was definitely slumping, as evident by her multiple losses. Question here is whether these losses weren’t caused by Monica’s domination. A prodigy like Graf who wins everything left and right from a very young age always being the chaser and the youngest player winning big, naturally develops some self-belief of invincibility which let her win matches on her confidence alone and which gets a hard knock once a younger contender starts beating her repeatedly and wins more tournaments than her.

That can very easily cause some general doubts she never had before and, combined with the fact that other players who previously had given up on beating her develop new confidence, can very much have resulted in Graf losing more matches than before also to other opponents than Seles. So that she was losing more than before does not mean that Seles benefited from a slumping Graf but on the contrary beat a Graf who was on top and caused a slump by doing that.

It certainly happened to Evert with Austin 1979-81 and to Martina with Steffi in 1987-1988. Everyone noticed how much Trouble Martina had getting to Steffi let alone beating her. She had more losses to Evert, to Mandlikova than before, and some really weird ones to others.

 

[BorgTheGOAT]

It certainly happened to Evert with Austin 1979-81 and to Martina with Steffi in 1987-1988. Everyone noticed how much Trouble Martina had getting to Steffi let alone beating her. She had more losses to Evert, to Mandlikova than before, and some really weird ones to others.

And same to Fed in 2008.

 

[Gizo]

Graf of course set incredibly high standards in the late 80s - IMO she was clearly an even better player in 1989 than she was during her 1988 grand slam year - and when she won her 1990 Australian Open title several people including Shriver were talking about how she wasn't the same player that she had been in 1988-1989 and didn't appear to be 'all there'. She did win her first 25 matches of the season before facing Seles in Berlin though.

The lowest point for Graf was that 1991 SF against ASV in Paris - it was a torrid day for her with her performance on the court and then having to answer questions about her father's behaviour off it and in the stands. That was the 5th consecutive major that she failed to win, and she was starting to be written off more and more. She did show her resilience to bounce back and win the Wimbledon title a few weeks later. When she found herself under pressure against Sabatini in the final including during many of the biggest points, she summoned her 'extra reserves' and played her best shots (if she hadn't preceded Sampras, I would have called that a Sampras-esque Wimbledon performance). Wimbledon was her cocoon and safe-haven, ensuring that she didn't go slamless when she was 2nd best to Seles.

I do agree that the Graf's losing more often to other players was clearly a by-product of being overtaken by Seles after her her incredibly dominant run in the late 80s.

I'm sure like many other people who followed women's tennis, I was fascinated to see how things would play out during the RG-Wimbledon double header in 1993, including whether Graf could dethrone Seles in Paris, and whether Seles could dethrone Graf at Wimbledon. But sadly terrible circumstances got in the way.

 

[Pheasant]

With a gun to my head, I would have predicted that Seles with her 4 1/2 year age advantage over Graf would have slowly but surely passed Graf in slam titles.

She had just trimmed the lead to 11-8 a month after her 19th birthday. By comparison, when Nadal won the 2008 Wimbledon title, he had just trimmed Fed’s lead to 12-5 when he was a month past his 22nd birthday.

I think that they would have ended up close in the end. But I think that Seles could have made up 3 slams with her 4 1/2 year age advantage.

Unfortunately, we never got to find out, due to that pathetic piece of garbage that stabbed Seles. And worse yet, that lunatic got exactly what he wanted without paying much of a price.

 

[Dolgopolov85]

Graf of course set incredibly high standards in the late 80s - IMO she was clearly an even better player in 1989 than she was during her 1988 grand slam year - and when she won her 1990 Australian Open title several people including Shriver were talking about how she wasn't the same player that she had been in 1988-1989 and didn't appear to be 'all there'. She did win her first 25 matches of the season before facing Seles in Berlin though.

The lowest point for Graf was that 1991 SF against ASV in Paris - it was a torrid day for her with her performance on the court and then having to answer questions about her father's behaviour off it and in the stands. That was the 5th consecutive major that she failed to win, and she was starting to be written off more and more. She did show her resilience to bounce back and win the Wimbledon title a few weeks later. When she found herself under pressure against Sabatini in the final including during many of the biggest points, she summoned her 'extra reserves' and played her best shots (if she hadn't preceded Sampras, I would have called that a Sampras-esque Wimbledon performance). Wimbledon was her cocoon and safe-haven, ensuring that she didn't go slamless when she was 2nd best to Seles.

I do agree that the Graf's losing more often to other players was clearly a by-product of being overtaken by Seles after her her incredibly dominant run in the late 80s.

I'm sure like many other people who followed women's tennis, I was fascinated to see how things would play out during the RG-Wimbledon double header in 1993, including whether Graf could dethrone Seles in Paris, and whether Seles could dethrone Graf at Wimbledon. But sadly terrible circumstances got in the way.

Agree with pretty much everything. She was almost done in the W 91 final and summoned up those extra reserves to swing it and steal a win. There's no saying what a loss there would have presaged because, as you say, that was her rock bottom. Even before the disastrous showing against ASV at RG 91, she had appeared uncharacteristically fragile against Novotna at AO. OTOH 92 W was a vintage level performance all the way through, one of the very few such post her 88-89 peak. That's also why I push back against the 'slump' argument because Graf was rarely always locked into the zone post 89. As you said, she was already off colour at AO 90. And that had not to do with injuries or scandals but simply tennis becoming a job, a chore. It's not a coincidence that her next major prolific phase happened in 95-96. This time, beset by personal issues all around, she sought refuge in tennis. Winning on court was the one thing she could count on for solace and so she doubled down afresh on winning. Of course, she also punished her body to the maximum in this period and hence the never ending injury struggles post-96.

 

[flyingforehands]

That is also part of the whole part regarding Seles though. No player maintained a certain level beyond 3 years max, let alone expanded on it forward. It might have returned at some point, but consecutively never happened. It certainly did not for Graf who greatly declined from her 87-89 level in the early 90s for awhile. It did not happen for Navratilova, although she probably came closest, who began to decline from her insane 82-early 84 level around mid 84. Evert went through lots of up and downs after her initial peak of 74-76/77, although came back stronger than ever at some later points. Serena needlessly to say declined from 2002-2003 level (aided by injuries and personal problems) before climbing back up, and then down again, then up again. Getting into mens examples Federer's peak of peaks probably ran from mid 2004 to mid 2007 sometime, he was clearly showing signs of decline even in early 2007, losing to Canas in back to back Masters, and Nalbandian in back to back Masters, like Navratilova he is the one who came closest to maintaining it longest. Yet diehard Seles fans want us to believe she magically would be the only person in history to not have this happen since she is so super human apparently (lol). Even while dealing with her fathers death which began in early 94, increasing injuries which no way can only be due to the stabbing, and even after seeing her underwhelming (to put it kindly) results in her return to tennis. Not to mention hardly one of the more athletic of the great players, especialy in comparition to Graf, Navratilova, Federer, or Djokovic, the quality most associated with someone who would succeed in this unheard of longevity of peak performance play. And purple pigs are flying through the sky while we are at it.

 

[buscemi]

That is also part of the whole part regarding Seles though. No player maintained a certain level beyond 3 years max, let alone expanded on it forward. It might have returned at some point, but consecutively never happened. It certainly did not for Graf who greatly declined from her 87-89 level in the early 90s for awhile. It did not happen for Navratilova, although she probably came closest, who began to decline from her insane 82-early 84 level around mid 84. Evert went through lots of up and downs after her initial peak of 74-76/77, although came back stronger than ever at some later points. Serena needlessly to say declined from 2002-2003 level (aided by injuries and personal problems) before climbing back up, and then down again, then up again. Getting into mens examples Federer's peak of peaks probably ran from mid 2004 to mid 2007 sometime, he was clearly showing signs of decline even in early 2007, losing to Canas in back to back Masters, and Nalbandian in back to back Masters, like Navratilova he is the one who came closest to maintaining it longest. Yet diehard Seles fans want us to believe she magically would be the only person in history to not have this happen since she is so super human apparently (lol). Even while dealing with her fathers death which began in early 94, increasing injuries which no way can only be due to the stabbing, and even after seeing her underwhelming (to put it kindly) results in her return to tennis. Not to mention hardly one of the more athletic of the great players, especialy in comparition to Graf, Navratilova, Federer, or Djokovic, the quality most associated with someone who would succeed in this unheard of longevity of peak performance play. And purple pigs are flying through the sky while we are at it.

I don't see anyone in this thread arguing that Seles would have continued winning 3 Majors a year, every year, had she not been stabbed. What I see (and what I believe) is that Seles would have continued winning many Majors, with the ebbs and flows that accompany basically every career.

Looking at the women's players you cite:

-Evert won at least a Major a year every year from 1974-1986, and that was w/out playing the Australian Open most years or the French Open in three key years;
-Navratilova won at least a Major a year every year from 1978-1987, except for 1980;
-Graf won at least a Major a year every year from 1987-1996.

So, yeah, it wouldn't shock me to see a non-stabbed Seles having some years where she only won one Major and other years where she won multiple Majors

 

[flyingforehands]

I don't see anyone in this thread arguing that Seles would have continued winning 3 Majors a year, every year, had she not been stabbed. What I see (and what I believe) is that Seles would have continued winning many Majors, with the ebbs and flows that accompany basically every career.

Looking at the women's players you cite:

-Evert won at least a Major a year every year from 1974-1986, and that was w/out playing the Australian Open most years or the French Open in three key years;
-Navratilova won at least a Major a year every year from 1978-1987, except for 1980;
-Graf won at least a Major a year every year from 1987-1996.

So, yeah, it wouldn't shock me to see a non-stabbed Seles having some years where she only won one Major and other years where she won multiple Majors

Atleast one major a year? Yeah maybe until 1996, I don't think beyond that though. It is possible she wins a slam or two past 96, but I think that is where the "atleast 1 slam a year" thing ends for her. 97 and first half of 98 her personal problems were even worse, beyond the stabbing, plus the injuries which might have been 50% related to fitness effects possibly related to the stabbing or whatever but not 100%, which would be unfortunate timing for her as that is when the womens game was the weakest with Graf going down, almost all the veterans collapsing, and the next generation players still non existing minus Hingis. And beyond that is the point she might recover but that is the point the womens game would be the strongest ever until end of 2003, also featuring a slew of horrible match ups (Venus, Serena, Davenport, Hingis to some extent) for her. Graf without her injuries would be better equipped to face this group than Seles would be, as none of those players was as bad a match up for her as they were for Seles. And being that her athleticsm and general career trajectory, even taking into account the stabbing (PS it is worth noting the strongest tennis her comeback was the first 15 months after coming back from the stabbing, good luck somehow reasoning that out to being just due to the stabbing which would be completely illogical in every sense) does not hint at great longevity, I don't see her magically hitting a new peak at the turn of the century to combat this.

And if you come back with "well until 1996 is the part that might effect Graf" which is why I know you will come back with, I never said otherwise and don't care. You Seles fanatics in your insanity always seem to think anyone who disputes Seles was not on a cakewake journey to easy GOAT status without the stabbing (aka atleast 95% of the tennis viewing public) is either a Graf fan (I am not) or someone who is strongly on the Graf GOAT bandwagon (I am definitely not). I don't even believe Graf is the GOAT as it is, I am 100% team Serena, team Court, and to a lesser extent team Navratilova on that, most of all team Serena, so saying "she might have prevented Graf from being GOAT" is a pointless argument to bring to me, as I am not a Graf GOAT backer already. Saying that Graf is the easy choice in a "who is better Graf and Seles" poll or topic, when Seles's only argument is at best inconclusive and iffy chance "what if" questions is very different from saying Graf is the GOAT, something Seles is even much further from being than Graf is.

 

[buscemi]

Atleast one major a year? Yeah maybe until 1996, I don't think beyond that though. It is possible she wins a slam or two past 96, but I think that is where the "atleast 1 slam a year" thing ends for her. 97 and first half of 98 her personal problems were even worse, beyond the stabbing, plus the injuries which might have been 50% related to fitness effects possibly related to the stabbing or whatever but not 100%, which would be unfortunate timing for her as that is when the womens game was the weakest with Graf going down, almost all the veterans collapsing, and the next generation players still non existing minus Hingis. And beyond that is the point she might recover but that is the point the womens game would be the strongest ever until end of 2003, also featuring a slew of horrible match ups (Venus, Serena, Davenport, Hingis to some extent) for her. Graf without her injuries would be better equipped to face this group than Seles would be, as none of those players was as bad a match up for her as they were for Seles. And being that her athleticsm and general career trajectory, even taking into account the stabbing (PS it is worth noting the strongest tennis her comeback was the first 15 months after coming back from the stabbing, good luck somehow reasoning that out to being just due to the stabbing which would be completely illogical in every sense) does not hint at great longevity, I don't see her magically hitting a new peak at the turn of the century to combat this.

And if you come back with "well until 1996 is the part that might effect Graf" which is why I know you will come back with, I never said otherwise and don't care. You Seles fanatics in your insanity always seem to think anyone who disputes Seles was not on a cakewake journey to easy GOAT status without the stabbing (aka atleast 95% of the tennis viewing public) is either a Graf fan (I am not) or someone who is strongly on the Graf GOAT bandwagon (I am definitely not). I don't even believe Graf is the GOAT as it is, I am 100% team Serena, team Court, and to a lesser extent team Navratilova on that, most of all team Serena, so saying "she might have prevented Graf from being GOAT" is a pointless argument to bring to me, as I am not a Graf GOAT backer already. Saying that Graf is the easy choice in a "who is better Graf and Seles" poll or topic, when Seles's only argument is at best inconclusive and iffy chance "what if" questions is very different from saying Graf is the GOAT, something Seles is even much further from being than Graf is.

I don't see any reason for the 1996 cut-off for Seles winning Majors.

In 1997, she lost to Hingis, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 in the French SF and later crushed champion Majoli the only time they played.
In 1998, she lost to ASV in the French final, 7-6, 0-6, 6-2.
In 1999, she lost to eventual champion Graf, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the French SF.

All of those efforts were pretty close to championship level, and that was with the trauma tied to the stabbing and missing 2+ years when she could have been improving her game. I have no idea whether she would have won these Majors had she not been stabbed, but I do think she would have had a shot.

 

[flyingforehands]

I don't see any reason for the 1996 cut-off for Seles winning Majors.

In 1997, she lost to Hingis, 6-7, 7-5, 6-4 in the French SF and later crushed champion Majoli the only time they played.
In 1998, she lost to ASV in the French final, 7-6, 0-6, 6-2.
In 1999, she lost to eventual champion Graf, 6-7, 6-3, 6-4 in the French SF.

All of those efforts were pretty close to championship level, and that was with the trauma tied to the stabbing and missing 2+ years when she could have been improving her game. I have no idea whether she would have won these Majors had she not been stabbed, but I do think she would have had a shot.

I specifically said I think it is possible Seles wins another major or two after 1996, so I don't even disagree with you. What I said I think 1996 is the last year of her streak of "winning atleast 1 major per year" as you put it exactly, not that she couldn't possibly win another major or two after 1996 at some point. I was already well aware reading comprehension is not a strength of Seles fanatics, amongst most other things.