Like it or not, Bullz has a point. Making finals will be the norm for Nadal because he usually gets straightforward draws with no real landmines or guys that can cause him trouble. (There are very few of them anyway, and he mostly somehow manages to avoid them). It also seems like Fed-Nadal in the same half is something that will be a theme for 2012 which again ensures a final spot for Nadal until the USO. Only if Nadal draws Murray, he is not a lock for the final.
And it is more than clear that there is no way Djoker is defending all his 2011 points. The only factor that can tilt the balance here is Murray if he keeps his head together as he is defending pretty much nothing for a while. Federer , not so much, except for the odd good run here and there.