Will we enter the "Non ATG era"?

[Jonas78]

The career inflation era is already a well known concept. But when the two last superstars eventually retire, Djokovic and Nadal, will we enter the non-ATG era?

Are we already seeing it in the WTA? Unseeded players reaching slam finals, and no active ATG-superstar after Serena retired? Of course Iga might end one, but she isnt an ATG yet.

Earlier we have always had the dynamics of older ATGs and new players challenging them.

Its 16 years between Djokovic and the next possible ATG, Alcaraz. Im pretty sure 16 years between two ATGs is unprecedented (by far) in male tennis, and we dont even know if Alcaraz is an ATG yet.

What say you?

 

[MichaelNadal]

I think so tbh. A few millions and a slam or two, and love on social media is all they need.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Nadal retires in 2024 and Djokovic not before 2026

We are still years away from their retirement. A good year and Alcaraz can reach near atg resume. He is already second youngest us open winner I think.

 

[alexio]

if concept of atg is six slams, as theres agreement about, iga basically already atg stuff, a lot of years ahead, if not serious injury or some loss of motivation, its a piece of cake to win just two slams, about guys a similar story

 

[Kralingen]

I will keep repeating this point over and over:

You have 28 Slams, 7 YE #1s, and 364 weeks at #1 up for grabs between now and the end of 2030. Someone has to win those.

Iga and Alcaraz will almost certainly end up ATG in terms of raw accomplishments and stats.

and you could very plausibly see others join them with some improvements.

I guess the real question is whether these numbers will actually place them amongst legends of the game in the minds of TTW netizens.

 

[jl809]

We’ve been spoiled with 3 tier 1 ATGs playing at the same time all winning 20+ slams, so we’re not used to the idea of a tier 2 ATG era with a Lendl or whatever where 8-10 slams is where it’s at

 

[Jonas78]

I will keep repeating this point over and over:

You have 28 Slams, 7 YE #1s, and 364 weeks at #1 up for grabs between now and the end of 2030. Someone has to win those.

Iga and Alcaraz will almost certainly end up ATG in terms of raw accomplishments and stats.

and you could very plausibly see others join them with some improvements.

I guess the real question is whether these numbers will actually place them amongst legends in the game of the TTW netizens.

I beg to differ sir...

Even if Djokodal retired 5 years ago, would we have a new ATG today? All those slams could be won by new players every single time, and inconsistency has been the story all the way sinse Dimitrov. Thats actually the theory of the non ATG era.

 

[Jonas78]

We’ve been spoiled with 3 tier 1 ATGs playing at the same time all winning 20+ slams, so we’re not used to the idea of a tier 2 ATG era with a Lendl or whatever where 8-10 slams is where it’s at

Meeh id say 6 slams is ATG material. In fact, shorter periods between ATGs is the norm. Even give or take 10 years between Sampras/Agassi and Federer was a long time, but 16!!!

 

[nolefam_2024]

I beg to differ sir...

Even if Djokodal retired 5 years ago, would we have a new ATG today? All those slams could be won by new players every single time, and inconsistency has been the story all the way sinse Dimitrov. Thats actually the theory of the non ATG era.

Yes.

Thiem Medvedev both would have been at 3 to 5 slams already and without mental baggage. I know it looks very different thinking these two as atg but thiem was looking good in RG for years and Medvedev has been equally good at hard courts.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Meeh id say 6 slams is ATG material. In fact, shorter periods between ATGs is the norm. Even give or take 10 years between Sampras/Agassi and Federer was a long time, but 16!!!

Sampras stopped growth of any atg and after his decline in 2000 the rest of the tour had chance

 

[Jonas78]

Yes.

Thiem Medvedev both would have been at 3 to 5 slams already and without mental baggage. I know it looks very different thinking these two as atg but thiem was looking good in RG for years and Medvedev has been equally good at hard courts.

Thiem & Medvedev among the names of Becker, Edberg etc makes me kind of sad...

 

[Jonas78]

Sampras stopped growth of any atg and after his decline in 2000 the rest of the tour had chance

Thats not true, one player doesnt stop the growth of others, Big3 were all born within 6 years. Post-Djokovic noone has even shown the slightest consistency. Thiem reached a final one slam to lose R1 the next, and Nadal & a bad crowd was all it took to break Medvedev.

 

[tennis3]

You have 28 Slams, 7 YE #1s, and 364 weeks at #1 up for grabs between now and the end of 2030. Someone has to win those.

Are you saying Djokovic will end up with over 40 Slam titles?

 

[Lozo1016]

Osaka also has a shot to reach ATG status in the future.

 

[SonnyT]

Djokovic, Borg, McEnroe, Nadal and Federer ranked #1-5 in ELO. You know who ranked low? Sampras & Agassi ranked #12 and 15. I read expert analysts who didn't think so highly of Sampras & Agassi.

The next gen, Sinner & Raz, I guess we just have to compare historical ELO.

 

[NeutralFan]

Djokovic, Borg, McEnroe, Nadal and Federer ranked #1-5 in ELO. You know who ranked low? Sampras & Agassi ranked #12 and 15. I read expert analysts who didn't think so highly of Sampras & Agassi.

The next gen, Sinner & Raz, I guess we just have to compare historical ELO.

Same ElO that put Feru's peak higher than Stan's? Lol

 

[nolefam_2024]

Djokovic, Borg, McEnroe, Nadal and Federer ranked #1-5 in ELO. You know who ranked low? Sampras & Agassi ranked #12 and 15. I read expert analysts who didn't think so highly of Sampras & Agassi.

The next gen, Sinner & Raz, I guess we just have to compare historical ELO.

The entire 90s gen is ranked low. Because of surface volatility. I see tennis as this.

Mid 70s to early 80s First time competitive tennis with high money
Mid 80s to early 90s Strongest period with highest game evolution. These were days of youngest prodigies. WOW. Becker Chang Edberg Wilander Sampras Steffi Monica. This entire decade broke records for youngest evers.
Mid 90s to early 2000s Highest surface variations. Lowest elo since the surfaces were so different. Sampras is one tough nut but even he couldn't conquer it all.
Mid 2000s to Mid 2010s Surface homogenizations and strings evolution. High RPMs, death of serve and volley and era of baseliners.
Mid 2010s to Medical evolution. Athletes playing in older ages. Stretching and ballbashing peak. Even more rackets and string evolution.

In all the eras, the mid 90s to early 2000s is the era with lowest elo ratings. Because it was just too tough.

 

[SonnyT]

Why you think surface homogenization got anything to do with Sampras & Agassi having low ELO's? 3 or 4-slam Murray and Vilas out-ELO Sampras.

Mid 90s to early 2000s was not a great era. Big 4 era of late 70s-early 80s and of the 10s were much stronger.

 

[Jonas78]

Osaka also has a shot to reach ATG status in the future.

Sure she can. What im saying is that there is currently no ATG/superstar in the WTA. It always used to be the dynamics of older ATGs being challenged my younger players. Even when Fed beat Agassi USO 2005, it was an older ATG, and it was already pretty clear Fed would become one, he was fighting for his sixth.

Current WTA is a mess, look at the seeds of the semifinalists, there is no consistency. I think its a high probability ATP will end the same. When people talking about Sinner/Alcaraz rivalry being the new Djokovic/Nadal/Federer, lol...

 

[Enceladus]

Yes.

Thiem Medvedev both would have been at 3 to 5 slams already and without mental baggage. I know it looks very different thinking these two as atg but thiem was looking good in RG for years and Medvedev has been equally good at hard courts.

Mental baggage, that's it, you hit the nail on the head with that! New generation players were unable to dethrone them, because the old ATGs were physically strong (one ATG player still is) thanks to modern medicine and don't allowed their younger competitors to build up their confidence. Old ATG players, strengthened by modern medicine, benefited from the experience they have gathered during their careers and stay ahead of the rest of the field. Without the Big 3, Medvedev would be the current king of the HC majors, and the trophies won would boost his self-confidence, and Thiem would not burn out mentally after USO 2020, because he would already have several RG triumphs behind him. The mental aspect is underestimated in tennis.

 

[Enceladus]

Thats not true, one player doesnt stop the growth of others, Big3 were all born within 6 years. Post-Djokovic noone has even shown the slightest consistency. Thiem reached a final one slam to lose R1 the next, and Nadal & a bad crowd was all it took to break Medvedev.

Not one super player, but a triumvirate of super players can oppress the rest of the tour. When one of them has a weaker period (Fed 2013, Rafa 2015-16, Nole 2017-first half of 2018), the other two replace him.

 

[Jonas78]

Not one super player, but a triumvirate of super players can oppress the rest of the tour. When one of them has a weaker period (Fed 2013, Rafa 2015-16, Nole 2017-first half of 2018), the other two replace him.

Nole climbed to the top in 2011 when Federer/Nadal was around. Nole can do it but noone else? Makes InstaGen look even weaker to me.

 

[fedfan24]

I beg to differ sir...

Even if Djokodal retired 5 years ago, would we have a new ATG today? All those slams could be won by new players every single time, and inconsistency has been the story all the way sinse Dimitrov. Thats actually the theory of the non ATG era.

Since 2018 with no big 3-

2018
AO - cilic
RG - Thiem
W - Anderson
USO - Del potro

2019
AO - Tsitsipas
RG - Thiem
W - Bautista Agut? LOL
USO - Medvedev

2020
AO - Thiem
RG - Tsitsipas
USO - Thiem

2021
AO - Medvedev
RG - Tsitsipas
W - Berretini LOL
USO - Medvedev

2022
AO - Medvedev
RG - hahahahahahahaha. Zverev without the injury? Ruud?
W - Kyrgios LOL
USO - Alcaraz

2023
AO - Tsitsipas
RG - Alcaraz without cramps
W - Alcaraz
USO - Medvedev


5 slams for Medvedev
4 slams for Tsitsipas ?
4 slams for Thiem


Bit of a **** show overall, some poor winners levels which shows how dire the competition has been in recent years.

 

[helterskelter]

The career inflation era is already a well known concept. But when the two last superstars eventually retire, Djokovic and Nadal, will we enter the non-ATG era?

Are we already seeing it in the WTA? Unseeded players reaching slam finals, and no active ATG-superstar after Serena retired? Of course Iga might end one, but she isnt an ATG yet.

Earlier we have always had the dynamics of older ATGs and new players challenging them.

Its 16 years between Djokovic and the next possible ATG, Alcaraz. Im pretty sure 16 years between two ATGs is unprecedented (by far) in male tennis, and we dont even know if Alcaraz is an ATG yet.

What say you?

It's true that Alcaraz still has a lot of work to do before he ends up an ATG, but I think Swiatek is already not very far off. If she were to win even one more slam, she would have a case, with five slam titles, two years at number 1 (or 80+ weeks if you prefer to count that way - it already puts her in the top ten in WTA ranking history), the tour finals title, and titles at five different Masters events. And two more slam titles for her would almost certainly suffice.

Davenport is one rung up from her for weeks at #1 and is on 98. Swiatek is currently on 79, and will be at 80 on Monday (4 December). She's then guaranteed the weeks of 11/18/25 December and 1 January, which will see her at 84 weeks as number 1 as we go into the new year. Still 14 behind Davenport, but given that Sabalenka is reigning champion in Australia and that Gauff and Rybakina are several thousand points behind, I think Swiatek's chances of overhauling Davenport within a few months are pretty solid. From there, it's another 20-25 weeks to both Henin (117 weeks) and Barty (121 weeks) and then a long gap to the top six.

 

[martinezownsclay]

The moment Djokovic retires.

 

[Arak]

Being an ATG has no direct relation to number of slams, the slams are a byproduct of someone’s greatness. I know Djokovic fans like numbers but Djokovic is an ATG, and arguably the Goat, if you believe in such a thing, because of his dominance over the field. At the moment, there is no ATG among the active players apart from Djokovic. I don’t think Alcaraz is dominating the tennis scene at the moment. He’s had a brief moment but it’s already gone. On the WTA side, I firmly believe that Barty had everything to be an ATG. I think she can be considered as one despite her self inflicted short lived career. Swiatek with all due respect is not ATG material.

 

[Jonas78]

Since 2018 with no big 3-

2018
AO - cilic
RG - Thiem
W - Anderson
USO - Del potro

2019
AO - Tsitsipas
RG - Thiem
W - Bautista Agut? LOL
USO - Medvedev

2020
AO - Thiem
RG - Tsitsipas
USO - Thiem

2021
AO - Medvedev
RG - Tsitsipas
W - Berretini LOL
USO - Medvedev

2022
AO - Medvedev
RG - hahahahahahahaha. Zverev without the injury? Ruud?
W - Kyrgios LOL
USO - Alcaraz

2023
AO - Tsitsipas
RG - Alcaraz without cramps
W - Alcaraz
USO - Medvedev


5 slams for Medvedev
4 slams for Tsitsipas ?
4 slams for Thiem


Bit of a **** show overall, some poor winners levels which shows how dire the competition has been in recent years.

I actually think Raonic could pick up a couple, dont see 5 for Meddy and 4 for Tsits.

 

[nolefam_2024]

I actually think Raonic could pick up a couple, dont see 5 for Meddy and 4 for Tsits.

Raonic could not win vs Murray who is below big 3 level and in 2016 when Murray was in his 20s. What title did he have a chance.

I don't know if tsitsipas wins 4. It's too high for him. But let's see about Medvedev..

2019 AO decent chance without big 3. Nadal beat Tsitsipas and Nole beat Pouille in semis.
2019 USO more than decent chance without big 3. He beat Dimitrov and Wawrinka. Who was there in QF without him? I don't think thiem made a single qf before 2018 USO outside RG but he lost here early.
So 1 title we can expect.

2020 AO no chance.
2020 USO no chance.

2021 AO decent chance - he could have won vs Zverev because Zverev is a choker..
2021 USO - high chance. He won the title.

So I think he gets 2 here.

2022 AO - surely he wins it.
2022 USO - no chance

So 1 title here.

2023 AO - no chance
2023 USO - surely he wins it here again vs Shelton.

So 1 title here.

5 slams. Wins 3 USO and 2 AO or 4 USO 1 AO.

 

[Jonas78]

Raonic could not win vs Murray who is below big 3 level and in 2016 when Murray was in his 20s. What title did he have a chance.

I don't know if tsitsipas wins 4. It's too high for him. But let's see about Medvedev..

2019 AO decent chance without big 3. Nadal beat Tsitsipas and Nole beat Pouille in semis.y
2019 USO more than decent chance without big 3. He beat Dimitrov and Wawrinka. Who was there in QF without him? I don't think thiem made a single qf before 2018 USO outside RG but he lost here early.
So 1 title we can expect.

2020 AO no chance.
2020 USO no chance.

2021 AO decent chance - he could have won vs Zverev because Zverev is a choker..
2021 USO - high chance. He won the title.

So I think he gets 2 here.

2022 AO - surely he wins it.
2022 USO - no chance

So 1 title here.

2023 AO - no chance
2023 USO - surely he wins it here again vs Shelton.

So 1 title here.

5 slams. Wins 3 USO and 2 AO or 4 USO 1 AO.

You strongly underestimate Raonic vs these crappy youngsters. Dont forget that Raonic reached QFs or deeper 10 times and he only lost to Big4 in 9 of them. He almost certainly would win a slam imo.

I also think Zverev would take at least one.

I agree Med probably would win the most, but i doubt 5...

 

[nolefam_2024]

You strongly underestimate Raonic vs these crappy youngsters. Dont forget that Raonic reached QFs or deeper 10 times and he only lost to Big4 in 9 of them. He almost certainly would win a slam imo.

I also think Zverev would take at least one.

I agree Med probably would win the most, but i doubt 5...

All before 2017 right.

Maybe he reached 1 qf post 2016?

 

[Jonas78]

All before 2017 right.

Maybe he reached 1 qf post 2016?

Milos reached 5 QFs 2017-2020, lost to Big3 in 4 of them.

Edit: nah sorry, 3 of them.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Milos reached 5 QFs 2017-2020, lost to Big3 in 4 of them.

Edit: nah sorry, 3 of them.

Nice. Good for him. I will trust him more than Zverev. But I don't know if he beats Medvedev.

0-3 vs Medvedev.

 

[Jonas78]

Nice. Good for him. I will trust him more than Zverev. But I don't know if he beats Medvedev.

0-3 vs Medvedev.

Yeah but dont think they meet. Meddy didnt enter the scene before late 2020 (except that one USO2019), Raonic was finished by then.

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yeah but dont think they meet. Meddy didnt enter the scene before late 2020 (except that one USO2019), Raonic was finished by then.

Well then

 

[Jonas78]

Well then

Its a real mess if you take away Big3, thats for sure . When will Djoker win his last slam you think?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Its a real mess if you take away Big3, thats for sure

I will only be halfway certain about Thiem and Medvedev


And grass omg we can't imagine who will win on it. RBA ?

 

[Jonas78]

I will only be halfway certain about Thiem and Medvedev


And grass omg we can't imagine who will win on it. RBA ?

Yeah grass is WIDE open lol.

When will Djoker win his last one you think?

 

[nolefam_2024]

Yeah grass is WIDE open lol.

When will Djoker win his last one you think?

Somewhere in 2025 probably. I think he ends on 26 to 27 slams.

 

[nolefam_2024]

How Many More Grand Slams Will Novak Djokovic Win?

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harvardsportsanalysis.org

 

[nolefam_2024]

According to this harward professor Nole should have won 5 more slams post AO 22. So 27.

But now that Nole already is at 24 if I go by his analysis, he still has 4 slams in him. If he can get that then he will end at 28. But I am just trying to have smaller targets for Nole.