Realistically, where do you see Novak ending up now in the history books?

Novak Djokovic is moving at rocket speed past countless tennis legends. Fan rivalries aside, where do you realistically see him ending up?

Right now the gap between him and the field is unprecedented. If I'm being quite conservative I'd say he'll win AT LEAST one more grand slam this year, but possibly two or even three getting him the coveted CYGS slam. He'll also be the favorite for the Olympic gold. I expect him to take no less than 3 masters, but probably more. He's also poised to stay number 1 for the entire year unless he drastically declines for some reason. That being said, some rather conservative estimates might put Djokovic at:

12-13 slams
29-31+ Masters (putting him in first place all time)
~230 weeks at number 1 (putting him close to striking distance of Connors/Lendl)
70+ titles (probably surpassing Nadal, who is at 67 right now)
5 year end number 1's, equaling Federer and being only behind Sampras.
Possible Career grand slam and career golden slam

And that's just 2016.

Let's say 2017, when Djokovic will be 30, he begins to slightly decline. And even if he does, who is going to challenge him for the no. 1 spot? Certainly not a 31 year old Nadal or 36 year old Federer. Murray? probably not. Young guns? They've been a large disappointment. So for this year let's say he's still rather dominate, but not GOATing anymore like he is currently. So, being conservative, let's say he takes 1-2 slams and 2-3 Masters. And finishes at year number one, because, again, who's going to take it from him?

So now he'd tentatively be at:

13-15 slams
32+ masters (completely eclipsing the record)
75-80 titles (Federer has 88 currently)
250-275 weeks at number 1 (being conservative- possibly someone overtakes him for a few weeks). This would put him 3rd all time behind Sampras and Federer.
6 year end number 1's, equally Sampras for first all time, and passing Federer.
Dominant H2H over all rivals.

So, by this point he's clearly within striking distance of becoming GOAT. And let's not forget that Djokovic has shown no signs of wear and tear on his body such as players like Nadal have and may continue to play top level for a long time as Federer has. So let's say after 2017 he won't be on top anymore but he wins about 2 more slams in his career (another conservative estimate IMO). So in the end we have this as a safe bet:

15-17+ slams
34+ masters
270+ weeks at number 1
6 year end number 1s
Dominant H2H over all rivals
Career Golden Slam, possible double career slam.
90+ titles

So, in my opinion, at the very least, Djokovic is on the way to becoming a firm #2 in the GOAT debate, only behind Federer. In these predictions I tried to be realistic yet conservative. He may very well exceed these expectations and become the undisputed GOAT, but I really can't see him doing any worse than the numbers I've laid out here. It really is crazy how someone can skyrocket through the record books in such a short time, but in the past year Djokovic has made a clear case that he is a part of absolute highest tier of players tennis has ever seen.

Four letters. G-O-A-T!

CYGS said:

Four letters. G-O-A-T!

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He has a good shot, if he wins RG this year, I think he can do it.

125downthemiddle said:

He has a good shot, if he wins RG this year, I think he can do it.

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I keep saying one slam at a time. Now I really hope I can witness the Nole Slam happening this year.

I think Paris this year will give us a very clearer idea of where he is likely to stand, if he gets that...

2016 will decide where his place in the history book will be. He might become GOAT by the end of his career if he wins the FO and a 3rd slam this year. A golden CYGS would already put him there, but I don't believe that's possible. It only takes 1 bad day.

Anything short of 19 will be disappointing.

My (relatively ) educated guess is that he finishes 2nd in this era on overall statistics. Ahead of Nadal, but behind Federer.

He will become the GOAT. I think he will win all 4 this year and potentially Olympics also.

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:

He will become the GOAT. I think he will win all 4 this year and potentially Olympics also.

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If I had to guess, I'd say you thought this going into 2014 and 2015 as well. Maybe even 2009 and 2010 if you've been a Djokovic fan when it wasn't so glamorous and easy.

papertank said:

It really is crazy how someone can skyrocket through the record books in such a short time

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It's not crazy if you consider the age/level of people he's competing with. I mean my God and people have the nerve to say that Federer had it easy with prime Hewitt, Nalbandian, Roddick, Safin, Coria, a young Nadal, a still very good Agassi. They would've all occupied the top 10 today with ease.

Steve0904 said:

If I had to guess, I'd say you thought this going into 2014 and 2015 as well. Maybe even 2009 and 2010 if you've been a Djokovic fan when it wasn't so glamorous and easy.

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I remember those days well. However, even back then Djoko, showed great consistency and signs against Nadal and fed but they edged him out in the big moments and points.

Now looking at Djoko and the field, he so far ahead, he got a huge chance to do it! It's gonna take another ala Stan wawrinka beast performance to undo him and that might never show again this year. He was so close last year and I think he gonna be very close again.

Top 3 - with 14-15 slams. Probably won´t surpass Federer so can be No.2 on paper, but many still talk about Laver so even if we assume he si greater - top 3.

He will surpass Nadal - at this moment it´slike 80% chance i would say - probably he would need only 13 slams to equal him with all other important categories speaking for him.

I hope he at least surpasses Emerson's "Slam" count

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:

I remember those days well. However, even back then Djoko, showed great consistency and signs against Nadal and fed but they edged him out in the big moments and points.

Now looking at Djoko and the field, he so far ahead, he got a huge chance to do it! It's gonna take another ala Stan wawrinka beast performance to undo him and that might never show again this year. He was so close last year and I think he gonna be very close again.

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Yeah, he's doing great right now. Another big season looks on the cards. I suppose this would be a bad time to tell you that he didn't even get halfway to the CYGS last year.

In terms of slam wins I am pretty sure he will reach 15 and pass Sampras/Nadal (I don't think Nadal is winning another). Beyond that who knows.

In terms of year end #1s I see him ending 2016 and 2017 at #1 atleast, so atleast 6 (or 7 for those who go by the ITF ruling). Beyond that who knows.

Steve0904 said:

Yeah, he's doing great right now. Another big season looks on the cards. I suppose this would be a bad time to tell you that he didn't even get halfway to the CYGS last year.

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Yes but he was 1 away overall and it's the FO that has haunted him over the years. If he can get the job done there, I think he will do it. Plus if he does win the French he will have done the NCYGS. Which neither fed or Rafa did. So once again, it's gonna be a huge tournament of destiny at the French for Djoko.

tennis_pro said:

It's not crazy if you consider the age/level of people he's competing with. I mean my God and people have the nerve to say that Federer had it easy with prime Hewitt, Nalbandian, Roddick, Safin, Coria, a young Nadal, a still very good Agassi. They would've all occupied the top 10 today with ease.

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Lol at Coria

Steve0904 said:

Yeah, he's doing great right now. Another big season looks on the cards. I suppose this would be a bad time to tell you that he didn't even get halfway to the CYGS last year.

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But he's 75% on his way to the Nole Slam.

Steve0904 said:

My (relatively ) educated guess is that he finishes 2nd in this era on overall statistics. Ahead of Nadal, but behind Federer.

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Seems like a good prediction.

Djokovic_is_the_best#1 said:

Yes but he was 1 away overall and it's the FO that has haunted him over the years. If he can get the job done there, I think he will do it. Plus if he does win the French he will have done the NCYGS. Which neither fed or Rafa did. So once again, it's gonna be a huge tournament of destiny at the French for Djoko.

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What do you mean by "1 away overall?" In a general sense maybe, but if he had won RG last year the pressure would've been greater at Wimbledon. 1 away overall would be suitable to this argument if he had lost the USO final, not the RG one.

jm1980 said:

Lol at Coria

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Coria vs Moya (who just won Rome) at the FO in 2004 - Coria in straight sets, can't find a vid

Name consistently better clay courters today than 2003-2005 Coria.

tennis_pro said:

Name consistently better clay courters today than 2003-2005 Coria.

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Too bad he played Fed a grand total of 3 times and only twice on clay (Hamburg x2)

How is that a legitimate rival?

jm1980 said:

Too bad he played Fed a grand total of 3 times and only twice on clay

How is that a legitimate rival?

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That's because Federer wasn't good enough to reach him more often, doesn't take anything away from Coria who was one of the best clay courters in the world for a couple of years. If Coria was 22 now I'd count him as a Djokovic rival on clay of course.

As I said, name better consistently better clay courters today than Coria.

Recently I went back a few times to the moment after the FO 2014 final. Djokovic had 6 Slams and was losing finals everywhere. Nadal had 14 (more than double of Djokovic's tally back then). It was a disgusting feeling. And everything that was going on in the 5th set of the Wimbledon final that year...
Now, less than two years after that point, Djokovic stands at 11 and Nadal seems very much reachable. How did things change so quickly I have no idea. But these are great times and all Novak fans should enjoy them while they last. I mean, did any of you think 2 years ago that he would achieve all of this? I doubt it.
A very interesting remainder of the year is ahead of us, especially Roland Garros. My guess is he will not win it, but at other Slams he will win again in the future, and will tie Nadal.

He is 29 by the next slam - I think people forget that a little bit - pretty much every player fades after 28 or close to that. By the end of the year he will pretty much have had 6 years at No 1 (other than 2013 where he was close 2). He is due an injury of some type surely.

History tells us he will fade as did Federer, Sampras, Nadal, etc. It tends to happen pretty suddenly aswell.

However there doesn't seem to be anyone ready to take over or close to it. He seems invincible.

I am confused myself - I am too sure how he will finish - I am going to say he will finish with 15 or 16 slams but not surprised if he finishes with 13 or 18!!

He's on 11 now, so I see Novak at his present peak winning 14 or 15 Slams at least. He's giving great players like Federer and Murray Grand Slam thrashings...Given he's 28, coming up to 29, can Novak reach Federer's 17? Not sure. He may and it's possible, but even the greatest have shown a history of slowing down at 30+ so it'll probably be the same even for Novak. He also has to stay injury-free and as motivated as ever too. He has a shot at the Grand Slam for 2016 though with the Aussie Open in the bag. He made all four finals last year. He can definitely complete the feat of holding all 4 GS titles at once in Paris in June which even Federer, or Nadal, didn't achieve. He has to overcome the Paris obstacle and that might be in his mind. Novak needs the French for all-court greatness and three Wimbledon titles in a row would bolster his legacy too. For me, a 2016 Grand Slam would make Novak the greatest of the Open era and he'd probably add more too. If he wins the French and one other Slam this year, that's another 3 Slam season, 13 Slams and a clay court Major. With his dominant no1 standing and weeks at no.1, successive years as ITF World Champ, and his ATP World Tour Finals, Masters titles successes etc, Djokovic is closing in on the very top Open era elite. He's level with Borg for GS wins now and left Connors, McEnroe and Lendl far behind...man...

Very close to Federer (possibly above). Surely above Nadal.

irishnadalfan1983 said:

History tells us he will fade as did Federer, Sampras, Nadal, etc. It tends to happen pretty suddenly aswell.

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Great players don't fade suddenly. They fade gradually.
Think about Nadal. He collapsed in 2015 but from 2014 he had shown signs of unstableness. He had bad clay seasons losing left and right and only won RG by margin. He made no impact at other surfaces.
So even in Nadal's case he showed signs of collapse for at least one year beforehand.
Now, look at Djokovic do u see any sign of slown down? I only see him rising. We can safely say he will be no1 for a very long time ahead.

NGM said:

Great players don't fade suddenly. They fade gradually.
Think about Nadal. He collapsed in 2015 but from 2014 he had shown signs of unstableness. He had bad clay seasons losing left and right and only won RG by margin. He made no impact at other surfaces.
So even in Nadal's case he showed signs of collapse for at least one year beforehand.
Now, look at Djokovic do u see any sign of slown down? I only see him rising. We can safely say he will be no1 for a very long time ahead.

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Nadal realistically was on slow decline since 2012 atleast (some would argue since 2011). He still won another 4-5 majors, and returned to YE#1 once. You are right, great players don't just collapse normally. When Djokovic's fade begins (which clearly hasn't yet) he still wont be done right away. It took Nadal a long time to be done, if he now is, even when his fade began.

Slams are not everything. Context, contex, context.

He's blown past Nadal in my mind due to the WTFs and #1 ranking.

NGM said:

Great players don't fade suddenly. They fade gradually.
Think about Nadal. He collapsed in 2015 but from 2014 he had shown signs of unstableness. He had bad clay seasons losing left and right and only won RG by margin. He made no impact at other surfaces.
So even in Nadal's case he showed signs of collapse for at least one year beforehand.
Now, look at Djokovic do u see any sign of slown down? I only see him rising. We can safely say he will be no1 for a very long time ahead.

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Ummmm. I'd argue he suddenly did fall off post Australia 2014 and it wasn't very gradual - HOWEVER lets not get into that.

Absolutely no signs of Nole fading other than his birth certificate really and history tells us 28ish tends to be a key age and he is past it soon.

However you are dead right - he could dominate for another few years - I don't know and I am surprised people seem 100% convinced he will continue at this pace.

Everyone thought Woods would get too 18, Nadal was a certainty for 17+, Man
UTD would always be competing for the Premiership, etc.

You never know in sport and this dominance won't go on forever even though it doesn't feel like it at the moment.

He may defy history - I don't know! My gut feeling says he has to fade sometime in the next 12-18 months and can't keep this up much longer but who knows!

There is the possibility that Djokovic is playing at the highest level of any player in history now. He is one of the rare players who has no weaknesses. His serve and his volle is even better now until Becker's guidance.

His groundstrokes and speed are incredible. It's an unbelievable combination of power, spin and consistency. He has incredible mobility and his stamina is now great. It is a pity he had the gluten problem early that he did not know about. Perhaps his record would be even better now.

For peak level of play he is up there with anyone.

Relatively speaking in tennis history very few can match this sort of dominance. There are some but very few. If Djokovic wins the French in May and I believe he has a great chance, well the chances for the Grand Slam would be very good.

I will let u know after 2016-17. I really think he will slow down soon. He won't have federer's longevity because his game's not fit for it.

ACE of Hearts said:

I will let u know after 2016-17. I really think he will slow down soon. He won't have federer's longevity because his game's not fit for it.

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Why? He was never injured unlike Nadal. I think Djokovic will play for years.

ACE of Hearts said:

I will let u know after 2016-17. I really think he will slow down soon. He won't have federer's longevity because his game's not fit for it.

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He has just proved your claim is not right by winning three slams after turning 28 years old almost a year before.

I consider myself a Nole fan but I don't think he will reach or even come close to 17 slams. Then again I don't think he needs to. He is already an ATG and has shown that, at his best, he can play and beat anyone.

I really don't get this obsession with the historical rankings. Why not just accept there is a group of very top players and enjoy them at their best?

I missed today's Grand Finale.....Was Novak as dominant as he was against someone from Switzerland?

pc1 said:

There is the possibility that Djokovic is playing at the highest level of any player in history now. He is one of the rare players who has no weaknesses. His serve and his volle is even better now until Becker's guidance.

His groundstrokes and speed are incredible. It's an unbelievable combination of power, spin and consistency. He has incredible mobility and his stamina is now great. It is a pity he had the gluten problem early that he did not know able. Perhaps his record would be even better now.

For peak level of play he is up there with anyone.

Relatively speaking in tennis history very few can match this sort of dominance. There are some but very few. If Djokovic wins the French in May and I believe he has a great chance, well the chances for the Grand Slam would be very good.

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Uoset

Cortana said:

Why? He was never injured unlike Nadal. I think Djokovic will play for years.

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Look at his style. If u think that djokovic won't slow down then your senile.

Will probably win calender this year. These cowards are not even close to being up for the task. Wasn't that pathetic excuse of a player Giles Simon SMILING at the end of the match when he mugged it up? Lmao.

NGM said:

He has just proved your claim is not right by winning three slams after turning 28 years old almost a year before.

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He's late bloomer. Lets see how many slams he will win at 30. Keep in mind as well that nadal and federer have been on the downside. Not his
fault but that's a big plus for him

Cortana said:

2016 will decide where his place in the history book will be. He might become GOAT by the end of his career if he wins the FO and a 3rd slam this year. A golden CYGS would already put him there, but I don't believe that's possible. It only takes 1 bad day.

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I think he's going for it and has a pretty good chance. I mean, I think it is his main go for this year. Now or never.

Lets assume he is clean not Armstrong of tennis and most importantly not caught,ı cant see anyone who can stop him in anywhere. Even Fed has Nadal problem thats starts first on clay 2005 by the time it is 2007 epic final in Wimbledon which Fed won but Nadal shows he is going to be a huge problem for Fed outside of clay as well. Novak at the moment doesnt have this kind of rival Fed used to have it.Novak very highly unlikely will shell shocked like Nadal in 2011 against someone rising the performance in an amazing way like Novak did against Nadal in 2011 and catch him with huge surprise. Without Rafa Fed would have won probably 24 major titles. Without Novak and injury problems Rafa would have won more than 20. Since Novak at the moment doesnt have this kind of rival and looks injury free player like Fed sky will be the limit for him.

killerboi2 said:

Will probably win calender this year. These cowards are not even close to being up for the task. Wasn't that pathetic excuse of a player Giles Simon SMILING at the end of the match when he mugged it up? Lmao.

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100 UFEs smh and he wins the match

I think, he didn't even play his best today. Too far behind the baseline for my liking. Against Federer, he moved much more into the baseline aeria, and pressed Fed out of court. I think, Murray had good chances today to dictate with his forehand and make an upset, but his whole body language (and his verbal language, too) is too negative for his own sake. Within the next two years, Nole could win around 5 further Majors, which would set him up for an attack on Federer's record. Problem is, that nobody out ouf the 22-26 years age group can challenge at the moment. Raonic has a big serve, has a good forehand and volley, but is still very slow, and prone to injuries. Maybe he could cause an upset in a Wim quarter or semi, like a Tanner some years back. Nishikori is very unstable and also prone to injuries. Cilic is Nole's pigeon. If Wawrinka is really on a hot streak with his big punishing backhand, he could beat Nole again at RG. Hopefully Nadal can find some of his old clay form, to get into contention at RG. But Nole has his number now. And old Fed can challenge Nole only in best of 3 on a fast hard court.

urban said:

I think, he didn't even play his best today. Too far behind the baseline for my liking. Against Federer, he moved much more into the baseline aeria, and pressed Fed out of court. I think, Murray had good chances today to dictate with his forehand and make an upset, but his whole body language (and his verbal language, too) is too negative for his own sake. Within the next two years, Nole could win around 5 further Majors, which would set him up for an attack on Federer's record. Problem is, that nobody out ouf the 22-26 years age group can challenge at the moment. Raonic has a big serve, has a good forehand and volley, but is still very slow, and prone to injuries. Maybe he could cause an upset in a Wim quarter or semi, like a Tanner some years back. Nishikori is very unstable and also prone to injuries. Cilic is Nole's pigeon. If Wawrinka is really on a hot streak with his big punishing backhand, he could beat Nole again at RG. Hopefully Nadal can find some of his old clay form, to get into contention at RG. But Nole has his number now. And old Fed can challenge Nole only in best of 3 on a fast hard court.

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Urban,

That's the amazing thing about Djokovic. Even when he plays below or sometime way below his average level he usually wins. Murray, if he was more mentally tough I believe could challenge Djokovic. Perhaps he should beg Lendl to come back.

I've just seen this story too many times. A great player is on a run and everyone acts like there's no end in sight.

They all come down. Historically, it's not so much about the age but how long they've been on tour. Djokovic is over a decade now. Borg was too as he started early.

Federer, in hindsight, had 3 legitimate years to capture the Calendar Slam (05,06 & 09) and even then never made it halfway there in any season. Jim Courier in 1992 is the last guy to win the first two Slams. Think about that please. But even giving Djokovic a Calendar Slam once, it doesn't mean he can do it again or that 3/4 seasons are on the horizon. So if he's not doing that, how many is he going to win? Tennis, for this reason, is a harsh mistress.

If you aren't the best, you might be winning nothing. Look at Andy Murray.

I think Djokovic will end up with 14-16 majors, and he will start declining soon so if he's got a chance at a CYGS, this is his last year to achieve it. If he gets the CYGS this year, which will also mean 6 majors in a row, he'll be at 14 majors and clearly second best all time. I don't think he'll win the CYGS, but he's got a decent shot.

Algo said:

Anything short of 19 will be disappointing.

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Are you for real? Nobody wins that many slams after turning 28.