Roger Federer and the 18th major

Krish872007 said:

It would be cool if you are right. No one else seems to give Federer a chance at all, and I'm sure the man himself would be incredibly disappointed by most of his so-called fans who think that he'll go down without a fight. Make no mistake, he wants this one for sure.

Whatever happens here, as long as he stays healthy throughout the year, I like his chances at Wimbledon (regardless of opponent).

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Gazelle said:

If Federer doesn't believe in himself, he can't expect his fans to do so.

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Gazelle said:

If Federer doesn't believe in himself, he can't expect his fans to do so.

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icedevil0289 said:

ofc federer believes in himself. at times he might look shaky, go for the wrong shots and shank against certain opponents, but overall imo his belief is very strong and it pretty much a main reason for him playing. fed has said time ago, he still has that hunger for another slam win and believes he can do it, and that is a big motivation in playing.

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Gazelle said:

He has the hunger. But I haven't seen the belief since Wimbledon 2014. I've long time ago accepted that #18 will never happen. Yes, Fed will have these tournaments where he seems in good form, reaches semis/finals, primed to win. Loses eventually. He gets too tight when a slam win seems near. Fed's game doesn't work when tight.

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Krish872007 said:

I'm sure he believes in himself. He cannot rely on others to protect records - he knows he has to deal with things himself and win big.

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TahoeTennis said:

I have to unjinx your jinx. Fed will indeed win 18!!! Vamos!!!

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Gazelle said:

Omg, you have Rafa and three of his bunnies left in the semis. Why bother with jinxing? If I were a Rafa fan I would already be partying right now. Can't believe Rafa fans are so insecure. The only thing he has to do to win this AO is avoid breaking his leg.

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icedevil0289 said:

maybe at wimbledon.....maybe even at USO. I mean, I definitely don't believe he has 0 chances here ofc and he has surpassed all my expectations, but if he had to get no.18, idk if AO would be it. however, would be quite hilarious if he got 18 at FO of all places. I just hope fed plays without pressure. He never seemed to have any expectations here and I know that he plans his schedule around peaking for wimbledon. In fact, based on some pressers/quotes the man definitely thinks and knows he has better chances at wimbledon/USO but most of all I just hope he is healthy and keeps playing

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TahoeTennis said:

Yes like Rafa, I get very nervous and have a heart attack watching all of his matches. So I have to have triple reverse pyschology and always bet against him, thus I am quite joyous when he wins.

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Luminaire said:

Best scenario of all= beat Nadal to win the FO

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Gazelle said:

Omg, you have Rafa and three of his bunnies left in the semis. Why bother with jinxing? If I were a Rafa fan I would already be partying right now. Can't believe Rafa fans are so insecure. The only thing he has to do to win this AO is avoid breaking his leg.

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beast of mallorca said:

Rafa fans are not insecure, Chichi. They're just realistic. We don't count a win until Rafa actually does. Yah know what I mean

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Krish872007 said:

It would be cool if you are right. No one else seems to give Federer a chance at all, and I'm sure the man himself would be incredibly disappointed by most of his so-called fans who think that he'll go down without a fight. Make no mistake, he wants this one for sure and he will do what he can.

Whatever happens here, as long as he stays healthy throughout the year, I like his chances at Wimbledon (regardless of opponent).

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Steve0904 said:

I seriously admire the OP's belief. Let's start with that. However, I can't take issue with anyone who says otherwise either because it doesn't make you less of a Federer fan if you don't think he'll win another major. He's 35 and he can't win them forever or every time he makes SF's. And personally I've been content with 17 for years now.

As far as the lack of belief against Nadal goes, I just think it's understandable. Not disappointing really. It's only disappointing that the matches are so predictable now. If Federer can change that at this AO then you can all laugh at me for my lack of belief and quote all my posts saying so back to me because at that point I won't give a flying fck. The truth is I'm tired of having the belief that he can beat Nadal here when nothing of consequence suggests otherwise. I've had that belief before. I had at Wimbledon 2008. I had it at AO 2009, I even had it at AO 2012. I'm just tired of saying things for the sake of saying them. Like Federer has a chance against Nadal if he does this, this, and this. So I'm past the point of trying to figure out what a "real" Federer fan is depending on how they respond on an internet forum to a match against Nadal. Because one response shows very little belief, but is probably the most realistic, and the other is just undying hope and prayer that somehow someway he can beat Nadal. Even Andy Roddick said it on ESPN a couple nights ago. "I like Roger (to win the title) as long as he doesn't have to play Rafa." And that's from an unbiased observer.

And I'm not a big believer in numerology or whatever they're calling it these days. Federer will win this title if he plays well enough to beat 2 more opponents. Simple as that.

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eliars said:

Let's see if Nadal gets to Fed first of all. And if Fed even gets to the final. People are being premature.

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Steve0904 said:

Absolutely they are. I'm just giving my thoughts on the Nadal match up. Never meant to imply that either of them are locks for the final because they're not.

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Krish872007 said:

It would be cool if you are right. No one else seems to give Federer a chance at all, and I'm sure the man himself would be incredibly disappointed by most of his so-called fans who think that he'll go down without a fight. Make no mistake, he wants this one for sure and he will do what he can.

Whatever happens here, as long as he stays healthy throughout the year, I like his chances at Wimbledon (regardless of opponent).

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Gazelle said:

Omg, you have Rafa and three of his bunnies left in the semis. Why bother with jinxing? If I were a Rafa fan I would already be partying right now. Can't believe Rafa fans are so insecure. The only thing he has to do to win this AO is avoid breaking his leg.

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KINGROGER said:

I have Fed as favourite vs any potential final opponent.



Pathetic post. Fed and Wawrinka are not Rafa's bunnies, unless we're in the year 08 or 13. But this is 2017, keep up.

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The Fedfather said:

We don't think Federer would go down without a fight but that doesn't mean he has a good chance to win. He couldn't play his best in recent finals against Djokovic and he sure as hell won't play his best against Nadal.

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eliars said:

Good. I think Fed has himself as the favourite if he's to play Nadal in the final too. I know somebody who loves being the favourite, but I know someone who loves being the underdog even more.

And yeah, the SFs are more or less wide open. Rafa by no means has this one in the bag. That's ludicrous.

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KINGROGER said:

Honestly if this was 2011-2014 then I'd have no issue saying Rafa is clear favourite at the AO. However Fed's serve is better than it has ever been, he's playing better tactically and aggressively than ever and I don't think Rafa can exploit his backhand like he used to, especially with his declined movement.

I'd go 55/45 in Fed's favour but either way think it would be an amazing final and I'll try and swap a work shift to watch it should it happen.

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eliars said:

I get your optimism and it does sound reasonable. But that's what it does most of the time when the two meet, right? Back in 2012 Fed had Nadal figured out because he was applying Djokovic' tactics of pinning Nadal to the backhand side and hitting a few extra shots there, before hitting into the open court. Then there were hopes and arguments as to how Fed was going to beat Nadal at 2014 AO, because he had Edberg in his corner and now a more aggressive mindset. And I bet you we've heard that in the past too.

Yeah Nadal has had the 2015-16 season. But Nadal is playing better at the moment. We'll see if they even get to play each other. A hungry Swiss and Bulgarian stand in the way...

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KINGROGER said:

TBH Fed should've won in 2012 as I think he played the better match but Rafa clutched it. Fed was constantly up a break before something would happen and he'd lose it. Like when Rafa hit that lucky lob that caught the baseline.

In 2014 Rafa was still prime and Fed was coming off the back off a terrible season and only just had hired Edberg. Shanghai Fed wouldve stood a better chance.

As for now Rafa has looked impressive but don't think he's as good as in his prime but closer to it than since any of 15/16 for sure.

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Gazelle said:

It's good that you have an excuse for every Fed loss. I'm sure you'll find a new one after sunday.

Yes, Fed should have won in 2012 - but he didn't.
Yes, Rafa made a few lucky shots - and probably will again.

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KINGROGER said:

Not every loss. For example in 2008 Rafa owned him fair and square at RG (then Fed tanked after 1 set). Same with their 2014 AO encounter. Just destroyed him.

But Rafa isn't in his prime anymore. He no longer has the movement or FH to exploit Fed's OHBH. And this surface is playing faster meaning = advantage Fed.

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Gazelle said:

Don't forget Roger isn't in his prime anymore either. He's great at looking all prime again and then we have Wilander saying he's better than ever. In fact he's a lot weaker, but with his new game it takes top players to really expose his increased weaknesses. If one player can expose those, it's Nadal, even a weaker one.

I also don't think the surface is that fast. Maybe slightly faster, but not so much. Against Nadal it won't matter, he will start moonballing and the surface will look as slow as ever.

I'd love to have your confidence in Federer, I used to have that in the past, see how that turned out usually.

Anyway, I'll keep supporting Fed (although I'll probably miss the final cause I planned a tennis match on sunday) and hope he beats Wawrinka. I don't like the chicken out route some take in hoping he loses to Wawrinka so he won't meet Nadal.

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Krish872007 said:

Let's see, I guess.
As I said, step by step - if Federer and Nadal both win their semi-final matches, I will present my thoughts in full in the Final thread.

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Pagoo said:

First, how will Federer approach his SF match knowing Nadal could be his opponent in the final? Federer like everyone else knows Nadal is the big favorite in his match against Grigor.

A part of me would like to see him break the SF rut (he's lost the last 5), but I would be lying if I said I want to see a match with Nadal. I do not...not now, not ever. So as a fan that would like Federer to do well, I'm conflicted.

But of course, there's a real chance Federer could have no say. Wawrinka can decide to show up and blow Federer off the court too.

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weakera said:

OP relies strongly on emotion and not logic. Never a good thing unless you are a bit off in the head.

Roger has been kicking around playing competitive but unspectacular tennis for years now. There is every chance that eventually the right combination of factors (somewhat elevated play, favorable draw, top seeds losing) plays out for him to secure 18. However logic would also tell us that he has two very tough matches to come. So he is not there yet.

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Gazelle said:

I had that strong intuitive feeling during Wimbledon 2014. My strong intuitive feelings usually end in a close final loss.

Close but no cigar.

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FiReFTW said:

Federer does not have the loser mentality that you do, glad you didn't play any sports professionaly because ud waste ur time with that mentality.
Fed's mentality is a mentality of winners and champions, otherwise he would not win any grandslams, and that mentality is to win, and to beat anyone, he doesn't think about avoiding someone, thats ridciilous, infact im willing to be he wants rafa in the final more than anything, to have a shot at him.
He did not avoid Rafa in all those clay matches, where rafa now leads like 13-2 or something? and some ppl here really believe he is thinking about avoidin him now on a hard court, some people here really are amazing.

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KINGROGER said:

Not every loss. For example in 2008 Rafa owned him fair and square at RG (then Fed tanked after 1 set). Same with their 2014 AO encounter. Just destroyed him.

But Rafa isn't in his prime anymore. He no longer has the movement or FH to exploit Fed's OHBH. And this surface is playing faster meaning = advantage Fed.

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Feather said:

I strongly feel that Roger Federer will win this major. I have an intuitive feeling like that. I said this during Wimbledon 2012 in the very same group. I think @sbengte still remembers this and she has quoted that many times

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Feather said:

I strongly feel that Roger Federer will win this major. I have an intuitive feeling like that. I said this during Wimbledon 2012 in the very same group. I think @sbengte still remembers this and she has quoted that many times

Pete Sampras was also 17th seed when he won his elusive major. He beat his arch rival Andre Agassi. After winning Wimbledon 2012, Roger couldn't win in 17 majors. This is his 18th chance. 18 in 18th chance

I have full confidence in the maestro. Allez Roger Federer

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Steve0904 said:

I seriously admire the OP's belief. Let's start with that. However, I can't take issue with anyone who says otherwise either because it doesn't make you less of a Federer fan if you don't think he'll win another major. He's 35 and he can't win them forever or every time he makes SF's. And personally I've been content with 17 for years now.

As far as the lack of belief against Nadal goes, I just think it's understandable. Not disappointing really. It's only disappointing that the matches are so predictable now. If Federer can change that at this AO then you can all laugh at me for my lack of belief and quote all my posts saying so back to me because at that point I won't give a flying fck. The truth is I'm tired of having the belief that he can beat Nadal here when nothing of consequence suggests otherwise. I've had that belief before. I had at Wimbledon 2008. I had it at AO 2009, I even had it at AO 2012. I'm just tired of saying things for the sake of saying them. Like Federer has a chance against Nadal if he does this, this, and this. So I'm past the point of trying to figure out what a "real" Federer fan is depending on how they respond on an internet forum to a match against Nadal. Because one response shows very little belief, but is probably the most realistic, and the other is just undying hope and prayer that somehow someway he can beat Nadal. Even Andy Roddick said it on ESPN a couple nights ago. "I like Roger (to win the title) as long as he doesn't have to play Rafa." And that's from an unbiased observer.

And I'm not a big believer in numerology or whatever they're calling it these days. Federer will win this title if he plays well enough to beat 2 more opponents. Simple as that.

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