Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Nadal, Australian Open final 2012

Heidi4tennis said:

2010uso and 2013uso versions of Rafael are too good for any version of Djokovic, because Djokovic can't handle Rafael's forehand-down-the-line
2012ao version of Rafael was the low-confidence version because he'd lost their last 6 meetings....

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Pantera said:

The key stat was 2nd serve points won.

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aman92 said:

Yep his serving, especially the second serve were extremely poor. Just 45% of second serve points won tell you the story.

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Waspsting said:

Novak Djokovic beat Rafael Nadal 5-7, 6-4, 6-2, 6-7(5), 7-5 in the Australian Open final, 2012 on hard court

It was the third Slam final in a row (and seventh time in a row) that Djokovic defeated Nadal - and the two would go on to play in the French Open final afterwards (which Nadal would win)

Djokovic won 193 points, Nadal 176

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (99/166) 60%
- 1st serve points won (67/99) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (43/67) 64%
- Aces 9, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (38/166) 23%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (137/203) 67%
- 1st serve points won (90/137) 66%
- 2nd serve points won (30/66) 45%
- Aces 10, Service Winners 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (55/203) 27%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 33%
- to BH 66%
- to Body 1%

Nadal served....
- to FH 38%
- to BH 56%
- to Body 1%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 143 (63 FH, 80 BH), including 5 runaround FHs
- 5 Winners (3 FH, 2 BH)
- 43 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (5 FH, 6 BH), including 2 runaround FH attempts
- 32 Forced (12 FH, 20 BH)
- Return Rate (143/199) 72%

Nadal made...
- 126 (41 FH, 85 BH), including 7 runaround FHs
- 28 Errors, comprising...
- 10 Unforced (6 FH, 4 BH)
- 18 Forced (5 FH, 13 BH)
- Return Rate (126/164) 77%

Break Points
Djokovic 7/20 (13 games)
Nadal 4/6 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 47 (31 FH, 11 BH, 3 FHV, 2 BHV)
Nadal 32 (20 FH, 5 BH, 3 FHV, 1 BHV, 3 OH)

Djokovic's FHs were - 7 cc, 9 dtl, 10 inside-out (3 returns) and 3 drop shots (1 at net)

- BHs - 3 cc (1 not clean and 1 a return) 4 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-in return + 1 dtl pass

- 1 FHV was a swinging shot, 1 was very low (almost a half-volley) and 1 BHV was a drop

Nadal's FHs were - 5 dtl, 13 inside-out (including 1 at net) and 2 inside-in

- BHs - 1 cc, 3 dtl + 1 cc pass

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 86
- 50 Unforced (27 FH, 22 BH, 1 OH)
- 36 Forced (19 FH, 15 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Nadal 104
- 45 Unforced (23 FH, 21 BH, 1 OH)
- 59 Forced (43 FH, 16 BH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.9

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented for these two matches are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was 17/22 (77%) at net, including 0/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point).
He was 1/1 when forced back from net

Nadal was 16/19 (84%) at net, including 1/1 serve-volleying (a first serve point).
He was 0/1 when forced back
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Match Report
The greatest match ever played? Very possibly. Its a brutal baseline slugfest and both players play tremendously consistent - while Djokovic also takes the offensive too. High level of consistency, aggression vs defence (occasionally Nadal steps up to attacking too), and going down to the wire.... what more could you ask for?

Djokovic is clearly the better player overall - but it does go down to the wire and the ultimate result is never a certainty. Even when serving out for the match, the Serb faces a break point (which is rare for him in this match)

In the first set, Djokovic is sluggish. His movements are those of a tired man and he not infrequently makes return errors. Nadal by contrast is extremely consistent on the return. Djokovic is the aggressor, Nadal is passive... but the Spaniard steps it up in hitting big groundstrokes to gain the decisive break

In the second, a different Djokovic emerges. He's all business and plays a wonderful combination of solid and aggressive. He forces errors with powerful and deep groundstrokes (usually to Nadal's FH, especially with the FH inside-out). He ups his serve and starts eliciting more return errors. He starts taking apart the Nadal serve with thundering returns. And he gains the decisive break with a low as you can get FHV winner - any lower and it'd have been a half-volley.

Third set goes like the second. Djokovic aggressive and dominant and Nadal passive - and the Serb sweeps it

Fourth is even more commanding form Djokovic. He doesn't even bother to come to net because he can out muscle his rival from the baseline. Whereas earlier he'd focused his attack to the Nadal BH, now he seems to hit wherever he feels like - and he's still clearly the better player. Nonetheless, Nadal hangs tough and steps up the aggression in the tiebreaker, which he wins to push the match into a fifth

The fifth is the most competitive of the match. Both men are obviously tired (Djokovic makes no pains to disguise this and looks ready to drop, but Nadal is obviously moving slower too). When stepping up to the baseline and being aggressive, Nadal is at his best.... but he tends to fall back on passivity, seemingly waiting for Djokovic to make errors. Tired or not, Djokovic still plays his game of consistent powerful and deep hitting, but Nadal is more willing to step up himself than he has been for most of the match. Nadal goes up a break, but can't consolidate. Nadal missing an easy BH pass winner from mid-court proves to be the key point, as the Serb breaks back... generally speaking, Nadal is too quick to fall back on 'waiting for an error' tennis when he's ahead - and it costs him

Summing up - glorious consistent/attacking stuff from Novak Djokovic, Nadal hanging tough defensively to keep things even score wise - and ultimately, the better player on the day emerging the winner

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NatF said:

One thing I've noticed is that your number of UE's is drastically lower than the official and TA stats.

TA has 64 UE for Djokovic and 63 for Nadal, official stats have 69 for Djokovic and 71 for Nadal - where as you have 50 and 45.

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Waspsting said:

Interesting. I thought I was a fairly harsh judge of UEs

Do the TA and official figures include return errors and double faults? I have 13 for Djokovic and 14 for Nadal on those... which would move their totals to Djokovic 63, Nadal 59 - not far from the TA and official figures

I find Djokovic a particularly difficult guy to differentiate errors for

To judge forced or unforced errors, I look at a few things
- power
- placement
- depth
- shot choice

now, placement is the easiest one to judge... if a guy has to run to the ball or is on the stretch when he makes his shot, that's pretty easy to call a forced error

Djokovic though is a closed court player who tends to hit powerfully and deep - but not so overtly powerfully that its obviously draws a forced error (like say, del Potro's shots)

The errors Djoko tends to draw from his routine groundstrokes (flat, powerful, deep but within reach)… I can see them rationally being counted as forced or unforced. I'd expect more variance across different stats takers for his matches than say, Roger Federer - who tends to draw errors via placement

That seems to be what's going on here... I see the biggest discrepancy between my numbers and the ones you provided are Nadal's UEs....he made a lot of errors to deep, flat balls hit close to him... I do hesitate to call those 'unforced'

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Waspsting said:

Generally, 2nd serve points won is an indicator of quality of play. .. by contrast, first served points won indicate the quality of the serve itself

Here, it's a tad different

Djokovic's 2nd serve points won of 64% is the best indicator of his superiority.... he's hitting more winners (47-32) and forcing more errors (59-36) and usually, the trade off to that is he'd be making a lot more Unforced errors

But in this match, that wasn't the case. He's only made 5 more UEs than the ever constant Nadal. .. and his typical shot is a lot more aggressive than Rafa's

Nadal's 45% second serve points won is indicative I think more about the quality of Djokovic's return than anything

Novak frequently took charge of the point with the return, sometimes even against the first serve... Nadal did well to keep it at just 45% given how often he was forced to make a defensive 3rd ball and given how superior Djoko was from neutral positions

Gutsy stuff from Rafa to keep the match so close... basically, Novak was better in all areas (serve, return and play) and when that happens, you usually get a thrashing like yesterday, not an epic like this

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Pantera said:

Well it’s exactly like Rafa said. Had he been fully match fit it would have been closer but he felt he still would have lost. What makes Nadal special is even out played he can keep it tight but clearly as he said yesterday at the moment he can’t find that extra gear. Whether that’s simply lack of training or a sign of decline I think we can judge in Indian Wells one of his best events.

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