Rafael Nadal-Roger Federer: Logical Flaw Interpreting Rafa's 13-7 H2H Margin

Rippy

Hall of Fame
one ..right?

So as far as grand slams Federer ia 2-1 on grass

0-4 on clay

0-1 on hard

Im not sure if I am right but that would mean Federer has only beaten Nadal on grass at grand slams...right?:confused:

Yeah, but the point is that if Nadal had made it to some US Open finals during Fed's prime, Fed would probably have won them.
 

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
probably? nadal would 'probably' have 8-9 slams if he wasn't injured. what about wimby 07 where fed got lucky with nadals injury in 4th set? .
 

ChanceEncounter

Professional
probably? nadal would 'probably' have 8-9 slams if he wasn't injured. what about wimby 07 where fed got lucky with nadals injury in 4th set? .
And whose fault is it that Nadal was injured? Obviously not Federer's.

It's clearly Nadal's fault that he wasn't good enough to advance to the US Open to play Federer. You assume that the H2H record is valid enough of an indicator to judge how good they are, unfortunately it isn't, because it's not a fair representation of the tournaments they enter and how far they advance in them.
 

Rippy

Hall of Fame
probably? nadal would 'probably' have 8-9 slams if he wasn't injured. what about wimby 07 where fed got lucky with nadals injury in 4th set? .

Injury at the moment is partly Nadal's fault.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting we alter the H2H to GIVE Federer extra wins. :p I'm just saying the lack of US Open slam meetings (or indeed other hardcourt meetings) means it is rather skewed.

In another thread, JennyS posted stats showing how often Nadal reached Fed's hardcourt finals, and how often Fed reached Nadal's claycourt finals. Fed reached the clay finals FAR more often, thus worsening his H2H against the great clay player that is Nadal.
 

Talker

Hall of Fame
probably? nadal would 'probably' have 8-9 slams if he wasn't injured. what about wimby 07 where fed got lucky with nadals injury in 4th set? .


It wouldn't have mattered, Fed turned up the heat after being down 2 break points twice in the fifth.
In other words Nadal was playing great in the 5th set.

Fed went all out and broke Rafa's will with awesome shots, hitting lines and flat out great play.
 

Turning Pro

Hall of Fame
Injury at the moment is partly Nadal's fault.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting we alter the H2H to GIVE Federer extra wins. :p I'm just saying the lack of US Open slam meetings (or indeed other hardcourt meetings) means it is rather skewed.

In another thread, JennyS posted stats showing how often Nadal reached Fed's hardcourt finals, and how often Fed reached Nadal's claycourt finals. Fed reached the clay finals FAR more often, thus worsening his H2H against the great clay player that is Nadal.

i'm just saying it isn't a given at all fed would win h/c finals in his prime, nadal's poses a massive threat even when fed was prime, it's still 5-4 off clay meaning nadal beat fed more times off his fav surface than vice versa. even in his prime.
 

bruce38

Banned
i'm just saying it isn't a given at all fed would win h/c finals in his prime, nadal's poses a massive threat even when fed was prime, it's still 5-4 off clay meaning nadal beat fed more times off his fav surface than vice versa. even in his prime.

Certainly not a given, but a good liklihood. What would the H2H be if the Master's series were spread evenly amongst all surfaces? What about Master's series on grass? Fed would be way ahead then.
 

GoaLaSSo

Semi-Pro
Seriously?

Huh.

I think head to head is generally the most relevant statistic to look at when comparing two players or teams in a competitive sport.
idk. it's hard to say that because anything can happen in rivalry matches. The green bay packers went 11-3 in 2007 and 2 of the 3 losses came at the hands of the bears, who were absolutely god awful that year. The packer's had a great year, but couldn't overcome their rivals. I would definitely say the packers were better than the bears in that year.

A head to head in a sport that's so mental isn't really the best judge of who's better in my opinion.
 
idk. it's hard to say that because anything can happen in rivalry matches. The green bay packers went 11-3 in 2007 and 2 of the 3 losses came at the hands of the bears, who were absolutely god awful that year. The packer's had a great year, but couldn't overcome their rivals. I would definitely say the packers were better than the bears in that year.

A head to head in a sport that's so mental isn't really the best judge of who's better in my opinion.

Its not really an accurate analogy

The Bears did not make it to the superbowl every year as opposed to Nadal who won three out of four Grand Slams last year.....all against Federer.
 

GoaLaSSo

Semi-Pro
i know but that year they won 2 of 2 games against an otherwise nearly perfect packers team. The packers were still a better team. i understand nadal has a better h2h but federer beats up on almost all players and has more achievements than nadal. its kind of similar, but what i mean overall is looking at just h2h and saying nadal is better isn't very accurate.

and nadal had a good year and fed didn't. Federer did better in the previous years and is doing better this year. Nadal is having the bad year this day
 
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i understand nadal has a better h2h but federer beats up on almost all players and has more achievements than nadal. its kind of similar, but what i mean overall is looking at just h2h and saying nadal is better isn't very accurate.

and nadal had a good year and fed didn't. Federer did better in the previous years and is doing better this year. Nadal is having the bad year this day

Do you think has more achievements than Nadal? Did Federer have six grand slams by age 23?

Do you really think Nadal didnt have a good year? He won his first grand Slam ever on a hard court against none other than Roger Federer?
 

GoaLaSSo

Semi-Pro
Nadal was/kindof is injured. He's been out and missed wimbledon, which he could have won. im not bagging on nadal. i like them both. i meant nadal would have had a much better year had he not missed two months:shock:

and at the moment federer has more achievements than nadal and i consider federer the better player because of this. Don't think i dislike nadal. they are both amazing tennis players and nadal could end up the better player by the end of nadal's career
 
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Nadal was/kindof is injured. He's been out and missed wimbledon, which he could have won. im not bagging on nadal. i like them both. i meant nadal would have had a much better year had he not missed two months:shock:

and at the moment federer has more achievements than nadal and i consider federer the better player because of this. Don't think i dislike nadal. they are both amazing tennis players and nadal could end up the better player by the end of nadal's career


Hey!!! You are Just copying Mary Carillio and saying it in a different way!!:

"In the grand scheme of things, am I willing to anoint Roger as the all-time greatest? I honestly feel like we have to wait until Nadal's career is over. I really do. " Mary Carillo
 

Steve132

Professional
Hey!!! You are Just copying Mary Carillio and saying it in a different way!!:

"In the grand scheme of things, am I willing to anoint Roger as the all-time greatest? I honestly feel like we have to wait until Nadal's career is over. I really do. " Mary Carillo

Wake me up when Nadal has won a dozen or more majors, including the U.S. Open. Until then I, like most people, will continue to believe that Federer is the greater player.
 

GoaLaSSo

Semi-Pro
Wake me up when Nadal has won a dozen or more majors, including the U.S. Open. Until then I, like most people, will continue to believe that Federer is the greater player.
yep agreed. Nadal is nearly on the same track as federer, but a bit ahead for his age. we won't know till we see and i still think in my opinion federer is better at the moment. I don't really see head to head as the best merit for who's better. Nadal has a losing record to james blake i believe, so by your logic james is better and nadal can't be the greatest.
 
S

SerbWhoLovesDelPo

Guest
Isn't it obvious? Before 2009, Rafa could only play on clay and grass, and he did not reach any finals in USOpen and AOpen where he was gonna lose to Federer. No.1 and No.2 seed can only play in the final, and Rafa did not even make it to the semifinals, so he did not have to lose to Federer. If he did they would have different scores. Doesn't everyone know this?
 

The-Champ

Legend
yep agreed. Nadal is nearly on the same track as federer, but a bit ahead for his age. we won't know till we see and i still think in my opinion federer is better at the moment. I don't really see head to head as the best merit for who's better. Nadal has a losing record to james blake i believe, so by your logic james is better and nadal can't be the greatest.



nobody here is saying Nadal is the greatest. And yes, he has a losing record against blake..because blake is better than Nadal...but Nadal is better than Federer.


Federer is NOT the greatest.
 

Steve132

Professional
nobody here is saying Nadal is the greatest. And yes, he has a losing record against blake..because blake is better than Nadal...but Nadal is better than Federer.


Federer is NOT the greatest.

So Blake is better than Nadal and Nadal is better than Federer. By the logic of your argument, however, Federer is better than Blake, because he has a lopsided favorable H2H record in their matches. A preference structure in which A is better than B, B better than C and C better than A is generally considered to be deeply unsatisfactory.

On another issue - can you identify any Open era player who does not have an unfavorable H2H record against ANY opponent?
 

The-Champ

Legend
So Blake is better than Nadal and Nadal is better than Federer. By the logic of your argument, however, Federer is better than Blake, because he has a lopsided favorable H2H record in their matches. A preference structure in which A is better than B, B better than C and C better than A is generally considered to be deeply unsatisfactory.

On another issue - can you identify any Open era player who does not have an unfavorable H2H record against ANY opponent?


Nadal and Blake are not GOAT candidates, Federer should have won all his matches against them.
 
So Blake is better than Nadal and Nadal is better than Federer. By the logic of your argument, however, Federer is better than Blake, because he has a lopsided favorable H2H record in their matches. A preference structure in which A is better than B, B better than C and C better than A is generally considered to be deeply unsatisfactory.

On another issue - can you identify any Open era player who does not have an unfavorable H2H record against ANY opponent?

Did Blake and Nadal ever meet on grass or Clay? Who do you think would win those matches?

Nadals record solely on hard courts against Blake is 2-3 but I believe Federers grand slam record against Nadal is 2-6 on ALL surfaces. Do you think that Blake is therefore an accurate comparison?

As far as H2h receords what do you think of what Matt Cronin of tennis magazine has to say:

"That means he's the best player of all time, with one major caveat -- his record against Nadal. All the top five guys have positive records against all their peers. Federer doesn't."
Matt Cronin, Inside Tennis magazine
 

AAAA

Hall of Fame
As far as H2h receords what do you think of what Matt Cronin of tennis magazine has to say:

"That means he's the best player of all time, with one major caveat -- his record against Nadal. All the top five guys have positive records against all their peers. Federer doesn't. On the other hand the other guys didn't win a record 15 Majors so they all have caveats to be fair"


Matt Cronin, Inside Tennis magazine[/I]

Dear Mr. Cronin, I ammended your article for balance.
 

Rippy

Hall of Fame
Did Blake and Nadal ever meet on grass or Clay? Who do you think would win those matches?

Nadals record solely on hard courts against Blake is 2-3 but I believe Federers grand slam record against Nadal is 2-6 on ALL surfaces. Do you think that Blake is therefore an accurate comparison?

As far as H2h receords what do you think of what Matt Cronin of tennis magazine has to say:

"That means he's the best player of all time, with one major caveat -- his record against Nadal. All the top five guys have positive records against all their peers. Federer doesn't."
Matt Cronin, Inside Tennis magazine

That quote makes no sense AT ALL. It is incorrect.

And yes, Fed and Nadal have met on all surfaces. But it's still awkward. Due to how their primes developed. Fed, in his prime, beat Nadal in Wimbledon twice. But Nadal wasn't yet in his prime. Then Nadal won Wimbledon and AO in 08/09, when Fed had left his prime, but Nadal was in his prime. Nadal always owned Fed on clay though.
 

sh@de

Hall of Fame
Did Blake and Nadal ever meet on grass or Clay? Who do you think would win those matches?

Nadals record solely on hard courts against Blake is 2-3 but I believe Federers grand slam record against Nadal is 2-6 on ALL surfaces. Do you think that Blake is therefore an accurate comparison?

As far as H2h receords what do you think of what Matt Cronin of tennis magazine has to say:

"That means he's the best player of all time, with one major caveat -- his record against Nadal. All the top five guys have positive records against all their peers. Federer doesn't."
Matt Cronin, Inside Tennis magazine

That is being very very ignorant about the fact that 4 of Nadal's 6 wins came on clay.
 

NamRanger

G.O.A.T.
Did Blake and Nadal ever meet on grass or Clay? Who do you think would win those matches?

Nadals record solely on hard courts against Blake is 2-3 but I believe Federers grand slam record against Nadal is 2-6 on ALL surfaces. Do you think that Blake is therefore an accurate comparison?

As far as H2h receords what do you think of what Matt Cronin of tennis magazine has to say:

"That means he's the best player of all time, with one major caveat -- his record against Nadal. All the top five guys have positive records against all their peers. Federer doesn't."
Matt Cronin, Inside Tennis magazine




Blake won the all important 4th round match at the USO. Therefore, Blake > Nadal. Kthx bai.
 

Rippy

Hall of Fame
Krajicek didn't beat Sampras in grand slam finals across all surfaces. Nadal did that to Federer.

Try again, and try better please!

Because Krajicek wasn't as GOOD as Nadal. He never made it to enough grand slam finals.

Sampras, owned by a guy not even good enough to meet him in finals consistently. :oops:
 

bluetrain4

G.O.A.T.
The article makes some great points.

And, I can agree that Nadal's 13--7 H2H can be a bit "misleading."

But, I don't agreee with the fact because Nadal has a far superior clay H2H as compared to other surfaces, and because he has not returned the favor of meeting Fed in more non-clay tourneys, that the H2H is somehow totally negated, as some on these boards posit.

The idea that a H2H is completely non-legit because Nadal and Fed have often met on Nadal's best surface and Nadal has not reached enough finals with Fed on other surfaces to improve Fed's record in the H2H, is baffling.

It's basically saying that no H2H's between any players are completely legit unless there are an equal number of matches under conditions that suit each player the best. The likelihood of that happening are minimal.

At some level, a match is just a match. Fed had many opportunities to improve his clay record against Nadal. He was "in" most of the clay matches he lost to Nadal. The H2H didn't have to be that bad for Fed, even without additional hard court, indoor, or grass court matches

Don't get me wrong. I fully understand the surface analysis and believe it has some merit. But, the idea that it completely negates what Nadal has accomplished H2H with Fed is ridiculous.

And, in the end, all the dominant H2H against Fed says is that Nadal was a great player who matched up well with Fed. It doesn't make Nadal "better" in the context of their entire career acheivement, and it doesn't suddenly make Nadal (with only 6 Slams to date) the GOAT, or (so far) even a legit GOAT candidate.
 

Aabye

Professional
That is being very very ignorant about the fact that 4 of Nadal's 6 wins came on clay.

Surface shouldn't matter. Just like the argument about Federer's early rivals being weak, or the Nadal is younger argument doesn't matter. I could see if Nadal had never been able to beat Federer on any other surface, but that just isn't the case.
 

luckyboy1300

Hall of Fame
The article makes some great points.

And, I can agree that Nadal's 13--7 H2H can be a bit "misleading."

But, I don't agreee with the fact because Nadal has a far superior clay H2H as compared to other surfaces, and because he has not returned the favor of meeting Fed in more non-clay tourneys, that the H2H is somehow totally negated, as some on these boards posit.

The idea that a H2H is completely non-legit because Nadal and Fed have often met on Nadal's best surface and Nadal has not reached enough finals with Fed on other surfaces to improve Fed's record in the H2H, is baffling.

It's basically saying that no H2H's between any players are completely legit unless there are an equal number of matches under conditions that suit each player the best. The likelihood of that happening are minimal.

At some level, a match is just a match. Fed had many opportunities to improve his clay record against Nadal. He was "in" most of the clay matches he lost to Nadal. The H2H didn't have to be that bad for Fed, even without additional hard court, indoor, or grass court matches

Don't get me wrong. I fully understand the surface analysis and believe it has some merit. But, the idea that it completely negates what Nadal has accomplished H2H with Fed is ridiculous.

And, in the end, all the dominant H2H against Fed says is that Nadal was a great player who matched up well with Fed. It doesn't make Nadal "better" in the context of their entire career acheivement, and it doesn't suddenly make Nadal (with only 6 Slams to date) the GOAT, or (so far) even a legit GOAT candidate.

wow kudos to you for pulling the trigger of how the h2h is to be interpreted. thank you. even the atp doesn't recognize the h2h as important other than being a tie-breaker at the YEC.
 

Lsmkenpo

Hall of Fame
Seriously?

Huh.

I think head to head is generally the most relevant statistic to look at when comparing two players or teams in a competitive sport.


Than you must agree that Hrbaty is a superior player to Nadal and Federer,
since he has a winning H2H versus both players.
 

AAAA

Hall of Fame
Because Krajicek wasn't as GOOD as Nadal. He never made it to enough grand slam finals.

Sampras, owned by a guy not even good enough to meet him in finals consistently. :oops:

Despite this they will still say Pete had tougher competition because he faced champions. The fact these Champions didn't beat him in slam finals doesn't to them contradict their tougher competition argument. Amazing.
 
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ksbh

Banned
By the same token Dominik Hrbaty has a leading H2H but wasn't good enough to make it to grand slam finals against Federer. Had he done so, he'd have had a winning record against Federer in grand slam finals.

Federer, owned by a guy not even good enough to meet him in finals consistently. ROFL X 100!

It's useless & faulty logic I'm using here but just to illustrate yours!

Because Krajicek wasn't as GOOD as Nadal. He never made it to enough grand slam finals.

Sampras, owned by a guy not even good enough to meet him in finals consistently. :oops:
 

ksbh

Banned
Thank you THH! It's clear that they were evenly matched at grand slams despite the attempt of the Federer lovers to portray Krajicek as someone who dominated Sampras in the manner than Nadal dominates Federer at the slams (or anywhere, for that matter!).

By the way, they never played a grand slam final against each other.

One question I have is why the Federer fans are dragging Sampras into a discussion where he has no relevance? Nadal dominates Federer and from what I've seen, it's got nothing to do with Sampras! LOL!

I believe the Krajek vs Sampras record at grand slams is 1-1.
 

DaysofGrace

Banned
Thank you THH! It's clear that they were evenly matched at grand slams despite the attempt of the Federer lovers to portray Krajicek as someone who dominated Sampras in the manner than Nadal dominates Federer at the slams (or anywhere, for that matter!).

By the way, they never played a grand slam final against each other.

One question I have is why the Federer fans are dragging Sampras into a discussion where he has no relevance? Nadal dominates Federer and from what I've seen, it's got nothing to do with Sampras! LOL!

Because Pete is the true GOAT and who is Roger almost ALWAYS being compared to? :) No one else but Pete
 
What I do not understand is why Hrbaty is being brought up?

Sampras is 2-0 at grand Slams against Hrbaty, being undefeated on grass and hard. Did I misread that or something?
 

Steve132

Professional
Because Pete is the true GOAT and who is Roger almost ALWAYS being compared to? :) No one else but Pete

FALSE. Sampras does not figure prominently in GOAT discussions today - it's always Federer versus Laver for Open era players. See here, for example, or the cover article in the current version of Tennis magazine.
 

Rippy

Hall of Fame
By the same token Dominik Hrbaty has a leading H2H but wasn't good enough to make it to grand slam finals against Federer. Had he done so, he'd have had a winning record against Federer in grand slam finals.

Federer, owned by a guy not even good enough to meet him in finals consistently. ROFL X 100!

It's useless & faulty logic I'm using here but just to illustrate yours!

Well yes, OK, I'll acknowledge preprime Federer had some problems with Hrbaty. :p

But basically, Fed has problems with Nadal. Pete had them with Krajicek. However, because Nadal was better than Krajicek, he met Fed more often than Krajicek met Sampras, leading to a more noticeably negative H2H. All players have a weakness; it just so happens that Fed's was also a very good player.

(And no, I don't think the Krajicek thing is a stain on Sampras' record. Just like I don't believe Nadal's is a stain on Federer's. I was just using Krajicek to show all players have weaknesses)
 
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How about Sampras vs Edberg at grand slams, would you share that record as well?

Now that is a really great point!!

A whole freaking lot better than Hrbaty, and Krajcek.

Edberg is freaking 2-0 against Pete at the slams.

The only thing however is the Edberg has a losing record of 6-8 against Sampras overall whereas Roger is at 7-13.

Buy I do agree with you!! That's a terrible blemish on the Sampras record .

On the other hand I think i remember that Edberg also beat Roger Federer on Stefans worst surface at the freaking French Open. Maybe someone can check that one out?
 
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