GustafsonFanatic
Banned
Since Fedfans are saying that H2H is skewed because of all the clay matches, consider what the H2H would be if they met proportionally on all surfaces.
Let's take Federer in 2008 (this is all very approximate, of course)
Federer played 20 tournaments: 2 on grass, 5 on clay, 13 on hardcourts.
So if Federer played Rafa in every single one of them, there would be 2 matches, 5 on clay, and 13 on hardcourts. Agree?
So, the frequency of the surfaces is:
Grass: 2/20 = 0.1
Clay: 5/20 = 0.25
Hard: 13/20 = 0.65
Now, look at their H2H:
Grass: 2-1 Fed
Clay: 9-2 Rafa
Hard: 3-3
Next step, multiple the wins by frequency of each surface:
Federer:
Grass: 2*0.1 = 0.2
Clay: 2*0.25 = 0.5
Hard: 3*0.65 = 1.95
Total = 0.2+0.5+1.95 = 2.65
Nadal
Grass: 1*0.1 = 0.1
Clay: 9*0.25 = 2.25
Hard: 3*0.65 = 1.95
Total = 0.1+2.25+1.95 = 4.3
As you can see, 4.3>2.65, Rafa would still have a positive H2H even if they played on all surfaces with corresponding frequency.
Any way you look at it, Nadal is simply better in H2H.
This has nothing to do with the number of slams won by each player. Federer has way more slams right now and he will definitely have more at the end of their careers.
Let's take Federer in 2008 (this is all very approximate, of course)
Federer played 20 tournaments: 2 on grass, 5 on clay, 13 on hardcourts.
So if Federer played Rafa in every single one of them, there would be 2 matches, 5 on clay, and 13 on hardcourts. Agree?
So, the frequency of the surfaces is:
Grass: 2/20 = 0.1
Clay: 5/20 = 0.25
Hard: 13/20 = 0.65
Now, look at their H2H:
Grass: 2-1 Fed
Clay: 9-2 Rafa
Hard: 3-3
Next step, multiple the wins by frequency of each surface:
Federer:
Grass: 2*0.1 = 0.2
Clay: 2*0.25 = 0.5
Hard: 3*0.65 = 1.95
Total = 0.2+0.5+1.95 = 2.65
Nadal
Grass: 1*0.1 = 0.1
Clay: 9*0.25 = 2.25
Hard: 3*0.65 = 1.95
Total = 0.1+2.25+1.95 = 4.3
As you can see, 4.3>2.65, Rafa would still have a positive H2H even if they played on all surfaces with corresponding frequency.
Any way you look at it, Nadal is simply better in H2H.
This has nothing to do with the number of slams won by each player. Federer has way more slams right now and he will definitely have more at the end of their careers.
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