Federer's chances at US open ??? What odds do you give him

dgold44

G.O.A.T.
US open I read is actually slower than the super fast courts of Cinncy.

Federer has not won US open since 2008 !!!!

Federer has dominated Murray the last few times they played.

Just hard for 34 year old to play great tennis for 2 weeks straight, I Think.

Is Nishokori healthy ??

Would you give Fed about 4 to 1 odds or 5 to 1.
 

Charlemagne

Hall of Fame
I think that there's a reason that he hasn't won the tournament since 2008. Too many sets (best of 5), too long of rallies- slower court, just plain bad luck (USO 2014, 2011, 2010)... I could see Murray winning it.
 
Federer's main problem is getting past the big guys in the BO5 format. He pretty much has to beat them in straight sets, or he won't win. He was kinda lucky to win the Monfils match last year, but then he was then destroyed by Cilic the next round. That being said he's probably the 3rd or 4th favorite to win the USO. It's true that the courts are slower compared to Cincinnati, but the BO5 is his main hurdle.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
Federer's main problem is getting past the big guys in the BO5 format. He pretty much has to beat them in straight sets, or he won't win. He was kinda lucky to win the Monfils match last year, but then he was then destroyed by Cilic the next round. That being said he's probably the 3rd or 4th favorite to win the USO. It's true that the courts are slower compared to Cincinnati, but the BO5 is his main hurdle.

3rd or 4th favorite? I put him at #2 behind Djokovic. Stan has been mentally weak lately, Murray has been owned by Federer lately (BO5 or BO3 Federer 5-0 in last 5 matches against him dropping only 1 set).

Cilic beat him because he was serving out of his head and Federer was gassed by Monfils. Was a huge win for Cilic and all the credit in the world to him, but in a rematch I'd fancy Roger's chances.

His problem is Djokovic in a BO5, not so much the big guys.
 

Chanwan

G.O.A.T.
US open I read is actually slower than the super fast courts of Cinncy.

Federer has not won US open since 2008 !!!!

Federer has dominated Murray the last few times they played.

Just hard for 34 year old to play great tennis for 2 weeks straight, I Think.

Is Nishokori healthy ??

Would you give Fed about 4 to 1 odds or 5 to 1.
4 to 1?? What are you smoking? He's not been to a HC slam final since AO 2010 iirc. That's 5 years of HC slams without him reaching a single final. And we're talking winning it here, not RU. He's also 1 in 4 in his last 4 slam finals. So even if he suddenly gets to a HC final, his chances of winning it aren't that great.

All in all, 10 to 1 or worse. I would probably go with 12-15 to 1.
 

timnz

Legend
US open I read is actually slower than the super fast courts of Cinncy.

Federer has not won US open since 2008 !!!!

Federer has dominated Murray the last few times they played.

Just hard for 34 year old to play great tennis for 2 weeks straight, I Think.

Is Nishokori healthy ??

Would you give Fed about 4 to 1 odds or 5 to 1.
I disagree - I think he is fit enough for best of 5. I just think the slowness of the US Open court is a problem for him (it is shame how much they have slowed it over the years). If the US Open was played at Cincinatti - he would be one of top 2 favourites.
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
The big guys that Federer has struggled with in the past have seriously regressed in quality. Tomas Berdych and Jo Willy Tsonga are not really the threats they used to be. At least they haven't been lately.

Federer's biggest competition is probably Stan, Djokovic, and maybe someone like Nishikori (if he could ever stay healthy).

I'd fancy his chances against guys like Berdych, Cilic, Tsonga, and even Murray.

Do I think he'd beat Djokovic in a final if that's what it was? No, probably not. But that's why you play (nobody thought Cilic / Nishikori would win their semi finals last year).

Which also means I do have to be weary of Federer getting upset, but I like his chances to not get upset. I think he'll make the final and lose to Novak. Impossible to fully predict though without seeing the bracket.
 

Djokovic2011

Bionic Poster
I'd say he's probably 3rd favourite behind Murray and Djokovic. What's interesting is that I think Murray will have better chances against the field but if he and Fed should meet in the semis(or even the final) I'm not so sure I'd favour Andy given that he hasn't even won a set off him in their last 4 matches!
 

Federer and Del Potro

Bionic Poster
I'd say he's probably 3rd favourite behind Murray and Djokovic. What's interesting is that I think Murray will have better chances against the field but if he and Fed should meet in the semis(or even the final) I'm not so sure I'd favour Andy given that he hasn't even won a set off him in their last 4 matches!
Good way of looking at it tbh. I agree.
 
With his more aggressive tactics now, his matches don't take nearly as long. There's no reason he can't have the same success at the USO that he did here. Last year, he just ran into a once-in-lifetime Cilic.
 

timnz

Legend
I'd say he's probably 3rd favourite behind Murray and Djokovic. What's interesting is that I think Murray will have better chances against the field but if he and Fed should meet in the semis(or even the final) I'm not so sure I'd favour Andy given that he hasn't even won a set off him in their last 4 matches!
Why do you think he will stuggle against Murray? Federer has won 12 of the last 13 sets they have played together (the one set that Murray won was in a tie breaker).
 

tennis_pro

Bionic Poster
I'd say he's probably 3rd favourite behind Murray and Djokovic. What's interesting is that I think Murray will have better chances against the field but if he and Fed should meet in the semis(or even the final) I'm not so sure I'd favour Andy given that he hasn't even won a set off him in their last 4 matches!

I agree, as I said earlier a LOT depends on the draw for Federer. If he avoids Murray in the SF and wins his first 5 matches in under 3h each, he has a shot.
 

Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil

Talk Tennis Guru
If US Open court was same as one at Cincy, Fed would have a quite solid chance. But the one in New York is slower + it is best of 5.
Djokovic is still the favorite there IMO, he just needs to rest a bit. Had too many long matches at Montreal and Cincy.
 

NGM

Hall of Fame
His chance on medium hard court is very slim. He can not serve it out of trouble easilly as in Cincinatti and his body will be tired more faster. Besides it's BO5.

I don't think he has chance here.
 

Elektra

Professional
His hyperagressive game that we saw today, is not sustainable in a best of five. His best shot is having a cupcake draw and going against gutless scrubs. Even him playing someone like Tommy Robredo on a hardcourt is considered dangerzone.
 

Elektra

Professional
The big guys that Federer has struggled with in the past have seriously regressed in quality. Tomas Berdych and Jo Willy Tsonga are not really the threats they used to be. At least they haven't been lately.

Federer's biggest competition is probably Stan, Djokovic, and maybe someone like Nishikori (if he could ever stay healthy).

I'd fancy his chances against guys like Berdych, Cilic, Tsonga, and even Murray.

Do I think he'd beat Djokovic in a final if that's what it was? No, probably not. But that's why you play (nobody thought Cilic / Nishikori would win their semi finals last year).

Which also means I do have to be weary of Federer getting upset, but I like his chances to not get upset. I think he'll make the final and lose to Novak. Impossible to fully predict though without seeing the bracket.

Taking on guys like Berdych is different in a best of five instead of a best of three. Federer can look good and defy time when he is playing a best of three but the age creeps when he plays back to back best of five.
 

Elektra

Professional
Fed to Win 2 to 1 odds. Fed is in GOD mode and that is his best tennis. that is very dangerous.

His GOD mode be sustained in a best of five, he can look good at these best of three ATP tournaments but the slams is where it counts and everybody raises their level.
 

SpicyCurry1990

Hall of Fame
For reference I just did a quick averaging of the betting markets + normalization to 100% like someone did on here for the Wimbledon odds and I got this (only listing players with above a 1% valuation):

35.12% Novak Djokovic
18.22% Andy Murray
13.31% Roger Federer
5.52% Stan Wawrinka
4.72% Kei Nishikori
4.26% Rafael Nadal
1.59% Marin Cilic
1.56% Grigor Dimitrov
1.54% Tomas Berdych
 

StanTheMan

Hall of Fame
For reference I just did a quick averaging of the betting markets + normalization to 100% like someone did on here for the Wimbledon odds and I got this (only listing players with above a 1% valuation):

35.12% Novak Djokovic
18.22% Andy Murray
13.31% Roger Federer
5.52% Stan Wawrinka
4.72% Kei Nishikori
4.26% Rafael Nadal
1.59% Marin Cilic
1.56% Grigor Dimitrov
1.54% Tomas Berdych
Nice. Thanks for taking the time. I was about to do something like it after reading this trend
 

Dolgopolov85

G.O.A.T.
I'd say he's probably 3rd favourite behind Murray and Djokovic. What's interesting is that I think Murray will have better chances against the field but if he and Fed should meet in the semis(or even the final) I'm not so sure I'd favour Andy given that he hasn't even won a set off him in their last 4 matches!

Yeah I like Murray's chances against Djoko better.
 

Feather

Legend
For reference I just did a quick averaging of the betting markets + normalization to 100% like someone did on here for the Wimbledon odds and I got this (only listing players with above a 1% valuation):

35.12% Novak Djokovic
18.22% Andy Murray
13.31% Roger Federer
5.52% Stan Wawrinka
4.72% Kei Nishikori
4.26% Rafael Nadal
1.59% Marin Cilic
1.56% Grigor Dimitrov
1.54% Tomas Berdych

Thanks for posting this.

I wonder why Stan is almost eight percent behind Roger. It's not realistic, I think. Stan has more chances of winning US open than Roger, IMO
 

SpicyCurry1990

Hall of Fame
Thanks for posting this.

I wonder why Stan is almost eight percent behind Roger. It's not realistic, I think. Stan has more chances of winning US open than Roger, IMO

Stan is an enigma and you have no clue which form is going to show up. Fed is the much more consistent bet to reach the SF. If we get to the final weekend and both Stan and Roger are in the draw, I think the markets would weigh them fairly equally or even give Stan a slight edge.

A similar example is Fed vs Djokovic at Cincy this week. Pre-tournament Djokovic was 5:4 to win the title and Fed only 7:2 because the markets foresaw a possible upset for Fed before the finals as much more likely than for Djok. However, yesterday once the final was set Djok's odds only went up from 5:4 with a field of 56 to 4:5 with a field of 2, while Fed moved from 7:2 to 1:1.
 

dlk

Hall of Fame
Stan is an enigma and you have no clue which form is going to show up. Fed is the much more consistent bet to reach the SF. If we get to the final weekend and both Stan and Roger are in the draw, I think the markets would weigh them fairly equally or even give Stan a slight edge.

A similar example is Fed vs Djokovic at Cincy this week. Pre-tournament Djokovic was 5:4 to win the title and Fed only 7:2 because the markets foresaw a possible upset for Fed before the finals as much more likely than for Djok. However, yesterday once the final was set Djok's odds only went up from 5:4 with a field of 56 to 4:5 with a field of 2, while Fed moved from 7:2 to 1:1.

Spot on with the assessment on Stan. I would think Nadal would have lower odds, despite being Nadal. And Grigor getting some love?
 
C

Cenarius

Guest
Djokovic: 65%
Murray: 15%
Nishikori: 10%
Federer: 5%
Rest of the field: 5%
 

Big_Dangerous

Talk Tennis Guru
I think that there's a reason that he hasn't won the tournament since 2008. Too many sets (best of 5), too long of rallies- slower court, just plain bad luck (USO 2014, 2011, 2010)... I could see Murray winning it.

Well also some bad luck involved as well. Being up 2 sets to 1 against Del Potro and then not closing it out. The match points against Djokovic in 2010 and 2011. And in the last few years he's really run into a buzz saw, 2012 Berdych played a fantastic match and really hit Roger off the court, 2013 not a good year for Roger testing out a new racket and then his back injury, and last year Cilic was just on fire.
 

Feather

Legend
Djokovic: 65%
Murray: 15%
Nishikori: 10%
Federer: 5%
Rest of the field: 5%

Totally disagree!

I can agree if you put Rafa ahead of Roger but Kei having twice the chances of winning US is far fetched. I guess people are reading too much into that win against Djokovic last year. I know he defeated Stan, Raonic also but still
 

D.Nalby12

G.O.A.T.
I believe, he is second favorite for USO just behind Djokovic. Regaining #2 ranking may prove crucial if he gets favourable draw. Higher seeding keeps open possibility of drawing Ferrer/Berdych in QF and Nishikori in SF which means he could make final without facing both stamina based grinder and Stanhammer. Draw doesn't matter that much, if he continues his current form in NY. Murray is not kind of tough matchup for him lately, he will be lucky to get set on decoturf. Stanhammer is unknown factor but I believe Federer finds his explosive forehand (which we saw in Cincinnati), he can dictate rallies without giving too much rhythm to Stan while if he hits loopy forehands like he is doing most of the times these days, then Wawr will maul him. I don't believe he can beat Djokovic in BO5 match now, and I will keep believing same unless he does so. Someone takes Djokovic, then it will be his tournament to lose.
 

Jaitock1991

Hall of Fame
He's beating the men to beat(Djoko and Murray) in straight sets in bo3 on courts that, allthough quite a bit faster, are not very different from USO. So saying he doesn't have a shot at it is ridiculous.

If he can keep playing like this, I'm pretty sure he'll reach the final. And if somehow Murray ends up in Djoker's half and beats Djoker in their semi(not too unlikely, considering Djokovic's level of play usually starts to fade slighltly around this time of the the season), preferably a brutal 5-setter, Federer is easily the favourite for the title in my book. A few things might have to open up for him, but he definitely has a chance.
 

roysid

Hall of Fame
The best scenario for him...Murray takes out Djokovic in semis. And Fed beats Murray in finals.

Note: Murray has much better chance against Novak compared to Fed because he can hang around with Novak in rallies. Only Murray needs to sustain it for a longer period. It's anyone's game.
So who gets Murray in semis is very very important...

Federer is 3rd favorite to me(after Djoko, Murray). But all those favorites doesn't matter many a times as we saw in last year's US open and this year's French Open.
 

zagor

Bionic Poster
Stan is an enigma and you have no clue which form is going to show up. Fed is the much more consistent bet to reach the SF.

That's a myth to be honest, Since 2013 USO SF (when he lost a close match to Novak) Stan only had one bad slam loss (to GGL in FO), every other time it took a very in-form or top player to knock him out (Fed, Novak, Kei, Gasquet) or he ended up winning the slam.

Just consider this year, he reached AO SF (lost to AO monster that is Novak), won FO and was extremely close to reaching SF at Wimbledon which is by far his worst surface.

The only players who have been more consistent than Stan in slams for the last 2 year period were Novak and maybe Murray, Fed is only a more consistent bet to go deep in Wimbledon, everywhere else it's clearly Stan.

He's very erratic in masters true (people forget he got destroyed by Fed and Dimitrov in CC masters this year before winning FO) but he's been a very consistent slam performer recently.
 

Chicharito

Hall of Fame
Slower Court, Bo5 but of course has a chance. I have Nole favourite with Murray, Fed and Nishikori all similar chances. The rest are more outsiders but no-one would shock me. I really did believe beyond Nole tennis is quite Open, 2014 US Open backs me up.

Thanks for posting this.

I wonder why Stan is almost eight percent behind Roger. It's not realistic, I think. Stan has more chances of winning US open than Roger, IMO

Odds are not just based on probability, they are determined by how much money customers bet on the player. This is how the bookmakers make their money. More money will be being placed on Fed than Stan. If I bet 10 grand on Stan today, his odds would be reduced after with the bookmaker I bet with.
 

Feather

Legend
The best scenario for him...Murray takes out Djokovic in semis. And Fed beats Murray in finals.

Note: Murray has much better chance against Novak compared to Fed because he can hang around with Novak in rallies. Only Murray needs to sustain it for a longer period. It's anyone's game.
So who gets Murray in semis is very very important...

Federer is 3rd favorite to me(after Djoko, Murray). But all those favorites doesn't matter many a times as we saw in last year's US open and this year's French Open.

Yeah, very true

Who gets Murray is very very important
 

dh003i

Legend
For reference I just did a quick averaging of the betting markets + normalization to 100% like someone did on here for the Wimbledon odds and I got this (only listing players with above a 1% valuation):

35.12% Novak Djokovic
18.22% Andy Murray
13.31% Roger Federer
5.52% Stan Wawrinka
4.72% Kei Nishikori
4.26% Rafael Nadal
1.59% Marin Cilic
1.56% Grigor Dimitrov
1.54% Tomas Berdych

This is what is reasonable to go with, because it is what the betting market has come to. If there is anything we know, it is that markets with many participants putting money on things are extremely efficient.

Again we see how idiotic it is for anyone to say there is "no chance" for Federer in best of 5 to win. And we see that there is a 65% chance that the winner will be someone other than Djokovic. I am a bit surprised that the market has Nadal's odds ahead of Cilic's, but I can understand it.

In short, anyone who disagrees with those odds and thinks it's very "obvious" that they are right should be betting massive amounts of money on it in a play against the odds they see as being wrong. Otherwise, it is difficult to take these statements of "certainty" seriously.
 

Russeljones

Talk Tennis Guru
Everyone can beat Federer in 2/3 and 3/5. Federer can beat everyone in 2/3 and everyone bar Novak in 3/5. I think it's a big ask for him to contest a second major final this year.
 

NatF

Bionic Poster
I think Federer will beat Murray if they meet at the USO. But he'll need a very off color Djokovic to win the whole thing most likely - not too unlikely considering the last couple of years. I think Federer has a slim shot he just needs a draw he can navigate without losing energy and Murray vs Djokovic to be on the same side of the draw. I would rate him 3rd favorite but I feel this Open is fairly open ;)
 

SoBad

G.O.A.T.
I'd say 50/50. But if Federer can’t snap up this USO with the depleted field of injured Nadal and tired Djokovic, then even Rio gold slam won’t be enough to get into the GOAT conversation, for sure.
 
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