AngryBirds
Semi-Pro
Fed has won exactly 1 major title since 2011. I'd say the chances are very slim.
Federer's chances at US open ??? What odds do you give him
- Thread starter dgold44
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torpantennis
Legend
Federer's changes at USO are very slim. The court there is not as low skidding as Dubai/Cincy/Shanghai/Basel. On the low skidding conditions of those four tournaments, Federer at age 34 is still the best in the world which is amazing!
SpicyCurry1990
Hall of Fame
Federer has played in 10 of the last 11 USO SF, while Stan has played in just 1 in his whole career. This gives the markets much more confidence in Fed being there for the final 4 than Stan. Like I said, the deeper the tournament goes I expect Stan's odds to rise in relation to Fed. I also expect a reasonable flux once the draw comes out
The thing with is, the sample size is 1 tournament and binary. Betting vs the odds is only a useful game if you are in it for the long haul over time.
If we got these odds for say 20 US Opens, I would put a bet down on Stan for all 20 as I think he would win 2 of them and hence beat the 5.72% odds. With just 1 USO to be played, however, its all or nothing and hence I still don't feel confident in a bet even if I feel he is undervauled.
zagor
Bionic Poster
Actually, Fed only reached one USO SF (and he had to save 2 MPs and come back from 0-2 down in QF) out of the last 3 USO, he lost in 4th round (to Robredo in straights) and QF(to Berdych in 4) before that, not to mention the loss to Seppi in the other HC slam - AO (obviously somewhat different surface but still illustrates that Fed is no longer money to go deep in a HC slam).
I think a lot of people are betting on Fed (which is affecting the odds) because he's Fed and recently won Cincy in dominant fashion against top notch competition (if he beat Dolgo in the final and Gasquet in SF it wouldn't have had the same effect) even though Canada/Cincy performance rarely matters when it comes to who ends up winning USO.
I definitely consider Stan to be a bigger favourite (than Fed) to both go deep and to win the whole thing (which I betted on him to do) in USO and any other slam apart from Wimbledon. I don't find him to be enigmatic or inconsistent, it's clear to me that he gets up for slams and half-asses it outside them.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
Depends on the draw. We'll know on Friday.
SpicyCurry1990
Hall of Fame
I forgot 2012 was a QF vs Berdych, my mistake.
And makes sense what you are saying, I was just offering a view point as to why the odds are what they are.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Pretty much how I see it, but I would move Stan to 15 % and take a percent here and there from the other top 4 guys.
1) the seeding
2) Fed just won Cinci and his odds were lowered because of that
3) more people bet on Fed, hence they lower the odds (as far as I know)
@zagor, how much did you bet on Stan and at what odds? I bet at 16 times return. Best of luck to Stanimal (wouldn't mind losing the money if Roger wins though).
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zagor
Bionic Poster
50 euros on 13x return. Yeah, I'd also rather see Fed win of course than win money lol (the nature of fanboys I guess).
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
I'm more conservative - just bet 20 euros on 16X return. Will increase it if he gets a good draw (and often you can do that before the market reacts to the draw)
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
I read before that the draw comes out on Thursday.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
I read before that the draw comes out on Thursday.
So Thursday it is. It's even better, we'll have 72 hours to talk about the draw over and over again, this gon be gud.
mattosgrant
Banned
It is hard to say. I have said for awhile his toughest task will be beating Djokovic again in a best of 5. Best of 3 is one thing, but best of 5 is another beast entirely. It is funny to think Stan is one guy who does so much better vs Novak in best of 5 though, but that hasn't applied to Roger in a long time. The other problem for him is there are no slam surfaces nearly as fast as say Cincinnati anymore. U.S Open certainly isn't these days either.
Other than that his biggest test will be the endurance struggle of the event. He hasn't made the final there since 2009. While Novak swiped those match points in 2010 and 2011, he is also facing the challenges of the long event that tends to take a lot out of your physically, and with its sometimes crazy scheduling, now that he is older.
So I am not sure. I think it is possible he could win. If he played Novak it would need to be a perfect match. The good news for him is he cant play Novak until the final, and we all know Novak's record in U.S Open finals thus far. He would need to not expend too much energy both in the early and middle rounds, to be fresh for a hypothetical semi final, and even try to win a semi final fairly routinely (not easy I know) if he can. He needs to also keep up the attacking style he played at Wimbledon and Cincinnati.
Other than that his biggest test will be the endurance struggle of the event. He hasn't made the final there since 2009. While Novak swiped those match points in 2010 and 2011, he is also facing the challenges of the long event that tends to take a lot out of your physically, and with its sometimes crazy scheduling, now that he is older.
So I am not sure. I think it is possible he could win. If he played Novak it would need to be a perfect match. The good news for him is he cant play Novak until the final, and we all know Novak's record in U.S Open finals thus far. He would need to not expend too much energy both in the early and middle rounds, to be fresh for a hypothetical semi final, and even try to win a semi final fairly routinely (not easy I know) if he can. He needs to also keep up the attacking style he played at Wimbledon and Cincinnati.
mattosgrant
Banned
I agree, although if Nishikori doesn't play and Stan is the 4th seed....Well actually watching him play this summer, and that he is more a threat on slower surfaces, Murray probably still would be considerably tougher, and taxing even if either Djoko or Roger beats him.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
I can't wait t_p! Really hoping that Novak avoids Wawrinka and Murray haha.
Chanwan
G.O.A.T.
Nishi will play I believe.
Imagine either Fed or Djoko getting Stan and Murray in QF and semi. Now there's a tough draw!
While I'm hoping Djoko gets both, hahahahaI can't wait t_p! Really hoping that Novak avoids Wawrinka and Murray haha.
mattosgrant
Banned
I can't wait t_p! Really hoping that Novak avoids Wawrinka and Murray haha.
Yeah Nishikori in the semis, and probably pulling out injured in an early round would be perfect.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Plus Berdych in the quarters and a tired lower ranked player in the final would be perfect. Novak needs all the luck he can get in NYC these days.
C
Chadillac
Guest
He did just beat the so called two best players in the world without facing a breakpoint. Suprised his odds arent higher
BGod
G.O.A.T.
This guy has the right idea.
I'll be nice and shorten the historical trajectory to just this and last season. Across all Slams it's a 7-2 to make Finals but the U.S. Open has seen him have Quarters, R16 and Semifinals being the most recent. Given his decline and age but only really 2 blocks in Murray and Djokovic, I'd say 15-1 shot.
Thing about tennis is even if the well is dry, all you really need is to have 1 or 2 sets go right for you. Sampras on his swan song needed two tiebreaks against Schalken and beat him in straights and got Agassi.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
I give Fed a 5-10% chance. He had a cakewalk draw last year and still couldn't get it done. He went down tamely to Cilic in the semis. He's 34 years old! It ain't happening.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
There's a vast difference between 2 sets and 3/5 sets. Had the Cincy final been a best 3/5 format, I think Nole would have had a good shot at coming back and winning the match. Using your logic, Fed should have been a slam dunk for the 2012 USO. He'd just bagelled Nole in Cincy and won Wimbledon but he still crashed out in NY.
I think Fed has around 10-20% chance of winning. However, anything can happen in sports and he is riding momentum and playing better than 2014 at this time. I think it will be either Djokovic or Federer winning this one and I hope they play the final.
Odds don't matter anyways. I'm just glad he is still playing so well and I want to see him win the USO. I also really want a Fedal match.
Odds don't matter anyways. I'm just glad he is still playing so well and I want to see him win the USO. I also really want a Fedal match.
mattosgrant
Banned
Cincy is also a lot faster. Which of course favors Fed. He will have to play atleast that well (pretty much his top form, especialy the final) at the U.S Open to win over the same opponents in best of 5 under much less favorable conditions to play those guys on. Plus staying fit.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
I agree, but Berdych hasn't looked good in BO anything lately.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
What do you mean by "so called two best players in the world"? They are!
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
2015 Federer > 2015 Murray
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Isn't Murray ahead of Federer in the race so far? Pretty sure he has more points than him.
Federer and Del Potro
Bionic Poster
Was until Cincinnati. But I was mainly talking head to head. http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/tennis/rankings
I will be the first to admit Djokovic is by far the best and has been for a long while now - Federer's best chance is what some have already said, have Murray beat Novak and it be a Murray-Federer final. I don't think he can take Novak out on his own (I have no problem admitting that). It could happen, it's just not likely. Court conditions at USO favor Djokovic's game and also his fitness is second to none.
Anyway, Murray has lost the last 5 matches against him dating back to 2013, with only 1 set won in those matches. And it was on different surfaces and in BO3's and BO5's. I like Federer's chances any time he is against Murray. I will admit though between the two, Murray probably stands a better chance of beating Nole.
Strange, and you're free to disagree, but my opinion.
tipsa...don'tlikehim!
Talk Tennis Guru
Djokovic 2.27
Murray 4.73
Federer 5.28
Nishikori 12.77
Nadal 14.51
Murray 4.73
Federer 5.28
Nishikori 12.77
Nadal 14.51
Enga
Hall of Fame
Federer always has a chance.
However, in this tournament, I suspect Federer will have a smaller chance. The reason being that many of the younger/lesser ranked players seem to play well here. Theres a slightly bigger chance for upsets along the way. Last year, none of the big 4 were in the final. Players have to look out for the likes of Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Cilic. I also suspect Berdych, Raonic and Dimitrov will make waves at the USO with their big hitting. And theres always Isner.
I suspect Nishikori and Cilic in particular will bring out their best level for this tournament, feeling confident and wanting to prove themselves.
Federer has recently shown a big susceptibility to tall players with big serves on slower hardcourt conditions. Why? Because his return sits up on the slower surface, allowing these big players time to set up what is often a huge forehand. It gives them confidence that they can hold serve no matter what Federer throws at them, and allows them to go for even more risky serves. This is what we have seen when Federer lost to Cilic and Raonic I believe.
Federer needs a quick court for his neutral returns to be effective. Players who attack second serves like Djokovic I believe have a better chance against big serves on slow hardcourts, and I believe Federer will have to be in a more attacking mindset on second serves too. He possibly recognizes this, thus the very improved return game over the last week, trying to work his way into the return games more and doing more with second serves.
Will be interesting to watch.
However, in this tournament, I suspect Federer will have a smaller chance. The reason being that many of the younger/lesser ranked players seem to play well here. Theres a slightly bigger chance for upsets along the way. Last year, none of the big 4 were in the final. Players have to look out for the likes of Nishikori, Wawrinka, and Cilic. I also suspect Berdych, Raonic and Dimitrov will make waves at the USO with their big hitting. And theres always Isner.
I suspect Nishikori and Cilic in particular will bring out their best level for this tournament, feeling confident and wanting to prove themselves.
Federer has recently shown a big susceptibility to tall players with big serves on slower hardcourt conditions. Why? Because his return sits up on the slower surface, allowing these big players time to set up what is often a huge forehand. It gives them confidence that they can hold serve no matter what Federer throws at them, and allows them to go for even more risky serves. This is what we have seen when Federer lost to Cilic and Raonic I believe.
Federer needs a quick court for his neutral returns to be effective. Players who attack second serves like Djokovic I believe have a better chance against big serves on slow hardcourts, and I believe Federer will have to be in a more attacking mindset on second serves too. He possibly recognizes this, thus the very improved return game over the last week, trying to work his way into the return games more and doing more with second serves.
Will be interesting to watch.
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Big_Dangerous
Talk Tennis Guru
And that is his only US Open too. He owns Australia, but New York hasn't been as kind to him.
merlinpinpin
Hall of Fame
Oh, so you already know Fed's draw, thanks for sharing. Never was in doubt, though. And you forgot to mention Monfils (or is it Goffin?) in R4. Business as usual.
As for his chances in the tournament, he's got the magic number 13 going for him this time, so let's say 13/1. Should be more than enough to do the job.
C
Cenarius
Guest
Nadal isn't going beyond 4th round.The season has been horrible till now by his standarts.
I was going to give Nishikori a bigger chance but he is not fully healthy.
tennis_pro
Bionic Poster
This is the only reason Murray has better odds than Federer. But if Murray is to land in Djokovic's draw, the moment they announce it, you can switch Federer's and Murray's odds.
sportsfan1
Legend
Djokovic hasn't had an average day against Federer at a slam since Wimbledon 2012, of course Fed's play had something to do with it too. He's had a few MS 1000 where he's competed but wasn't quite at his peak level - Monte Carlo 2014, recent Cincy finals where he's made quite a few DFs in addition to his struggles on the fast surface. Contrast this to his serving in the Wimbledon finals where Fed struggled mightily to get to break points against Djokers serve. That's a little worrying for Federer's chances at the USO if he has to go through the Djoker, despite his win at Cincy.
BeatlesFan
Bionic Poster
I find it amazing so many people think Kei has a chance to win the USO. What has he done this year? Basically nothing! It's not like he's had a Djoker-ish type of dominating year. And there's no way he can win 7 best 3/5 matches in the humidity and heat, he always breaks down.
swordtennis
G.O.A.T.
I give Federer at least 50% chance this year. Murrovic are drained out I really think that battle they had in Montreal f*cked them up bad. Nadal is not juiced up. Cilic raonic and Berdych are wacked out. Nishikori is frail and brittle. Maybe a dark horse will lite it up.
Also the semis are on Friday and final on sunday. Unless he has to play consecutive days he should be legit right to the SF's.
Also the semis are on Friday and final on sunday. Unless he has to play consecutive days he should be legit right to the SF's.
swordtennis
G.O.A.T.
That quick? I think he gets to the Quarters at least.
It's difficult to predict how well Federer will do at this stage. If he can defend his points, that would be a start.
After Djokovic lost last year, I got excited thinking now here's Federer's chance. But that didn't happen. If Federer gets into a long match in the early rounds(anything before the semis, maybe), that may be the end of him.
Of course, the draw is also a big factor.
After Djokovic lost last year, I got excited thinking now here's Federer's chance. But that didn't happen. If Federer gets into a long match in the early rounds(anything before the semis, maybe), that may be the end of him.
Of course, the draw is also a big factor.
He will not a drop a set against the likes of Agut or Bautista and everyone will say he is playing flawlessly. Then he will face a real opponent and collapse.
Djokovic2011
Bionic Poster
Pretty much the same way I feel. I think Federer may very well be holding up his 18th slam trophy in a few weeks time........and leaving 90's Clay with nightmares for the rest of the year.
swordtennis
G.O.A.T.
Good god can you image the Smug and counter rage on TTW? I do not even want to open this site up if it happens. lol I have a strange feeling we will not see Djokovic winning again until the WTF and the AO. Just a hunch. He looks gaunt and weary. Maybe he picks it up. But he had a big year already. I think he needs to focus on only a couple majors a year after he turns 29.
It's because it's BO5. Much more difficult to pull off at his age.
thomasferrett
Hall of Fame
I give Nadal a slightly better chance of winning it than Federer.
He looked to have re-gained a lot of form this American hardcourt series, and surely would have beaten Federer if Lopez had not put in an uncharacteristically gutsy performance.
Really the only people Nadal could lose to in best of 5 American hardcourt is Djokovic - and given how weary Djokovic has looked over the last couple of tournaments, I actually think Nadal would beat him.
He looked to have re-gained a lot of form this American hardcourt series, and surely would have beaten Federer if Lopez had not put in an uncharacteristically gutsy performance.
Really the only people Nadal could lose to in best of 5 American hardcourt is Djokovic - and given how weary Djokovic has looked over the last couple of tournaments, I actually think Nadal would beat him.
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