Roger Federer: "I dont see myself as the favorite for Wim'17. Rafa is the favorite!"

Bender

Bender

G.O.A.T.
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SpinToWin

SpinToWin

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  • Rafael Nadal: «Er führt mit tausenden von Punkten im Race to London und hat gerade erst Paris gewonnen. Er hat einen Riesenlauf.»
  • Andy Murray: «Auch wenn er in Queen’s früh ausgeschieden ist – er ist in Wimbledon Titelverteidiger.»
  • Novak Djokovic: «Er wird irgendwann einmal reagieren. Ich erwarte viel von ihm.»
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RN: He's leading the Race to London with thousands of points and just won Paris. He's having an amazing run.

AM: Even if he lost early in Queens - he is defending the title in Wimbledon.

ND: He'll react at some point. I expect a lot from him.


There's the reasoning folks. I mean... Rafa already doesn't make much sense, but the AM and ND reasoning is mind-boggling hahaha
 
frinton

frinton

Professional
SpinToWin said:
RN: He's leading the Race to London with thousands of points and just won Paris. He's having an amazing run.

AM: Even if he lost early in Queens - he is defending the title in Wimbledon.

ND: He'll react at some point. I expect a lot from him.


There's the reasoning folks. I mean... Rafa already doesn't make much sense, but the AM and ND reasoning is mind-boggling hahaha
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Nope!

RN: huge confidence, was clever to give himself some rest and started to practice on grass early. He could loose 1st or 2nd round for sure, but a top player like him, if he's in the 2nd week, he will raise his level and everything's possible.

AM: RF lost in his 1st Stuttgart match and won Halle. Murray showed improvements in RG and if physically he's still not at 100% its less of an issue on grass. Shorter points, shorter matches than clay. If he can make it to week 2...

ND: too good a player not to rebound at some point! He's been playing subpar in many majors going deep and raiding his level in semis and finals. He'll do it again - maybe not just yet, but who knows...

But sure, if all continues as planned, RF should have a really good shot at taking No. 8

And Stan is always good for a surprise, or Cilic knows how to win a Slam...just needs to get everything clicking again...


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Bukmeikara

Bukmeikara

Legend
Imagine if Wimbledon give some local club player a WC ala Dubai, Doha and he draws Roger in the first round .. " I have to play my very best to beat him, no ?!
 
fed_is_GOD

fed_is_GOD

Professional
favorite or not, it is important to take the pressue off of him..

we have seen what low expectations on fed can do (ala AO2017 when everyone practically wrote him off).-. he displayed some of his best tennis when he knew he had nothing to lose..

If he is the favorite and he wins, people will be like 'oh yeah he was supposed to win anyway'.. no good can come out of being the favorite.. so good play by federer ;)
 
T

Tennis_Hands

Banned
fed_is_GOD said:
favorite or not, it is important to take the pressue off of him..

we have seen what low expectations on fed can do (ala AO2017 when everyone practically wrote him off).-. he displayed some of his best tennis when he knew he had nothing to lose..

If he is the favorite and he wins, people will be like 'oh yeah he was supposed to win anyway'.. no good can come out of being the favorite.. so good play by federer ;)
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He is just messing with the journos.

He has been long enough in the business to have a realistic view of who has what chances (surely he fancies his a Lot).

And this applies to every tournament he enters, not only Wimbledon.

:cool:
 
TheGhostOfAgassi

TheGhostOfAgassi

Talk Tennis Guru
Tennis_Hands said:
He is just messing with the journos.

He has been long enough in the business to have a realistic view of who has what chances (surely he fancies his a Lot).

And this applies to every tournament he enters, not only Wimbledon.

:cool:
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I think you read too much into things... Speculating what Federer really thinks, a player you dont know personally and really have no idea what he is thinking,
 
icedevil0289

icedevil0289

G.O.A.T.
he also said something along the lines of just because he won in halle, it doesn't give him a wild card into the semi finals of wimbledon and everything starts from zero for anyone who thought he not only considered himself a favorite, but saw his name on the trophy.
 
TheGhostOfAgassi

TheGhostOfAgassi

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Tennis_Hands said:
Whatever you drink is not doing you any favours.

:cool:
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You cant say you know what is going on in Rogers head. You are 100% sure about something you cant know anything about. You even argue with people about it. Its speculations from your side, and you love to create some kind of drama. Expecting your period soon?
 
BVSlam

BVSlam

Professional
Not only is he experimenting with his tennis this year, hitting his groundstrokes with more oomph and trying to return very aggressively with the backhand, but he is also experimenting off the court, trying the humble statements Rafa often makes and downplaying himself over and over.

What a guy!
 
T

Tennis_Hands

Banned
TheGhostOfAgassi said:
You cant say you know what is going on in Rogers head. You are 100% sure about something you cant know anything about. You even argue with people about it. Its speculations from your side, and you love to create some kind of drama. Expecting your period soon?
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You should improve you reading skills.

:cool:
 
V

VexlanderPrime

Guest
SpinToWin said:
RN: He's leading the Race to London with thousands of points and just won Paris. He's having an amazing run.

AM: Even if he lost early in Queens - he is defending the title in Wimbledon.

ND: He'll react at some point. I expect a lot from him.


There's the reasoning folks. I mean... Rafa already doesn't make much sense, but the AM and ND reasoning is mind-boggling hahaha
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I actually see the reasoning. Fed knows that if these 3 guys play at thier historical averages then they're better than everyone else by a wide margin. Having been thru his own ups and downs he also knows that a great player can quickly pull out of a slump. As to Rafa, I'm sure Fed watched RG and knows Rafa is in the zone atm. Although his grass results have been awful, Fed rightfully calls him the fav based on his current level of play.

I think Fed is the favorite myself but anything can happen and I get his thought process.
 
SpinToWin

SpinToWin

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frinton said:
Nope!

RN: huge confidence, was clever to give himself some rest and started to practice on grass early. He could loose 1st or 2nd round for sure, but a top player like him, if he's in the 2nd week, he will raise his level and everything's possible.

AM: RF lost in his 1st Stuttgart match and won Halle. Murray showed improvements in RG and if physically he's still not at 100% its less of an issue on grass. Shorter points, shorter matches than clay. If he can make it to week 2...

ND: too good a player not to rebound at some point! He's been playing subpar in many majors going deep and raiding his level in semis and finals. He'll do it again - maybe not just yet, but who knows...

But sure, if all continues as planned, RF should have a really good shot at taking No. 8

And Stan is always good for a surprise, or Cilic knows how to win a Slam...just needs to get everything clicking again...


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Reasoning for calling them favourites for the Wimbledon title? I guess we have different standards as to what constitutes a "favourite" just before a slam.

Rafa hasn't proven grass court prowess in years now. To consider him a favourite for the title at this point is a reach; if he does get into the later rounds it's a different matter, but in that case he's more of a dark horse than a legitimate favourite in my book. Considering the lack of clear favourites outside of Federer, it at least makes some remote sense however.

As to Andy Murray... RF won the AO and the IW-M double early this year, already proving his level then. He then came back to Stuttgart after another long break and clearly needed match practice, losing rather unluckily (after being in a winning position) against a solid Tommy Haas. He's continuously raised his level match for match since. Murray on the other hand has been in a slump for the whole season and is losing to players left and right. The fast court will only exaggerate issues he already has, as he can't defend on the surface as he likes to when he isn't feeling the ball. He didn't lose against Wawrinka at the French because he couldn't hit through him, he lost because Wawrinka hit through him despite his defence. That tool is considerably less effective on grass.

ND: that's reasoning for calling him a favourite NOW? Please...

Come on, favourites are players judged by their CURRENT performance, otherwise Sampras could hit the tour now and we'd be calling him a Wimbledon favourite. Wawrinka won slams while not being a favourite, and that doesn't mean that we had judged the favourites wrong, that's a wrong use of the word.

Favourite - The competitor thought most likely to win a game or contest, especially by people betting on the outcome
 
clayqueen

clayqueen

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Feli is the favourite at Wimbledon for beating a quality player in the final at Queens with the World #1 in the draw.
 
Sport

Sport

G.O.A.T.
Probably he doesn't want to have all the pression on his shoulders. But he will have to deal with more pression than other players, since he is the clear favorite.
 
SpinToWin

SpinToWin

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VexlanderPrime said:
I actually see the reasoning. Fed knows that if these 3 guys play at thier historical averages then they're better than everyone else by a wide margin. Having been thru his own ups and downs he also knows that a great player can quickly pull out of a slump. As to Rafa, I'm sure Fed watched RG and knows Rafa is in the zone atm. Although his grass results have been awful, Fed rightfully calls him the fav based on his current level of play.

I think Fed is the favorite myself but anything can happen and I get his thought process.
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I don't consider that reasoning for calling them favourites now. If they were playing at their historical averages perhaps, but they aren't.
 
frinton

frinton

Professional
SpinToWin said:
Reasoning for calling them favourites for the Wimbledon title? I guess we have different standards as to what constitutes a "favourite" just before a slam.

Rafa hasn't proven grass court prowess in years now. To consider him a favourite for the title at this point is a reach; if he does get into the later rounds it's a different matter, but in that case he's more of a dark horse than a legitimate favourite in my book. Considering the lack of clear favourites outside of Federer, it at least makes some remote sense however.

As to Andy Murray... RF won the AO and the IW-M double early this year, already proving his level then. He then came back to Stuttgart after another long break and clearly needed match practice, losing rather unluckily (after being in a winning position) against a solid Tommy Haas. He's continuously raised his level match for match since. Murray on the other hand has been in a slump for the whole season and is losing to players left and right. The fast court will only exaggerate issues he already has, as he can't defend on the surface as he likes to when he isn't feeling the ball. He didn't lose against Wawrinka at the French because he couldn't hit through him, he lost because Wawrinka hit through him despite his defence. That tool is considerably less effective on grass.

ND: that's reasoning for calling him a favourite NOW? Please...

Come on, favourites are players judged by their CURRENT performance, otherwise Sampras could hit the tour now and we'd be calling him a Wimbledon favourite. Wawrinka won slams while not being a favourite, and that doesn't mean that we had judged the favourites wrong, that's a wrong use of the word.

Favourites - The competitors thought most likely to win a game or contest, especially by people betting on the outcome
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fixed the above for you. So, how many favourites can there be going into a slam with 128 guys in the field? I would say 4-6 is a good number - of course there can be 1 top-favourite, and only one. From what it looks like now, Roger get's that pole position. But if you have to name 4-5 more favourites to win Wimbledon, who would you pick? Obviously not the guy who was in 2 GS-finals this year, winning one, nor last year's champiom who had to catch up poor fitness after being sick at the very beginning of the year, obviously also not another multi GS-champ, who held all 4 GS-titles not so long ago (and also not for very long). How about Dustin Brown then?
Honestly, I'd put money on Roger, Rafa, Andy, Novak, Marin and Stan - if I had to pick 6 guys - you?
 
fed_is_GOD

fed_is_GOD

Professional
no one is seeing the idea behind this thread for what it is.. :rolleyes:

the idea is that 'its a good thing to deflect pressure'.. something which nadal has done year after year.. even at RG..

now its refreshing to see federer employ similar tactics..
 
SpinToWin

SpinToWin

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frinton said:
fixed the above for you. So, how many favourites can there be going into a slam with 128 guys in the field? I would say 4-6 is a good number - of course there can be 1 top-favourite, and only one. From what it looks like now, Roger get's that pole position. But if you have to name 4-5 more favourites to win Wimbledon, who would you pick? Obviously not the guy who was in 2 GS-finals this year, winning one, nor last year's champiom who had to catch up poor fitness after being sick at the very beginning of the year, obviously also not another multi GS-champ, who held all 4 GS-titles not so long ago (and also not for very long). How about Dustin Brown then?
Honestly, I'd put money on Roger, Rafa, Andy, Novak, Marin and Stan - if I had to pick 6 guys - you?
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The conception of there being a fixed number of favorites is a mistake. By favorites in general one does not mean something like "top 5 favorites", but the players who seem legitimately likely to win the title. I won't pick players who have not at all impressed just to fill spots on a list. This isn't 2012 where we had all of the Big 4 playing some big tennis throughout the year. It is the case that this year is a very open field with Fed seemingly well ahead of others in terms of being a favorite. I personally would say Fed is the favorite and leave it at that, though I might add Cilic actually. Nadal in terms of form coming into the tournament might be considered a favorite, but his recent performances at Wimby are way too much of a blemish in my book. If absolutely pressed to name many names I'd name these three, though I don't think that's accurate.

Form matters. No, currently I wouldn't add either Novak or Andy, they haven't been convincing at all. As I said, if Sampras came back on tour now he wouldn't be a favorite, you can't just go off past performances only and disregard current level of play.

Just a theoretical hypothetical:

If the likelihood of a player winning Wimby was 70%, another player's 20%, and the rest of the field shares the rest of the percentage in a logarithmic fashion (low likelihood for all of them albeit not the same), would you still look for 6 favorites?
 
frinton

frinton

Professional
SpinToWin said:
The conception of there being a fixed number of favorites is a mistake. By favorites in general one does not mean something like "top 5 favorites", but the players who seem legitimately likely to win the title. I won't pick players who have not at all impressed just to fill spots on a list. This isn't 2012 where we had all of the Big 4 playing some big tennis throughout the year. It is the case that this year is a very open field with Fed seemingly well ahead of others in terms of being a favorite. I personally would say Fed is the favorite and leave it at that, though I might add Cilic actually. Nadal in terms of form coming into the tournament might be considered a favorite, but his recent performances at Wimby are way too much of a blemish in my book. If absolutely pressed to name many names I'd name these three, though I don't think that's accurate.

Form matters. No, currently I wouldn't add either Novak or Andy, they haven't been convincing at all. As I said, if Sampras came back on tour now he wouldn't be a favorite, you can't just go off past performances only and disregard current level of play.

Just a theoretical hypothetical:

If the likelihood of a player winning Wimby was 70%, another player's 20%, and the rest of the field shares the rest of the percentage in a logarithmic fashion (low likelihood for all of them albeit not the same), would you still look for 6 favorites?
Click to expand...

So how do you calculate the likelihood of a player winning a tournament in %? I think your logic fails there. All we discuss is our opinions which are based on nothing much but thin air. Just out of curiosity, who were your favourites for Stuttgart, Halle and Queens? For the rest, I have my opinion, you have yours - let's leave it at that.
 
SpinToWin

SpinToWin

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frinton said:
So how do you calculate the likelihood of a player winning a tournament in %? I think your logic fails there. All we discuss is our opinions which are based on nothing much but thin air. Just out of curiosity, who were your favourites for Stuttgart, Halle and Queens? For the rest, I have my opinion, you have yours - let's leave it at that.
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My example was not meant to be a realistic portrayal of how to determine a favourite, it's supposed to be a simple example upon which you can apply your conception of favourites for clarity. It has nothing to do with "my logic".

If your opinions are based on nothing that's your problem, not mine. I base my assessments on form, past achievements/performances, etc.

I didn't follow the tournaments too closely since I'm currently busy IRL, so I can't tell you my favourites off the top of my head, I only followed the matches of players that interest me.
 
Antonio Puente

Antonio Puente

Hall of Fame
To sum up the attitude of Fed fans: at every turn, Fed fans downplay Nadal's chances at W while simultaneously openly hoping and praying a Nadal/Fed final never happens.
 
clayqueen

clayqueen

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Feli is the in-form grass player having reached one final in a tournament featuring Federer and winning the other featuring the #1 ranked player, beating a GS winner in the final. On that basis, how could he not be the favourite for Wimbledon?
 
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