2022 Djokovic vs 2009 Roddick at Wimbledon

[RS]

Absolute level is Djokovic eyes closed.


Relative level

Arguments for Roddick.
1. Wow he beat Hewitt
2. Wow he beat Murray
3. Wow he went 14-16 in 5th against Fed.
4. Roddick led H2H 5-4

Arguments for Djokovic.
1. Djokovic won 60% of games vs Roddicks 53%
2. Roddick beat 2009 Hewitt and 2009 Murray in super close matches.
3. Federers returning was godawful in 2009 Wimbledon. He only broke like 16% of games. Roddick had higher 1serve%won in the final compared to the rest of the tournament. Despite going from 20% aces average to 11% aces vs Federer, first% points won went up from 80% to 82%.
4. Despite eating a huge load of aces, Djokovic actually handled the Kyrgios serve. Kyrgios hit like 25% aces for the match, but only won 70% on 1st serve on grass, which is super low on that ace%.
5. Kyrgios has a better backhand than Roddick had, meaning he's actually considerably more annoying for Djokovic in rallies.
6. Djokovic won Wimbledon 7 times. Roddick 0 times. Nitpicking detail I know.

In reality, the question isn't really "who do you think wins this hypothetical match" but more like "Do you look at tennis of 15 years ago with some real rose tined glasses?" or "do you resent that Djokovic is still winning this much?".

People remember being excited by the 2009 match. They remember rooting for Roddick or at least being extremely impressed with how he fought in that match and thinking he would've been a worthy winner. Meanwhile Djokovic' last 2 Wimbledon runs have been kinda lacklustre boring draws with some shaky matches mixed in where he wakes up for 15 minutes every match to swing his big Djoker around and win by default. Apart from Djokovic fans, it hasn't been exciting. He won against the Nextgen + Kyrgios, and not even the well liked or high rated players of that generation.

I understand there's a very clear emotional reason to shoehorn Roddick into winning this. But I also think this debate is the same circular argument that comes back time and time again. 35 year olds can't play great tennis, therefore the current generation of younger players must be worse than ever. Bonus points for also giving huge excuses for a lot painful Federer losses.

My counterargument to that would basically be this. Most old players fall off due to chronic/recurring injury much more so than slowing down, OR in cases like Lleyton Hewitt, the game passes them by technically. When healthy, 35 year olds can still play great tennis, which is aided tremendously by improved medicine, PEDs, and recovery methods. If 35 year olds couldn't play good tennis, Agassi should have never gotten good results at 33-35 with worse medical science 20 years ago. Instead he almost beat Federer and never went down in straights at a Slam. This was the peakiest of peak Federer no less.

At the same time, if you look at other sports, you see a huge increase of older athletes keeping up their level into their mid to late 30s. Messi wins his WC at like 35. Ibrahimovic plays Serie A at like 39. CR7 while washed up as **** right now was still a world class striker at like 37. Tom Brady dominates a meme sport at like 82. Justin Gatlin won the 100m WC at 35. LeBron James still dominates at 38. And note that I would happily be countered here with the argument that basketbal is a meme sport.

Tl;dr Roddicks 2009 run was far more inspiring than Djokovic 2022 run. But Djokovic still wins it.

Oh and 2004 Roddick was better than 2009, especially on relative level and that would actually be a match.

Only part that confuses me is when people say Kyrgios hit his BH better. I am not good with that kind of stuff by shot analysis but is this actually true?

Would you give 2004 Roddick the win?

 

[Beerus]

 

[Red Rick]

Only part that confuses me is when people say Kyrgios hit his BH better. I am not good with that kind of stuff by shot analysis but is this actually true?

Would you give 2004 Roddick the win?

2004 ****ed if I know. I just maintain it was a much better individual match from Roddic. Federer stats were insane and Roddick pushed him real hard. Maybe Roddicks spot serving and returning werent good enough, but whatever.

Kyrgios' backhand isn't a huge weapon, but it's very solid and much harder to attack than Roddicks because it's much flatter.

 

[RS]

I am doing the work for you. Just keep making the threads.

 

[Beerus]

I am doing the work for you. Just keep making the threads.

Thank you. However, my peak is gone.

 

[Beerus]

 

[RS]

How does 2022 Djokovic do vs 2009 Murray?

 

[RS]

It will never happen again.

 

[fedfan24]

kyrgios took a set and had chances.. roddick is a superior version so i think 5 set and he wins

 

[Beerus]

I am doing the work for you. Just keep making the threads.

Would 2017 Nadal vs 2011 Federer at Roland Garros be good?

 

[RS]

Would 2017 Nadal vs 2011 Federer at Roland Garros be good?

Should be decent. Depends.

2007 Fed would probably have a better chance of being a better thread I think.

 

[NatF]

Only part that confuses me is when people say Kyrgios hit his BH better. I am not good with that kind of stuff by shot analysis but is this actually true?

Would you give 2004 Roddick the win?

Roddick hit his backhand in that 2009 match better than Kyrgios in 2022. Their average levels aren't too relevant here. Roddick actually being able to pressure Djokovic with his forehand would probably be more annoying anyway...

 

[RS]

 

[Beerus]

Should be decent. Depends.

2007 Fed would probably have a better chance of being a better thread I think.

I could create that one.

 

[RS]

I could create that one.

I created a similar but not quite the same one some time back. It was a decent discussion and not super bad faith.

 

[RS]

We have used up every possible thread idea.

 

[TheNachoMan]

We have used up every possible thread idea.

2006 Srichaphan vs 2022 Griekspoor

 

[RS]

2006 Srichaphan vs 2022 Griekspoor

You don't want to get a ban

 

[Beerus]

2006 Srichaphan vs 2022 Griekspoor

I'd rather use 2006 Koku...

 

[TMF]

Roddick in 4.

No way a 35 years old Nole beat 2009 Roddick who has a 5-4 H2H advantage

 

[Herald]

An inspired troll thread, and transparent attempt to fuel the war between Fed and Nole fans. Unfortunately if we get serious for a moment we realize our Fedfan smiles will droop as it dawns on us that Roddick's admittedly career high form, fitness and movement would bump but not break Novak, who is light years beyond Roddick in every aspect of the game besides the forehand, which he is only stratospherically superior and the serve in which Roddick is superior.

 

[Kralingen]

Sorry for the HGH stuff. But just one more.

LeBron James still dominates at 38. And note that I would happily be countered here with the argument that basketbal is a meme sport.

LeBron is significantly, like levels more, athletically gifted than anyone else mentioned here tbh. Literally zero humans who have ever lived have the height, strength, speed, power, and coordination combination he possesses. He is the singular greatest raw athlete in North American sports history by a pretty large distance.

 

[TheNachoMan]

Sorry for the HGH stuff. But just one more.

LeBron is significantly, like levels more, athletically gifted than anyone else mentioned here tbh. Literally zero humans who have ever lived have the height, strength, speed, power, and coordination combination he possesses. He is the singular greatest raw athlete in North American sports history by a pretty large distance.

Phelps and Bolt ROFLstomp him

 

[Kralingen]

Phelps and Bolt ROFLstomp him

Bolt is hilariously uncoordinated if you’ve watched him play those friendly matches. Decathlon athletes and “time based” racing athletes who optimize their bodies to produce peak performance are definitely faster. But stronger? No way.

What I’m referring to also includes stuff like balance, coordination, proprioception. These other guys don’t even play contact sports ffs, what makes LeBron so great is his ability to go through a 6’11”, 280 lb man like he’s not even there, and absorb contact like no player ever has.

Having said all that, his footwork and high center of gravity would make him a pretty poor tennis player or footballer, so it’s all relative.

 

[Red Rick]

Sorry for the HGH stuff. But just one more.

LeBron is significantly, like levels more, athletically gifted than anyone else mentioned here tbh. Literally zero humans who have ever lived have the height, strength, speed, power, and coordination combination he possesses. He is the singular greatest raw athlete in North American sports history by a pretty large distance.

I generally get very sceptical when things like that get claimed, especially when we're talking a guy who's 2.06, meaning the sample size in that height window is tiny and meaning he's wholly unsuitable to nearly every sport out there.

But for basketball specifically, I'm very inclined to LOL sample size.

 

[Kralingen]

I generally get very sceptical when things like that get claimed, especially when we're talking a guy who's 2.06, meaning the sample size in that height window is tiny and meaning he's wholly unsuitable to nearly every sport out there.

But for basketball specifically, I'm very inclined to LOL sample size.

Basketball is the best, most beautiful sport played on two feet tbh. Tennis a close second.

 

[Red Rick]

What I’m referring to also includes stuff like balance, coordination, proprioception. These other guys don’t even play contact sports ffs, what makes LeBron so great is his ability to go through a 6’11”, 280 lb man like he’s not even there, and absorb contact like no player ever has.

Yeah that sounds about like in the land of the blind the one eyed man is king., I also don't rate basketball that highly for fine coordination cause the ball is huge and it's a very high scoring sport.

I actually do think tennis translates a lot better to a lot of other sports than many others.

 

[Red Rick]

Basketball is the best, most beautiful sport played on two feet tbh. Tennis a close second.

Let's agree that it's better than NFL and leave it there

 

[TheNachoMan]

Basketball is the best, most beautiful sport played on two feet tbh. Tennis a close second.

 

[Kralingen]

I may be biased as I’m really only familiar with sports I’ve played or seen regularly. It could be that the best cricketer or squash or handballer requires an elite level of athleticism and I’m just sleeping on them. I suppose every great pro athlete has some rare gifts and they’re all extremely talented in their own field.

But in all the sports I’ve played (I’ve seen a 90mph fastball in baseball, played against pro players in soccer (football), basketball, played flag football with a college player, hit with a D1/low level ITF guy in tennis), I’ve never felt quite as awed or outmatched as I did watching the basketball player. That experience stuck with me. Of course, a boxer or MMA fighter would be the ultimate experience of this, they would KO me within seconds. But obviously that’s a different kind of athletic ability.

 

[alexio]

never liked basketball, whether it's playing at school or watching it after that, i can only make a rare exception if it's the nba, but that's all

 

[Martin J]

never liked basketball, whether it's playing at school or watching it after that, i can only make a rare exception if it's the nba, but that's all

Does this mean Roddick in 4 or..?

 

[TheFifthSet]

It actually depends a lot on the conditions. In hot dry ones like '09 Wimby I'll take Roddick, but no matter what the set scorelines will likely be close. Roddick is not likely to run away with sets even against diminished versions of Fed, Novak etc. At the same time, he served so damn well that if he perfectly replicates that serving form it's tough to see Novak making many inroads on many return games. In 08-like conditions I would take Djoko, but again it would come down to a few points. One thing people forget is how the dynamics of grasscourt tennis basically ensure close scorelines 90% of the time between two players with great hold games usually even when there's a big subjective gap in relative or absolute level. So despite Roddick's run being more impressive (and his form IMO would hold up much better against 09 Fed than 22 Djoko's would), this comparison is no laugher.

3. Federers returning was godawful in 2009 Wimbledon. He only broke like 16% of games. Roddick had higher 1serve%won in the final compared to the rest of the tournament. Despite going from 20% aces average to 11% aces vs Federer, first% points won went up from 80% to 82%.

Fed's returning in that event gets way too much flak man. A draw consisting of Kohli, Sod, Karlovic, Haas and Roddick will drive your return stats way down especially in hotter conditions. I mean Karlo in 118 career grass matches has been broken over 3 times in only two of them...once by Murray...and never more than 4...so that's an automatic 0-2 break match, and Fed's career rgw is 9% against him. Never mind that this was PEAK servebot Karlo on grass that went the previous 8 matches without giving up a break, three of them against top 10 players. Soderling served well and even in the previous Wimbledon, Fed broke a lesser Soderling only 3x in 3 sets. Then you have Haas whose hold game is great on grass and had his best grass court season.

Fed broke at a 23.7% rate going into the final, then went up against a Roddick that had his best serving performance. That's not "godawful", it's no worse than breaking Nadal a combined 4x in 10 sets in '07-'08 and missing 34% of second serve returns in '08.

Bolded: not shocking, Hewitt and Murray are elite first serve returners just as Fed is.

 

[RS]

Both finals some of the most controversial finals in debates.

 

[kishnabe]

If 2009 Conditions, with beaming sun. Roddick in 3.

 

[The Guru]

One wonders what Jannik Sinner would do to Roddick given that he was up 2-0 on the dominant Novack

One wonders what hip Hewitt would do to Novak given he took Roddick the distance

 

[RS]

I get the impression abmk will pop out of nowhere at some point

 

[NatF]

One wonders what hip Hewitt would do to Novak given he took Roddick the distance

Probably beats him if it's in the QF you're right.

 

[The Guru]

Probably beats him if it's in the QF you're right.

lol

 

[Kralingen]

One wonders what hip Hewitt would do to Novak given he took Roddick the distance

I trust him more than I do Sinner tbh. Hell, he took a set from Novak in the 2012 Olympics of all places

I will say Novak’s 2007 win over Hewitt is hugely underrated on TTW

 

[NatF]

I trust him more than I do Sinner tbh

I will say Novak’s 2007 win over Hewitt is hugely underrated on TTW

Unclutch from Lleyton, not enough aggression and pressing of his advantage in key moments. Good win for Djokovic though, people forget how big Djokovic would hit at times in those days.

lol

We saw what happened in 2012

 

[TheFifthSet]

At the same time, if you look at other sports, you see a huge increase of older athletes keeping up their level into their mid to late 30s. Messi wins his WC at like 35. Ibrahimovic plays Serie A at like 39. CR7 while washed up as **** right now was still a world class striker at like 37. Tom Brady dominates a meme sport at like 82. Justin Gatlin won the 100m WC at 35. LeBron James still dominates at 38. And note that I would happily be countered here with the argument that basketbal is a meme sport.

This too I gotta take issue with. It's oft-repeated that today's athletes are mwuaaaach mwuaaaaaaach older based on a few outliers (that existed in other time periods no less) without actually examining the data lol:

I’m trying to approach this w/an open mind but I kinda don’t see the stark difference you do here. In some sports, like soccer, there is good evidence to suggest players sustain their primes a little longer. In many other sports though, when looking at the data, it’s not so clear.

Avg NBA player age in 1980 - 26.5.

Avg NBA player age in 2022 - 26.2

The oldest player to ever win a finals MVP remains Kareem (at 38), who was a perennial Top 5 player in his 30’s. Incidentally he was 1980’s MVP, at 33. The leading rebounder in the league was 30. Larry Bird was the only member of the first team All-NBA team younger than 28.

Age of the Top 5 MVP vote-getters?

33, 29, 27, 23, 31 in 1980.

26, 27, 27, 22, 25 in 2022.

Avg MLB player age in 1980 - 28.2

Avg MLB player age in 2022 - 28.2 (down from 28.4 in 2021).

The leader in WAR that year was 36 year old Steve Carlton. Phil Niekro was still an all-star calibre pitcher at 41, and would remain that way until 46. Schmidt and Brett won the MVP’s that year, at 31 and 27.

In the NL, the Top 5 MVP vote-getters were aged, 31, 26, 33, 31 and 36.

In the AL they were 27, 34, 29, 25 and 31.

In 2022?

35, 30, 31, 33 and 29 in the NL.

30, 28, 25, 30 and 30 in the AL.

Virtually identical in almost every respect. No evidence players decline much slower now in baseball.

Avg NHL player age in 1998 (first year this stat is available on HockeyRef) - 27.7

Avg NHL player age in 2022 - 28.2 (27.9 as recently as two years ago though).

The top five vote-getters in ‘98? 33, 25, 27, 25, 37.

‘22? 24, 25, 26, 28, 28.

Again, negligible. For every Jagr of the 2010’s I can point to a Howe of the late 60’s (All-Star at 40) and early 80’s (contributing second-line player at 51).

Don’t have much long-term data on the NFL but the average age now is about 26…I don’t imagine it was ever much younger than that. QB’s last a little longer now, but there are more rules in place to protect them today. RB’s, WR’s, CB’s etc burn out as quick as they ever have. The most longevous WR ever is Jerry Rice, and he retired in ‘04. Favre was an MVP candidate in ‘09, at 40. Marcus Allen made a PB at 33 in 1993, which is almost unheard of for a running back. Elway made consecutive Pro Bowls at 37-38 in ‘97-‘98, ending his career with two Super Bowl wins. Jurgensen’s best run of form was arguably from 33-35. Unitas won an MVP in ‘67, at 34, Tarkenton in ‘75 at 35. Fouts entered his prime in his late 20’s, and remained effective into his mid-late 30’s, in the early 80’s. Len Dawson began his in his late 20’s and remained effective into his mid 30’s. The list goes on.

In tennis, players are absolutely older now, but I wouldn’t pin that primarily on athlete self-care OR the field getting weaker. I think there’s a third culprit:


^before graphite, tennis players sustained good form into later ages for the sports entire history. Only when the tour conditions were shaken up did the average age change significantly (that’s not to say that 30’s were ever a median prime/peak age, however). Then as things started to stabilize, it happened again with polyester, prolonging the “tennis is a sport for zygotes” meme. But older (relative to the 70s-90s) players succeeding (again, relative to 70s-90s standards which still shape our perceptions) was the norm for the first 100 or so years.

More on the rest later, I’m sleepy af.

The boring conclusion is that modern athletes do genuinely seem to age a bit better in soccer today (a sport I don't really follow much on the professional level today so I'll just take it on faith that it's by as big a gap as everyone says)...but almost exactly the same in every major North American pro sport as their predecessors did. They age at the same rate in basketball, football, hockey and baseball, and there are the same amount of outliers. Zero, absolutely zero difference...all across the board.

Athletes age better now in tennis than their 70's-90's counterparts, sure...but tennis was as "old" a sport pre-1980ish as it is today, and I went over why I believe that is in the quoted post.

No doubt modern medicine has helped older athletes keep up with the rigors of the sport/training methods made them more injury-resistant but simply listing a few older guys in each sport is a terrible look when the overall age distribution in those sports where the conditions are at least somewhat static is almost exactly the same as 40 years ago.

 

[RS]

lol

How do you see 2005 Hewitt doing here?

 

[Red Rick]

This too I gotta take issue with. It's oft-repeated that today's athletes are mwuaaaach mwuaaaaaaach older based on a few outliers (that existed in other time periods no less) without actually examining the data lol:

Well we're not talking about average players, we're literally talking about the most extreme outliers.

Although I do like to start flame wars over which player is the most average of all time. I always get to Seppi

 

[TheFifthSet]

Well we're not talking about average players, we're literally talking about the most extreme outliers.

Yeah you deffo didn't read the post lol. I go over that too. There were actually slightly more age-related outliers at the top back then in 3 of the 4 North American pro sports I looked at, while football seems to be the exact same except for Quarterback (and even then it's actually very close lol), a position the rules have been significantly changed for to prevent them getting injured so much.

 

[TheFifthSet]

Although I do like to start flame wars over which player is the most average of all time. I always get to Seppi

Haha, good nomination.

Kohli might not be average but his metronomic play was frustrating. From Jan 07-June 19 he was always at least in the top 60 but never cracked the top 15, and spent about 90% of it ranked between 20-40. He was 1-10 in fourth round slam matches and was mostly cannon fodder for even the established gatekeepers, but also won just enough against the Top 10 (25-103) to not be a complete afterthought.

you’d think given his staying power he’d have made the top 10 at least once. But he was almost exactly the same player at all times. So maybe not the most average but certainly played at or close to HIS average more than anyone that pops into my head.

 

[The Guru]

How do you see 2005 Hewitt doing here?

Definitely could give him trouble in the way that Djokovic has a hard time hitting through elite movers nowadays. He's prolly be like a tougher Med without the weakness in passing shots so the net isn't an easy option to finish points either. Honestly might be a tougher matchup than Roddick given how Novak eats big serve big forehand weak BH guys.

 

[djokovic the conqueror]

Djokovic wins this match in straight sets. He would neutralize Roddick's serve and win almost all the baseline rallies. Roddick wouldn't even get a single break point because Djokovic's serve would be too much for Roddick's below average return.

 

[Third Serve]

Djokovic wins this match in straight sets. He would neutralize Roddick's serve and win almost all the baseline rallies. Roddick wouldn't even get a single break point because Djokovic's serve would be too much for Roddick's below average return.

Novak’s serve is better than Fed’s?

 

[President]

Roddick beat 2009 Andy Murray, who played much better than anyone Djokovic faced last year. Roddick in 4