2023 Nationals Week 1 Simulations Posted - Texas 3.5 at it again

[schmke]

I've posted all my simulations/predictions on my blog for the first weekend of Nationals. The simulation says there are some pretty clear favorites, we'll see how it plays out.

The 18+ 3.5 is going on this weekend and I noticed that a notorious Texas captain is returning to Nationals. Given the history, I had to take a look at the roster to see if there are any shenanigans again.

One player was playing juniors in 2016 and 2017, winning some matches at the open level. Played only Combo in 2017 and somehow got a 4.5D, probably administrative as he was rostered as a 3.5, and as a result got a 4.5C at year-end. Self-rates as a 4.5 in 2021, appeals it down to 4.0, then doesn't play until 2022 and tanks three matches (plus one other retirement) to get a 3.5C. Yep, shenanigans.

Another was a 4.5C in 2013, then a 4.0C for many years and appealing down to 3.5 in 2021. Winning easily this year. Probably minor shenanigans.

Another was a 4.0C for many years, another 2021 appeal down, now winning easily.

Another 2021 self-rate who lost badly that year getting a 3.5C, didn't play last year, now winning easily. Probably shenanigans from 2021.

Another 4.0C for several years, tanked last year getting a 3.5 and now winning. Yep, shenanigans.

Another self-rate perhaps with just one strike, not obviously managing (but hard to tell), but definitely will be a 4.0. Perhaps not shenanigans but still an out of level self-rate.

Another self-rate that may have kept matches close early, also will be a 4.0C so even if not managed, an out of level self-rate.

Another self-rate like the above two.

Another 4.5 from 2013, then 4.0 for many years, tanked three matches last year to be able to appeal down. Yep, shenanigans.

Another player bouncing back and forth between 3.5 and 4.0, tanked matches last year, now winning. Yep, shenanigans.

Another self-rate that will be bumped up.

Another 3.5S who had been a 4.0 for years until mysterious bad losses. Probably shenanigans.

Then finally a self-rate that is right on the edge of being bumped up. Perhaps a legit 3.5S!

Yes, they are the favorite to win it all. I'm embarrassed for the USTA ...

 

[Vox Rationis]

Probably realized he had to step things up after getting embarrassed (in his eyes) by Utah. I did notice the last couple years he seems to have a good thing going captaining a 4.0 team to winless seasons over and over again.

 

[norcal]

They should have to name their team, 'Shenanigans'.

Winning open matches, now playing 3.5...I think 'shenanigans' is too kind actually.

 

[BallBag]

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Amazing, sad for Texas.

 

[JordanWinning]

I've posted all my simulations/predictions on my blog for the first weekend of Nationals. The simulation says there are some pretty clear favorites, we'll see how it plays out.

The 18+ 3.5 is going on this weekend and I noticed that a notorious Texas captain is returning to Nationals. Given the history, I had to take a look at the roster to see if there are any shenanigans again.

One player was playing juniors in 2016 and 2017, winning some matches at the open level. Played only Combo in 2017 and somehow got a 4.5D, probably administrative as he was rostered as a 3.5, and as a result got a 4.5C at year-end. Self-rates as a 4.5 in 2021, appeals it down to 4.0, then doesn't play until 2022 and tanks three matches (plus one other retirement) to get a 3.5C. Yep, shenanigans.

Another was a 4.5C in 2013, then a 4.0C for many years and appealing down to 3.5 in 2021. Winning easily this year. Probably minor shenanigans.

Another was a 4.0C for many years, another 2021 appeal down, now winning easily.

Another 2021 self-rate who lost badly that year getting a 3.5C, didn't play last year, now winning easily. Probably shenanigans from 2021.

Another 4.0C for several years, tanked last year getting a 3.5 and now winning. Yep, shenanigans.

Another self-rate perhaps with just one strike, not obviously managing (but hard to tell), but definitely will be a 4.0. Perhaps not shenanigans but still an out of level self-rate.

Another self-rate that may have kept matches close early, also will be a 4.0C so even if not managed, an out of level self-rate.

Another self-rate like the above two.

Another 4.5 from 2013, then 4.0 for many years, tanked three matches last year to be able to appeal down. Yep, shenanigans.

Another player bouncing back and forth between 3.5 and 4.0, tanked matches last year, now winning. Yep, shenanigans.

Another self-rate that will be bumped up.

Another 3.5S who had been a 4.0 for years until mysterious bad losses. Probably shenanigans.

Then finally a self-rate that is right on the edge of being bumped up. Perhaps a legit 3.5S!

Yes, they are the favorite to win it all. I'm embarrassed for the USTA ...

Woof. Watched them on court this morning and they looked good. Sounds like they’re REAL good

 

[schmke]

Woof. Watched them on court this morning and they looked good. Sounds like they’re REAL good

Yeah, 5-0 win over a Mid-Atlantic team with 8 players over 3.50. And every match in straight sets to boot.

What was the make-up of Mid-Atlantic? Nearly all are 3.5C, just two 3.5S that played enough matches to be eligible and they are the two lowest rated 3.5s on the team by my ratings. Just one was a 3.5A and that was last year after a single year of getting a 4.0C. Only one other player has any history of a 4.0C and that was last from 2018.

 

[BallBag]

I would like to believe that this captain isn't after 3.5 Nationals glory but has spent considerable time and resources to protest the USTA's Nationals regulations. Maybe he is just pushing the shenanigans to their ultimate destinations to inspire the USTA to do something. It doesn't look like there's anything that would get his players disqualified. There's no way to prove that there was any sandbagging. I hope someone is recording the matches. I think it would be funny to compare a "National' 3.5 to a 3.5 at home.

 

[Tiafoe]

Shady players for sure, but the team actually lost at districts and narrowly won their sectional championship. Maybe they really managed their scores? Totally different strategy than Fowkes. His c-rated teams demolished mostly everyone in their path for years.

 

[schmke]

If he is doing it just to make a statement, he is choosing to do it over and over again. He's been to and won Nationals numerous times in the past, sometimes in alternating years where he employed the win then tank then win strategy. This year he has the 40+ 3.5 team at Nationals too. 2019 he also did the double. Prior years too including winning in 2015. So yeah, I think it is 3.5 Nationals glory.

He is actually a 4.0 now, but his sweetspot is captaining 3.5 teams and it appears there may be a relative (same last name) on the team, one of the 3.5S players. Perhaps a son, but just guessing. But in his 4.0 matches this year he had 12 consecutive lopsided losses. Hmmm. This after 12 consecutive lopsided losses last year didn't work to get him bumped down.

 

[JordanWinning]

I’ve had a pretty good year at 3.5, and have certainly enjoyed winning, but almost-sorta-kinda-maybe-not-technically cheating to win 3.5 nationals is corny as hell. I realize this group is pretty United on that front, but my goodness that’s lame.

When semi west won in 2021, there certainly were some guys on that team that could have played up, but they haven’t played around with their ratings since and I don’t know anyone that has tried to tank their rating in Indy (a few guys in Fort Wayne have some suspicious loses to stay 3.5s).

Again, I really like winning, but cheating to win at 3.5 just seems like the epitome of lame

 

[TennisOTM]

Meanwhile I'm over here hustling and scrapping in my 4.0 matches fighting to get any wins at all, which are few and far between. And what do I get for my efforts? I try to see earning that 4.0C three times (soon to be four I think) in a row as an accomplishment, but I also get "rewarded" with a heaping pile of L's, low playing time on better teams, one-and-done in tournaments, and nearly zero chance of playing in playoff matches.

How easy would it be to lay off the gas for a couple of months and then get to be a coveted 3.5 player? I've resisted the temptation, partly because I'm convinced I can become a good 4.0 player with more work, but maybe I'm delusional. Anyway, even if I was a 3.5 player right now going to Nationals, I'd probably be getting smoked by these guys, who sound like they are all better than my entire low-end 4.0 team.

 

[TypeRx]

As someone who "fell wrath" to the Texas team during 2019 nationals, none of this is surprising. The captain recruits far and wide and picks up a lot of VERY strong self-rated players.

 

[time_fly]

This is just one more issue with USTA using Nationals to normalize NTRP levels across regions. Does this really prove that Texas is much stronger than other sections, or does it just prove they have the biggest d-bag captain?

And I‘m sorry but who spends a year or two intentionally losing matches just to go to some weekend tournament?

 

[BallBag]

If he is doing it just to make a statement, he is choosing to do it over and over again. He's been to and won Nationals numerous times in the past, sometimes in alternating years where he employed the win then tank then win strategy. This year he has the 40+ 3.5 team at Nationals too. 2019 he also did the double. Prior years too including winning in 2015. So yeah, I think it is 3.5 Nationals glory.

He is actually a 4.0 now, but his sweetspot is captaining 3.5 teams and it appears there may be a relative (same last name) on the team, one of the 3.5S players. Perhaps a son, but just guessing. But in his 4.0 matches this year he had 12 consecutive lopsided losses. Hmmm. This after 12 consecutive lopsided losses last year didn't work to get him bumped down.

But what point does someone at USTA start feeling that maybe something isn't right with the way they are running this? These guys are obviously tanking and not even trying to hide it anymore.
@JordanWinning can you record some of those matches? I'm curious if looks like the Nationals level 4.0 that's on the other thread

 

[silverwyvern4]

If he is doing it just to make a statement, he is choosing to do it over and over again. He's been to and won Nationals numerous times in the past, sometimes in alternating years where he employed the win then tank then win strategy. This year he has the 40+ 3.5 team at Nationals too. 2019 he also did the double. Prior years too including winning in 2015. So yeah, I think it is 3.5 Nationals glory.

He is actually a 4.0 now, but his sweetspot is captaining 3.5 teams and it appears there may be a relative (same last name) on the team, one of the 3.5S players. Perhaps a son, but just guessing. But in his 4.0 matches this year he had 12 consecutive lopsided losses. Hmmm. This after 12 consecutive lopsided losses last year didn't work to get him bumped down.

It looks like all his losses were with a 3.5 partner facing high 4.0s. So maybe not tanking?

 

[schmke]

But what point does someone at USTA start feeling that maybe something isn't right with the way they are running this? These guys are obviously tanking and not even trying to hide it anymore.
@JordanWinning can you record some of those matches? I'm curious if looks like the Nationals level 4.0 that's on the other thread

Every year I let the folks I know at the USTA know about these blatant cases of tanking or exploiting the rules (or lack thereof). Perhaps this year they will agree there is a problem. Unfortunately getting them there may require Texas blows out everyone they play and wins it all.

 

[schmke]

It looks like all his losses were with a 3.5 partner facing high 4.0s. So maybe not tanking?

Perhaps not, it didn't work last year as he got a 4.0C again. Although I wonder if Texas or National is at least making sure he doesn't get bumped down even if he still captains 3.5 teams.

 

[schmke]

It looks like all his losses were with a 3.5 partner facing high 4.0s. So maybe not tanking?

Well, this year he has played with 4.0C partners in every match. And last year most if not all were 4.0s at the time, but the tank job worked for some of them as they are now 3.5C or 3.5A. So no, I won't change and say they weren't tank jobs.

 

[Justagamefool]

I wish National had the guts to hand these "winning" teams the trophy at the end but not take their pictures or do any formal presentation. Of course, it then becomes a slippery slope. If the belief is that it takes a little bit of cheating to get to Nationals, when does it become too much to recognize a team. Hmm, maybe focus on growing tennis, local league play, and stop incentivizing cheating by creating a National Championship or Invitational for every freaking league.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

Shady players for sure, but the team actually lost at districts and narrowly won their sectional championship. Maybe they really managed their scores? Totally different strategy than Fowkes. His c-rated teams demolished mostly everyone in their path for years.

Personally, I don't think he is having them manage their scores in a match like for the Sectional championship. I agree with you that he is employing a totally different strategy. I think the Utah captain's strategy works really well at the 4.0 level. One can technically self-rate at 4.0 with a considerable tennis history. It's harder to do that at the 3.5 level, so one can employ the long-game strategy of getting the computer rating. The Texas captain is obviously trying to load his roster up as much as possible using shenanigans. In the playoffs, he is up against some other strong players though. Other teams will have players at the 4.5ish level by the time of 3.5 playoffs. For 4.0 Nationals, not as many teams will have players with that much of a difference in level, which is why having really experienced people who can get to that higher ceiling works better. It's harder to "improve" as one gets a higher rating.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

I'm embarrassed for the USTA ...

This is a really strong statement from you. Of course, it is warranted. I don't see much difference from what he is doing versus what the Utah captain has been doing. It's all very embarrassing for USTA. Leadership just doesn't care enough to stop it.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

Perhaps this year they will agree there is a problem.

Unfortunately, I seriously doubt it.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

Texas just beat a team playing out of the Utah captain's facility. How ironic would that be if the Utah team filed a complaint? Maybe they have a gentlemanly agreement on no snitching.

 

[schmke]

Texas just beat a team playing out of the Utah captain's facility. How ironic would that be if the Utah team filed a complaint? Maybe they have a gentlemanly agreement on no snitching.

What would the complaint be? I don't think the USTA hears any grievances during Nationals for anything other than a fake ID perhaps.

 

[schmke]

I’ve had a pretty good year at 3.5, and have certainly enjoyed winning, but almost-sorta-kinda-maybe-not-technically cheating to win 3.5 nationals is corny as hell. I realize this group is pretty United on that front, but my goodness that’s lame.

When semi west won in 2021, there certainly were some guys on that team that could have played up, but they haven’t played around with their ratings since and I don’t know anyone that has tried to tank their rating in Indy (a few guys in Fort Wayne have some suspicious loses to stay 3.5s).

Again, I really like winning, but cheating to win at 3.5 just seems like the epitome of lame

The team is from Houston ... I hear the captain was seen wearing an Astros hat ...

 

[Racquet Scientist]

What would the complaint be? I don't think the USTA hears any grievances during Nationals for anything other than a fake ID perhpas.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

The complaint would be for the list that you started this posting with. I realize that such grievances cannot technically be filed during Nationals. I was building on your statement that "getting them there may require Texas blows out everyone they play and wins it all."

I think many of us are exasperated that USTA will not do anything and just let people get away with this stuff. USTA makes the rules for their leagues. They should adapt based on things like this happening--even if that requires taking actions during Nationals, etc. It's so bad to me that I have just given up on them. But I find it intellectually interesting and entertaining to monitor.

 

[TypeRx]

The simplest fix (not full but partial fix) would be to NOT allow self-rates to participate in nationals. Policing tanking and what not is very hard.

 

[schmke]

The simplest fix (not full but partial fix) would be to NOT allow self-rates to participate in nationals. Policing tanking and what not is very hard.

I've suggested it in the past and again this year. Perhaps slowly gaining traction.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

The simplest fix (not full but partial fix) would be to NOT allow self-rates to participate in nationals. Policing tanking and what not is very hard.

Going after assholes and bullies is hard. But letting them getting away with stuff is not acceptable.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

I've suggested it in the past and again this year. Perhaps slowly gaining traction.

Perhaps. But I am not going to wait around for UTSA to make changes before I enjoy playing tennis. Many of us have moved on. It's a shame though.

 

[Vox Rationis]

I've suggested it in the past and again this year. Perhaps slowly gaining traction.

It is with me. I used to be against the idea. It punishes too many innocents along with the sandbaggers, many of which are just being used by an optimistic captain. But I see the benefit. It would stop a lot of the sandbagging. The Houston captain would just utilize a pipeline of self-rate, tank a year to get bumped down, then go to nationals. But almost no other captain is willing to go that far. Take away the means and many of the same people wouldn’t have the motivation to find another way.

 

[lidoazndiabloboi]

My buddy is on the SoCal team. Let’s go SoCal!!

 

[rod99]

The simplest fix (not full but partial fix) would be to NOT allow self-rates to participate in nationals. Policing tanking and what not is very hard.

not just nationals, but any post season play.

 

[TypeRx]

Yeah but sectionals I believe is managed by the sections and their own rules, not necessarily the same criteria for USTA Nationals. So, a lot more beauracracy to get through

 

[schmke]

Yeah but sectionals I believe is managed by the sections and their own rules, not necessarily the same criteria for USTA Nationals. So, a lot more beauracracy to get through

Yes and no.

National publishes rules and regulations that sections must follow, but those national rules have options that sections can choose from. For example there are options for how/when to check strikes and impose DQs in each phase of the season. There are also options for how to handle ESL players who are bumped up. So sections get to decide from the options available, but for a league to advance on to Nationals they still have to apply the core rules and only select one of the available options where they have leeway.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Texas 4-0

 

[schmke]

Texas 4-0

And 18-2 on courts.

Going in to the event, the top-8 averages for all Nationals teams are usually above the top of the level, but it is usually 0.05-0.15 above, e.g. 3.55-3.65 in this case. And apart from Texas that was the case this year too, a group of three at 3.66 then most of the rest between that and the low to mid 3.50s.

But Texas was at 3.73 coming in, well above the competition. So either they put in a bunch of work to improve more than the rest of the teams, or something is going on that is abnormal.

And in their matches so far, their top-8 average is up to 3.76! Not that all their C rated players had to hold back during the year, but when faced with strong competition, their ratings have gone up more, another sign something isn't right. Only one of those 3.66 teams has had their ratings go up and that one was only 0.02 vs 0.03 for Texas.

 

[ATX Tennis]

He’s loading up for next season too. Look at his 2019 3.5 champ teams, then look at the obvious tanking at 4.0 this year to make sure they are C-rated and eligible again for next year. Self rate rules don’t matter at all when you tank matches and get C ratings. I’ve seen many of those players. Being a 4.0/4.5 and winning 3.5 championships is shameful, especially when it’s not an issue of getting lucky with the algorithm but it’s tanking to get an artificially low rating.

 

[silverwyvern4]

Final 4 is set

 

[TennisOTM]

Texas just beat a team playing out of the Utah captain's facility. How ironic would that be if the Utah team filed a complaint? Maybe they have a gentlemanly agreement on no snitching.

It was close - Utah was winning 3-2 after the 1st sets but Texas came back in two of them. Hard to complain when you were nearly equal. Utah missed out on the top 4 despite beating one of the teams that made it (Caribbean).

 

[JordanWinning]

But what point does someone at USTA start feeling that maybe something isn't right with the way they are running this? These guys are obviously tanking and not even trying to hide it anymore.
@JordanWinning can you record some of those matches? I'm curious if looks like the Nationals level 4.0 that's on the other thread

Didn’t get any video today but will pop over to the courts tomorrow to show some of their shenanigans. One of their guys is a teaching pro in their area and hit an baseline over over 100 mph without flinching. They are so far out of level it’s almost comical.

 

[Racquet Scientist]

It was close - Utah was winning 3-2 after the 1st sets but Texas came back in two of them. Hard to complain when you were nearly equal. Utah missed out on the top 4 despite beating one of the teams that made it (Caribbean).

I was referring to complaining due to playing out of the same facility that that 4.0 trifecta captain owns. I have not studied this particular 3.5 Utah team.

It would be easy for me to complain about this Texas team. See the post by @schmke to start this thread for the bullet points I would use. As often occurs in "winning" Nationals, the devil is in the details.

If anyone has information about shenanigans regarding this particular 3.5 Utah team playing out of Sunpro that made them "nearly equal" to Texas in that category, please share. If the captain attended the club seminar and paid attention, perhaps someone can provide a list as @schmke did above. If I worked really hard to improve and had to face a team that has as many documented shenanigans going on as the Texas team, I would want to complain.

 

[schmke]

It was close - Utah was winning 3-2 after the 1st sets but Texas came back in two of them. Hard to complain when you were nearly equal. Utah missed out on the top 4 despite beating one of the teams that made it (Caribbean).

Side effect of unflighted round-robin. Intermountain had a significantly tougher schedule, Caribbean got to play two 0-4 teams and one 1-3 team.

 

[ChaelAZ]

3.5 rec tennis is serious.

 

[lidoazndiabloboi]

Texas wins Nationals. my buddy lost his match in the finals. He said his opponent was like a high level 4.0

Congrats to SoCal for being finalists

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

This is just one more issue with USTA using Nationals to normalize NTRP levels across regions. Does this really prove that Texas is much stronger than other sections, or does it just prove they have the biggest d-bag captain?

And I‘m sorry but who spends a year or two intentionally losing matches just to go to some weekend tournament?

Sadly, both are actually true and not related to each other. But, If you want to go really into tripping out on theories....the strength of TExas players makes people cheat because they realize they aren't going to win at their true level in Texas, Imagine how hard it is to just win Dallas, not easy.

 

[schmke]

Texas wins Nationals. my buddy lost his match in the finals. He said his opponent was like a high level 4.0

Congrats to SoCal for being finalists

High level 4.0 is where most of the roster's ratings (by my calculations) and ability lies, so no surprise an opponent felt that way. Look for them to be back in 2 years.

 

[JordanWinning]

Sadly, both are actually true and not related to each other. But, If you want to go really into tripping out on theories....the strength of TExas players makes people cheat because they realize they aren't going to win at their true level in Texas, Imagine how hard it is to just win Dallas, not easy.

I had a serious conversation with New York and SoCal today about us flying our best players into each others regions and making a legit super team, just to
1) beat Texas
2) see if we could do something egregious enough to make the USTA look at their rules