2023 Nationals Week 4 Simulations

[schmke]

There are eight events at this week's Nationals, 18+ 4.0, 40+ 3.0, 55+ 6.0, and 55+ 8.0 each for both men and women.

I just posted two of the simulations, 40+ 3.0 men and 18+ 4.0 men, and a few observations.

Both have pretty high "shenanigans" scores due to self-rates and players who held higher C ratings in the past. But it seems a bit more even than some prior events with a number of teams scoring very high. Yes, the 4.0 men are led by a Texas team from Houston, but Southern, Southwest, and Hawaii all score very high too. Southern leads the 3.0M with a full 10 players above level in the past, but a number of them aren't eligible as they were an early start team and several on the roster were bumped up at 2022 year-end and thus not eilgible for Nationals.

The big thing for the 3.0 men is that there is a whopping 16% chance of five 4-0 teams. The top-5 teams are well ahead of the others and don't play each other so it is a real possibility.

The 4.0 men on the other hand have most likely records for the top-6 teams of 3-1. But the top-5 teams have at least a 22% chance of going 4-0 so one of them is probably going to do it. Middle States, Texas, Southern, NorCal, and Florida are likely the five teams vying for the four spots.

 

[FuzzyYellowBalls]

Good lord, tanking for 3.0 40+ glory, how sad.

 

[schmke]

I don't see anything to indicate tanking or sandbagging, but I just did the 18+ 4.0W simulation and notice the Texas team has a roster of 10 and 9 are self-rated! Team from Abilene and only played one other team in the regular season, so this could be surprising either way when they have to play a wider variety of opponents.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Interesting to me you have Hawaii as being pretty good at 4.0 men. Never know how it'll go with them.

My predictions from when I looked things over last month: I'm thinking the matches to watch are Middle States vs So Cal, Midw3st vs Florida, and Southern vs Texas with the winners making the semifinals. And then my 4th team in is Nor Cal if they go undefeated, or a really strong 3-1 team if Nor Cal slips up. Mid Atlantic does have one of the easier schedules which could play a factor, but I personally am not betting on them.

One team your ratings don't seem to have high that I think may be surprisingly good is Eastern. They seem to have several really good self-rates and good depth.

 

[schmke]

Interesting to me you have Hawaii as being pretty good at 4.0 men. Never know how it'll go with them.

Yeah, you never know, and they are just at the tail of the contenders and benefit from one of the easier schedules.

 

[ChaelAZ]

Our Surprise 18+ 3.0 finished 4th I think. Have to get out and check out the upcoming matches.

 

[Pinecone]

I've got the following as my predictions. Top 4 being MiddleStates, Norcal, Southern, and Florida.

1	MiddleStates	4/4
2	NorCal	4/4
3	Southern	4/4
4	Florida	3/4
5	SoCal	3/4
6	Midw3st	3/4
7	PacificNorthwest	3/4

Semis: Middle States over Florida, Norcal over Southern

Finals: Middle States over Norcal

 

[schmke]

I've got the following as my predictions. Top 4 being MiddleStates, Norcal, Southern, and Florida.

1	MiddleStates	4/4
2	NorCal	4/4
3	Southern	4/4
4	Florida	3/4
5	SoCal	3/4
6	Midw3st	3/4
7	PacificNorthwest	3/4

Semis: Middle States over Florida, Norcal over Southern

Finals: Middle States over Norcal

I'm giving more of my detailed simulation away here for free, but:

Middle States: 3-1 (but 42% chance of 4-0)
Texas: 3-1 (28% chance of 4-0)
Southern: 3-1 (27% chance of 4-0)
NorCal: 3-1 (24% chance of 4-0)

Florida misses out on advancing on a close tie-breaker, but does have a 23% chance of 4-0.

 

[Vox Rationis]

My predictions from when I looked things over last month: I'm thinking the matches to watch are Middle States vs So Cal, Midw3st vs Florida, and Southern vs Texas with the winners making the semifinals. And then my 4th team in is Nor Cal if they go undefeated, or a really strong 3-1 team if Nor Cal slips up. Mid Atlantic does have one of the easier schedules which could play a factor, but I personally am not betting on them.

One team your ratings don't seem to have high that I think may be surprisingly good is Eastern. They seem to have several really good self-rates and good depth that the ratings may have underrated.

I'll flesh mine out since you guys did. I'm going:

1. Middle States 4-0 with a key 3-2 win over So Cal. They beat the others with no trouble unless Caribbean is surprisingly good.

2. Midw3st 4-0 upsetting Florida 3-2. They have who I suspect could be the strongest hidden ringer at nationals. Didn't play him in singles all year yet he has the most impressive singles track record in the entire field. A bunch of solid results in ITA tournaments the last two years. Plus there are a lot of young low division college players on the team and self-rates or recent self-rates.

3. Southern 4-0 narrowly with a few close calls. I'm torn 50/50 on them and Texas. Eastern and PNW look pretty tough too. I don't know if Southern has the depth to handle their schedule but on paper they look favored to win each match.

4. Nor Cal 4-0. NTRP wise they should go 4-0. However, some of their UTRs are lower than their dynamic NTRPs would have you think. So I originally had a feeling they'd get upset by someone, maybe Eastern. But with the 4.5 Nor Cal team winning nationals despite having similarly unimpressive UTRs I'm going to ignore that and put this team in my top 4.

Just missing out: Florida 3-1, Texas 3-1, So Cal 3-1

 

[Creighton]

Good lord, tanking for 3.0 40+ glory, how sad.

May be my only chance of glory one day.

 

[marshaman]

I'll flesh mine out since you guys did. I'm going:

1. Middle States 4-0 with a key 3-2 win over So Cal. They beat the others with no trouble unless Caribbean is surprisingly good.

2. Midw3st 4-0 upsetting Florida 3-2. They have who I suspect could be the strongest hidden ringer at nationals. Didn't play him in singles all year yet he has the most impressive singles track record in the entire field. A bunch of solid results in ITA tournaments the last two years. Plus there are a lot of young low division college players on the team and self-rates or recent self-rates.

3. Southern 4-0 narrowly with a few close calls. I'm torn 50/50 on them and Texas. Eastern and PNW look pretty tough too. I don't know if Southern has the depth to handle their schedule but on paper they look favored to win each match.

4. Nor Cal 4-0. NTRP wise they should go 4-0. However, some of their UTRs are lower than their dynamic NTRPs would have you think. So I originally had a feeling they'd get upset by someone, maybe Eastern. But with the 4.5 Nor Cal team winning nationals despite having similarly unimpressive UTRs I'm going to ignore that and put this team in my top 4.

Just missing out: Florida 3-1, Texas 3-1, So Cal 3-1

When did the 4.5 NorCal team win nationals?

 

[Vox Rationis]

When did the 4.5 NorCal team win nationals?

Whoops meant to say finishing 3rd. Good catch. They did very well though.

 

[marshaman]

Yeah, NorCal 18+ 4.5s the last two years did well in pool play, but fizzled in the semis.

 

[schmke]

For the 4.0 men, just NorCal has an 8am match (vs Intermountain), but then 9:30 has Southern taking on Texas which will be an early indicator of which of those teams has the best shot at the semis.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Welp Midw3st didn't play 4 of their best players and lost 2-3. We'll see if they play them in the next match.

 

[schmke]

8am matches done.

NorCal beats IM 3-2, with the players involved expected to be 3-2, but there was one upset each way, each in a super tie-break. Close!

In my real-time updated simulation, NorCal and Florida swap, Florida every so slightly more likely to make the top-4 now.

 

[schmke]

Welp Midw3st didn't play 4 of their best players and lost 2-3. We'll see if they play them in the next match.

Hawaii pulled two modest upsets, both in super tie-breaks. Hawaii's ratings island very well could have them a bit under rated. In my simulation, they went from 20% chance of semis to 24% with that result.

 

[jhick]

With all of the statistical analysis going on, you guys should start a fantasy USTA nationals league, LOL!. Find out who's going from each section, each participant drafts players, etc. If nationals are played at the USTA campus in Florida, you could track all of the details (serve %, break %, serve speed, winners, etc.).

 

[J_R_B]

Hawaii pulled two modest upsets, both in super tie-breaks. Hawaii's ratings island very well could have them a bit under rated. In my simulation, they went from 20% chance of semis to 24% with that result.

The team that has dominated Hawaii for the last 15 or so years and played in nationals many, many times was smoked 5-0 in their first league match by this team this year, so you there may in fact be some sort of ratings island effect going on here.

 

[J_R_B]

With all of the statistical analysis going on, you guys should start a fantasy USTA nationals league, LOL!. Find out who's going from each section, each participant drafts players, etc. If nationals are played at the USTA campus in Florida, you could track all of the details (serve %, break %, serve speed, winners, etc.).

Do it like DFS and assign a value (maybe based on the Schmke DNTRP projection or something) and let people build a team under a "salary cap".

 

[schmke]

8am matches done.

NorCal beats IM 3-2, with the players involved expected to be 3-2, but there was one upset each way, each in a super tie-break. Close!

In my real-time updated simulation, NorCal and Florida swap, Florida every so slightly more likely to make the top-4 now.

Florida is through their first 3-2, Florida had to pull one modest upset to get the win as the teams split two courts that were a toss-up

Middle States also through 4-1, NE pulling a tiny upset to get their court.

Texas/Southern apparently still going. I'll wait for this one to finish to update the real-time simulation.

 

[J_R_B]

Florida is through their first 3-2, Florida had to pull one modest upset to get the win as the teams split two courts that were a toss-up

Middle States also through 4-1, NE pulling a tiny upset to get their court.

Texas/Southern apparently still going. I'll wait for this one to finish to update the real-time simulation.

Looks like Middle States' S2 who won easily didn't even come to sectionals. If their team is even stronger than the one that played at sectionals, they definitely should be a contender. They lost 7 courts total at sectionals, but they also lost their "other" singles court (i.e. not the guy who was 5-0 regardless of whether is was S1 or S2) in 4 of the 5 matches. Shoring up that spot was really their only weakness from sectionals.

 

[schmke]

Looks like Middle States' S2 who won easily didn't even come to sectionals. If their team is even stronger than the one that played at sectionals, they definitely should be a contender. They lost 7 courts total at sectionals, but they also lost their "other" singles court (i.e. not the guy who was 5-0 regardless of whether is was S1 or S2) in 4 of the 5 matches. Shoring up that spot was really their only weakness from sectionals.

Yep, one player can make a difference.

And I actually have two different approaches to my simulation. One uses top-10 averages for each team while the other uses played averages by court in the playoffs. The latter should be more accurate, but when someone like this player doesn't play in playoffs but then shows up at Nationals, that is a significant difference.

FWIW, what I posted here is my top-10 average approach so this player is accounted for and that is why MS was at the top (75% chance of semis). My average by court method still had them in the semis, but 3rd (66%)

 

[schmke]

Florida is through their first 3-2, Florida had to pull one modest upset to get the win as the teams split two courts that were a toss-up

Middle States also through 4-1, NE pulling a tiny upset to get their court.

Texas/Southern apparently still going. I'll wait for this one to finish to update the real-time simulation.

Southern beats Texas 4-1, the one court for Texas a minor upset.

Real-time update to the simulation now says:

Southern - 80% chance of semis and 4-0 most likely
Middle States - 68% / 3-1 (4-0 39%)
Florida - 58% / 3-1 (4-0 40%)
NorCal - 51% / 3-1 (4-0 35%)
SoCal - 36% / 2-2 (3-1 38%, 4-0 11%)

That is using the approach I used originally. If I use the played average by court, the order of the top-4 changes slightly, but the same 5 teams, but SoCal most likely record now 3-1 and Mid-Atlantic also most likely at 3-1 but would lose out on tie-breakers in many of the simulations.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Southern beats Texas 4-1, the one court for Texas a minor upset.

Those are not the two singles players I expected Texas to use for that match up. I wonder why they didn’t play the two really good ones from sectionals. One of them played court 2 doubles, the other not at all.

 

[CiscoPC600]

Southern beats Texas 4-1, the one court for Texas a minor upset.

Real-time update to the simulation now says:

Southern - 80% chance of semis and 4-0 most likely
Middle States - 68% / 3-1 (4-0 39%)
Florida - 58% / 3-1 (4-0 40%)
NorCal - 51% / 3-1 (4-0 35%)
SoCal - 36% / 2-2 (3-1 38%, 4-0 11%)

That is using the approach I used originally. If I use the played average by court, the order of the top-4 changes slightly, but the same 5 teams, but SoCal most likely record now 3-1 and Mid-Atlantic also most likely at 3-1 but would lose out on tie-breakers in many of the simulations.

SoCal men’s 4.0 won their 8am 5-0. No dropped sets. Does your simulation take that into account?

Not sure how going 4-0 in total matches would mean they have less chance getting through. Unless I’m reading your post wrong.

 

[schmke]

SoCal men’s 4.0 won their 8am 5-0. No dropped sets. Does your simulation take that into account?

Not sure how going 4-0 in total matches would mean they have less chance getting through. Unless I’m reading your post wrong.

Yep, it reflects the win and the ratings I used updated from that match. It is just that Caribbean wasn't that strong on paper so pretty easy wins on every court were expected.

But SoCal has to play Middle States this afternoon, the winner of that has a great shot at the semis, the loser a bit of an uphill road. And SoCal has to play Hawaii who may be surprisingly good too.

What my numbers were showing is that SoCal has a 36% chance of making the semis (in 36% of my simulations they made it) but their most likely record is 2-2, but they do have a 38% chance of 3-1 and 11% chance of 4-0.

 

[naylor73]

Those are not the two singles players I expected Texas to use for that match up. I wonder why they didn’t play the two really good ones from sectionals. One of them played court 2 doubles, the other not at all.

I'm pretty sure one of the guys is like 65 and the other is close to 60. Who knows what they're thinking.

 

[schmke]

Those are not the two singles players I expected Texas to use for that match up. I wonder why they didn’t play the two really good ones from sectionals. One of them played court 2 doubles, the other not at all.

That was definitely not the strongest line-up on paper Texas could field. They didn't play players I have rated 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8. Didn't make the trip? Bad line-up decision? Perhaps we'll see after the second match.

 

[Vox Rationis]

I'm pretty sure one of the guys is like 65 and the other is close to 60. Who knows what they're thinking.

Limited to one match per day then maybe? Big win for Southern.

 

[schmke]

That was definitely not the strongest line-up on paper Texas could field. They didn't play players I have rated 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8. Didn't make the trip? Bad line-up decision? Perhaps we'll see after the second match.

Note that the highest rated player on the roster is now a 4.5D and wasn't included in my analysis or listing of players.

But I hadn't taken a look at the D and why. Interestingly the player had a 4.0C from 2022 year-end so you'd think he was safe. But then it gets more fun.

He'd been a 5.0C at the end of 2015 and hadn't played since then so presumably he would have been required to self-rate as a 5.0 and/or then appeal that down perhaps to a 4.5. I'm guessing an appeal down to 4.0 wouldn't have been granted but you never know ...

However, whether it was deliberate or innocent I have no clue, it appears he created a new USTA account and self-rated as a 4.0 last year, then proceeded to have some good results in the Houston league, would potentially have been a year-end 4.5 at that point, but then played in the famous NoHo league and lost 8-0, 8-4, 8-2, 8-2 and got a 4.0C. I'm guessing that someone figured out it was a new profile, probably at/after the 40 & Over Sectionals he played at, and his profiles got merged and he was DQ'd and promoted to the 4.5D he is at now.

 

[naylor73]

Limited to one match per day then maybe? Big win for Southern.

I'm assuming they're either managing or don't have the guys there. I would have definitely put O.S.B. in singles and not 2 old guys in 18+ Nationals vs the toughest team. Granted M.R. is a former D1 player but he's still 65 years old.

 

[naylor73]

Note that the highest rated player on the roster is now a 4.5D and wasn't included in my analysis or listing of players.

But I hadn't taken a look at the D and why. Interestingly the player had a 4.0C from 2022 year-end so you'd think he was safe. But then it gets more fun.

He'd been a 5.0C at the end of 2015 and hadn't played since then so presumably he would have been required to self-rate as a 5.0 and/or then appeal that down perhaps to a 4.5. I'm guessing an appeal down to 4.0 wouldn't have been granted but you never know ...

However, whether it was deliberate or innocent I have no clue, it appears he created a new USTA account and self-rated as a 4.0 last year, then proceeded to have some good results in the Houston league, would potentially have been a year-end 4.5 at that point, but then played in the famous NoHo league and lost 8-0, 8-4, 8-2, 8-2 and got a 4.0C. I'm guessing that someone figured out it was a new profile, probably at/after the 40 & Over Sectionals he played at, and his profiles got merged and he was DQ'd and promoted to the 4.5D he is at now.

They should have taken his matches away IMO. We figured out it was a new profile at sectionals. We also figured out their system at sectionals and how they've got a revolving door of nationals quality players year in year out.

 

[schmke]

I'm assuming they're either managing or don't have the guys there. I would have definitely put O.S.B. in singles and not 2 old guys in 18+ Nationals vs the toughest team. Granted M.R. is a former D1 player but he's still 65 years old.

Both are solid 4.0s, quite possibly going to 4.5 at year-end, and one of them has been a 4.5 before, but their opponents, ratings wise at least, were significantly higher than them.

Which begs the question, how does Southern have two guys so high?

One is self-rated, had been a 4.5 before (2014) and self-rated in 2021 as a 4.5, but apparently got it appealed down to 4.0, then has won virtually every match in straights but avoided a DQ (probably barely).

The other was a self-rate last year, went 2-1 so not obviously tanked, and got a 4.0C, and has a very good record, but has lost several matches and lost sets in matches he won.

 

[Vox Rationis]

They should have taken his matches away IMO. We figured out it was a new profile at sectionals. We also figured out their system at sectionals and how they've got a revolving door of nationals quality players year in year out.

At least someone over there is doing something.

 

[schmke]

At least someone over there is doing something.

I think it is pretty hard to ignore a duplicate account where the new one self-rated two levels below the old one.

 

[naylor73]

Duplicate account. Both were under a city of <20,000 people. It was too easy

 

[schmke]

It appears Texas didn't bring their full team. Only one of the aforementioned players missing from line-up one was in the second line-up and they lost again, 3-2.

 

[schmke]

Middle States beats SoCal 3-2. 1S goes to a super and goes SoCal's way, 2D goes to a super and goes Middle States' way.

PNW and MidishWest still playing a 3:30 match, and Florida/New England probably just starting now. And Mid-Atlantic/Southwest have a 7pm match.

Both of my simulation models have Southern, Middle States, Florida, and NorCal most likely to advance and all could be with 4-0 records. Five undefeated has an 8% chance which is way up from the start of the event. If someone spoils that top-4 it is probably Mid-Atlantic, but SoCal still has a shot, and Hawaii is surprising.

 

[Vox Rationis]

Concerning retirement for Southern though. They need that singles player to be healthy if they want a chance to win. Potential heat issues?

 

[schmke]

The Texas team's captain also has a team at 55+ 8.0 and three of the 18+ top players are playing 55+ instead which explains why the 18+ team is under-achieving.

 

[NumbersGuy]

The Texas team's captain also has a team at 55+ 8.0 and three of the 18+ top players are playing 55+ instead which explains why the 18+ team is under-achieving.

‘Bout time you caught that!

 

[schmke]

NorCal loses 5-0 to Eastern! Didn't see that coming.

 

[CiscoPC600]

SoCal Beats Hawaii 3-2.

2-1 overall.

 

[schmke]

As of right now, looks like the last spot will come down to Eastern, SoCal, or Mid-Atlantic. NorCal is out of it with their 5-0 loss.

Eastern has the inside shot but has to play Mid-Atlantic, but if MA wins, SoCal has a shot to tie them. Southwest has a shot on paper but has to play Middle States.

 

[schmke]

The 40 & Over 3-0 men have five 3-0 teams and none play each other in their last match ...

 

[schmke]

The 40 & Over 3-0 men have five 3-0 teams and none play each other in their last match ...

Middle States - 3-0 / 11-1 plays 1-2 New England at 4:30
Southern - 3-0 / 11-1 plays 1-2 Southwest at 1:00
NorCal - 3-0 / 10-2 plays 0-3 Hawaii at 3:00
PNW - 3-0 / 9-3 plays 1-2 Eastern at 1:00
Texas - 3-0 / 9-3 plays 1-2 Middlewest at 3:00

 

[Klitz]

The Texas team's captain also has a team at 55+ 8.0 and three of the 18+ top players are playing 55+ instead which explains why the 18+ team is under-achieving.

Why would USTA put two 4.0 men's nationals events on the same weekend?

 

[Elpasomike]

As of right now, looks like the last spot will come down to Eastern, SoCal, or Mid-Atlantic. NorCal is out of it with their 5-0 loss.

Eastern has the inside shot but has to play Mid-Atlantic, but if MA wins, SoCal has a shot to tie them. Southwest has a shot on paper but has to play Middle States.

Southwest plays Texas

 

[Elpasomike]

Why would USTA put two 4.0 men's nationals events on the same weekend?

Who woulda thought they win 18's with 55+ guys