schmke
Legend
There are eight events at this week's Nationals, 18+ 4.0, 40+ 3.0, 55+ 6.0, and 55+ 8.0 each for both men and women.
I just posted two of the simulations, 40+ 3.0 men and 18+ 4.0 men, and a few observations.
Both have pretty high "shenanigans" scores due to self-rates and players who held higher C ratings in the past. But it seems a bit more even than some prior events with a number of teams scoring very high. Yes, the 4.0 men are led by a Texas team from Houston, but Southern, Southwest, and Hawaii all score very high too. Southern leads the 3.0M with a full 10 players above level in the past, but a number of them aren't eligible as they were an early start team and several on the roster were bumped up at 2022 year-end and thus not eilgible for Nationals.
The big thing for the 3.0 men is that there is a whopping 16% chance of five 4-0 teams. The top-5 teams are well ahead of the others and don't play each other so it is a real possibility.
The 4.0 men on the other hand have most likely records for the top-6 teams of 3-1. But the top-5 teams have at least a 22% chance of going 4-0 so one of them is probably going to do it. Middle States, Texas, Southern, NorCal, and Florida are likely the five teams vying for the four spots.
I just posted two of the simulations, 40+ 3.0 men and 18+ 4.0 men, and a few observations.
Both have pretty high "shenanigans" scores due to self-rates and players who held higher C ratings in the past. But it seems a bit more even than some prior events with a number of teams scoring very high. Yes, the 4.0 men are led by a Texas team from Houston, but Southern, Southwest, and Hawaii all score very high too. Southern leads the 3.0M with a full 10 players above level in the past, but a number of them aren't eligible as they were an early start team and several on the roster were bumped up at 2022 year-end and thus not eilgible for Nationals.
The big thing for the 3.0 men is that there is a whopping 16% chance of five 4-0 teams. The top-5 teams are well ahead of the others and don't play each other so it is a real possibility.
The 4.0 men on the other hand have most likely records for the top-6 teams of 3-1. But the top-5 teams have at least a 22% chance of going 4-0 so one of them is probably going to do it. Middle States, Texas, Southern, NorCal, and Florida are likely the five teams vying for the four spots.