All-Time Would Be Slam Finals? (Men)

[BGod]

For this exercise I'm only looking at semifinal matches at Slams that went 4 or 5 sets, so I'm not hypothetically considering reversals of straight set victories as they were definitive. I also didn't look at quarters as that's asking 2 things to go differently and I tried to spread out time periods and players as hypothetical Nadal and Federer matchups were done in another thread.

2011 US Open Nadal vs. Federer
Federer had a rather underrated 2011 season. He only lost to Djokovic at AO & USO, Nadal at the French and a 2-0 choke against Tsonga at Wimbledon. He would go on to win the WTF. Of course his 2011 US Open is the concentration here. Nadal tore the tour open in 2010 and despite Federer having double match point in that semifinal against Novak, it was on Novak's serve and Federer was playing worse. His 2011 form was on fire, dropping a single set to Cilic he went up 2-0 and held double match point on his serve. We all know what happened and Novak went on to beat Nadal rather easily. Obviously the fact Nadal and Federer have yet to meet at the US Open elevates this hypothetical matchup to stratospheric heights indeed.

2006 Australian Nalbandian vs. Federer
Okay, maybe this is a stretch but remember Nalbandian was one of the few who actually matched up well against Federer, beating him at the 03 USO and in close proximity to this would be clash at the 2005 WTF spoiling Fed's quest to best McEnroe's mark. David was up 2-0 against Baghdatis and lost by a break in the 4th and 5th sets. It really is too bad as this match-up at worst would have had juicier story-lines but could have seen an upset as Fed had dropped sets to Davydenko, Kiefer and needed 5 sets against Tommy Haas. Certainly could have been an all-time affair.

1995 US Open Becker vs. Sampras
Like Fed/Nadal, Becker and Sampras never met at the US Open despite two close brushes in 1990 and 1995, both times Becker losing to Agassi in 4. It's hard to choose between the two, Becker seemingly with an advantage in 95 and Sampras with an advantage in 95 however I look at Becker's resurgence in 95-96 and think the match would have been good. It was in 96 the two had 5 set wars on carpet winning one each and Becker had that run in Australia to start the year. He also played Andre much closer in 95 than 90 and I'm sure wanted revenge for the Wimbledon Final. Boris was in good form and arguably had a tougher road, beating Andre would have meant he was at least up to a fight.

1993 Wimbledon Edberg vs. Sampras
If you thought somebody could get into Sampras' head it was Edberg. They only met in 2 Slam matches and Edberg won both, at the US Open Final in 92 and the 93 Australian. Their total head to head was 8-6 in favour of Sampras but the last 3 meetings which Pete won have to be taken with a grain of salt and still Edberg pushed in two tight 3 set affairs (Bo3). Otherwise Edberg lead 5-3 at the onset and clearly won their two Slam meetings. He was two years removed from a champion on grass but lost a tight 5 setter to Ivanisevic in 92 (who went on to beat Sampras) and a VERY tight 4 setter to Stich in 91 who went on to win it all (6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 6-7). He had the mental edge against Sampras at this point and Pistol Pete had not yet tasted Wimbledon glory.

1991 Australian Becker vs. Edberg
Yes, yes, they played eachother 35 times but rarely at Slams and never at either Flushing Meadows or Melbourne. In the Aussie, Becker went on an interesting run including a 5 set thriller against Camporese in the 3rd culminating in him dismantling Lendl in the Final. Edberg on the other hand beat pre-ascension Courier in 5 sets in the 4th Round and had the lead against Lendl before losing the last 2 sets. Edberg had won their only French meeting in 5 sets in 89 and had the 2-1 Wimbledons but in Australia in 1991 I think the edge would have been with Becker. It may have served as the decider with Becker having a 25-10 head to head but 1-3 in Slams. Regardless it would have been a better show than Becker beating Lendl again.

1990 US Open McEnroe vs. Agassi
Old lion against young lion. These legends only met 4 times, splitting the series albeit Mac's 89 WCT win came via retirement after Andre won the opening set. Their only Slam match was the 1992 Wimbledon semi which Agassi won with ease on route to his maiden title. Obviously it's a bit of a pipe dream to imagine Mac beating Sampras in hindsight but he did only lose the 2nd set 4-6 before winning the 3rd so it's not an impossibility. Agassi had lost back to back semifinals to Lendl and was somewhat nervous in final. Even if this was a foregone conclusion it could have changed Agassi's career dramatically but I suspect given their styles this may have been a great match.

 

[IowaGuy]

1986 Lendl vs. Becker US Open.

Becker had just straight-setted the #1 seed Lendl at the Wimbledon final. USO could have been Lendl's revenge on his better surface.

Instead, Becker was upset in the SF by Mecir in 5 sets, who then got trounced by Lendl in straights only winning 6 games total over 3 sets...

 

[helterskelter]

Rather than Becker v Sampras at US Open 95, which Sampras would likely have won, I am interested in whether Agassi could have pushed him at Wimbledon had he not let slip a 6-2 4-1 with two breaks lead v Becker in the semis. I think he’d have had a shot.

 

[helterskelter]

Edberg slight favorite v Becker in a 91 AO matchup, as courts suited him better and he was on better form. By the way, you know he led Lendl 46 75 63 54 and had two match points while serving for the match? Verged on a fairly straightforward win but he let it slip. One MP was a double fault.

I’d favor Federer over Nadal at US Open 2011.

But in both cases, the question is whether the better player (on form and the surface) could overcome a losing head to head.

 

[BGod]

Didn't know that about Edberg MPs. I'd favor Becker as Edberg won AO on grass mostly.

 

[Deleted member 763024]

This is a great hypothetical discussion. Here’s what I think:


















Fedr

 

[Fabresque]

How about 2011 RG Final between Nadal and Djokovic? Would’ve been epic if Fed didn’t take out Nole in the SF.

 

[abmk]

Didn't know that about Edberg MPs. I'd favor Becker as Edberg won AO on grass mostly.

Edberg lost in 5 to eventual winner Wilander in AO 88 SF.
Edberg was in terrific form vs Cash in AO 89 4R, but had to give walkover to Muster in 89 QF due to injury.
Even worse was that he was in perfect form in AO 90 SF demolishing Wilander (who had beaten Becker convincingly), but had an injury towards the very end that affected him and cost him in the final (forcing him to retire). else would've been favored over Lendl in the final.
91 you already saw.
Edberg made 2 more finals at the AO - 92, 93 on rebound ace.
then semi in 94

Edberg went SF, QF (walkover), final, SF, F, F, SF on rebound ace from 88-94
Terribly unlucky not to win even once.
Becker barely made it out vs Camporese in AO 91.91 and 96 were the only 2 times he got to the semi and he won both times there. (with getting Chang in the final in 96).

Lets just say Becker was clearly luckier than Edberg in comparision.
Edberg was far more consistent on RA at the AO. not even convinced Becker had the higher peak at the AO. For a single run, I'd go with Edberg AO 1990. For a single match, Edberg vs Wilander in AO 90 semi.

 

[KG1965]

Wimbledon 1983: McEnroe-Connors
US Open 1979: McEnroe-Borg
AO
1976: Connors-Borg
1977: Connors-Borg
1977 bis: Connors-Borg
1978: Connors-Borg
1979: McEnroe-Borg
1980: McEnroe-Borg
1981: McEnroe-Connors
1982: Connors-McEnroe

 

[Sport]

Nadal-Federer USO 2010.

 

[OldschoolKIaus]

Easy: AO06.
Two of the most talented guys tennis has seen in a long time.
Not some pusher final, but real nice shot making and overall great tennis.
Fedr 60/40

But then again it was Dave with one of his classic chokes in SF ^^

 

[mike danny]

I will admit that Fed was fortunate to win AO 2006. I think if it were Nalbandian in the final instead of Baghdatis, then Fed would still be searching for major number 20.

If only David won that semi, people would complain less about Fedr's competition and the Baghdatis meme would not exist.

 

[RogerFederer007]

I will admit that Fed was fortunate to win AO 2006. I think if it were Nalbandian in the final instead of Baghdatis, then Fed would still be searching for major number 20.

If only David won that semi, people would complain less about Fedr's competition and the Baghdatis meme would not exist.

AO 2006 was actually Nalbandian best chance to win a GS. Fed was still semi-injured and David just defeated him 2 months ago. How David managed to lose to baghdatis in the SF is still baffle me.

 

[Deleted member 763024]

I will admit that Fed was fortunate to win AO 2006. I think if it were Nalbandian in the final instead of Baghdatis, then Fed would still be searching for major number 20.

If only David won that semi, people would complain less about Fedr's competition and the Baghdatis meme would not exist.

Love it how certainty accompanies any discussion of hypotheticals on this forum.

If this then that, else this. You guys are like programmers except with imaginary situations.

 

[mike danny]

AO 2006 was actually Nalbandian best chance to win a GS. Fed was still semi-injured and David just defeated him 2 months ago. How David managed to lose to baghdatis in the SF is still baffle me.

USO 2003 too, but he choked against Roddick.

Assuming Nalbandian still loses in the semi though, I would have given Davydenko a great chance ro win AO 2006 had it not been for Roger.

 

[mike danny]

Love it how certainty accompanies any discussion of hypotheticals on this forum.

If this then that, else this. You guys are like programmers except with imaginary situations.

I have studied programming at college, so maybe my mind is now set that way

 

[Deleted member 763024]

I have studied programming at college, so maybe my mind is now set that way

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

For this exercise I'm only looking at semifinal matches at Slams that went 4 or 5 sets, so I'm not hypothetically considering reversals of straight set victories as they were definitive. I also didn't look at quarters as that's asking 2 things to go differently and I tried to spread out time periods and players as hypothetical Nadal and Federer matchups were done in another thread.

2011 US Open Nadal vs. Federer
Federer had a rather underrated 2011 season. He only lost to Djokovic at AO & USO, Nadal at the French and a 2-0 choke against Tsonga at Wimbledon. He would go on to win the WTF. Of course his 2011 US Open is the concentration here. Nadal tore the tour open in 2010 and despite Federer having double match point in that semifinal against Novak, it was on Novak's serve and Federer was playing worse. His 2011 form was on fire, dropping a single set to Cilic he went up 2-0 and held double match point on his serve. We all know what happened and Novak went on to beat Nadal rather easily. Obviously the fact Nadal and Federer have yet to meet at the US Open elevates this hypothetical matchup to stratospheric heights indeed.

1991 Australian Becker vs. Edberg
Yes, yes, they played eachother 35 times but rarely at Slams and never at either Flushing Meadows or Melbourne. In the Aussie, Becker went on an interesting run including a 5 set thriller against Camporese in the 3rd culminating in him dismantling Lendl in the Final. Edberg on the other hand beat pre-ascension Courier in 5 sets in the 4th Round and had the lead against Lendl before losing the last 2 sets. Edberg had won their only French meeting in 5 sets in 89 and had the 2-1 Wimbledons but in Australia in 1991 I think the edge would have been with Becker. It may have served as the decider with Becker having a 25-10 head to head but 1-3 in Slams. Regardless it would have been a better show than Becker beating Lendl again.

Those two because the hypothetical finals were a point away. Not only did Federer have double MP on serve, Edberg also had two (separate) MPs on serve and double-faulted on the second one.

2006 Australian Nalbandian vs. Federer
Okay, maybe this is a stretch but remember Nalbandian was one of the few who actually matched up well against Federer, beating him at the 03 USO and in close proximity to this would be clash at the 2005 WTF spoiling Fed's quest to best McEnroe's mark. David was up 2-0 against Baghdatis and lost by a break in the 4th and 5th sets. It really is too bad as this match-up at worst would have had juicier story-lines but could have seen an upset as Fed had dropped sets to Davydenko, Kiefer and needed 5 sets against Tommy Haas. Certainly could have been an all-time affair.

Then this because Federer could have actually lost. Should have lost tbh, ugly win all things considered.

1993 Wimbledon Edberg vs. Sampras
If you thought somebody could get into Sampras' head it was Edberg. They only met in 2 Slam matches and Edberg won both, at the US Open Final in 92 and the 93 Australian. Their total head to head was 8-6 in favour of Sampras but the last 3 meetings which Pete won have to be taken with a grain of salt and still Edberg pushed in two tight 3 set affairs (Bo3). Otherwise Edberg lead 5-3 at the onset and clearly won their two Slam meetings. He was two years removed from a champion on grass but lost a tight 5 setter to Ivanisevic in 92 (who went on to beat Sampras) and a VERY tight 4 setter to Stich in 91 who went on to win it all (6-4, 6-7, 6-7, 6-7). He had the mental edge against Sampras at this point and Pistol Pete had not yet tasted Wimbledon glory.

This follows, as Edberg was visibly declining by then via 2nd serve (Courier destroyed it in the semis), but he did have the mental advantage over young Sampras so it could be interesting.

1995 US Open Becker vs. Sampras
Like Fed/Nadal, Becker and Sampras never met at the US Open despite two close brushes in 1990 and 1995, both times Becker losing to Agassi in 4. It's hard to choose between the two, Becker seemingly with an advantage in 95 and Sampras with an advantage in 95 however I look at Becker's resurgence in 95-96 and think the match would have been good. It was in 96 the two had 5 set wars on carpet winning one each and Becker had that run in Australia to start the year. He also played Andre much closer in 95 than 90 and I'm sure wanted revenge for the Wimbledon Final. Boris was in good form and arguably had a tougher road, beating Andre would have meant he was at least up to a fight.


1990 US Open McEnroe vs. Agassi
Old lion against young lion. These legends only met 4 times, splitting the series albeit Mac's 89 WCT win came via retirement after Andre won the opening set. Their only Slam match was the 1992 Wimbledon semi which Agassi won with ease on route to his maiden title. Obviously it's a bit of a pipe dream to imagine Mac beating Sampras in hindsight but he did only lose the 2nd set 4-6 before winning the 3rd so it's not an impossibility. Agassi had lost back to back semifinals to Lendl and was somewhat nervous in final. Even if this was a foregone conclusion it could have changed Agassi's career dramatically but I suspect given their styles this may have been a great match.

Certainly not this. Sampras would've owned Becker as he did at Wimbledon and nervous Agassi would've lost in ugly fashion anyway, I think.

 

[AnOctorokForDinner]

USO 2003 too, but he choked against Roddick.

Had more to do with Roddick pulling himself together, though Nalbandian played a crap fourth set but Rod was too good in the decider imo.

Assuming Nalbandian still loses in the semi though, I would have given Davydenko a great chance ro win AO 2006 had it not been for Roger.

For himself just as much, that 3rd set TB was nuts (that said, he forced some long rallies before coming up with UEs at least, current fed would've lost handily lol).

 

[Poisoned Slice]

Henman vs Rafter at Wimbledon 2001. Yeah, yeah, Ivanisevic had his moment. That was cool and all.

But what about all the little Henmaniacs up on the hill, Jack dude? I think about all the billions and billions of Henmaniacs watching on their TV, brother. The chance was there, man. No Sampras, no Hewitt. Taking nothing away from Rafter, dude. That man could play, man. But this finally had that golden opportunity feeling about it. The stinky rain got in the way of true destiny, Jack.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

I will admit that Fed was fortunate to win AO 2006. I think if it were Nalbandian in the final instead of Baghdatis, then Fed would still be searching for major number 20.

If only David won that semi, people would complain less about Fedr's competition and the Baghdatis meme would not exist.

Meh, Nalbandian barely beat a worse Fed at the YEC.

 

[abmk]

I will admit that Fed was fortunate to win AO 2006. I think if it were Nalbandian in the final instead of Baghdatis, then Fed would still be searching for major number 20.

If only David won that semi, people would complain less about Fedr's competition and the Baghdatis meme would not exist.

yeah, that's nowhere near the case.
Nalby would have a decent shot vs Fed in the final, but hardly the fav or a lock.

Fed was clearly worse in YEC 05 final and Nalby barely beat him there.

 

[helterskelter]

Edberg lost in 5 to eventual winner Wilander in AO 88 SF.
Edberg was in terrific form vs Cash in AO 89 4R, but had to give walkover to Muster in 89 QF due to injury.
Even worse was that he was in perfect form in AO 90 SF demolishing Wilander (who had beaten Becker convincingly), but had an injury towards the very end that affected him and cost him in the final (forcing him to retire). else would've been favored over Lendl in the final.
91 you already saw.
Edberg made 2 more finals at the AO - 92, 93 on rebound ace.
then semi in 94

Edberg went SF, QF (walkover), final, SF, F, F, SF on rebound ace from 88-94
Terribly unlucky not to win even once.
Becker barely made it out vs Camporese in AO 91.91 and 96 were the only 2 times he got to the semi and he won both times there. (with getting Chang in the final in 96).

Lets just say Becker was clearly luckier than Edberg in comparision.
Edberg was far more consistent on RA at the AO. not even convinced Becker had the higher peak at the AO. For a single run, I'd go with Edberg AO 1990. For a single match, Edberg vs Wilander in AO 90 semi.

Great post. I don’t see any Becker matches in Australia that come close to Edberg’s 89 round 4 v Cash or 90 SF v Wilander or even 93 SF v Sampras while badly injured again. What was becker’s best match in Melbourne Park? QF v kafelnikov in 96?

 

[Cabeza del Demonio]

Becker vs Sampras at the US Open would have been amazing! Boris Becker was quite underrated during the second half of his career; people only remember his prodigious success in the 80's.

 

[Enceladus]

Henman vs Rafter at Wimbledon 2001. Yeah, yeah, Ivanisevic had his moment. That was cool and all.

But what about all the little Henmaniacs up on the hill, Jack dude? I think about all the billions and billions of Henmaniacs watching on their TV, brother. The chance was there, man. No Sampras, no Hewitt. Taking nothing away from Rafter, dude. That man could play, man. But this finally had that golden opportunity feeling about it. The stinky rain got in the way of true destiny, Jack.

Concerning Wimbledon 2001, there is also a rematch version of the 1992 final: Ivanisevic-Agassi. Andre in the SF against Pat served for the victory in the match. If Andre had advanced, would Goran succeed in revenge? Or would Andre gained the second Wimbledon title?

 

[abmk]

Great post. I don’t see any Becker matches in Australia that come close to Edberg’s 89 round 4 v Cash or 90 SF v Wilander or even 93 SF v Sampras while badly injured again. What was becker’s best match in Melbourne Park? QF v kafelnikov in 96?

Yeah, QF vs Kafelnikov in AO 96.

 

[mike danny]

Meh, Nalbandian barely beat a worse Fed at the YEC.

I don't know if he was much worse. Around the same level IMO. Against the true tough opponents at AO 2006, Haas and Davydenko, Fed struggled.

 

[mike danny]

yeah, that's nowhere near the case.
Nalby would have a decent shot vs Fed in the final, but hardly the fav or a lock.

Fed was clearly worse in YEC 05 final and Nalby barely beat him there.

I'm not sure if he was much worse.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

I don't know if he was much worse. Around the same level IMO. Against the true tough opponents at AO 2006, Haas and Davydenko, Fed struggled.

Had more time heal his injury at least. Went to sleep in the Haas match.

 

[abmk]

I'm not sure if he was much worse.

16 out of 19 games lost from start of 3rd set to 0-4 down in the 5th set. That's terrible level in that stretch (thanks to ankle issue getting much worse)

 

[Enceladus]

Very interesting would be the hypothetical final AO 1996 Becker vs. Agassi. Agassi though lost to Chang in three sets, but Andre in his autobiography Open said, that deliberately lost the match because he didn't want to play against Becker. If Agassi won the match against Chang, the final with Becker would be an open matter.

 

[BGod]

16 out of 19 games lost from start of 3rd set to 0-4 down in the 5th set. That's terrible level in that stretch (thanks to ankle issue getting much worse)

And yet at 0-4, 0-30 down double break Federer decides he no longer has any ankle issue and proceeds to break and come back to tie it at 4-4 then lose a chance up 6-5, 30-0 and lost 3-7 in the tiebreak. Suuuuuuure. Has nothing to do with Fed scraping by that 2nd set tiebreak 13-11 and Nalbandian getting in his zone.

 

[BGod]

I voted 2006 AO btw, I think considering the WTF result and having split 2-2 Slam meetings prior to this would have made for an interesting match.

 

[abmk]

And yet at 0-4, 0-30 down double break Federer decides he no longer has any ankle issue and proceeds to break and come back to tie it at 4-4 then lose a chance up 6-5, 30-0 and lost 3-7 in the tiebreak. Suuuuuuure. Has nothing to do with Fed scraping by that 2nd set tiebreak 13-11 and Nalbandian getting in his zone.

Federer gave it a last ditch effort and Nalbandian got nervous as he got that close.

 

[helterskelter]

Yeah, QF vs Kafelnikov in AO 96.

Yeah. And that isn't that high a standard. Almost 23 years on but I remember clearly Frew McMillan being very disappointed with Kafelnikov's level in that match and calling him a wasted talent. (My grandmother died that week and so much of that tournament is seared into my memory more than it would otherwise be).