Bodo posted the question: Who will finish No. 2 in 2015

[uscwang]

Assuming everybody (including Novak) stays healthy of course.
I think it will be between Murray and Wawrinka. Stan has clearly improved his consistency this year. Yet, Andy is likely due for some big wins, ATP 1000 for sure, even WTF or USO. He has shown a lot of positives since getting married.
Fed may end up not playing many tournaments, hurting his chance.
Nadal is still in the race, yet fall is in general not his time.
And then, will marriage bring good luck on court for Berdych?
There is still a lot of tennis remaining this year. If I have to place my bet now, I'll go for Murray.

(BTW, to whoever chose the "color" for the colorbars for the poll, great camouflage.)

 

[Russeljones]

Murray>Wawrinka>Federer. I hope Murray gets as close as he can so he can challenge for # 1 next year.

 

[tennisaddict]

Depends on how motivated Federer is.

 

[mattosgrant]

I dont think Federer will for some reason.

As points are now Fed and Stan are about tied, and both over 1000 back of Murray. It should be Murray. I can see him slumping for some reason and Stan getting it, then again Stan's best part of the year is supposed to be already past, so he really shouldnt make that up on Murray either.

It really should be Murray.

 

[Carsomyr]

I think Fed will drop to #4, maybe even #5 by season's end.

 

[mattosgrant]

I think it will be:

2. Murray
3. Wawrinka
4. Fed
5. Nadal

 

[tennis_pro]

Top 10 at the end of the season:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Wawrinka
5. Nadal
6. Nishikori
7. Berdych
8. Raonic
9. Ferrer
10. Gasquet

Althought a lot can change from 8-10, I wouldn't even be surprised if Thiem finished in the top 10.

 

[spirit95]

Murray. He's leading Stan by a long, long way in the Race.

Who will finish #3 is a more interesting question imo.

 

[spirit95]

Top 10 at the end of the season:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Wawrinka
5. Nadal
6. Nishikori
7. Berdych
8. Raonic
9. Ferrer
10. Gasquet

Althought a lot can change from 8-10, I wouldn't even be surprised if Thiem finished in the top 10.

Damn, I just checked and Thiem is 15 in the Race. Did not anticipate that.

 

[Chanwan]

Murray. He's leading Stan by a long, long way in the Race.

Who will finish #3 is a more interesting question imo.

Murray's gotta be a pretty heavy favorite given his day-in and day-out consistency and his lead in the rankings and that he generally performs well during the upcoming part of the season.
However, a Stanimal win at the US could change a lot of things.

Murray >>>> Stan >> Fed >>>> anyone else seems about right.

 

[Djokovic2011]

Top 10 at the end of the season:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Wawrinka
5. Nadal
6. Nishikori
7. Berdych
8. Raonic
9. Ferrer
10. Gasquet

Althought a lot can change from 8-10, I wouldn't even be surprised if Thiem finished in the top 10.

That would be wonderful to see. I'm behind Dominic all the way!

 

[Chanwan]

Top 10 at the end of the season:

1. Djokovic
2. Murray
3. Federer
4. Wawrinka
5. Nadal
6. Nishikori
7. Berdych
8. Raonic
9. Ferrer
10. Gasquet

Althought a lot can change from 8-10, I wouldn't even be surprised if Thiem finished in the top 10.

It really is the big 8 in the race, but you see Raonic climbing 1200 points higher than Ferrer for the remainder of the season?
http://live-tennis.eu/race

 

[tennis_pro]

It really is the big 8 in the race, but you see Raonic climbing 1200 points higher than Ferrer for the remainder of the season?
http://live-tennis.eu/race

I think Ferrer's season is done and there are still many tournaments for Raonic (if he's fit after the injury) to get ahead of David in the race.

 

[cluckcluck]

If my calculations are correct, Fed has 4,820 points to defend for the rest of the year. He's skipping Rogers Cup, where he picked up 600 points last year, so that would put him at 9,065 points if he matches last years performance. Still quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field.

 

[billboard]

Fred is nowhere near stan's level. ESPN is devastated.

 

[Chanwan]

If my calculations are correct, Fed has 4,820 points to defend for the rest of the year. He's skipping Rogers Cup, where he picked up 600 points last year, so that would put him at 9,065 points if he matches last years performance. Still quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field.

you only need to look at the race (and factor in the current rankings for the seeds): http://live-tennis.eu/race

@tennis_pro - Ferrer's season is done? I haven't been paying much attention over the summer, but is he injured? Raonic can of course pick of heaps of points both in Canada, Cinci and the US - all tournaments where he should do fairly well.

 

[tennis_pro]

@tennis_pro - Ferrer's season is done? I haven't been paying much attention over the summer, but is he injured? Raonic can of course pick of heaps of points both in Canada, Cinci and the US - all tournaments where he should do fairly well.

Well, he hasn't played since the FO (late May), missed Queen's/Wimbledon and has now withdrawn from Canada. Even if he comes back he's gonna need some time to adjust.

 

[cluckcluck]

you only need to look at the race (and factor in the current rankings for the seeds): http://live-tennis.eu/race

@tennis_pro - Ferrer's season is done? I haven't been paying much attention over the summer, but is he injured? Raonic can of course pick of heaps of points both in Canada, Cinci and the US - all tournaments where he should do fairly well.

But OP asked about finishing in 2015 not the race. Different points.

 

[Chanwan]

But OP asked about finishing in 2015 not the race. Different points.

Nope. It's a common mistake, but the race is all that's relevant here. At the end of the year, the race will equal the rankings. Right now, the rankings are confusing the 2015 picture as Fed is still 2nd in the rankings, whereas Murray is a clear 2nd in the race.

The only thing you need the rankings for in terms of predicting the YE no. 2 is if you want to factor in the seeding in your guess. I.e. Fed being seeded 2nd at Cinci and the US could potentially help him vs. Andy and Wawa as one of latter two is bound to get Nole in a semi.

Well, he hasn't played since the FO (late May), missed Queen's/Wimbledon and has now withdrawn from Canada. Even if he comes back he's gonna need some time to adjust.

Hmm, had forgotten about that. I was under the impression he lost early at Wimbledon...

 

[tennisaddict]

Things can change . Murray running into Dolgopolov in R2 and Fed making a USO final, followed by another good run at WTF to the final. One more year in top 2.

At this rate, Rafa's spot at max weeks at No 2 is under threat

 

[Djokovic2011]

Things can change . Murray running into Dolgopolov in R2 and Fed making a USO final, followed by another good run at WTF to the final. One more year in top 2.

At this rate, Rafa's spot at max weeks at No 2 is under threat

Fed losing his #2 ranking to Murray is nothing to be ashamed of tennisaddict. I think you need to accept that it's gonna happen pretty soon.

 

[zagor]

Would bet on Murray though unless he wins USO, Stan is the 2nd best player for me this year (for the last two years really). Don't see Fed doing much for the rest of the year except a decent run at the Real Slam.

 

[tennisaddict]

Fed losing his #2 ranking to Murray is nothing to be ashamed of tennisaddict. I think you need to accept that it's gonna happen pretty soon.

I am ok with it. Just that I don't think it is as easy as it sounds for Murray.

Old man always has a few tricks up his sleeve. But given that he chose not to play Miami and Montreal and instead play Istanbul, I think he does not care anymore.

 

[Djokovic2011]

I am ok with it. Just that I don't think it is as easy as it sounds for Murray.

Old man always has a few tricks up his sleeve. But given that he chose not to play Miami and Montreal and instead play Istanbul, I think he does not care anymore.

And neither should you babe.

 

[JRAJ1988]

As a Muzztard it doesn't bother me if Murray finishes 2nd, I just want him to beat Federer, Djokovic and Wawrinka, something he hasn't done since Wimbledon 2013. To be the best you've got to beat the best.

Slams and slaying the very best is what I want Murray to achieve.

 

[mattosgrant]

If my calculations are correct, Fed has 4,820 points to defend for the rest of the year. He's skipping Rogers Cup, where he picked up 600 points last year, so that would put him at 9,065 points if he matches last years performance. Still quite a bit ahead of the rest of the field.

You are assuming Murray will have the same results as last year which is highly unlikely ( he will almost certainly have far better and continue gaining ranking points, as he is playing far better than last year). Wawrinka also didnt do much after Monte Carlo last year and will likely gain on last years points considerably.

Even if Federer defends his points from last year, no sure thing but feasible, he could well still drop.

As already mentioned the race is a better perspective on where all currently stand.

 

[spirit95]

if he matches last years performance

There's no reason to think that's going to happen. His conclusion to 2014 was stellar.

 

[zagor]

But OP asked about finishing in 2015 not the race. Different points.

They're one and the same. Who finishes better in the race will also finish higher in rankings, all this defending points stuff doesn't really matter.

 

[cluckcluck]

There's no reason to think that's going to happen. His conclusion to 2014 was stellar.

I'm clearly speculating.
There's nothing that proves any player in the field will achieve or lose anything finishing the year. Strange thing happen (2014 USO final), so predicting anything is hard to do.

 

[tennisaddict]

Ironic that Murray with 0 wins against both Federer and Novak for couple of years will become No 2.

Player with a 0-9 running trend against No 1, reaching No 2 looks bad.

 

[mattosgrant]

Assuming Murray to have the same results to end this year as last is ridiculous though. He is playing so much better than last year, the likelihood of him having the same finish is 2% or less. So that alone is why going by ranking points is meaningless. Even if Federer roughly defends his points, the odds of Murray ending above 9000 points is quite good.

 

[mattosgrant]

Ironic that Murray with 0 wins against both Federer and Novak for couple of years will become No 2.

Player with a 0-9 running trend against No 1, reaching No 2 looks bad.

That is similar to saying it looked bad Federer was #1 so many years as Nadal's b1tch. Performance against the field matters most.

 

[tennisaddict]

That is similar to saying it looked bad Federer was #1 so many years as Nadal's b1tch. Performance against the field matters most.

Did Federer have a 0-9 stretch ? Heck, even at 34 , he is the only player to beat the no 1 multiple times.

Rafa never showed up post FO. So, Murray-Djokovic is not comparable to Fedal rivalry

 

[mattosgrant]

Rafa never showed up post FO.

Sure, except for his combined 8 Wimbledon and U.S Open finals, winning 4 of them. Pretty good for not showing up. 99.9% of players on tour would love that not showing up equivalent.

You seem to be a TMF clone, anything that contradicts what you like you have a handy made excuse ready for, which you will happily contradict in future instances without knowing (or caring).

 

[ultradr]

Nadal's "goal" for 2015 should be to finish at #4 (or better?).

After US Open, Djokovic might pace himself if #1 is gauranteed. Indoor season will be very competitive for #2 spot.

 

[tennisaddict]

Sure, except for his combined 8 Wimbledon and U.S Open finals, winning 4 of them. Pretty good for not showing up. 99.9% of players on tour would love that not showing up equivalent.

You seem to be a TMF clone, anything that contradicts what you like you have a handy made excuse ready for, which you will happily contradict in future instances without knowing (or caring).

Remind me how many HC finals Rafa made before 2010 again ?

Fed beat Rafa 2 out of 3 times at Wimbledon

 

[zagor]

Ironic that Murray with 0 wins against both Federer and Novak for couple of years will become No 2.

Player with a 0-9 running trend against No 1, reaching No 2 looks bad.

Irrelevant, he's been extremely consistent in slams this year and won a masters title in Madrid.

 

[tennisaddict]

Irrelevant, he's been extremely consistent in slams this year and won a masters title in Madrid.

I never said it is not deserved. I said it is ironic. There is a difference.

Just not good for the sport to have one sided match ups especially when Novak is more consistent than even Andy

 

[ultradr]

Rafa never showed up post FO.

Well, he is pretty strong on summer hard courts.

He never really showed up at indoor seasons. He is either injured or year end #1 has pretty much decided.
If you think about it, the importance of indoor season much diminished compared to past (mainly because #1 is decided by then).

Now #1 dominates whole year and year end #1 is decided by summer hard court seasons.
Prior to 2000s, players could dominate only 1 or 2 surfaces and indoor season often became a decider.

I think Nadal has much more motivation for indoor season 2015.

 

[uscwang]

I felt Murray maybe is underrated by some here.
This season, in GS, he has reached 1 final and 2 semis; in ATP1000, he has 1 W, 1 F, 1 semi; he has won 1 ATP500 and 1 ATP 250; and he has won all 4 DC matches.
His losses in GS and ATP1000 are to Novak (x4) and Fed (on grass). While he unfortunately has fallen into Rafa's role in 2011 to Novak, it doesn't necessarily mean he isn't playing near his peak. His record to Top 20 players not named Djokovic is 14-2 (Fed and Simon), 6-1 to Top 10 non-Serbian players.
I'm interested to see if Andy can reach #2 by USO. He will have 7,480 + points from DC, Canada and Cincy (max 2,500), compared to Fed's 8,065 + points from Cincy (max 1,000). I like his odds.

 

[chjtennis]

Murray is obviously the most likely candidate but I think Federer will be close to him. Federer is defending a lot of points in Cincy and USO, as well as Basel, Shanghai and WTF, but I think he still plays well enough to collect a lot of points in the remainder of the year. Murray obviously needs just a few big results to overtake Federer, so I think he is the most likely one. Wawrinka's biggest problem is consistency and I still doubt if he can mange to perform well over a period of time. I think it will be 1. Djokovic 2. Murray 3. Federer and 4. Wawrinka.

 

[roysid]

It should be Murray as he is leading the race. Fed typically plays better in second half (in Cinci and indoor tournaments). But he is skipping Rogers cup which indicates he really isn't bothered by ranking and small tourneys, US open is what he'll drive for.

 

[Mainad]

Until recently, I thought Murray had a good chance of taking the number #2 spot. Now, I'm not so sure. He's had a great start to the season but his form has been slipping since Wimbledon. He is complaining of tiredness much more (Davis Cup, Washington). IMO that doesn't bode too well and I'm far from certain that he is going to do that well in the second half of the season. I really don't now expect him to win or reach the finals of any of the remaining North American hardcourt events. Indeed, we may see some more surprise early exits. That's just how I sense it and I am probably his biggest supporter on here.

I now expect Federer to hold onto his number 2 ranking with Wawrinka as currently the only potential threat. Murray will have his job cut out to hold onto the number #3 spot!

 

[mattosgrant]

Federer is way behind Murray and Wawrinka in the race. He will have to have a great final part of the year, and both of those a poor one, for him to remain #2.

I cant see it being Fed. If not Murray, it will be Stan.