Federer and Sampras
I think the first misconception is that Sampras had to compete against all these legendary players to fight for his spot at number 1. This is simply not true, at least if you are contriving the argument from the perspective that he had to compete against Conners, Lendl, Borg, McEnroe and Wilander. This is because if you refer to the table for Sampras, it is clear that the average age of the legends that he had to compete against was far greater than the age of Sampras. These guys were heading out of the game when Sampras had already arrived. Thus there is absolutely no point in bringing these guys into the same arena of competition as Sampras.
To understand the competition Sampras was really facing, I would like to refer you to this site:
http://www.tennis-x.com/stats/atprankhist.shtml . Consider all the players before 1993 when Sampras first achieved the number 1 ranking. All these spots were filled by Lendl, Borg, McEnroe, Conners and Nastase, Wilander if you consider the old guys. Even though Conners and McEnroe had many consecutive year-end number 1 streaks (4-6 years), there was a lot of competition here. This heated competition is indicated by the number of consecutive weeks each player was number each year. Conners, McEnroe, Borg and Lendl especially, were sporadically bouncing off number 1 spots continuously throughout the years.
We see a shift around 1989 to 1992, where Courier, Edberg, Lendl and Becker are exchanging the number 1 position, that is, until Sampras arrives in 1993. Now what? Well by 1993, look at the ages of McEnroe, Borg, Conners, Lendl, Edberg and Wilander in respective order: 34, 37, 41, 33, 27 and 29. Sampras was 22. Considering the peak age of an athlete to be about 30 (which is a high estimate), all these guys were done and only Edberg and Wilander perhaps might have had something left. However, according to the number 1 rankings, Wilander disappears after and Edberg is left to compete against Courier and Becker to battle for the number 1 spot.
This nullifies all suppositions that Sampras was racing against these guys to be number 1. I am so sick of people saying he was competing with these guys. They’re part of a completely different generation. It’s just no longer about skill at a certain point. For example, a 16 year old kid who has just enough skill to put the ball into the court all the time would always destroy a 40-50 year old no matter how good the older guy is. When you consider top-level competition, fitness becomes a very important factor so that even for 30-40 year-olds it becomes tougher to compete against 20 year-old kids, which is the case for Sampras and it is a clear one at that.
But then Sampras was competing against someone right? Well, of course he was, but it wasn’t them and from my deduction, it wasn’t even a group of people, it was just one person.
From 1993 right up to about 2000, look at the people who were number 1. It is quite a respectable group with many strong names. Sampras, Rios, Courier, Agassi, Muster, Kafelnikov, Rafter and Moya all had number 1 for some time between 1993 and 2000. There are some anomalies here though. First, let’s see what happens if we group all the single digit weeks at number into one group, excluding Agassi and Sampras. This puts Muster, Kafelnikov, Rafter, Moya, Courier and Rios into one group with 24 weeks at number 1 in total. 24 weeks? Combined? This is hardly considered competition I would say. So out goes the theory that Sampras was facing so much tough competition. Sure, these guys were all great players and yes they gave Sampras some trouble but it wasn’t long until he came back to claim the number 1 ranking. If these guys were consistently appearing in the number 1 spot over Sampras’ career, then it could be said that they were posing a big problem for him but they weren’t. Muster shows up twice just like Rios and then there’re Kafelnikov, Rafter, Moya and Courier who pop up and disappear quickly.
So who’s left? Interestingly enough, only Agassi and Sampras are left. Agassi was number 1 for 87 weeks, while Sampras, the year-end number 1 between 1993 and 1998, has a total of 286 weeks in total over his career. The largest chunk of this 268 comes between 96 and 98 for a period of 102 consecutive weeks at number 1.
Between 93 and 95, it was only Sampras and Agassi dominating for a combined total of 143 weeks out of 156 weeks and even here, Sampras had a greater total number of weeks at number 1 than Agassi. From 96 to 98, it was only Sampras but what ended that streak? Well, one factor could be age. In 1998, Sampras was 26 when he lost his ranking, aging to 27 later that year. But even after losing it, he reclaimed it for a total of 59 weeks between 1998 and 2000 although not consecutively.
Obviously players at the top level are not competing with each other just physically. To be number 1, you need that sound mentality but it is built upon years of accrued physical work to fine-tune the physical self to the point where it melds with the mental side. So to compete, you do still need peak physical conditioning and these non-consecutive appearances could be explained by Sampras being slightly older or about the same age as these guys. Moya, Kafelnikov and Rios are about 3-5 years younger than Sampras, whereas Rafter and Agassi are about the same age as him.
Despite slowly crumbling apart, Sampras mustered up two more grand slams. His last Wimbledon in 2000 and a U.S. Open title in 2002. These two titles are more representative of Sampras’ strength both physical and mental as he had a much wider field of competition where much younger guys like Safin, Hewitt and even Kuerten were fighting for the number one spot. He was older than them and he wasn’t playing as well but he found it in himself to still claim two more titles and this is what being a champion is all about.
Now Federer. It would be a grievous mistake to consider that Federer has no competition but in terms of the number 1 ranking, Roger has been untouchable thus far. Look at the age differences of the top players in the table for Roger above. Except for Agassi and Sampras, most of the players are pretty much Roger’s age so there are very few younger guys coming in to take his spot. Djokovic, Nadal and Gasquet are immediate contenders in this respect but Canas and Nalbandian have given Federer trouble as well but not enough to shake him from his reign of dominance. So in terms of competition, if only similar age players (+/-5 years) are considered, only the old era of McEnroe, Lendl, Borg and Connors was a true era of competition.
Consider the period before Federer became number 1 but after Nov. 20, 2000 when Safin was number 1 for a little while. This is a period of transition and it is interspersed with a variety of names: Kuerten, Hewitt, Ferrero, Roddick and even Agassi. Hewitt of course covers the largest portion with 77 weeks at number 1 but look at the general pattern.
A great player dominates for a large number of consecutive weeks, then tapers off with sporadic appearances at number 1 and then calls it a career after some time. Once the great player is gone, there is a period of transition. If we consult the number 1 rankings again, we see that Connors was number 1 for 160 weeks before being overtaken by Borg, who was overtaken by McEnroe. Borg left early and then we have McEnroe and Connors battling each other in a transition period. This period represents a lot of competition among these players but in 85 after lots of exchanges for the number 1 spot, Lendl controls it for 157 weeks and then 20 weeks later for 80 weeks and gradually disappears with a period of transition that leads to Sampras’ dominance of the game. And what we see when Sampras was progressively moving out of the game is the appearance of Roger Federer in the game.