Well it's not like Federer's withdrawal affects his chances.
Normally I'd agree, but after losing to Ferrer and Almagro, I wouldn't rule out Fed's chances at MADRID where Nadal has never been his most comfortable and where Federer has won twice. Court is a decent one for Fed to play Nadal, never mind that Nadal has been playing pretty badly. Nadal's chances have improved with Fed out. Unless Nadalis back to good form regardless of the competition.
Nadal hasn't lost more than twice during the clay-court season since 2004, so nothing to worry about- especially as it isn't as bad as 2011, when Nadal had losses at two Masters 1000s, rather than a loss in 1 Masters 1000 and an ATP 500.
Yeah losing to Ferrer and Almagro in the quarterfinals is better than losing to Djokovic in a final. Lol, nice fantasy land. not tomention, that he hasn't had the chance to lose at 2 lay masters since only one has been played so far. At least in 2011 he managed to win Barca and not get beaten by two lapdogs.