Djokovic's decline will surprise people...

[roger presley]

This would make sense if he were a robot. No matter the reason, time is not kind to anyone, and no one can simply turn a switch on and everything goes back to the way it once was.................

It's a combination of health, mental and desire.........................they are all linked................you can't separate them

Maybe you’re right,we’ll see in 2017.

 

[mike danny]

It's not that surprising. He just delayed the inevitable with good play until the grass season. Father time spares no one.

Nadal's decline was the most shocking as he was only 27-28 when it set in.

 

[NBP]

My point, and it's arguable, is that when Djokovic does indeed decline, he doesn't need a resurgent Federer or a goating Nadal. All he needs is for the loss in his split step and a fraction of a tired mind, and he'll be losing to guys ranked in the 20s who go for broke, and he'll be punished.

Now Istomin...

Spoiler

On a serious note though, another symptom of this decline is his constant, constant losing of vital tie-breaks. 2 vs. Querrey at Wimbledon, 2 and both vs. del Potro at the Olympics, Cilic in Paris and now the 2 today.

 

[Boom-Boom]

Now Istomin...

Spoiler

On a serious note though, another symptom of this decline is his constant, constant losing of vital tie-breaks. 2 vs. Querrey at Wimbledon, 2 and both vs. del Potro at the Olympics, Cilic in Paris and now the 2 today.

yep good call OP

 

[jimmy0slams]

Nadal to easily win it now ...

 

[Feather]

Now Istomin...

On a serious note though, another symptom of this decline is his constant, constant losing of vital tie-breaks. 2 vs. Querrey at Wimbledon, 2 and both vs. del Potro at the Olympics, Cilic in Paris and now the 2 today.

This is a good observation

 

[clayqueen]

It's not that surprising. He just delayed the inevitable with good play until the grass season. Father time spares no one.

Nadal's decline was the most shocking as he was only 27-28 when it set in.

What's shocking? Rafa has been out with injury for 30 months in his career, and for more than 12 months since 2012.

 

[clayqueen]

del duplicate

 

[nadalfan2017]

My beautiful and delightful Rafa has never had a shocking decline. He only declines when he suffers from debilitating injuries and misfortunes with hot plates and chairs.

 

[Incognito]

Decline? He beat Sir Murray just last week

Istomin stayed with him, and didn't get intimidated

 

[Deleted member 512391]

Decline? He beat Sir Murray just last week

Istomin stayed with him, and didn't get intimidated

I think it's something else.

While I agree that Istomin stayed with him and deserves full credits, there was a significant difference in Djokovic's approach in some crucial moments in the same match. In the first game, that lasted longer than 15 minutes, Djokovic upped his game and took the initiative whenever he faced a break point (5 or 6 times), he found a good first serve and started playing aggressively, hitting deep shots and forcing errors from Istomin and hitting the winners.

In the later stages of the match, however, he simply didn't have the same mindset, too many short balls that landed in the middle of the court that were pulverized. And the fact that he didn't use any of his usual tricks speaks for itself. I'm not saying that he gave up, but there was clearly something unusual.

Istomin, however, wasn't paying attention to the "aura of invincibility" and took his chances. Kudos to him.

 

[Im(moral) Winner]

OP wasn't surprised.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

 

[Charlemagne]

Sharp analysis OP. Kudos.

 

[Jackuar]

Where is Prophet.NBP? Please tell what the future holds for Federer and the next gen.

Great call. Great thread.

 

[Sudacafan]

At least one prediction which resisted the pass of time. Good to see, after all those brainfarts delivered here.

 

[Zhilady]

No, because when Federer was the same age Djokovic is now (early 2010), this was what he had achieved in the last 6 Slams:
4 Slams
2 Slam runners-up

Now, look at what Djokovic has achieved in the last 6 Slams:
4 Slams
1 Slam runner-up
1 Slam semifinal

Remarkably similar. And what did Federer do past the age of 28.5? He didn't make another Grand Slam final for over a year, and went on to win just 1 more Slam in the next 5 years. What makes you think Djokovic will win more than 5 Slams?

Lendl won 2 Slams past the age of 28.5.
Connors won 3 Slams past the age of 28.5.
Agassi won 5 Slams past the age of 28.5. The only real exception to the rule.

And if Djokovic follows Federer's relative performance, he'd win 1 more Slam at best. Djokovic's best case scenario would be getting to 15, insofar as I can see.

That's 13%. So it's very unlikely.

Think of it this way. When your body starts to betray you, your game is going to hit a bad low, because you don't understand what's going wrong. It's only when you grow into your new body and understand its limitations that you begin to play to your potential again. The same is happening with Nadal right now. I feel confident he's going to be (slightly) better next year than he was this year.

It doesn't matter what your opposition's age is. Federer's opposition didn't suddenly become younger in 2010. He just became worse, and less consistent, making him beatable for a range of players. The same could happen to Djokovic, and he might become beatable for even 35-year-old Federer. There is always variance in performance, and Djokovic's is very narrow right now. That's not gonna last forever.

Federer didn't care as much about Masters. He skipped 9 Masters tournaments in his peak years of 2004-2006. How he performed at Masters has no bearing on his actual level.

Federer at 28.5 had won 4 of the last 6 Slams.
Djokovic at 28.5 had won 4 of the last 6 Slams.

Federer won 1 Slam past the age of 28.5.
We don't know how many more Slams Djokovic will win. But it won't be more than 5.

I'm saying it's entirely possible that he won't win more than 1 Slam next year. My current prediction is that he wins 2 Slams next year.

Smart poster.

 

[Meles]

OP wasn't surprised.

Great bump. Novak on his way with Daniels match

 

[jm1980]

OP wasn't surprised.

Sharp analysis OP. Kudos.

Where is Prophet.NBP? Please tell what the future holds for Federer and the next gen.

Great call. Great thread.

At least one prediction which resisted the pass of time. Good to see, after all those brainfarts delivered here.

Smart poster.

Great bump. Novak on his way with Daniels match

He he he

 

[Doctor/Lawyer Red Devil]

September 2015

Federer didn't care as much about Masters. He skipped 9 Masters tournaments in his peak years of 2004-2006. How he performed at Masters has no bearing on his actual level.

Federer at 28.5 had won 4 of the last 6 Slams.
Djokovic at 28.5 had won 4 of the last 6 Slams.

Federer won 1 Slam past the age of 28.5.
We don't know how many more Slams Djokovic will win. But it won't be more than 5.

Turns out he has won more than 5.

 

[TheAssassin]

Now Istomin...

Spoiler

On a serious note though, another symptom of this decline is his constant, constant losing of vital tie-breaks. 2 vs. Querrey at Wimbledon, 2 and both vs. del Potro at the Olympics, Cilic in Paris and now the 2 today.

Good thread actually, even with his recent resurgence.

But I bet you wish now more than ever that he stayed at that level regarding tiebreaks.

 

[Lleytonstation]

He he he

I bet you could find a whole GPPD page worth to bump.

 

[jm1980]

I bet you could find a whole GPPD page worth to bump.

There probably is, it just happens that I this was one of the threads in my bookmarks

 

[AceSalvo]

Many think he has no competition, so he'll dominate into his 30s...

This may not be the case..

It is still the case until there is a Next Gen with the right back bone. No one could have predicted there would be failures for Next Gen after Next Gen.

Just glad Fed didn’t chose to retire in 2016. Or else it would have been a whole different story.

 

[NoleFam]

You guys love these threads don't you? You just love going back reading this stuff. Be honest now.

 

[NBP]

No honestly let's be fair guys, I was right in what I said. Maybe you can say 80%, because he really did start losing to journeymen. But he bounced back and credit to him, I have no qualms in saying that. I've always respected Djokovic, a player with zero gaps in his stats, but I remember when I made this thread, there was just an outright europhia over him breaking the record, and I felt like I had to say something.

Though it is July 2019, 4 years on, and he still hasn't broken the 17 barrier. Nonetheless he will break 20 soon enough and he will get the record weeks at No.1 and year-end finishes. Maybe that Wimbledon final was just meant to be, and Fed isn't destined to hold his records.

 

[Dilexson]

Meh bump really.
Even as late as 2016 it looked like big 3 were on their way out slowly. It would've been crazy to imagine their current slam counts back then.
I mean Fed at 20? I would've laughed out of somebody told me back in 2015/16 he's gonna be on 20 some day.

 

[GabeT]

No honestly let's be fair guys, I was right in what I said. Maybe you can say 80%, because he really did start losing to journeymen. But he bounced back and credit to him, I have no qualms in saying that. I've always respected Djokovic, a player with zero gaps in his stats, but I remember when I made this thread, there was just an outright europhia over him breaking the record, and I felt like I had to say something.

Though it is July 2019, 4 years on, and he still hasn't broken the 17 barrier. Nonetheless he will break 20 soon enough and he will get the record weeks at No.1 and year-end finishes. Maybe that Wimbledon final was just meant to be, and Fed isn't destined to hold his records.

It was a good analysis and you raised valid points (see post #2!). But you also concluded that Fed’s attacking style suited him better to win more after 30 and that turned out not to be the case. So far Novak has been doing better in his 30s than Federer.

 

[MeatTornado]

I think the surprising part is that he's still dominating while noticeably vulnerable. For as amazing as he still is, there are so many more holes exposed than 4 years ago. He has more mental lapses but has also become so good at knowing when to turn it on. His mentality when it matters is still 2nd to none and that wins him more matches than I can count.

It's baffling that the only player to beat him since this slam resurgence is Thiem at RG. If only there were more Thiem-caliber players off clay, then maybe things could get interesting. Right now it's almost impossible to see him not winning the next USO & AO if the tour remains in its current state.

 

[CYGS]

Epic fail.

 

[Luka888]

I'm surprised . This is exactly why I hate these prediction threads. It comes back to bite you.

 

[Nadal_Django]

Sharp analysis OP. Kudos.

Yep, very sharp.

 

[Gary Duane]

I think the surprising part is that he's still dominating while noticeably vulnerable. For as amazing as he still is, there are so many more holes exposed than 4 years ago. He has more mental lapses but has also become so good at knowing when to turn it on. His mentality when it matters is still 2nd to none and that wins him more matches than I can count.

It's baffling that the only player to beat him since this slam resurgence is Thiem at RG. If only there were more Thiem-caliber players off clay, then maybe things could get interesting. Right now it's almost impossible to see him not winning the next USO & AO if the tour remains in its current state.

It would not surprise me if he wins a couple more majors and then it's over.

Or if he goes on winning majors for another 5 years.

You never know when a champion's career is over until it happens, and it's always at least a minor shock. Think of Borg in 1981. That's probably the most shocking end to a career, but Mac never had another year like 84, then there are players like Hewitt and Delpo who looked like they had long careers ahead but were stopped by injuries. If you are a fan of any top player, just enjoy every moment of the ride while it's still going on.

 

[Breakpointerer]

Epic fail.

He wasn't completely wrong though.

 

[Frans Bleker]

Nowdays people know better how to take care of their bodies nowdays. Justin Gatlin ran his fastest 100m time ever when he was 33, he is still the 5th fastest person ever on the 100m with that time. With some good genes and a proper lifestyle Djokovic can stay very fit for a long time.

Thereby, you also have to consider that a guy like Djokovic has much money to spend on his team who basically take care of everything for him. While those mid 20's guys have half the team and have to stress about their hotel reservation or other side stuff, Djoko can fully focus on performing.