D
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The hot topic here seems to be Nadal vs Djokovic, especially at RG. I honestly feel like because of the way Nadal has ruled this event for the past decade, the fact that Nadal is an all time legend, and Djokovic being above the rest of the field on clay (look at how we all presume there will likely be another Djokovic Nadal RG final (or at worst semi) clash), that this has become the biggest focus of the tennis season.
I value all slams equally, but I admit that Wimbledon has slightly more cache than the other 3, however for the previous reasons the entire season's high point for the last few years, at least for me, seems to be what happens at RG, specifically can Novak finally topple Rafa?
He has matched up far better than even Fed did against Rafa on the red stuff, but his RG record ie even worse, 0-6, despite having flashes of brilliance and getting very close (2013). I think he has to change his game-plan and these are the things I suggest:
1. Finish points quicker. Djoko is a great athlete, in some ways I think he is the best on tour and exceeds Nadal by a bit, but on clay in terms of getting to balls and extending points, Nadal still has him beat. It's an uphill battle engaging in multiple 15+ length rallies with Rafa, and as great and flexible as Novak is, everyone always seems to eventually buckles against Rafa playing this style. It's not for nothing that Soderling hit him off the court in the only time Nadal has ever lost in B05 on clay. Now, I think Novak is even better suited than Soderling to beat Nadal on clay (very rare that one can maintain that level of ballstriking over 5 sets and Rafa was perhaps not "up" for the 4th round match as he would for a final), also Novak is a much better athlete than Robin, but he has to take some of that offensive approach, and go for the kill shots more. I'd like to see him finishing points at net more, hitting aggressive shots from a bit inside the baseline on short balls, rather than allowing Rafa to reset the point, improving the infamous overhead into a kill shot. If he is suckered into playing Rafa's game 100 percent, he will lose because Rafa is playing with house money, his game just suits that style on clay better. Novak has to still play the long rallies, still show great athleticism, still be flexible and get to seemingly every ball, but he has to realize Rafa is 5 percent better at all of that (well maybe minus flexibility), and therefore Novak has to gain an advantage in being offensive and going for the kill shots. It will suit him better to keep a higher percentage of the rallies beween say 8 and 16 shots, and going for broke a tad more.
2.
Attack off the slice Sort of an off shoot of the previous point, but Novak allows Rafa too often to "reset" points and slowly but surely take charge of he rally with devastating topspin blows. I see Djoko frequently returning slices with weak slices of his own or sort of a neutral rally ball, instead he has to smack them back into the corners. You can't get lulled into the long rally and matching Nadal's neutral/defensive shots with your own , because as said before Nadal is at the advantage in that scenario with his ability to get to every ball, and clay suited devastating topspin.
3. Rob Rafa of time The most critical in my opinion. Hugging the baseline and sending his shots back flat, before they kick up all the way is the best. We saw this many times in 2011, where Novak displayed an almost Agassi like ability to take the ball early. This approach neutralizes man of Rafa's extreme advantages and keeps him on the run, and also opens up angles.
4. Beware of the FH dtl Another one of Rafa's subtle changes after the AO 2012, was hitting the FH ftl more, which he seems to save for majors vs. Novak. It seems like even though Novak's forehand is better (absolutely, not relatively (he has the best backhand on tour imo), he defends better on the backhand side and is able to be more "offensive" in defense if that make sense. Attacking on both wings and getting comfortable in hitting hard angles forehands wide to Nadal's bh off these shots from Nadal will put him in a fh to Nadal bh exchange that is favorable for him. There were a few of these in Rome 2011, and Novak won them all.
5. Serve Well Easier said than done of course. But by well, I mean placement more than anything. Serve strategically to set up 2nd and 3rd shots, using wide serves and body serves more often than he has in the past. This again relates to keeping rallies medium length and taking charge.
All of this of course is very difficult, but I think these could help Novak get over the edge if the 2 happen to meet this year. Feel free to add your own or disagree.
I didn't create a list for Rafa, because he doesn't need one. What he has done at RG this past decade is perhaps the most incredible achievement in sports in the 21st century. It is quite possible Novak could do all of these and still lose.
I value all slams equally, but I admit that Wimbledon has slightly more cache than the other 3, however for the previous reasons the entire season's high point for the last few years, at least for me, seems to be what happens at RG, specifically can Novak finally topple Rafa?
He has matched up far better than even Fed did against Rafa on the red stuff, but his RG record ie even worse, 0-6, despite having flashes of brilliance and getting very close (2013). I think he has to change his game-plan and these are the things I suggest:
1. Finish points quicker. Djoko is a great athlete, in some ways I think he is the best on tour and exceeds Nadal by a bit, but on clay in terms of getting to balls and extending points, Nadal still has him beat. It's an uphill battle engaging in multiple 15+ length rallies with Rafa, and as great and flexible as Novak is, everyone always seems to eventually buckles against Rafa playing this style. It's not for nothing that Soderling hit him off the court in the only time Nadal has ever lost in B05 on clay. Now, I think Novak is even better suited than Soderling to beat Nadal on clay (very rare that one can maintain that level of ballstriking over 5 sets and Rafa was perhaps not "up" for the 4th round match as he would for a final), also Novak is a much better athlete than Robin, but he has to take some of that offensive approach, and go for the kill shots more. I'd like to see him finishing points at net more, hitting aggressive shots from a bit inside the baseline on short balls, rather than allowing Rafa to reset the point, improving the infamous overhead into a kill shot. If he is suckered into playing Rafa's game 100 percent, he will lose because Rafa is playing with house money, his game just suits that style on clay better. Novak has to still play the long rallies, still show great athleticism, still be flexible and get to seemingly every ball, but he has to realize Rafa is 5 percent better at all of that (well maybe minus flexibility), and therefore Novak has to gain an advantage in being offensive and going for the kill shots. It will suit him better to keep a higher percentage of the rallies beween say 8 and 16 shots, and going for broke a tad more.
2.
Attack off the slice Sort of an off shoot of the previous point, but Novak allows Rafa too often to "reset" points and slowly but surely take charge of he rally with devastating topspin blows. I see Djoko frequently returning slices with weak slices of his own or sort of a neutral rally ball, instead he has to smack them back into the corners. You can't get lulled into the long rally and matching Nadal's neutral/defensive shots with your own , because as said before Nadal is at the advantage in that scenario with his ability to get to every ball, and clay suited devastating topspin.
3. Rob Rafa of time The most critical in my opinion. Hugging the baseline and sending his shots back flat, before they kick up all the way is the best. We saw this many times in 2011, where Novak displayed an almost Agassi like ability to take the ball early. This approach neutralizes man of Rafa's extreme advantages and keeps him on the run, and also opens up angles.
4. Beware of the FH dtl Another one of Rafa's subtle changes after the AO 2012, was hitting the FH ftl more, which he seems to save for majors vs. Novak. It seems like even though Novak's forehand is better (absolutely, not relatively (he has the best backhand on tour imo), he defends better on the backhand side and is able to be more "offensive" in defense if that make sense. Attacking on both wings and getting comfortable in hitting hard angles forehands wide to Nadal's bh off these shots from Nadal will put him in a fh to Nadal bh exchange that is favorable for him. There were a few of these in Rome 2011, and Novak won them all.
5. Serve Well Easier said than done of course. But by well, I mean placement more than anything. Serve strategically to set up 2nd and 3rd shots, using wide serves and body serves more often than he has in the past. This again relates to keeping rallies medium length and taking charge.
All of this of course is very difficult, but I think these could help Novak get over the edge if the 2 happen to meet this year. Feel free to add your own or disagree.
I didn't create a list for Rafa, because he doesn't need one. What he has done at RG this past decade is perhaps the most incredible achievement in sports in the 21st century. It is quite possible Novak could do all of these and still lose.
