FO: Djoker favorite. Nadal the differentiator.

djokerer

Banned
Right now, Djoker is still the favorite to win FO.
Murray a distant next followed by Nadal.
I'd say 60-30-10 for the three players. But they change depending on the draw as explained below.

Nadal's placement in the draw will heavily decide the winner of the FO.

If Murray draws Nadal, its a cake walk for Djoker (provided Murray and Nadal meet in semis)

If Djoker draws Nadal, Djokers chances fall drastically. Nadal is in form, it's a 5 set match and he loves the conditions. Though Djoker beat him lately, Nadal still leads in slams (it's like 1-4? In slams lately) . Djoker might win it but it's going to be a dog fight.

Nadal is doing good but to go through Djoker and Murray will be a tough ask at this stage of his career.
Chances of all three players also depends on who draws the pretenders like Nishikori, Krygios, in form Theim and Stan. That will take a toll. Unless there are upsets and above mentioned players don't make deep.
All things said, Nadal is the biggest threat Djoker or Murray need to avoid.


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djokerer

Banned
Murray is only second favourite if Rafa is in Nole's half IMO.
Agreed but that's 50/50.
All things considered Given Nadal has to go through Djoker-Murray and probably one more good player, Nadal has smaller chance of winning it all than Murray
 
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