I think Nadal wins the Slam Race at 22. Fed/Djoker end on 20.

[Saula]

Honestly do you honestly think Medvedev wins a slam again? Zverev? Tsitsipas?
Inagree rafa and Roger are way past it but honestly id fancy them against Next agen at all majors if theybcan move ok .

Dude Medvedev is 25 just won a slam and has been in 3 slam finals , he is the number 2 in the world and is possibly better on hard courts than even Novak now , do you really think he is done ?
Zverev pushed Novak hard in the last 2 slams they played , Novak wont win every war they play . Zverev is such of enigma of a player , has such a high level game that can beat anybody but he is too inconsistent and mentally all over the place , but because he has the game to win slams he will push trough sooner or later , he is too good not to .
Tsitsipas is the one i have the least faith in , the slam he plays best is the FO yet he has Novak and Rafa there , I can maybe see him beat Novak there but not Rafa , Nadal will bully him on the bh side like he did Roger on clay his whole career .
Thiem could come back , i don't think he is done at all , and he won a slam already , i think he can genuinely beat both Novak and Rafa at the FO but only if he plays on a really high level so it depends can he come back and play like he use to , time will only tell .
Nadal is still a threat at slams , FO he is still the fav , but Novak beat him this year witch shows Nadal is not invincible , Nadal is not winning the AO , conditions are awful for him . He has a chance at WIMB but only if he avoids Novak , i don't like his chances against Novak there . USO , he could win it but has to get a very good draw , he is not beating the likes of Zverev/Medvedev/Djokovic back to back to back , lets just be real here . Biggest issue with Nadal is not so much his game but it's his physical endurance , the longer the match goes the more he gasses out , if he goes to wars back to back i don't see him winning both times .
Federer is just done . The man is 40 , had so many injuries in the last 2 years . He barely plays tennis , if he doesn't commit to the tour and plays like it's his side job he won't win a Masters let alone a Slam . The only slam i could maybe see him having a chance is Wimbledon , but he has to not play Novak there because we know he can't beat Novak at slam anymore , i wouldn't fancy his chances against a few top players even there , if Roger shows the desire to play most of the tour and goes to Wimbledon with enough match play , it is possible he could make a deep run , but to win it ? He needs to get lucky , get an easy draw and pray somebody beats Novak for him , because if he couldn't do it in 2019 he wont do it now for sure .

 

[ChaelAZ]

Unpopular prediction around here no doubt but I’m calling Nadal as the final slam champ ending on 22.

“But Vex, Djokovic is coming off 27/28 slam matches won, you’re crazy that he won’t win another.”

Maybe. Maybe not. To my eyes his groundstrokes have seriously declined since 2018/2019. His ROS is also in decline. His stamina, in decline. His durability, starting to decline. Movement, unquestionably long since declined. His mental toughness I’d even argue, is in decline. Now he’s masked some of this with an improved served and improved volleys. But there are like 5-6 guys now that I think have broken into the “if he plays this guy, he’s in for a war” category. And that’s too much for him without his peak weapons/skills.

I think 2022 plays out like this:

AO: Med/Tsits/Zvev
RG: Nadal peaks one last time on clay
Wimbledon: Someone random, with Djokovic losing before the final.
USO: Nadal musters a final slam with Djokovic again being upset by a younger player before the final.

And I think that will be the end of the Big 3 winning slams.

I will take $100 at 1:4 odds in your favor.


I don't think Djo will be the issue like so many novabots group think, but more that Nadal is a confidence player and this time off, while it has happened in the past, is going to have a different effect. I think he still competes at AO as usual, makes a big run at Wimby, wins the FO, but struggles at USO.

 

[goldengate14]

Dude Medvedev is 25 just won a slam and has been in 3 slam finals , he is the number 2 in the world and is possibly better on hard courts than even Novak now , do you really think he is done ?
Zverev pushed Novak hard in the last 2 slams they played , Novak wont win every war they play . Zverev is such of enigma of a player , has such a high level game that can beat anybody but he is too inconsistent and mentally all over the place , but because he has the game to win slams he will push trough sooner or later , he is too good not to .
Tsitsipas is the one i have the least faith in , the slam he plays best is the FO yet he has Novak and Rafa there , I can maybe see him beat Novak there but not Rafa , Nadal will bully him on the bh side like he did Roger on clay his whole career .
Thiem could come back , i don't think he is done at all , and he won a slam already , i think he can genuinely beat both Novak and Rafa at the FO but only if he plays on a really high level so it depends can he come back and play like he use to , time will only tell .
Nadal is still a threat at slams , FO he is still the fav , but Novak beat him this year witch shows Nadal is not invincible , Nadal is not winning the AO , conditions are awful for him . He has a chance at WIMB but only if he avoids Novak , i don't like his chances against Novak there . USO , he could win it but has to get a very good draw , he is not beating the likes of Zverev/Medvedev/Djokovic back to back to back , lets just be real here . Biggest issue with Nadal is not so much his game but it's his physical endurance , the longer the match goes the more he gasses out , if he goes to wars back to back i don't see him winning both times .
Federer is just done . The man is 40 , had so many injuries in the last 2 years . He barely plays tennis , if he doesn't commit to the tour and plays like it's his side job he won't win a Masters let alone a Slam . The only slam i could maybe see him having a chance is Wimbledon , but he has to not play Novak there because we know he can't beat Novak at slam anymore , i wouldn't fancy his chances against a few top players even there , if Roger shows the desire to play most of the tour and goes to Wimbledon with enough match play , it is possible he could make a deep run , but to win it ? He needs to get lucky , get an easy draw and pray somebody beats Novak for him , because if he couldn't do it in 2019 he wont do it now for sure .

Mededev in Paris and IW looked very average. I just feel he may always make latter stages but will tend to lose to big3 as he has awful record with Fedal. The tsitsipas Bh is an obvious area to exploit for top players. Zverev has off court issues. Thiem i think is in decline. Sinner has stalled which always makes me wonder about a player. Berretini and Rublev are just not good enough.
I look at Murray and how mad he gets losing at the moment. I do just feel he thinks this is such an awful era that he should be makig deep runs in slams. Fedal are obviously far superior but if Murray has that mindset im sure tjose two do. Djokovic himself i would think if he wins australia will expect himself to do CYGS.
Medvedev shoukd have beat adjokovic in paris. No way Djokovic was fully motivated with YE1 sewn up. Yet he utterly outclassed a guy who one would think is at his peak and fully motivated at every event.

 

[Adv. Edberg]

Fedal will finish on 20 and Djokovic will be 26+

There's nobody that can challenge Djoko now that Fedal is semi retired.

 

[vex]

That is because you did not offer any evidence for what you said. Just saying it, whatever 'it' is (Djokovic has declined, Federer of 2008 would beat current Djokovic in straight sets, etc.) does not make it true. Make an argument yourself and not a statement and I will respond to it.

I have gone on record of saying that Djokovic's game is not that far off what it was in 2015. Is he as able to go through a long season and 5 set matches back-to-back? Probably not. But that is due to age and recovery time and not 'he has lost something in his strokes.' As shown in the Paris Masters, he can alter his game in ways that no one else can (Federer in his prime?) to adjust to the circumstances. People can say he lost the first set badly, but Medvedev is playing well and Djokovic was still rusty from taking almost two months off. I mean, come on, he has held No. 1 for two years and won 3 of the last 4 slams. This is not that weak of an era.

If you can’t recognize what’s happened with his groundstrokes over the last 2 years - numerous other Djokovic fans have noted it as well - than you’re wearing the goggles

 

[Saula]

Medvedev seemed fine in Paris and if Novak continued to try to rally from the baseline with Medvedev like he did in the first set he likely would have lost in straight sets , its only when he decided he has to come to the net and pressure Medvedev that he turned that match around and Medvedev really lost the ,, ball ,, in the third set but again this is Novak we are talking about not some random ,, pleb ,, . When the 2 of them play now when it comes to hard courts it feels like a coin toss on who is going to win . It's becoming the next rivalry and it is a close one . Indian Wells is really slow for a hard court , Medvedev really dislikes those conditions , makes sense he wont perform as well there , he even himself said that Indian Wells was so slow it felt like playing on clay , he also said what was the point of having hard courts that are slow like clay when you have clay courts .
Yeah he has a bad H2H with Nadal and Federer but you have to look from a different perspective tho . Medvedev has improved and gained more experience and age is catching up with Nadal and definitely caught up with Federer . This is not 2019 anymore , neither Nadal and especially Federer are not the same players and the longer they stay and play the less likely the match will go in their favor , except for Nadal vs Medvedev on clay , Nadal will clap him there .
I don't think that Zverev's career is in jeopardy because of those ,, of court issues ,, . He won the olympycs , pushed Novak to 5 in USO semi , he seems fine .
A lot of the great players not even just the big 3 have had resurgences in their careers , we will see how he performs in 2022 before we write him off .
Murray has a metal hip , he is done . He might have a good tournament here and there but he is a non factor , he just likes the game too much to quit , when you devote your entire life to something , sometimes its hard to accept reality , if he doesn't think playing challengers and small tournaments are beneath him considering what he has achieved well good on him i guess .
Djokovic is a ,, winner ,, in both heart and on the court , he always thinks he can win everything , if he didn't have that mindset , that belief he would not have beaten Nadal at this year's FO especially after that first set .
Don't let recency bias cloud your judgement . People make that mistake all the time , myself included sometimes . Novak destroyed Medvedev at the AO and most people wrote Medvedev off in a BO5 against Novak and what happened in the USO final ? Medvedev clapped Novak back . After that people said Novak is done , the decline is here , he will never beat Medvedev on a hard court again yada yada yada , and after a 2 month layoff he comes and wins Paris beating Medvedev in the final with also a different approach by serve and volleying witch annoyed Medvedev . Both of them will continue to do what works best against the other like Medvedev hitting flat balls in the middle of the court to prevent Novak from creating angels and not giving him pace to use against him , and hoping the serve carries him . Novak will continue to try to shorten points but not go for serve and volley all the time because he will become predictable so Novak will try to mix it up . If Medvedev is smart he will stand closer to the baseline on Novak's serve and not give him so much time to come to the net and put the volley away , that is the same mistake he made in that 2019 USO final against Nadal especially in the fifth set , he retreated so far back from the baseline he might as well been standing in China , of course a player like Nadal who has some of the best volley game ( really underrated ) part of his game is going to punish him for it . They will continue to strategize and gain an edge over the other .

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

If you can’t recognize what’s happened with his groundstrokes over the last 2 years - numerous other Djokovic fans have noted it as well - than you’re wearing the goggles

Like all players, you can cherrypick matches when they were tired, overwhelmed by the moment (USO with Djokovic) or just off their game when they don't look good. When rested and in form Djokovic still has as good of groundstrokes as anyone and by the way, Courier and other world class former players agree. So pardon me if I think differently from your assessment when the true professionals think otherwise.

That is why I think, and many agree including professionals, that Djokovic will end with 24 or more slams. It all depends on his motivation and staying healthy. He is a 34 year old who looks like he is 28. I know that all the anti-Djokovic fans will say it is a weak era, but again that is not what Courier, the McEnroe brothers, and other commentators say.

But you can choose to disagree if it helps you sleep at night.

 

[vex]

. He is a 34 year old who looks like he is 28.

First off, huge laugh at that ^ one. Clearly you’re not fit to analyze anything.

Second, link some of these interviews where pros are talking about how sharp his groundstrokes are. Aside from just watching the matches and seeing the obvious (that he is WAAAY off from his groundstroke prime) I’ve seen numerous commentators note that he isn’t winning neutral rallies against Med and Zvev like he would have previously. He looks nowhere near as sharp on groundies as he did in 2011 or 2015 or even 2018-2019. Even Novak knows it as you saw him charging the net against Med in Bercy. Honestly befuddled that you would even argue this. It’s right in front of your face.

Lastly, I’ve never said this is a weak era, it’s not. That’s why I think aging Djoker is in trouble.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

I am a physician, so I know something about bodies even if you disagree with me about groundstrokes (his face has age, but that is not what we are talking about).

Medvedev is extremely good at out-Djokovic-ing Djoker and would give prime Federer and Nadal a challenge and beat them often. As for Paris, Djokovic was not in form because he had not played for 7 weeks, got a w/o with Monfils, and knew his serve and ROS were not at his best. That is the main reason for him doing the s&v. This is a sign of strength, not weakness, that is was able to alter his tactics to beat the No. 2 player in the world. When Djokovic was in form at AO, this was not necessary. I am befuddled that you are ignoring the experts like Courier, etc., the results, and not looking at the context.

I do think that Djokovic is most vulnerable when he has a long match before a final against two very good players and this is consistent with aging where it is the recovering that tends to take longer and injuries, even small ones, are more likely.

When Nadal straight-seated Djokovic at RG in 2020, we Djokovic fans confidently sat back and waited for Djokovic to do his magic, and voila, "20>17" and "Djokovic is finished" has now turned into 20=20 and most non-aligned knowledgable fans and experts, are now saying Djokovic is the GOAT. I don't think this will be completely settled until we see if Djokovic wins more slams which I expect him to do, and we see if Nadal can do some end of career magic.

So, keep saying your silly statements; you will be eventually correct, because Father Time eventually wins. The best predictor of the near future is what happened in the recent past. I expect Djokovic to win at least 2 slams the next two years with his (according to you) diminished strokes.

 

[Texas Tennis Fan]

First off, huge laugh at that ^ one. Clearly you’re not fit to analyze anything.

Second, link some of these interviews where pros are talking about how sharp his groundstrokes are. Aside from just watching the matches and seeing the obvious (that he is WAAAY off from his groundstroke prime) I’ve seen numerous commentators note that he isn’t winning neutral rallies against Med and Zvev like he would have previously. He looks nowhere near as sharp on groundies as he did in 2011 or 2015 or even 2018-2019. Even Novak knows it as you saw him charging the net against Med in Bercy. Honestly befuddled that you would even argue this. It’s right in front of your face.

Lastly, I’ve never said this is a weak era, it’s not. That’s why I think aging Djoker is in trouble.

By the way, among your other odd comments, is one that I agree with but logically puts your entire argument in peril. You say that this is not a weak era (which I agree with), but then you say that Djokovic's strokes have substantially decreased. How can that be in, we'll say a moderate era, if he just won 3 slams and made the finals for the 4th all within the last few months? I am sure we all agree that groundstrokes, ROS, and Serve are the most important parts of tennis, but you suggest that the first two at least have decreased. Completely destroys your own argument. Congratulations on that!

 

[joshuayuan]

Unpopular prediction around here no doubt but I’m calling Nadal as the final slam champ ending on 22.

“But Vex, Djokovic is coming off 27/28 slam matches won, you’re crazy that he won’t win another.”

Maybe. Maybe not. To my eyes his groundstrokes have seriously declined since 2018/2019. His ROS is also in decline. His stamina, in decline. His durability, starting to decline. Movement, unquestionably long since declined. His mental toughness I’d even argue, is in decline. Now he’s masked some of this with an improved served and improved volleys. But there are like 5-6 guys now that I think have broken into the “if he plays this guy, he’s in for a war” category. And that’s too much for him without his peak weapons/skills.

I think 2022 plays out like this:

AO: Med/Tsits/Zvev
RG: Nadal peaks one last time on clay
Wimbledon: Someone random, with Djokovic losing before the final.
USO: Nadal musters a final slam with Djokovic again being upset by a younger player before the final.

And I think that will be the end of the Big 3 winning slams.

 

[mahatma]

OP was right till RG’22

 

[Djokodalerer31]

OP was right till RG’22

And then certain someone broke the system...LOL

 

[vex]

Welp, at the time his groundstrokes seemed in decline. He’s clearly bounced back.

 

[Jonesy]

You can never underestimate these players.

 

[LaVie en Rose]

What is the point of bumping old threads?That ppl were wrong in their wishful thinking,have poor observation skills,that are simply haters?