If WTF did rotate surfaces..

[Towser83]

This gets brought up a lot, and mainly Federer/Djokovic fans not really in favour and Nadal fans would like the surfaces switched up. Much has been made of the fact that Nadal hasn't had a fair shake, even by his own camp. My own feeling is, it's not just the surface that's held him back from winning (though I do wonder if it were outdoor hc might he have fared better) but also the event being at the end of the year, the format where you have to face top 8 players straight away

Anyway here's some different scenarios for what could have happened if the surfaces rotated. As always though it's hard to really figure out all the variables but this is a little easier since it's only changing one event, though we can still never know how a players form would translate to a different surface

Scenrio 1 -
Grass in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
HC in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Clay - 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

In this instance I think 2003 would be won by Federer, 2004 no change. 2005 is on clay but Nadal despite qualifying pulled out in 2005 so he misses his first chance, Fed was recovering from injury and lost to Nalbandian, I don't see him faring any better on clay. Possible that someone like Coria . 2006 being on grass has to go to Fed, though if Nadal makes the final over 5 sets it could be an interesting one. 2007 no change. 2008 is on clay but again Nadal missed the event. In this case I still see Djokovic winning the event. 2009 being on grass may help Federer where he failed on HC, can't really see Davydenko getting him on grass but in best of 3 you never know. 2010 on HC no change. 2011 on clay and this time Nadal did play, though he was in poor form. So was Djokovic though who was the biggest threat to Nadal on clay that year having won both matches they played. You'd expect Nadal to play better on clay and possibly Djokovic too, then there's Federer who played a pretty good match vs Nadal at RG, so now moving this to indoor clay I'd edge towards Federer but it's a tough call. 2012 on grass may help Fed there a bit since he had beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon. 2013 on HC is no change. 2014 on clay is another one Nadal missed, I can't see anyone but Djokovic winning. 2015 on grass most likely goes to Djokovic again. 2016 on hc is no change. 2017 on clay but Nadal retired from the event so was not in great shape. Hard one to call since Djokovic wasn't in it. If it's clay does Federer even play it?! lol. This year's would have to be Djokovic

Nadal's best chance is 2011, Federer i think would have 6-8 titles, Djokovic 5- 6


Scenario 2
HC in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Clay in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Grass in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 no change, 2004 is tough because Federer wasn't exactly his best on clay at this point, so possibly a clay specialist wins this one. 2005 i'd give to Federer on grass as long as that ankle holds up, 2006 no change. 2007 on clay I'd edge towards Nadal though it's not quite the same as at RG. Fed had beaten Nadal in Hamburg that year, so possible he wins this. 2008 on grass and Nadal is not playing, Fed didn't play at all well there so as much as I'd like to give him that one I still think edge towards Djokovic. 2009 no change. 2010 on clay has to go to Nadal seeing how well he played on HC in the event and the closeness of the final with Federer. 2011 on grass goes to Federer purely on the fact that Djokovic was spent by this time. 2012 no change. 2013 on clay is a tough one because Djokovic by this point was beating Nadal in best of 3 clay matches a decent amount. But given the US Open match and the way Nadal had been playing I'd have to go for Nadal. 2014 on grass is a close one between Fed and Djokovic but I'd go for Djokovic I think. 2015 on hc is no change. 2016 on clay and I feel Murray still wins that. 2017 on grass I feel Fed would actually win.

Fed 4- 6, Nadal 2-3, Nole - 4

Scenario 3
Clay in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Grass in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
HC in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 I doubt Federer wins this one. 2004 grass has to go to Federer, 2005 on hc no change. 2006 on clay is obviously in Nadal's favour though Federer played 3 very close matches vs Nadal on clay that year. As much as the indoor conditions would help Fed, I still don't think he'd manage to do any better than he did in Rome so that goes to Nadal. grass in 2007 goes to Fed though again Nadal would certainly pose problems. But I think the Wimbledon win that year eased the pressure off Fed a lot. 2008 on HC no change. 2009 on clay but Nadal lost all his round robin matches and according to many was still suffering from injuries so I would actually say that Djokovic might win that one. Hard call though because Nadal had 2 of his worst hc matchups in the RR. 2010 on grass has to go to Fed. 2011 on hc no change. 2012 on clay but Nadal didn't play so has to be Djokovic. 2013 on grass I will stick with Djokovic. 2014 on HC no change. 2015 on clay and Nadal hadn't played great that year so it's hard to decide between Djokovic and Nadal. 2016 on grass probably stays with Murray. 2017 on hc no change. Clay this year would give Theim a boost but I still would favor Djokovic

Fed - 4, Nadal 1-3, Djokovic 4-7

 

[Deleted member 743561]

You spent a lot of time on this.

Well done, sir.

Forget not that Nadal’s cycles would be thrown out of whack.

Ergo, Borg remains clay GOAT.

 

[Chanwan]

You forget one pretty important thing: If they're playing on clay, Rafa ain't injured , so no way in hell he's missing all those WTF's

 

[Spencer Gore]

“2011 on clay and this time Nadal did play, though he was in poor form. So was Djokovic though who was the biggest threat to Nadal on clay that year having won both matches they played. You'd expect Nadal to play better on clay and possibly Djokovic too, then there's Federer who played a pretty good match vs Nadal at RG, so now moving this to indoor clay I'd edge towards Federer but it's a tough call.”

Embarrassing.

You must be giving yourself a headache trying to twist scenarios in your head to bring Federer out on top.

You’re simply wasting you’re own time, never mind everyone else’s.

 

[tennis_pro]

2005 is on clay but Nadal despite qualifying pulled out in 2005 so he misses his first chance.

Nadal would play the 2005 WTF on a wheelchair if he had to if it was on clay.

 

[OhYes]

Djokovic fans don't care about surfaces, continents or group in which Djokovic will be. Seems like only Fedal fans care about that.

 

[Deleted member 743561]

Djokovic fans don't care about surfaces, continents or group in which Djokovic will be. Seems like only Fedal fans care about that.

As we know, Federer made both of them.

That must be why their fans honor their father so zealously.

 

[Towny]

This gets brought up a lot, and mainly Federer/Djokovic fans not really in favour and Nadal fans would like the surfaces switched up. Much has been made of the fact that Nadal hasn't had a fair shake, even by his own camp. My own feeling is, it's not just the surface that's held him back from winning (though I do wonder if it were outdoor hc might he have fared better) but also the event being at the end of the year, the format where you have to face top 8 players straight away

Anyway here's some different scenarios for what could have happened if the surfaces rotated. As always though it's hard to really figure out all the variables but this is a little easier since it's only changing one event, though we can still never know how a players form would translate to a different surface

Scenrio 1 -
Grass in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
HC in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Clay - 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

In this instance I think 2003 would be won by Federer, 2004 no change. 2005 is on clay but Nadal despite qualifying pulled out in 2005 so he misses his first chance, Fed was recovering from injury and lost to Nalbandian, I don't see him faring any better on clay. Possible that someone like Coria . 2006 being on grass has to go to Fed, though if Nadal makes the final over 5 sets it could be an interesting one. 2007 no change. 2008 is on clay but again Nadal missed the event. In this case I still see Djokovic winning the event. 2009 being on grass may help Federer where he failed on HC, can't really see Davydenko getting him on grass but in best of 3 you never know. 2010 on HC no change. 2011 on clay and this time Nadal did play, though he was in poor form. So was Djokovic though who was the biggest threat to Nadal on clay that year having won both matches they played. You'd expect Nadal to play better on clay and possibly Djokovic too, then there's Federer who played a pretty good match vs Nadal at RG, so now moving this to indoor clay I'd edge towards Federer but it's a tough call. 2012 on grass may help Fed there a bit since he had beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon. 2013 on HC is no change. 2014 on clay is another one Nadal missed, I can't see anyone but Djokovic winning. 2015 on grass most likely goes to Djokovic again. 2016 on hc is no change. 2017 on clay but Nadal retired from the event so was not in great shape. Hard one to call since Djokovic wasn't in it. If it's clay does Federer even play it?! lol. This year's would have to be Djokovic

Nadal's best chance is 2011, Federer i think would have 6-8 titles, Djokovic 5- 6


Scenario 2
HC in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Clay in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Grass in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 no change, 2004 is tough because Federer wasn't exactly his best on clay at this point, so possibly a clay specialist wins this one. 2005 i'd give to Federer on grass as long as that ankle holds up, 2006 no change. 2007 on clay I'd edge towards Nadal though it's not quite the same as at RG. Fed had beaten Nadal in Hamburg that year, so possible he wins this. 2008 on grass and Nadal is not playing, Fed didn't play at all well there so as much as I'd like to give him that one I still think edge towards Djokovic. 2009 no change. 2010 on clay has to go to Nadal seeing how well he played on HC in the event and the closeness of the final with Federer. 2011 on grass goes to Federer purely on the fact that Djokovic was spent by this time. 2012 no change. 2013 on clay is a tough one because Djokovic by this point was beating Nadal in best of 3 clay matches a decent amount. But given the US Open match and the way Nadal had been playing I'd have to go for Nadal. 2014 on grass is a close one between Fed and Djokovic but I'd go for Djokovic I think. 2015 on hc is no change. 2016 on clay and I feel Murray still wins that. 2017 on grass I feel Fed would actually win.

Fed 4- 6, Nadal 2-3, Nole - 4

Scenario 3
Clay in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Grass in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
HC in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 I doubt Federer wins this one. 2004 grass has to go to Federer, 2005 on hc no change. 2006 on clay is obviously in Nadal's favour though Federer played 3 very close matches vs Nadal on clay that year. As much as the indoor conditions would help Fed, I still don't think he'd manage to do any better than he did in Rome so that goes to Nadal. grass in 2007 goes to Fed though again Nadal would certainly pose problems. But I think the Wimbledon win that year eased the pressure off Fed a lot. 2008 on HC no change. 2009 on clay but Nadal lost all his round robin matches and according to many was still suffering from injuries so I would actually say that Djokovic might win that one. Hard call though because Nadal had 2 of his worst hc matchups in the RR. 2010 on grass has to go to Fed. 2011 on hc no change. 2012 on clay but Nadal didn't play so has to be Djokovic. 2013 on grass I will stick with Djokovic. 2014 on HC no change. 2015 on clay and Nadal hadn't played great that year so it's hard to decide between Djokovic and Nadal. 2016 on grass probably stays with Murray. 2017 on hc no change. Clay this year would give Theim a boost but I still would favor Djokovic

Fed - 4, Nadal 1-3, Djokovic 4-7

Thank you for putting the thought and time into this. Very interesting conclusions and I'd agree with most of your reasoning. The difficulty is that the surface rotation would have changed the actions of players. For instance, as mentioned tongue-in-cheek above, Rafa has missed quite a few of these tournaments. Some have been due to significant injury but others have been due to minor injury and fatigue. Were the surface to be clay, he might have acted differently, we don't know. The change would likely affect his training and scheduling - same for the other two.

Fed for sure would have suffered if the surface had been clay during his prime. Grass would have helped him the past few years though. I'm fairly certain if it's on clay every 3 years, Nadal grabs at least 1.

 

[OhYes]

As we know, Federer made both of them.

That must be why their fans honor their father so zealously.

On contraire- both of them have their tennis fathers and idols which aint Fed.
What made Fedfans honour Djokodal is being part of next gen who blocked their idol nicely.

 

[Towser83]

“2011 on clay and this time Nadal did play, though he was in poor form. So was Djokovic though who was the biggest threat to Nadal on clay that year having won both matches they played. You'd expect Nadal to play better on clay and possibly Djokovic too, then there's Federer who played a pretty good match vs Nadal at RG, so now moving this to indoor clay I'd edge towards Federer but it's a tough call.”

Embarrassing.

You must be giving yourself a headache trying to twist scenarios in your head to bring Federer out on top.

You’re simply wasting you’re own time, never mind everyone else’s.

Every post you make is an embarrassment. Also quite funny with the time wasting comment since you still took the time to post.

Everything I've said is reasonable, You just love your idol too much to see that. Nadal in 2011 couldn't handle Djokovic on clay and many fans have said his form wasn't good. Nadal was almost 2 sets to 0 down vs Fed at RG so on an indoor court why wouldn't Federer have a chance of beating Nadal considering Nadal was not in good form at the end of the season? I'm not saying it's a certainty, But in indoor conditions considering the closeness of the RG match, their forms going into the wtf and the conditions i would give Nadal less of an advantage than most clay events. Nadal got beaten 6-3 6-0 by Fed. That's not all down to the surface, it suggests Nadal was not in good form or 100% fit

In the scenario where 2010 is on clay I picked Nadal hands down so really you're just moaning because not every situation is picked to favour Nadal. And you've not actually offered any intelligent counter argument. Sad really.

 

[helterskelter]

In what years would it be played on blue clay under a roof with a well-functioning air-conditioning system?

 

[Subway Tennis]

This gets brought up a lot, and mainly Federer/Djokovic fans not really in favour and Nadal fans would like the surfaces switched up. Much has been made of the fact that Nadal hasn't had a fair shake, even by his own camp. My own feeling is, it's not just the surface that's held him back from winning (though I do wonder if it were outdoor hc might he have fared better) but also the event being at the end of the year, the format where you have to face top 8 players straight away

Anyway here's some different scenarios for what could have happened if the surfaces rotated. As always though it's hard to really figure out all the variables but this is a little easier since it's only changing one event, though we can still never know how a players form would translate to a different surface

Scenrio 1 -
Grass in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
HC in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Clay - 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

In this instance I think 2003 would be won by Federer, 2004 no change. 2005 is on clay but Nadal despite qualifying pulled out in 2005 so he misses his first chance, Fed was recovering from injury and lost to Nalbandian, I don't see him faring any better on clay. Possible that someone like Coria . 2006 being on grass has to go to Fed, though if Nadal makes the final over 5 sets it could be an interesting one. 2007 no change. 2008 is on clay but again Nadal missed the event. In this case I still see Djokovic winning the event. 2009 being on grass may help Federer where he failed on HC, can't really see Davydenko getting him on grass but in best of 3 you never know. 2010 on HC no change. 2011 on clay and this time Nadal did play, though he was in poor form. So was Djokovic though who was the biggest threat to Nadal on clay that year having won both matches they played. You'd expect Nadal to play better on clay and possibly Djokovic too, then there's Federer who played a pretty good match vs Nadal at RG, so now moving this to indoor clay I'd edge towards Federer but it's a tough call. 2012 on grass may help Fed there a bit since he had beaten Djokovic at Wimbledon. 2013 on HC is no change. 2014 on clay is another one Nadal missed, I can't see anyone but Djokovic winning. 2015 on grass most likely goes to Djokovic again. 2016 on hc is no change. 2017 on clay but Nadal retired from the event so was not in great shape. Hard one to call since Djokovic wasn't in it. If it's clay does Federer even play it?! lol. This year's would have to be Djokovic

Nadal's best chance is 2011, Federer i think would have 6-8 titles, Djokovic 5- 6


Scenario 2
HC in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Clay in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
Grass in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 no change, 2004 is tough because Federer wasn't exactly his best on clay at this point, so possibly a clay specialist wins this one. 2005 i'd give to Federer on grass as long as that ankle holds up, 2006 no change. 2007 on clay I'd edge towards Nadal though it's not quite the same as at RG. Fed had beaten Nadal in Hamburg that year, so possible he wins this. 2008 on grass and Nadal is not playing, Fed didn't play at all well there so as much as I'd like to give him that one I still think edge towards Djokovic. 2009 no change. 2010 on clay has to go to Nadal seeing how well he played on HC in the event and the closeness of the final with Federer. 2011 on grass goes to Federer purely on the fact that Djokovic was spent by this time. 2012 no change. 2013 on clay is a tough one because Djokovic by this point was beating Nadal in best of 3 clay matches a decent amount. But given the US Open match and the way Nadal had been playing I'd have to go for Nadal. 2014 on grass is a close one between Fed and Djokovic but I'd go for Djokovic I think. 2015 on hc is no change. 2016 on clay and I feel Murray still wins that. 2017 on grass I feel Fed would actually win.

Fed 4- 6, Nadal 2-3, Nole - 4

Scenario 3
Clay in 2003, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2015, 2018
Grass in 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, 2016
HC in 2005, 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017

2003 I doubt Federer wins this one. 2004 grass has to go to Federer, 2005 on hc no change. 2006 on clay is obviously in Nadal's favour though Federer played 3 very close matches vs Nadal on clay that year. As much as the indoor conditions would help Fed, I still don't think he'd manage to do any better than he did in Rome so that goes to Nadal. grass in 2007 goes to Fed though again Nadal would certainly pose problems. But I think the Wimbledon win that year eased the pressure off Fed a lot. 2008 on HC no change. 2009 on clay but Nadal lost all his round robin matches and according to many was still suffering from injuries so I would actually say that Djokovic might win that one. Hard call though because Nadal had 2 of his worst hc matchups in the RR. 2010 on grass has to go to Fed. 2011 on hc no change. 2012 on clay but Nadal didn't play so has to be Djokovic. 2013 on grass I will stick with Djokovic. 2014 on HC no change. 2015 on clay and Nadal hadn't played great that year so it's hard to decide between Djokovic and Nadal. 2016 on grass probably stays with Murray. 2017 on hc no change. Clay this year would give Theim a boost but I still would favor Djokovic

Fed - 4, Nadal 1-3, Djokovic 4-7

These scenarios are at odds with the way the WTF works in the current era. What has happened in the era timeframe that you are hypothetically modelling is that licence holders have staged the event over consecutive years (at least 2 in a row).

So the "what if?" modelling would more realistically involve multiyear commitments to a single surface. Maybe a 2 year fast outdoor HC licence, then maybe 3 year slow indoor HC and maybe a 2 year indoor clay licence and so on..... There hasnt been yearly rotations of surface for a long time at WTF and the ATP would not want to be renegotiating the licence every year.

It would be good to do a remodelled scenario with a real world approach to how the event has been run for the last 15 years or so with an added x factor of surface diversity. No doubt Djokovic and Federer would still fair well with Nadal sharing in the spoils more than he did in reality.

 

[Towser83]

Thank you for putting the thought and time into this. Very interesting conclusions and I'd agree with most of your reasoning. The difficulty is that the surface rotation would have changed the actions of players. For instance, as mentioned tongue-in-cheek above, Rafa has missed quite a few of these tournaments. Some have been due to significant injury but others have been due to minor injury and fatigue. Were the surface to be clay, he might have acted differently, we don't know. The change would likely affect his training and scheduling - same for the other two.

Fed for sure would have suffered if the surface had been clay during his prime. Grass would have helped him the past few years though. I'm fairly certain if it's on clay every 3 years, Nadal grabs at least 1.

Yeah I know what you mean but I didn't want to get into the whole issue of whether Nadal would play if it was clay because that just starts arguments of him skipping hc etc.

I think on clay Nadal would have to win 1 at least but his amount would really depend on if the clay edition was in a good year for him or not. In the first scenario 2011 would be his best shot. In another he could have grabbed 3 or 4 of them

These days with Fed I think he's still going to be 2nd favourite to Djokovic even on grass but a couple of years like 2012 and last year it might have helped him

 

[Towser83]

These scenarios are at odds with the way the WTF works in the current era. What has happened in the era timeframe that you are hypothetically modelling is that licence holders have staged the event over consecutive years (at least 2 in a row).

So the "what if?" modelling would more realistically involve multiyear commitments to a single surface. Maybe a 2 year fast outdoor HC licence, then maybe 3 year slow indoor HC and maybe a 2 year indoor clay licence and so on..... There hasnt been yearly rotations of surface for a long time at WTF and the ATP would not want to be renegotiating the licence every year.

It would be good to do a remodelled scenario with a real world approach to how the event has been run for the last 15 years or so with an added x factor of surface diversity. No doubt Djokovic and Federer would still fair well with Nadal sharing in the spoils more than he did in reality.

I did think of that but it's impossible to say how many years in a row it would stay on one surface. The thing is with certain venues you could install different surfaces. I'm not sure if you could put down grass at the o2 though haha.

But still we can look at each year and ponder what would have happened if it were on each different surface

 

[Towser83]

In what years would it be played on blue clay under a roof with a well-functioning air-conditioning system?

Only on leap years

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

He still would have a good backhand though

Wanna come home to my place and check out my backhand?

 

[Deleted member 716271]

Wanna come home to my place and check out my backhand?

Only if we work up a sweat together

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

Only if we work up a sweat together

How to do that? Too lazy to run. How about a sauna?

 

[Deleted member 716271]

How to do that? Too lazy to run. How about a sauna?

We can sweat more in the bedroom

 

[TheGhostOfAgassi]

We can sweat more in the bedroom

What do you mean, jumping in the bed?

 

[voldemort]

double post

 

[voldemort]

We can sweat more in the bedroom

GRRRRRRRRRR....

 

[Deleted member 716271]

GRRRRRRRRRR....

Dont worry she lives around the world from me, just banter

 

[TheAverageFedererFan]

Good predicitions. I agree for the most part.

 

[BGod]

I think realistically it would be hard having grass. You have indoor clay tournaments but not grass. You CAN do it but I wouldn't see it happening especially after Fed retires. Would be interesting to have a switch between fast and slow hard based on buffing maybe.

 

[ibbi]

They should have a rotating court like Hamilton and Les MIs have the rotating stage. Grass for one shot, clay the next, rebound ace, wood, etc.

 

[Towser83]

They should have a rotating court like Hamilton and Les MIs have the rotating stage. Grass for one shot, clay the next, rebound ace, wood, etc.

Also players could switch between wood and graphite racquets between shots

 

[Druss]

I'm pretty sure Nadal would have rocked up to the YEC (if) whenever it was scheduled to be on clay. Just like he never missed the clay swing from 2005 to 2018! Probably would have affected his post USO schedule though, like he'd be 'injured' for the Asian/indoor swing, then 'miraculously' be injury-free for the clay YEC.

 

[MeatTornado]

Still cracks me up that rotating surfaces is an actual discussion.