TheFifthSet
Legend
To counter this increasingly popular narrative I say no, for several reasons
1. Nadal has been the betting favourite in the majority of their matches…not just overall, but even 2011-onward (yes, sounds surprising, but feel free to fact-check). Even in their 17 slam matches, Nadal was the pre-match favourite in 11 or 12 of them (both in terms of official odds and what the fan consensus was, subjective as that may be).
2. The gap in level was larger from 2006-2010 than 2011-2016. People rightly cite ‘15 RG as a mismatch, but so too were ‘06-‘07 RG, as well as ‘07 Wimby given Djokovic’s physical issues coming into the match.
3. A disproportionate # of matches occurred on Nadal’s best and arguably Djokovic’s worst surface, which just so happened to be the least-represented surface on tour. In their first 18 matches, where Nadal was already closer to prime/peak, half of the matches took place on the dirt, where Novak predictably went 0-9. Even though Djokovic was in reasonably good form in ‘09 and especially ‘08, that’s a distinct surface advantage to go along with the form advantage that allowed Nadal to run up the score.
4.The 2015-16 H2H vulturing came somewhat close to evening things up, but important to note that “only” 4 of the 7 matches occurred on Djokovic’s best surface (sounding like double standards, but no…with HC making up 65% of tour events, that is not disproportionate like the previous example), where he’d be a heavy favourite even w/both in good form. Rome ‘16 is often disingenuously lumped in with their other three matches, even though neither were in great form that CC season and both snagged 1 Clay masters title, with Rafa adding a Barca title to boot).
Thoughts on where I bottled this analysis?
Edit: noticed my poll title was kind of misleading. What I meant by whom it favours more is which player benefited more from external factors like age and surface distribution (e.g if you vote Djokovic, you would think Nadal would have performed better if the circumstances were ‘fairer’).
1. Nadal has been the betting favourite in the majority of their matches…not just overall, but even 2011-onward (yes, sounds surprising, but feel free to fact-check). Even in their 17 slam matches, Nadal was the pre-match favourite in 11 or 12 of them (both in terms of official odds and what the fan consensus was, subjective as that may be).
2. The gap in level was larger from 2006-2010 than 2011-2016. People rightly cite ‘15 RG as a mismatch, but so too were ‘06-‘07 RG, as well as ‘07 Wimby given Djokovic’s physical issues coming into the match.
3. A disproportionate # of matches occurred on Nadal’s best and arguably Djokovic’s worst surface, which just so happened to be the least-represented surface on tour. In their first 18 matches, where Nadal was already closer to prime/peak, half of the matches took place on the dirt, where Novak predictably went 0-9. Even though Djokovic was in reasonably good form in ‘09 and especially ‘08, that’s a distinct surface advantage to go along with the form advantage that allowed Nadal to run up the score.
4.The 2015-16 H2H vulturing came somewhat close to evening things up, but important to note that “only” 4 of the 7 matches occurred on Djokovic’s best surface (sounding like double standards, but no…with HC making up 65% of tour events, that is not disproportionate like the previous example), where he’d be a heavy favourite even w/both in good form. Rome ‘16 is often disingenuously lumped in with their other three matches, even though neither were in great form that CC season and both snagged 1 Clay masters title, with Rafa adding a Barca title to boot).
Thoughts on where I bottled this analysis?
Edit: noticed my poll title was kind of misleading. What I meant by whom it favours more is which player benefited more from external factors like age and surface distribution (e.g if you vote Djokovic, you would think Nadal would have performed better if the circumstances were ‘fairer’).
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