Is Thiem finally ready to take on Nadal at the FO?

[Micheal Federer]

he should be ready to take it to him at the FO. even though the FO is quite different from the AO, I think now he has broken the mental barrier, he would be able to take it to Nadal at the FO if they meet this year. especially if their meeting occurs before the final.

 

[RelentlessAttack]

Yeah I think this is probably the year

 

[Biggest3]

Roof closed, yes.I'd say that with the roof closed Djokovic has an even bigger chance to win especially if he dodges Thiem on his side.

 

[ibbi]

I think he was ready last year, conditions were against him. The roof is going to transform Roland Garros. Lots of people will like their chances this year I reckon.

 

[vladap]

erm...no

 

[Bianca007]

he should be ready to take it to him at the FO. even though the FO is quite different from the AO, I think now he has broken the mental barrier, he would be able to take it to Nadal at the FO if they meet this year. especially if their meeting occurs before the final.

Not sure. The problem Nadal had today which i predicted was as bounce was so low Thiem BH would hurt Nadal which it did.

At Roland Garros the high bounce negates the Thiem BH over 5 sets as Rafa can work it over.

Clearly Thiem is Nadals heir apparent. I suspect Rafa gets one more FO this year then Thiem wins a couple after.

 

[OldschoolKIaus]

Notre-Dame was just a test for someone's plan for burning down a roof, no?

 

[Sabrina]

Clay season is still a couple of months away. Many things could change by that time.

 

[vive le beau jeu !]

the whole planet is hoping so...

but if anyone else wants to denadalize the draw before thiem does, he'll be warmly welcome, of course
(yes, <insert the name of the nadal's 1st round opponent>, I'm looking at you!)

#ABTN #NoMoreCheating​

 

[MeatTornado]

I'll Believe it when I see it.

 

[robthai]

Lets see how clay season plays out. Too early to make any bold predictions.

 

[helterskelter]

Not if it's a warm, sunny day when they play. But as others have said the roof could be a game changer if the conditions are right.

 

[I Am Finnish]

Not yet

 

[40L0VE]

Thiem was beaten in straight sets in the 2018 by Nadal and also lost again in the 2019 final 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. When it's 4 sets and the last 2 sets are a dominating 6-1, 6-1 it's really not even close. So I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[weakera]

Maybe. Nadal will fight until the death for his last best chance at 20 though, so Dominic won't be the hungrier one like he seemed to be today.

 

[StrongRule]

Maybe. Nadal will fight until the death for his last best chance at 20 though, so Dominic won't be the hungrier one like he seemed to be today.

You want to say Nadal had less motivation in AO of all places? I don't believe that.

 

[Tiki-Taka]

I think Nadal can deny him again this year, but after that he won't be able to...

Wouldn't rule out Djokovic at Roland Garros either.

 

[weakera]

You want to say Nadal had less motivation in AO of all places? I don't believe that.

Of course he had less motivation at a slam he wasn't likely to win anyway with Djokovic looming. How incredibly dense are you?

 

[Goof]

Depends on how the net cords fall.

But for seriously, RG is different. Rafa still wins there, UNLESS: facing Thiem and Djokovic back to back there would be brutal. I still think Rafa would pull it off with that draw. But it would be much tougher.

 

[40L0VE]

Look at the slam win-loss stats from Wiki

AO : 61 - 13
FO : 93 - 02
Wi : 53 - 12
UO : 64 - 11

At the non-clay slams he's losing at least 5 times more often. Look at the numbers see how much a difference clay makes, it's night and day. He needs massive, massive decline on clay before he's any where near as beatable as he is at the other slams. Taking account of how well he's looked at this years Aus Open I don't see that massive x 2 decline on clay anytime soon. I know much/anything can happen to a player in a short period of time even so I can't see a cliff edge drop happening.

 

[Breakpointerer]

Any year now...

 

[oldmanfan]

he should be ready to take it to him at the FO. even though the FO is quite different from the AO, I think now he has broken the mental barrier, he would be able to take it to Nadal at the FO if they meet this year. especially if their meeting occurs before the final.

I think he was ready last year... until he was forced to play 4-days-in-a-row. I hear they have a roof now, so that won't happen again.

 

[Roo]

Yes. He should have beaten him twice already.

 

[oldmanfan]

Also, inb4 Thiem deNadalize the draw and loses to Fedr in 4 in the finals .

 

[oldmanfan]

Thiem was beaten in straight sets in the 2018 by Nadal and also lost again in the 2019 final 6-3, 5-7, 6-1, 6-1. When it's 4 sets and the last 2 sets are a dominating 6-1, 6-1 it's really not even close. So I'll believe it when I see it.

Did you even watch the RG19 quarters, semis, and finals? Including the finals, Thiem played 4 days in a row. The 61 61 3rd & 4th set reflects that. Thiem was running on fumes against a well-rested Nadl.

 

[Pheasant]

I'd love to see a Rafa/Thiem RG final. I think that Thiem would have a decent shot(maybe 30%) of taking out Rafa. Thiem now knows that he can beat him in a slam. Granted, this is Rafa on clay. But Thiem keeps improving at RG.


2016: made semi, then won only 7 games vs Djoker
2017: made semi, then won 7 games against the clay GOAT
2018: made final, then won 9 games against the clay GOAT
2019: made final, then won a set against the clay GOAT

This is slow but steady improvement.

Thiem racked up some big wins in 2019 and now 2020.
2019 IW: Took out Fed in a tough 3-setter for the title. Fed didn't drop a set until he got to that final. Thiem played great.
2019 RG: He took out Djoker in the semis.
2019 ATP tourney: He beat Djoker and Fed in this tourney. He also took out the defending champ Zverev in the semis.
2020 AO: He took out Nadal.

What's next for this kid? I cannot wait to find out! I'm a fan. I like this kid a lot. He really respects the players before him and people in general.

 

[kevaninho]

Well, whos to say that Thiem will be better this year on clay?

Nevermind the fact that Nadal owns him at RG, everyone is jumping to conclusions based on a match on a HC.

Thiem was playing great on clay, apparently , the last 2 years he faced Nadal, and came up short.

Theres a huge difference beating him at the AO, taking him close at the USO, and beating him at RG LOL

 

[kevaninho]

I think he was ready last year... until he was forced to play 4-days-in-a-row. I hear they have a roof now, so that won't happen again.

Embarrassing statement.... ' forced '

 

[D.Nalby12]

No. Not this year again.

 

[Shaolin]

No he will still lose to Nadal at RG.

No one has any chance against Nadal at RG besides Nole.

 

[natalia]

the whole planet is hoping so...

but if anyone else wants to denadalize the draw before thiem does, he'll be warmly welcome, of course
(yes, <insert the name of the nadal's 1st round opponent>, I'm looking at you!)

#ABTN #NoMoreCheating​

Denadalizing tennis alltogether would be better, I say. Once and forever.

 

[Krish0608]

You want to say Nadal had less motivation in AO of all places? I don't believe that.

RG is where he is fully charged up and motivated every season.

 

[BGod]

If Nadal loses in 2020 I'd bet $250 he'd win 2021.

The question is Thiem or Novak and Novak might just be hungrier.

 

[oldmanfan]

Embarrassing statement.... ' forced '

You do realize that Djokr should've been DQ'd in the SF for straight up walking off the court before the umpire said anything right? I'm not talking about the 'decision' used to cover it up that was later released by the tourney. I'm referring to Djokr packing his bags and walking off the court without permission. Or did you think someone ranked 80-100 would get away with the same action? AND have the tourney refund the tickets for that session? Fedr/Nadl/Thiem, the women SFs all played thru the sandstorm, but Djokr is exempt? Djokr flexed his muscle there, and Guy Forget caved.

There was plenty of time to finish the match that day, thus either Djokr or Thiem would've had 1 day of rest before the finals. So yes, Thiem was 'forced' to play 4 days in a row.

 

[kevaninho]

You do realize that Djokr should've been DQ'd in the SF for straight up walking off the court before the umpire said anything right? I'm not talking about the 'decision' used to cover it up that was later released by the tourney. I'm referring to Djokr packing his bags and walking off the court without permission. Or did you think someone ranked 80-100 would get away with the same action? AND have the tourney refund the tickets for that session? Fedr/Nadl/Thiem, the women SFs all played thru the sandstorm, but Djokr is exempt? Djokr flexed his muscle there, and Guy Forget caved.

There was plenty of time to finish the match that day, thus either Djokr or Thiem would've had 1 day of rest before the finals. So yes, Thiem was 'forced' to play 4 days in a row.

No one 'forces' him to be a professional tennis player. So hes not 'forced' to do anything ... LOL get a grip.

 

[victorcruz]

Yes after all, Rafa is but a humble fisherman

 

[oldmanfan]

No one 'forces' him to be a professional tennis player. So hes not 'forced' to do anything ... LOL get a grip.

Semantics. Like you said, he's a pro. Of course he'd play a slam finals. But the situation was forced on him. I guess you want Thiem to NOT play the finals of a slam? How would you feel if that was Nadl in Thiem's shoes.

 

[weakera]

Look at the slam win-loss stats from Wiki

AO : 61 - 13
FO : 93 - 02
Wi : 53 - 12
UO : 64 - 11

At the non-clay slams he's losing at least 5 times more often. Look at the numbers see how much a difference clay makes, it's night and day. He needs massive, massive decline on clay before he's any where near as beatable as he is at the other slams. Taking account of how well he's looked at this years Aus Open I don't see that massive x 2 decline on clay anytime soon. I know much/anything can happen to a player in a short period of time even so I can't see a cliff edge drop happening.

Interesting post. And in my opinion Dominic was even lucky to get a set in '19. Mini lapse from Rafa and then sets 3 and 4 were beatdown city.

 

[Tennis_Hands]

Thiem to be in the "opposite" half of the draw at RG.

You heard it here first.

The potential SF pairings

Djokovic Thiem
Federer/Zverev Nadal

 

[weakera]

Thiem to be in the "opposite" half of the draw at RG.

You heard it here first.

The potential SF pairings

Djokovic Thiem
Federer/Zverev Nadal

Medvedev may well push Federer out of the top 4 by then. Roger needs some sunshine points.

 

[40L0VE]

Interesting post. And in my opinion Dominic was even lucky to get a set in '19. Mini lapse from Rafa and then sets 3 and 4 were beatdown city.

Anyone who looks up the stats will realise just how big the difference is. In non-clay slams a lot of players have beaten him even when there's nothing wrong with Nadal. Even when Nadal makes silly mistakes or 'chokes' off clay I don't count that as something wrong with him, it's more a sign of how less confident his of winning off clay.

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

There’s quite a lot of gap in quality and clutchness that needs to be bridged for Nadal to be beaten at RG by anyone. Even Thiem. Roof may help who knows.


We’ve said this stuff for 3 years straight now after Nadal loses at AO. The only thing this might have done is help Thiem’s mentality a bit.

But you need a lot more than that to beat Rafa at RG. He’s still the prohibitive favorite.

 

[Djokovic_is_the_best#1]

Nadal could lose RG if these 3 things happen
1) Bad weather so roof on
2) Scheduling favours other rivals
3) Thiem lands in nadals half

If nadal has to beat Thiem and Djoker back to back in this scenario he might just lose RG.

 

[TearTheRoofOff]

No one 'forces' him to be a professional tennis player. So hes not 'forced' to do anything ... LOL get a grip.

When in doubt, take a word to it's literal extreme to make a point devoid of all pragmatism.

 

[weakera]

There’s quite a lot of gap in quality and clutchness that needs to be bridged for Nadal to be beaten at RG by anyone. Even Thiem. Roof may help who knows.


We’ve said this stuff for 3 years straight now after Nadal loses at AO. The only thing this might have done is help Thiem’s mentality a bit.

But you need a lot more than that to beat Rafa at RG. He’s still the prohibitive favorite.

Yeah last year it was Chatrier being rebuilt that was going to make a difference. Ultimately until he loses he's going to be favored.

 

[Federer and Del Potro]

Yeah last year it was Chatrier being rebuilt that was going to make a difference. Ultimately until he loses he's going to be favored.

Plus it’s not like last night was a blowout. Few big points go the other way it’s nadal in 3 or 4 .

Those big points even harder to take off him on clay

 

[BeatlesFan]

Clay season is still a couple of months away. Many things could change by that time.

Nadal's clay season in 2019 was poor by his incredibly lofty standards. Even Fogmeister beat him in the semis of one of Rafa's pet events in MC. He still easily won the FO.

I guess I'll believe it when I see it. Thiem or Medvedev may be physically ready to do it, but mentally beating Rafa on Chatrier is the hardest task in tennis. Thiem could beat Nadal in MC, Madrid and Rome, but that isn't Chatrier.

 

[weakera]

Plus it’s not like last night was a blowout. Few big points go the other way it’s nadal in 3 or 4 .

Those big points even harder to take off him on clay

If Nadal converts 5-3 40-30 first set he could have won in 3.

 

[tudwell]

Look at the slam win-loss stats from Wiki

AO : 61 - 13
FO : 93 - 02
Wi : 53 - 12
UO : 64 - 11

At the non-clay slams he's losing at least 5 times more often. Look at the numbers see how much a difference clay makes, it's night and day. He needs massive, massive decline on clay before he's any where near as beatable as he is at the other slams. Taking account of how well he's looked at this years Aus Open I don't see that massive x 2 decline on clay anytime soon. I know much/anything can happen to a player in a short period of time even so I can't see a cliff edge drop happening.

I don't think it quite works that way, myself. Nadal's numbers on clay are ridiculous, but even a slight decline opens up all kinds of doors for other players. He wasn't awful against Soderling, for example. A little flat, lacking in intensity, not getting the best depth on the ball – but he wasn't awful. He wasn't spraying unforced errors everywhere or incapable of moving and playing defense. He was a little flat against a redlining Soderling and so he went home. If he played a sub-par match like that against Thiem, I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see Thiem win. Nadal doesn't have to fall to 2015 levels to be beaten at the French.

 

[weakera]

I don't think it quite works that way, myself. Nadal's numbers on clay are ridiculous, but even a slight decline opens up all kinds of doors for other players. He wasn't awful against Soderling, for example. A little flat, lacking in intensity, not getting the best depth on the ball – but he wasn't awful. He wasn't spraying unforced errors everywhere or incapable of moving and playing defense. He was a little flat against a redlining Soderling and so he went home. If he played a sub-par match like that against Thiem, I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see Thiem win. Nadal doesn't have to fall to 2015 levels to be beaten at the French.

Very reasonable post.