Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Nadal, ATP Cup final rubber, 2020

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic (Serbia) beat Rafael Nadal (Spain) 6-2, 7-6(4) in an ATP Cup final rubber, 2020 on hard court in Sydney, Australia

The result tied the match at 1-1. Djokovic would partner Viktor Troicki to win the doubles rubber over Pablo Carreno Busta and Feliciano Lopez to win the event for Serbia. This was the first edition of the tournament. Nadal was ranked #1, Djokovic #2

Djokovic won 75 points, Nadal 59

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (49/64) 77%
- 1st serve points won (41/49) 84%
- 2nd serve points won (9/15) 60%
- Aces 12
- Double Faults 2
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (23/64) 36%

Nadal....
- 1st serve percentage (51/70) 73%
- 1st serve points won (39/51) 76%
- 2nd serve points won (6/19) 32%
- Aces 5
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (20/70) 29%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 52%
- to Body 2%

Nadal served...
- to FH 49%
- to BH 43%
- to Body 7%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 47 (30 FH, 17 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 BH)
- 15 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (3 FH, 2 BH), including 1 runaround FH
- 10 Forced (5 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (47/67) 70%

Nadal made...
- 39 (18 FH, 21 BH), including 2 runaround FHs
- 11 Errors, comprising...
- 6 Unforced (1 FH, 5 BH)
- 5 Forced (2 FH, 3 BH)
- Return Rate (39/62) 63%

Break Points
Djokovic 2/8 (4 games)
Nadal 0/5 (1 game)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 25 (13 FH, 11 BH, 1 BHV)
Nadal 12 (3 FH, 5 BH, 4 FHV)

Djokovic's FHs - 2 cc, 4 dtl (1 pass - a net chord flicker), 5 inside-out, 2 inside-in
- BHs - 4 cc (1 return, 1 pass at net), 4 dtl (1 pass), 3 drop shots

Nadal's FHs - 2 inside-out, 1 inside-in/cc
- BHs - 2 cc passes, 3 dtl (1 pass)

- 3 from serve-volley points - 2 first volleys, 1 second volleys (all FHVs)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 25
- 18 Unforced (10 FH, 8 BH)
- 7 Forced (5 FH, 2 BH)... with 1 FH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 50

Nadal 24
- 15 Unforced (8 FH, 7 BH)
- 9 Forced (5 FH, 1 BH, 1 FH1/2V, 1 BHV, 1 BHOH)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.3

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 6/10 (60%) at net, including...
- 0/1 serve-volleying, a 1st serve
---
- 1/1 forced back

Nadal was...
- 11/18 (61%) at net, including...
- 7/10 (70%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves

Match Report
This match is a study in the difference between the two players on this surface and all of it favours Djokovic

- Djokovic moves further and further forward, just as Nadal falls further and further back around the baseline
- Djokovic hits with depth, Nadal plops balls of middling length
- Djokovic serve wide and damagingly, Nadal more often serves into Djokovic’s swing zone
- Djokovic thumps returns deeps, Nadal puts them back in play

They look like two different classes of players out there - Djoko large and in charge and dominant, Nadal hanging onto his serve. Djokovic with 25 winners, 25 errors (18 UE, 7 FE) - top class numbers, Nadal with 12 winners, 24 errors (15 UE, 9 FE), against back drop of Djoko leading unreturneds 36% to 29% (and having 1 fewer double fault)

Despite all that its not a one sided match, but Djokovic’s game is much more suited to excelling in the quick conditions as it ends up doing

It is a one sided first set. Everything as described above, plus Nadal loose with the errors. 6-2 in quick times. But it’s a competitive second set. Nadal shaves back on the errors, and serve-volleys some behind good body serves to hold about as comfortably as Djoko, whose level doesn’t change. Things go to the tiebreak where Djoko prevails

Other points of interest are
- Djoko serving particularly well, with both serves
- Nadal’s movements and defence being average
- and re-emphasising - the related points of depth (Djoko excellent, Nadal average at best) and court position (Djoko always creeping forward, Nadal always drifting back)

2 Part Match
Why’s the first set one sided? And what changes to make for equality in the second?

In first set, difference between serves is particularly large. Djoko serves excellently all match, but is at best in first set. Coupled with Nadal’s error proneness extending to the return, his double faulting a bit (doesn’t end up costing him anything, but adds to perception of how much he’s struggling) and Nadal tanking the serve-out (love hold to 4 freebies - a return UE and 3 aces Nadal barely moves for), makes for blow out

In first set -
Winners - Djoko 8, Nadal 3
Errors forced - Djoko 3, Nadal 2
UEs - Djoko 8 (6 FH, 2 BH), Nadal 8 (3 FH, 5 BH)
Unreturneds - Djoko 50%, Nadal 20%

… with net approachs Djoko 3, Nadal 3 (1 serve-volley)

Freebie cushion alone would seal result, all things being equal. They’re not equal

On top of getting so many more returns in play, Djoko’s deep returns peg Nadal back, from where rallies develop as with Djoko gaining in court position, Nadal losing. Djoko’s depth is key in this - Nadal is, if not forced, highly encouraged to fall back. There are matches where Nadal willingly falls back and gets taken to cleaners (and others where he falls back and out-defends his opponents), though this type of thing isn’t common around this period. But this is different. Djoko lands firm hits close to the baseline at will and Nadal understandably falls back, Djoko moves forward and continues with the clinical hitting and Nadal falls back some more and so on… top class point progression from Djoko

Winner counts speak for itself. And Nadal also giving up the UEs fairly readily. He’s in reactive position most of the time when he does, but staying steady is beyond crucial for him, given the playing dynamics and he fails at that

In second set -
Winners - Djoko 17, Nadal 9
Errors Forced - Djoko 6, Nadal 5
UEs - Djoko 10 (4 FH, 6 BH), Nadal 7 (5 FH, 2 BH)
Unreturneds - Djoko 30%, Nadal 35%

… with net approaches Djoko 7 (1 serve-volley), Nadal 15 (9 serve-volleys)

Nadal pulling up his consistency socks, on both return and off the ground. Still doesn’t return with any authority but at least he’s putting ball in play and leaving Djoko some room to mess up attacking (which he doesn’t). And while depth and court position matters don’t change much either, Nadal staying firm and not handing over points to Djoko at least, again, inviting him to mess up (which he doesn’t)

The serve-volleying gives Nadals’ game teeth. He has just 1 FH winner for the set, but counters Djoko’s strong FHs with some attacking BH line shots, but it’s the serve-volley that gives him quick points. He’s 7/9 serve-volleying, mostly behind body serves (any serve to the side is apt to be clinically thumped, as ever, Nadal’s tactical sense is good), and it bumps his freebies above Djoko’s too

 

[Waspsting]

Still, Djoko looks more in command of things. Still hitting deep as matter of course, still encouraging Nadal to fall back (Nadal’s little slower to oblige, but would be unwise to not to beyond a point), still drawing enough short balls he can go for winner on. The winner and errors forced figures are accurate indicators of who’s more in charge of things

Looks and results are different things. Statistically, its an even set (if anything Nadal with negligible razor edge). No breaks and going into ‘breaker, Djoko’s served 29 points, Nadal 28
Break points - Nadal 5, Djoko 2 - both having them in a solitary game

Trailing as he is in aggression - as shown by winner and errors forced counts - to gain overall advantage, Nadal would need to have consistency advantage. The 3 point one has on UEs is not only not only nowhere close to enough, but its breakdown is worst possible one for him

Match long UE breakdown (this doesn’t change much by parts of match)
- Defensive - Nadal 1
- Neutral - Djoko 6, Nadal 10
- Attacking - Djoko 6, Nadal 1
- Winner Attempts - Djoko 6, Nadal 3

The neutral dynamics are backbone of virtually all baseline matches. Here, its loaded in Djoko leading, Nadal reacting direction (which goes back to Djoko’s easy depth and resulting court position and how its accentuated as rally goes on)

Djoko’s neutral advantage lies in context of his shots being pressuring and leading into him attacking. As far as assessing quality of Nadal’s showing goes, that means Nadal’s lot of 10 neutral UEs are relatively tough, so less cause for discredit to him. As far as Nadal’s prospects of winning goes, as bad as it gets… he’s losing more points than he’s winning, while giving up ground

Even when exchanges are fully neutral (as opposed to Djoko leading, Nadal reacting), its Djoko hitting from closer to baseline

Match long, winner Attempt UE advantage for Nadal is no relief, since Djoko has twice the winners as well as errors (he leads winners 25-12). That would vary some by set, so Nadal gaining some lost ground back by being more efficient with his kill shots than Djoko in competitive part

In this case, that’s another way of saying Nadal volleys well. 4/12 winners are volleys, 1/25 of Djoko’s are. Obviously, missing kil shots is more likely from the back than the front. Good move by Nadal to move to net, particularly serve-volley. Its not at all an obvious move, given how well Djoko returns, but beats the alternative of being pushed back and leaving fate in Djoko’s hands

Attacking UEs aren’t too important. Nadal’s rarely able to get on attack from the back. Djoko’s 6 attacking UEs for forcing 9 errors from Nadal has room for improvement, but these same attacking shots set up all kinds of winners too

The other notable point is difference in serve-return complex. Djoko serves excellently all match. Good pace and wide direction for first serves and a toned down version of that on second serves. Nadal returning from well back is moved around to reach ball (and his movements aren’t particularly good)

24% first serves are aces or 12 of them. Nadal has 5 at 10%

By contrast, much of Nadal’s serving is within Djoko’s reach. And gets clinically bopped back deep. Just normal stuff from Djoko

Finally, Nadal’s movements are but average. They’d have to be very good to handle what he’s tasked with. As is, much of action looks like Djoko having target practice for winners after moving Nadal wherever he wants to move him to set up

Match Progression
Djokovic skates through the first set. Gets a whole bunch of freebies, returns deep with thorough comfort and pushes Nadal back bit by bit with depth in baseline rallies, before stepping in to finish him off any which way he wants. He’s even successful with drop shots. Nadal’s a little off in making returns and his shots lack force. ‘Not short’ is as good as they get and way Djoko plays, anything ‘not deep’ is meat and drink to him

Break starts proceedings, with Djoko casually commanding the rallies. Having saved 2 break points, Nadal serve-volleys and is forced into FH1/2V error, and he misses a slice on the third break point

Nadal does get to deuce in the second game, with a BH dtl pass winner starring, but Djoko’s not in much trouble. He leads the game 40-15 before a missed FH dtl winner attempt and the pass winner gets things to deuce, before Nadal misses a pair of returns he’s a little slow dealing with

Almost throwaway game from Djoko to follow as Nadal holds to love - 4 attacking or more ground UEs on the trot (2 drop shots, 2 line FHs)

Nadal does his best to get broken next time of asking with 3 double faults but manages to save 2 break points and hold 10 point game, but Djoko wins 10/12 remaining points in the set to finish (2 love holds sandwiching a break to 30). Serve out is 4 unreturned serves (3 aces) that Nadal makes little effort to reach. He isn’t happy with the crowd, who are fully behind Djokovic

Good change from Nadal in using serve-volley in second set. And smart to use it in conjunction with body serves as anything in Djoko’s reach tends to get easily bopped back with heat. Djoko’s not unduly troubled to get out of the way of the body serves, but isn’t able to return with much force against them and Nadal has a comfy time knocking away volleys. Nadal also tightens up his game from the back, and at least doesn’t give away points via UEs

Djoko’s still in charge of action though in similar way to earlier. Deep shots push Nadal back even as Djoko moves forward to command play. But freebies, serve-volleys and consistency keep Nadal holding comfortably

Djoko’s down 0-40 at 2-3 on back of a smashing BH cc pass winner from Nadal and a couple of ground UEs. FH dtl winner, BH cc winner and strongly forced return error get him to deuce. He aces away 2 other break points before going on to hold, finishing with a FH cc winner set up by a strong serve

4 winners in a row in game 8 - Djoko with BH drop shot, FH dtl, Nadal with another BH cc pass and Djoko with a third ball FH inside-in from near the service line

With tiebreak on horizon, its Nadal’s turn to sweat as he serves for 6-5. He’s down 15-40, with Djoko hitting a net-to-net passing winner and winning a drop-shot related rally that gets both players to net again

Very bold stuff from Nadal to come out of the hole. He takes charge of first break point with big FHs and comes in to finish with a FHV winner from little under the net that just catches the line. And next point, smacks a BH dtl winner from routine position. This is the type of stuff he hasn’t been upto doing all match. Games not over and a BH cc return winner from Djoko keeps it alive until serve-volleys and net play gets Nadal over the line

Tiebreak. Djoko double faults - just his second of the match - to put Nadal up 2-1. A rare, not well punched volley serve-volleying from Nadal leaves Djoko with good look on pass that he nails FH dtl for winner to even things up. And a controlled, BH dtl winner from Nadal after that to keep things on serve

Djoko gains decisive mini by fixing Nadal to the corner with a couple powerful BH cc’s before dispatching 1 dtl for a winner to move ahead 5-4. Nadal blinks in a long rally with a BH slice after that, and misses a runaround FH attacking shot to end the match

Summing up, excellent match from Djokovic, who’s on point in all areas. Serves particularly well, returns with customary easy depth and commands baseline action off both sides. Deep shots encourage Nadal further and further back, as Djokovic moves further and further forward to take charge and his finishing shots are on the mark

Nadal’s a little off on the return at start of match and a little loose off the ground as he’s swept aside in first set. He gets it together after that - still can’t return too effectively against well directed wide serves, but doesn’t gives away points at least on the second shot - and cuts back on the loose errors from the back, while effectively adding serve-volleys to hurt his opponent

Easy first set, statistically even second, with Djokovic still looking more in control of himself, more in command of action and with more sustainable game to fittingly take that one too

@jl809 - thoughts?

 

[NoleFam]

The second set was pretty close. Nadal hung on and I think had all those bps in that 2nd set. Djokovic never got broken though in this match and this was one of his more aggressive matches. Was averaging 84 mph on the forehand.

 

[jl809]

Still, Djoko looks more in command of things. Still hitting deep as matter of course, still encouraging Nadal to fall back (Nadal’s little slower to oblige, but would be unwise to not to beyond a point), still drawing enough short balls he can go for winner on. The winner and errors forced figures are accurate indicators of who’s more in charge of things

Looks and results are different things. Statistically, its an even set (if anything Nadal with negligible razor edge). No breaks and going into ‘breaker, Djoko’s served 29 points, Nadal 28
Break points - Nadal 5, Djoko 2 - both having them in a solitary game

Trailing as he is in aggression - as shown by winner and errors forced counts - to gain overall advantage, Nadal would need to have consistency advantage. The 3 point one has on UEs is not only not only nowhere close to enough, but its breakdown is worst possible one for him

Match long UE breakdown (this doesn’t change much by parts of match)
- Defensive - Nadal 1
- Neutral - Djoko 6, Nadal 10
- Attacking - Djoko 6, Nadal 1
- Winner Attempts - Djoko 6, Nadal 3

The neutral dynamics are backbone of virtually all baseline matches. Here, its loaded in Djoko leading, Nadal reacting direction (which goes back to Djoko’s easy depth and resulting court position and how its accentuated as rally goes on)

Djoko’s neutral advantage lies in context of his shots being pressuring and leading into him attacking. As far as assessing quality of Nadal’s showing goes, that means Nadal’s lot of 10 neutral UEs are relatively tough, so less cause for discredit to him. As far as Nadal’s prospects of winning goes, as bad as it gets… he’s losing more points than he’s winning, while giving up ground

Even when exchanges are fully neutral (as opposed to Djoko leading, Nadal reacting), its Djoko hitting from closer to baseline

Match long, winner Attempt UE advantage for Nadal is no relief, since Djoko has twice the winners as well as errors (he leads winners 25-12). That would vary some by set, so Nadal gaining some lost ground back by being more efficient with his kill shots than Djoko in competitive part

In this case, that’s another way of saying Nadal volleys well. 4/12 winners are volleys, 1/25 of Djoko’s are. Obviously, missing kil shots is more likely from the back than the front. Good move by Nadal to move to net, particularly serve-volley. Its not at all an obvious move, given how well Djoko returns, but beats the alternative of being pushed back and leaving fate in Djoko’s hands

Attacking UEs aren’t too important. Nadal’s rarely able to get on attack from the back. Djoko’s 6 attacking UEs for forcing 9 errors from Nadal has room for improvement, but these same attacking shots set up all kinds of winners too

The other notable point is difference in serve-return complex. Djoko serves excellently all match. Good pace and wide direction for first serves and a toned down version of that on second serves. Nadal returning from well back is moved around to reach ball (and his movements aren’t particularly good)

24% first serves are aces or 12 of them. Nadal has 5 at 10%

By contrast, much of Nadal’s serving is within Djoko’s reach. And gets clinically bopped back deep. Just normal stuff from Djoko

Finally, Nadal’s movements are but average. They’d have to be very good to handle what he’s tasked with. As is, much of action looks like Djoko having target practice for winners after moving Nadal wherever he wants to move him to set up

Match Progression
Djokovic skates through the first set. Gets a whole bunch of freebies, returns deep with thorough comfort and pushes Nadal back bit by bit with depth in baseline rallies, before stepping in to finish him off any which way he wants. He’s even successful with drop shots. Nadal’s a little off in making returns and his shots lack force. ‘Not short’ is as good as they get and way Djoko plays, anything ‘not deep’ is meat and drink to him

Break starts proceedings, with Djoko casually commanding the rallies. Having saved 2 break points, Nadal serve-volleys and is forced into FH1/2V error, and he misses a slice on the third break point

Nadal does get to deuce in the second game, with a BH dtl pass winner starring, but Djoko’s not in much trouble. He leads the game 40-15 before a missed FH dtl winner attempt and the pass winner gets things to deuce, before Nadal misses a pair of returns he’s a little slow dealing with

Almost throwaway game from Djoko to follow as Nadal holds to love - 4 attacking or more ground UEs on the trot (2 drop shots, 2 line FHs)

Nadal does his best to get broken next time of asking with 3 double faults but manages to save 2 break points and hold 10 point game, but Djoko wins 10/12 remaining points in the set to finish (2 love holds sandwiching a break to 30). Serve out is 4 unreturned serves (3 aces) that Nadal makes little effort to reach. He isn’t happy with the crowd, who are fully behind Djokovic

Good change from Nadal in using serve-volley in second set. And smart to use it in conjunction with body serves as anything in Djoko’s reach tends to get easily bopped back with heat. Djoko’s not unduly troubled to get out of the way of the body serves, but isn’t able to return with much force against them and Nadal has a comfy time knocking away volleys. Nadal also tightens up his game from the back, and at least doesn’t give away points via UEs

Djoko’s still in charge of action though in similar way to earlier. Deep shots push Nadal back even as Djoko moves forward to command play. But freebies, serve-volleys and consistency keep Nadal holding comfortably

Djoko’s down 0-40 at 2-3 on back of a smashing BH cc pass winner from Nadal and a couple of ground UEs. FH dtl winner, BH cc winner and strongly forced return error get him to deuce. He aces away 2 other break points before going on to hold, finishing with a FH cc winner set up by a strong serve

4 winners in a row in game 8 - Djoko with BH drop shot, FH dtl, Nadal with another BH cc pass and Djoko with a third ball FH inside-in from near the service line

With tiebreak on horizon, its Nadal’s turn to sweat as he serves for 6-5. He’s down 15-40, with Djoko hitting a net-to-net passing winner and winning a drop-shot related rally that gets both players to net again

Very bold stuff from Nadal to come out of the hole. He takes charge of first break point with big FHs and comes in to finish with a FHV winner from little under the net that just catches the line. And next point, smacks a BH dtl winner from routine position. This is the type of stuff he hasn’t been upto doing all match. Games not over and a BH cc return winner from Djoko keeps it alive until serve-volleys and net play gets Nadal over the line

Tiebreak. Djoko double faults - just his second of the match - to put Nadal up 2-1. A rare, not well punched volley serve-volleying from Nadal leaves Djoko with good look on pass that he nails FH dtl for winner to even things up. And a controlled, BH dtl winner from Nadal after that to keep things on serve

Djoko gains decisive mini by fixing Nadal to the corner with a couple powerful BH cc’s before dispatching 1 dtl for a winner to move ahead 5-4. Nadal blinks in a long rally with a BH slice after that, and misses a runaround FH attacking shot to end the match

Summing up, excellent match from Djokovic, who’s on point in all areas. Serves particularly well, returns with customary easy depth and commands baseline action off both sides. Deep shots encourage Nadal further and further back, as Djokovic moves further and further forward to take charge and his finishing shots are on the mark

Nadal’s a little off on the return at start of match and a little loose off the ground as he’s swept aside in first set. He gets it together after that - still can’t return too effectively against well directed wide serves, but doesn’t gives away points at least on the second shot - and cuts back on the loose errors from the back, while effectively adding serve-volleys to hurt his opponent

Easy first set, statistically even second, with Djokovic still looking more in control of himself, more in command of action and with more sustainable game to fittingly take that one too

@jl809 - thoughts?

Oh my god! I thought you wouldn't do this match, hence my own writeup, but am very glad you have. Will have a proper read in a bit

 

[Rafa4LifeEver]

Had Rafa maintained his lead in the second set TB, this match would've turned around in a 3-set win for him. Djokovic's level was dropping while Rafa's was slowly rising.

 

[NoleFam]

Had Rafa maintained his lead in the second set TB, this match would've turned around in a 3-set win for him. Djokovic's level was dropping while Rafa's was slowly rising.

He only had a mini break lead at 2-1 which he quickly lost so that's hardly a significant lead.

 

[jl809]

Very nice. Glad to see consensus that Djoker himself played well even by his own standards here - a weird one where both fanbases can take some positives as he clearly demonstrated his superiority on the surface yet again, but for Nadal fans, Ned in meh form still finding a way to adapt to get into the contest (I didn’t pick up on the S&V which is an interesting one) against a well playing Djokovic on fast HC would have been a comfort … on a slower HC I would expect Nadal to have more time on defence and to set up his FH, but at the same time it would negate the S&V and also the near-servebotting which he crutched on in set 2

I doubt these guys will ever play on HC again, which is a shame really

 

[Waspsting]

I doubt these guys will ever play on HC again, which is a shame really

Shame for you and me sure, shame for Djokovic probably, but Nadal... I don't think he'll mind too much

They show a bunch of stats during this match, pertaining to the last 8 hard court matches the two have played. It ain't pretty reading from Nadal's point of view
He's broken serve twice in all that time. His first serve points won are about the same as Djokovic's second serve points won

Who knows? They might meet early in a tournament - rigged draw or otherwise. Doubt Nadal plays much on hard court next year