Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Simon, Australian Open fourth round, 2016

[Waspsting]

Novak Djokovic beat Gilles Simon 6-3, 6-7(1), 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 in the Australian Open fourth round, 2016 on hard court

Djokovic would go onto win the tournament, beating Andy Murray in the final for the second year in a row. It was his then record extending 6th title at the event. He had won Wimbledon and US Open the previous year and would go onto complete a non-calendar year Grand Slam by winning the French Open soon after. Simon was seeded 14th

Djokovic won 195 points, Simon 174

[Note: I’m missing 3 partial points -

Set 4, Game 3, Point 14 - a Djokovic first serve point that he won. Its likely directed to BH and unreturned (ace, service winner or return error - probably forced) but has not been marked in anyway, other than as Djokovic winning the point

Set 4, Game 3, Point 15 - Djokovic first serve point directed and returned to/by FH. Ending unknown

Set 4, Game 6, Point 1 - Unknown Simon serve point. Ending is recorded]

Serve Stats
Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (110/177) 62%
- 1st serve points won (77/110) 70%
- 2nd serve points won (37/67) 55%
- Aces 10 (1 second serve, 1 possibly not clean), Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 1
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (43/176) 24%

Simon...
- 1st serve percentage (126/191) 66%
- 1st serve points won (87/126) 69%
- 2nd serve points won (24/65) 37%
- ?? serve points won (0/1)
- Aces 2
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (26/192) 14%

Serve Patterns
Djokovic served...
- to FH 50%
- to BH 47%
- to Body 3%

Simon served...
- to FH 46%
- to BH 48%
- to Body 6%

Return Stats
Djokovic made...
- 162 (65 FH, 96 BH, 1 ??), including 1 runaround FH, 4 runaround BHs & 3 return-approaches
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 24 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 13 Forced (11 FH, 2 BH)
- Return Rate (162/188) 86%

Simon made...
- 132 (63 FH, 69 BH), including 3 runaround FHs
- 1 Winner (1 FH)
- 32 Errors, comprising...
- 11 Unforced (6 FH, 5 BH)
- 21 Forced (16 FH, 5 BH)
- Return Rate (132/175) 75%

Break Points
Djokovic 6/26 (13 games)
Simon 4/18 (8 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Djokovic 47 (25 FH, 13 BH, 4 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)
Simon 28 (13 FH, 12 BH, 2 BHV, 1 OH)

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (1 at net), 3 dtl, 2 dtl/inside-out, 10 inside-out, 5 inside-in (1 return) and 1 longline/inside-out
- BHs - 3 cc, 4 dtl (1 return), 2 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 2 drop shots (1 at net) and 1 running-down-drop-shot lob at net

- 2 from return-approach points (1 BHV, 1 OH)

Simon's FHs - 2 cc (1 pass), 4 dtl (1 at net), 4 inside-out, 1 longline at net and 2 net chord dribblers (1 return)
- BHs - 4 cc (1 at net), 6 dtl (4 passes), 1 drop shot and 1 running-down-drop shot cc pass (non-net)

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Djokovic 119
- 102 Unforced (51 FH, 50 BH, 1 FHV)
- 17 Forced (5 FH, 7 BH, 2 FHV, 3 BHV)
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 47.1

Simon 99
- 62 Unforced (32 FH, 30 BH)
- 37 Forced (21 FH, 15 BH, 1 OH)... with 3 FH running-down-drop-shot at net, 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net & the OH was a baseline shot on the bounce, flagrantly forced by an at net smash
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 43.1

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Djokovic was...
- 25/38 (66%) at net, with...
- 2/3 (67%) return-approaching

Simon was...
- 9/15 (60%) at net, with...
- 0/1 forced back

Match Report
This match is famous for Djokovic committing 100 unforced errors. Despite that, its not a bad match and despite the 4.5 hours of length and 5 sets, not too competitive either. Court is on slow side

Djoko’s not in much danger of losing, unlike, say the 5-setters he played with Stan Wawrinka at the hard court Slams. Always up by a set. Leads 5-1 in the 5th. He has command of play throughout - but having command and winning are 2 different things. Of the things that can come between it, 100 UEs qualify

(100 UEs is used figuratively here. I have him with 102 in play and 114 including returns and double faults)

And why isn’t it a bad match, despite record breaking UE figures? The rallies are competitive and long. There isn’t much sloppiness in the UEs. The neutral errors come after long exchanges, even the attacking and more ones don’t come quickly. Certainly not lively, but not bad either

It might not be a bad match, but it isn’t a very good one either. Play is dull, if not a push-fest. Its taken out of push-fest category by Djoko commanding play - being hard hitting, stepping up, overpowering, moving to net to finish - attacking, in a word. He’s not very good at constructing it though and makes boatloads errors trying

Djoko has the better serve. His is good, Sim’s is ordinary at best. Just 2 aces from 126 first serves attest to the latter (Djoko has 11, including a service winner from 110). Djoko occasionally spontaneously plays runaround BH returns against first serves

Djoko has the better better return. Usual lot of clinical powerful and/or deep returns from him. Rarely, when driven by frustration and/or nothing-to-lose mentality, more than that - pointed, point ending aggression on the shot. Sim returns steadily and consistently, not giving much away - good enough

Then they rally. Its almost entirely a baseline match. Sim’s showing could be the poster for ‘comes to net only to shake hands’. He’s at net 15 times - many of those to deal with drop shots. Djoko doesn’t come in much, but has plenty of chances to with his hitting advantage and his choice not to is neither a bad one and is one of the more interesting implications of the match (and more broadly, the period)

Baseline rallies last long
They’re as close to 50-50 across wings as possible
Djoko more often leads, Sim reacts. Djoko playing from closer up and hitting harder while staying in neutral. But the error rate on that front is almost identical

So the advantage Djoko has from rallies is 1 of force of shot, not blink-rate of errors. He’s not good at parleying that into attacking. Good enough at it to end up winning - he has his no shortage of moments with 47 winners and forcing 37 errors - but… 100 UEs

Few points of interest

Virtually identical breakdown of UEs across wings for both players
Djoko - 51 FH, 50 BH
Sim - 32 FH, 30 BH

Virtually identical neutral UE rate - Djoko has 48, Sim 49

Its on the attacking and more UEs that Djoko’s messy. He has 54, Sim 13

Breakdown of UEs
- Neutral - Djoko 48, Sim 49
- Attacking - Djoko 36, Sim 7
- Winner Attempts - Djoko 18, Sim 6

Djoko forcing 37 errors for 36 attacking UEs made is atrocious, by any standard. Sim’s actually showng much greater efficiency there by forcing 17 for his 7 attacking UEs. For that matter, Sim’s got the better of winner/winner attempt UEs too, though that’s bent a bit by much larger lot of his winners being passes and net chord dribblers

The gist of all this is -

- good, solid neutral rallying from both players. Long rallies, decent hitting. If your going to play neutrally, this is the way to do it. They play equally well so it cancels out
A bit more longline or/and blunt angled exchanges around middle of court than average, but largely, classic cc with occasional longline change-up dynamic. Djoko changing up rather more

- Djoko with more power and extra gear, so he can up the ante to attacking (Sim does very little of that). He’s poor at it

Biggest offender for Djoko are FH dtl’ish shots from around middle of court. FH dtl/inside-out or inside-out/dtl… shots not intended to go for winners or even necessarily force errors, but to open the court a bit, liven up action and are more likely to draw errors than stock cc shots. He misses these by the boatload

On the BH, he’s got his precious drop shots. Even for him, a bad day on the droppers for Djoko - he’s got a couple winners (1 of them at net) and forces 4 errors but misses 3-4 for every one of those (and also hits bad ones that Sim easily runs down and hits top spin putaway shots to at net)

(A more general point, if there’s one area where Djokovic, one of the smartest around, has been stubbornly foolish over the years, its with these drop shots. He’s played them since very beginning of his career and I can count on 1 hand the number of matches where he comes out net positive with it)

84 aggressively ended points to 54 attacking or more UEs isn't good. The attacking ones make up bulk. With those, its not just about errors forced foregone, but break in chain of attacking progression (and of course, losing the point). Still, he keeps faith in the chain and doesn’t go off into wild attacking play or going for winners from out of nowhere type stuff

 

[Waspsting]

The other curiosity is Djoko favouring BH returns to the extent he does. BH runaround return is a rare shot. He has 4 of them. They’re not attacking shots, so one imagines the purpose is just to get closer to center of court to start the rally. Sensible enough, but he doesn’t do the same in deuce court with FH (just 1 runaround FH return)

Sim serving conservatively and not too wide, with an even distribution (46% to FH, 48% to BH) and at a pace where Djoko’s able to react spontaneously to move over and play BHs against first serves rarely. If its about getting to middle of court, why not do the same with FH on other side?

In general, Djoko’s a very balanced returner, seemingly with no preference of wings. Relatively few runaround FH returns (as a rule of thumb, such players are either balanced or prefer BH returning), but he does indulge some. But out and out runaround BH returns is the stuff of players who very strongly prefer BH returning or wish to avoid FHs… not something one would ascribe to Djoko

If not justified, it is supported by stats for this match. Djoko’s return FEs -

- 11 FH, 2 BH (the UEs are virtually the same, 6 & 5), with Sim serving equally to both sides. Sim’s best serves are out wide to FH in deuce court largely explains that. More so than any substantial difference in Djoko’s 2 returns

Small curiousity. It doesn’t matter much - he returns the average serve with authority to 86% return rate, without trouble

Sim passing well does give food for thought with regard to best way to finish a point one’s in charge of from the back. Faltering from the back, Djoko flirts a little with coming forward behind powerful FH inside-outs. Some unlikely winning passes from Sim. He’s got 4 BH dtl winners - on the run, stretched out and against balls that are weighty enough to push him back on power alone

Djok with 5 volley FEs, to just 1 UE (the sole non-volley UE of the matches 164)

Sim’s showing is marked by the steadiness he’s known for. Solid returning, solid groundies. Matching a well-playing Djoko in neutral rallies is a feat. He’s doing more of the running and from further back. While neither player seems to unduly tire, he’s noticably the quicker one in last couple sets (before that, it’s a about equal, with Sim having more opportunity to show his court coverage)

BH looks better than the FH, which he plays with an uncomfortable looking bent arm. Prefers playing FHs closer to his body than orthodox. He gets into position for the FH that most players would consider slightly cramped. Both shots are steady though

He doesn’t have the power to progress from there. Can rarely push Djoko around the way Djoko can and does to him. And when he can, Djoko’s liable to make the difficult defensive ‘get’ anyway. He basically has to win points via Djoko UEs… doesn’t have the shot-making or persistent power or angles to end points aggressively, independent of Djoko being a tough guy to attack to begin with

@The Green Mile - would be interested in hearing your thoughts

Match Progression
Match starts normally, with the two players trading groundies, Djoko playing closer to baseline, sometimes overpowering Sim, moving him around a bit. The odd winner from Djoko from well up the court or finishing by coming to net. Sim’s second fiddle, endures a tough first hold and then is broken to love to go down 1-3

Then the grind begins. And it doesn’t stop for a long time. Djoko’s still closer to baseline, but not much difference. Sim’s still doing more of the moving, but not by much. Error rates are about even, games are long (there are 81 points in the set or 9 per game) and rallies even longer

Djoko’s FH dtl/inside-out or inside-out/dtl shots from around middle of court falters badly

Sim breaks back at once for 2-3. Remaining games last 10, 20, 6 and 16 points

Critically, Djoko breaks in the 6 pointer, but he’s the one that has to hold the 20 and 16 ones. Saves 4 break points the first time and 2 on the serve-out

Djoko serves 51 points in the set, Sim 30. Break points read Djoko 2/5, Sim 1/8 with both having them in 3 games. Basically, Djoko holding off Sim arduously from equality

By contrast, Djoko dominates the second set and get into return games at will, while being very safe on serve. He does tend to give up the errors after long rallies, allowing Sim to hang in

No breaks going into tiebreak. Djoko’s 0/11 (3 games) on break points, while his toughest hold is to 30 (once). Djoko’s served 29 points for his 6 holds, Sim 54

All that counts for squat 8 points later. Poor ‘breaker from Djoko, who makes 4 UEs in it. Sim shines with an uncharacterisitc BH cc winner to end a long rally - a great shot to a normal ball

Plain third set, with Djoko having better of things. He breaks to open and is broken to love awhile later - both games riddled with errors. Sim endures another tough hold and is finally broken to end it. The attempted FH drop shot error he makes in the game stands out like a sore thumb - very unlike his usual shot choices

The plainness continues to middle of the 4th set, with Djoko still looking a little better (though having a couple of tough holds). Sim though gives action a shot in the arm just then. Starts zipping about, going for (and making) point ending shots. He has 4 winners in a 12 point hold - FH inside-out, a 1-2 ending with a BH cc, a BH drop shot and an OH to end the game, after a particularly lively point shaped by a Djoko drop shot

Djoko, if not tired, looks less fresh. Over-eager, quick attacking errors gets him broken to leave Sim serving for set. Djoko plays with wanton aggression in it and as he tends to do, has some success with it. No break points, but game lasts 10 points. It’s a a horrendous BH drop shot winner attempt miss that breaks tension

Is Djoko tired? Disheartened? Frustrated? Playing possum?

Probably the last. Sim opens the decider with a FH dtl winner, but after that, Djoko takes charge to open up a 5-1 lead with 2 breaks. A BH running-down-drop-shot lob at net winner is the highlight of his showing, which is strong and commanding. This is what the whole match would look like but for Djoko’s attacking errors

Sim grabs a break back, but is tasked to consolidate, before Djoko serves out to love, finishing with a third ball BH dtl winner

Summing up, interesting if somewhat dull match. Djokovic has categorically stronger serve, returns with categorically greater heat and is just as steady trading regulation groundstrokes as his opponent, while having power advantage to up the ante if and when he wishes. Sounds like a mismatch and a 3, 3 & 2 job

It isn’t because Djokovic does a poor job of upping the ante and falters with a spate of unforced errors when he tries. Does well enough to keep his nose ahead, but it’s a long, long way from 3, 3 & 2

Steady showing from Simon, but he has little to hurt his opponent with and so needs Djokovic to mess up trying to hurt him to stay in the match. Djokovic obliges to the tune of a 102 unforced errors, which is still too few to override his advantages in serve, return and power of shot

Stats for the final between Djokovic and Andy Murray - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Murray, Australian Open final, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)
Stats for Djokovic’s semi-final with Roger Federer - Match Stats/Report - Djokovic vs Federer Australian Open semifinal, 2016 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

 

[The Green Mile]

Well, it's been over seven years since I watched it, I don't remember ever re-watching the whole thing again, other than maybe some highlights. For me, it was unironically match of the tournament, maybe alongside Murray vs Raonic SF. I remember the match thread at least , people had fun in that one.

I mainly remember that Djoko couldn't consistently find a way to finish off points, and was driven nuts by Simon's lower paced, up the middle, neutral rally balls. At that point in time, Simon's best days of surprising opponents with pace were behind him, but damn he did well to make it competitive. Unfortunately, I remember Djoko raising his game in the 5th to take it fairly comfortably in the end. And the "no more drop shots' joke.

Awesome write up, once again Maybe it's time to revisit said match