Match Stats/Report - Thiem vs Djokovic, Year End Championship round robin, 2019

[Waspsting]

Dominic Thiem beat Novak Djokovic 6-7(5), 6-3, 7-6(5) in the Year End Championship round robin, 2019 on indoor hard court in London, England

Thiem would go onto lose in the final to Stefanos Tsitsipas while Djokovic would be eliminated in the round robin stage. Thiem would top the group with a 2-1 record, Djokovic would be third with a 1-2 one. The other two players in the group were Roger Federer and Matteo Berrettini

Thiem won 110 points, Djokovic 108

Serve Stats
Thiem...
- 1st serve percentage (71/125) 57%
- 1st serve points won (48/71) 68%
- 2nd serve points won (28/54) 52%
- Aces 6, Service Winners 1
- Double Faults 4
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (29/125) 23%

Djokovic...
- 1st serve percentage (58/93) 62%
- 1st serve points won (42/58) 72%
- 2nd serve points won (17/35) 49%
- Aces 9
- Double Faults 3
- Unreturned Serve Percentage (27/93) 29%

Serve Patterns
Thiem served...
- to FH 39%
- to BH 53%
- to Body 8%

Djokovic served...
- to FH 47%
- to BH 50%
- to Body 3%

Return Stats
Thiem made...
- 63 (28 FH, 35 BH), including 4 runaround FHs
- 2 Winners (1 FH, 1 BH)
- 18 Errors, comprising...
- 5 Unforced (1 FH, 4 BH)
- 13 Forced (9 FH, 4 BH)
- Return Rate (63/90) 70%

Djokovic made...
- 92 (39 FH, 53 BH)
- 2 Winners (2 FH)
- 22 Errors, comprising...
- 8 Unforced (3 FH, 5 BH)
- 14 Forced (6 FH, 8 BH)
- Return Rate (92/121) 76%

Break Points
Thiem 4/4
Djokovic 3/9 (5 games)

Winners (including returns, excluding serves)
Thiem 43 (21 FH, 10 BH, 7 FHV, 1 BHV, 4 OH)
Djokovic 18 (8 FH, 8 BH, 2 FHV)

Thiem's FHs - 4 cc (1 return), 4 dtl (1 pass), 1 dtl/inside-out, 6 inside-out (1 at net), 4 inside-in, 1 inside-in/cc, 1 longline/inside-in
- BHs - 2 cc (1 return), 5 dtl, 1 inside-out, 1 inside-out/dtl, 1 net chord dribbler (with Djokovic at net)

- 5 from a serve-volley points - 3 first volleys (2 FHV, 1 BHV) & 2 second volleys (2 OH)

- 2 other FHVs were swinging shot (1 inside-out, 1 non-net inside-in/cc) and 1 other FHV can reasonably be called an OH
- 1 other OH was on the bounce

Djokovic's FHs - 4 cc (2 returns), 1 cc/inside-in, 1 dtl/inside-out pass, 2 inside-in (1 at net)
- BHs - 3 cc (1 pass), 3 dtl (1 2 passes - 1 not clean), 2 drop shots

- 1 FHV was a swinging, non-net inside-in shot

Errors (excluding serves and returns)
Thiem 59
- 45 Unforced (23 FH, 19 BH, 2 FHV, 1 BHV)... with 1 swinging FHV
- 14 Forced (8 FH, 4 BH, 2 BH1/2V)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 48.4

Djokovic 35
- 24 Unforced (12 FH, 10 BH, 1 FHV, 1 BHV)
- 11 Forced (6 FH, 5 BH)... with 1 BH running-down-drop-shot at net
- Unforced Error Forcefulness Index 44.2

(Note 1: All 1/2 volleys refer to such shots played at net. 1/2 volleys played from other parts of the court are included within relevant groundstroke numbers)

(Note 2: the Unforced Error Forcefulness Index is an indicator of how aggressive the average UE was. The numbers presented are keyed on 4 categories - 20 defensive, 40 neutral, 50 attacking and 60 winner attempt)

Net Points & Serve-Volley
Thiem was...
- 15/26 (58%) at net, including...
- 5/6 (83%) serve-volleying, all 1st serves
---
- 0/1 retreating

Djokovic was...
- 5/12 (42%) at net, with...
- 1/2 forced back

Match Report
A match as brilliant as it is simple. Baseline action. Thiem attacks with shot-making and power hitting. Djokovic counter-punches and defends. Both do what they do very well. Things are very close. Ending is thrilling. Djokovic has little better of things overall. Thiem wins. Court is quick-ish. QED

Thiem’s on fire for most of 2 and a half sets with extraordinary shot-making. He doesn’t move Djokovic around or use serve to draw weak return to set up his boatload of baseline winners. He just nails them time and time again from routine positions. Off both sides. Run of the mill, standard cc rallies - the kind that’s the staple of every match of the year. And bang - winner from Thiem ends it

That description takes poetic license - serve does set up a few, and Djoko is pushed back by power though not to the sides sometimes. BH partakes but its FH that’s chief executioner. The cc rallies feature particularly good hitting as befits the 2 players and not what you see every match of the year. And Thiem misses his point-ending shots fair bit - score would be 3 & 3 if he didn’t. But there aren’t many matches that invite poetic exaggeration the way Thiem’s blazing guns showing here does

What Thiem does is unsustainable (though he seems to be unaware of that) and fires dying down after 2.5 sets - just going a 6-4 set successfully playing like this would be feat worth a poem - as match nears its end. All that brilliance, only for a mundane ending?

Nope. Things get extremely tense near the end. Not necessarily for good play, but tension isn’t a bad substitute for it at that stage, and forgiveable for a match that’s already run over its cup’s quota for it

Serving at 4-5, on back of first real lull in non-stop hot action, Thiem’s tested to hold by one of Djoko’s best return games, with returns peppering the baseline. He comes through to hold

Djoko follows up with a shocker of a poor game to be broken to love and leave Thiem serving for match. Anti-climactic. Or it would have been, had Thiem not doubled it with an even poorer game to be broken back to 15 - and its onto tiebreak

Djoko opens up 3-0, 2 mini-break lead, though hands 1 back at once. All 4 points end in UEs - 4 of them sloppy, 1 after a terrific rally where Djoko defends like the dickens to stay in before Thiem’s miss

Thiem finds his shot-making and hitting one last time from there to turn around the breaker, and claim it 7-5 in the end. The falling to the ground celebration for a second round robin win (he’d beaten Roger Federer in his first match) is understandable, if a little odd

While Thiem takes all eyes, Djoko does edge action overall

Points won are virtually identical (Thiem 110, Djoko 108 - so dead even at 103 going into the final tiebreak), but Thiem serves 125 of them, Djoko just 93. In percentage, Thiem wins 50.5% of points, serving 57.3% of them
Break points - Thiem 4/4, Djoko 3/9 (5 games)

Thiem’s extra breaks gets him the middle set. Djoko having better of the other two coming through in his figures
1st serve in - Thiem 57%, Djoko 62%
1st serve won - Thiem 68%, Djoko 72%
2nd serve points won - Thiem 52%, Djoko 49%

Djoko winning would be the smarter bet going on that

Serve & Return
… also known as nooks and crannies. Match isn’t centered on the first two shots at all. That doesn’t mean there’s not interesting stuff going on. High among them being Djokovic’s serve being one really weird pot-pourri

Some good first serves (he’s got 9 aces), but a high lot of regulation, not-particularly pacey in swing zone first serves. Some good, damaging second serves, and some genuinely, soft weak ones

Weird. If he could serve better, why doesn’t he? He makes 6/6 first serves in the final tiebreak - only 1 of them is a good, wide one with rest being a step-up from point starter. He’s not doing it to protect second serve, which Thiem doesn’t go after, which is itself weird

Way Thiem plays - dashing winners from routine positions all match - you’d think weak second serves would get the full treatment from him. It doesn’t. Just returns them orthodoxly. When he finally lands a return winner against a weak serve (a BH cc) in the third set, it looks long overdue. Its only his second of the match. He’s hit winners from at least a dozen balls in play that were lower percentage shots than that BH return winner - and there’s about a dozen more similar calibre second serves he just plays back normally

Thiem with a heftier first serve than Djoko, rarely placed too wide. Court is quick-ish at most, nothing too challenging to return

Djoko’s a little off in returning regulation stuff

On the return -
- UEs - Thiem 5, Djoko 8
- FEs - Thiem 13, Djoko 14

Few UEs are bound to come. 8 is on high side for Djoko. Just stock, in-swing zone stuff, usually second serves. Misses the ones he does by comfy distance too, not just an inch or two long, as can happen when going for particular depth

As for quality of returns, Djoko gets his share of typical deep returns against second serves, and bops a few good, wide firsts back with the kind of authority only he seems to be able to against such balls. Just normal, solid stuff from Thiem on the second shot - of consistency and heat

Quite a strange blend
- Djoko’s serve all over the place - strong/weak crossed with 1st/2nd serve - he covers ‘em all
- his normal lot of good returns, with consistency a bit off
- Normal stuff from Thiem on serve - hefty firsts, not too widely placed, but not weak ones either (Djoko serves some of both types by contrast) and return - orthodox, firm returning

Better server is up in the air, Djoko’s deeper returning giving him an advantage on the second shot for Djoko to lead serve-return complex overall

Djoko with 76% - 70% lead in return rate, while typically returning with more force is very good start for him going into rallies. Where…

 

[Waspsting]

Play - Baseline (& Net)
Winners - Thiem 43, Djoko 18
Errors Forced - Thiem 11, Djoko 14
UEs - Thiem 45, Djoko 24

As stated earlier, this is a very simple match. Basically, all that comes out of standard, dual winged cc rallies, with occasional direction change-ups

The stock stuff is solidly good, as you’d expect from these players. Thiem just happens to go for his shots to the tune of nailing 43 of them for winners. Its an exaggeration to say he’s ‘clincial’ about it, but he’s rarely ‘wildly aggressive’ either (going for crazy winners from everything and anything). Rallying, with a wide eye open to attack best describes Thiem’s approach to play

And he nails 43 winners doing that. In every direction

FHs include 3 cc, 3 dtl, 5 cc, 6 inside-in based
BHs include 5 dtl and 2 inside-out based (just 1 cc)
Those are just the basic shots, limited to baseline-to-baseline shots - no net shots, passes, returns

Throw in 5 from serve-volleys (he only serve-volleys 6 times) and a swinging non-net FHV inside-in/cc realistically belongs with the FH winners rather than volleys (same way 1/2volleys at net are more akin to volleys than groundstrokes)

That basic yield amounts to 29 - more than half-again as Djoko’s 18
Just 11 errors forced. You don’t see such a winner heavy aggressively points ended yield even in old serve-volley matches

Simple action, not much to add about Thiem’s showing. Goes for his shots from normal rallies, and nails them regularly. No half-measures in his attacks

UEFIs - Thiem 48.4, Djoko 44.2
UE breakdown
- Defensive - Djoko 1
- Neutral - Thiem 22, Djoko 16
- Attacking - Thiem 8, Djoko 2
- Winner Attempts - Thiem 15, Djoko 5

Neutrals could go either way in a match between the two. With Thiem flaming hot, imperative for Djoko to lead in this match. Leads not as big as he’d need it to be. Good stock rallying from both players, errors coming not from sloppiness but because errors are inevitable. Late in the match, Thiem’s ‘neutral’ power threatens to merge with ‘attacking’ and Djoko falls back (its very, very rare for Djokovic to fall back in general) to handle it

Very good attacking yield from Djoko - 2 errors for forcing 14. His typical, high quality, slipped in moderate dtl attacking shots. Thiem’s no slack defender either. If he’s not able to attack more often, its all down to to Thiem power-hitting and shot-making

Efficiency on winners (dividing winners by winner attempt UEs), Thiem 2.87, Djoko 3.6

Djoko leading in attacking efficiency - of both moderate and final kind. As he’d need to to stay competitive, with Thiem also successful and on the attack so much more often

Net play has come out funny, with both players doing badly rallying forward. Rallying to net -
Thiem 10/20
Djoko 5/12

Some great passes from Djoko and both players missing routine volleys accounts for it. Thiem’s 5/6 serve-volleying though - a nice spice to go with the main of baseline shot-making

Though small, net points are important. Djoko takes net on important points - he’s twice broken there. With hitting the way it is, chances to come in are limited for him. And Thiem faltering there keeps him from diversifying his attacks… it’d be a lot more comfortable for him to have options of shot-making or take net to finish

Finally, defence and options. There’s plenty of defensive work for Djoko to do. He isn’t always 100% committed to it and at times, doesn’t give chase to balls he at least is capable of getting on the run and stretch. He isn’t half-assed and no question of tanking, but worth noting, is that he is less than all in all the time. How much good it would do him if he were remains to be seen

On whole, Djoko hits firmly, clinically with good depth. Depth isn’t bad even when he falls back. His usual game, which makes it difficult to attack. All credit to Thiem for pulling off the fireworks as well he does

Alternatives for Djoko? In years gone by, he’d throttle high flying aggression by closing up the court with blunt angled ball bashing. In early matches against Roger Federer and later against Stan Wawrinka, this was common. Made for ugly tennis, but its better from his point of view than having winners rain down all day

Little of that here. He sticks to normal angled cc shots. No guarantee it’d work either. Thiem’s more powerful hitter than him and not too far behind of consistency.

Despite not being able to spike Thiem’s guns and Thiem’s guns dazzling, worth noting is Djoko still has slightly better of things

 

[Waspsting]

Match Progression
First set follows general match pattern - Thiem with the shot-making brilliance, Djoko with the strong, solid groundgame. Djoko has considerably better of things, serving 34 points, while Thiem serves 50

Some excellent, damaging second serves from both player. A few ordinary firsts from Djoko. Thiem’s more powerful in neutral rallies and FH inside-out makes up main part of his aggression, though he’s willing to step up with BH dtl’s too. Few serve-volleys too

Djoko’s rock solid off the ground and barely misses a ball, leaving Thiem to when rallies stay neutral. Measured BH dtl shots from Djoko forces errors and makes up much of his offence

Unusual (for him), swinging inside-in FHV winner from Djoko from well behind service line in game 3. He gains the break game. Thiem misses a big FH inside-out early, but stays ahead. A typical return to the baseline from Djoko makes things deuce, before Thiem double faults and misses a swinging FHV to end the game

Thiem breaks right back with a vengeance to love with 3 winners - FH cc return, swinging inside-out FHV and BH dtl. He’s under the gun next game again, saving 3 break points in 12 point game. Djoko misses a regulation first return on one of the break points

Things continues in lively fashion, with server not too bothered. Thiem holds a deuce game where he was down 15-30 being only exception and its not much of one

Tiebreak. Djoko’s never behind, after nailing a clutch BH cc passing winner to go up 2-0. A Thiem double fault makes up for Djoko losing a service point later via a not-easy BH UE

Thiem reaches equality for only time at 5-5 by hitting his second FH inside-out winner in a row - this time on a return point, and following a series of brutally powerful FHs that Djoko does well to defend, but misses a neutral FH he tries to angle a bit next point. Djoko takes the set with an unreturned first serve, but it’s a very ordinary delivery and been marked a UE

Djoko with 4 UEs for the set, which is unsustainably good given the excellent hitting from both players in the set. Thiem with 16 winners, 6 winner attempt UEs. Key to action is neutral UEs where he has 9 to Djoko’s ridiculously low 3

First set showing by Thiem would be highlight of most matches. Its an appetizer to what he puts on in the second as he smacks winners right, left (he misses center) off both wings against decent, normal balls. Djoko also comes down from his wall status, but result is due to Thiem

Thiem grabs the break first chance to move up 2-0, and is taken to deuce once after (no break points). Back to back BH dtl winners (first 1 out of nowhere, second 1 after gaining ground in cc rally just prior to it) gets him to break point, where Djoko takes net and misses a routine height BHV, with the pass being above average of power. A UE

No shortage of brilliance after, but it all stays on serve til Thiem serves out to 15. Short arm jab of FH dtl winner decorates the game and its 1 set all

Thiem’s got 13 winners, 6 UEs for the set (just 2 winner attempts). He only forces 1 error
Djoko makes his 5th UE of the set on 21st point. He’d gone 88 points in the first making 4. Tightens things up from then on - and finishes set with an excellent 7 winners, forcing 3 errors, 8 UEs himself

Thiem breaks to start the decider, opening the game with a BH inside-out/dtl winner, ending with a FH dtl pass one. He has to save 3 break points to consolidate, which he manages with more aggression (all 6 points he wins in the game are winners or FEs)

Thiem’s fire starts fading some as match goes on. Djoko breaks back for 3-3, with Thiem missing couple FH winner attempts. Break point though is amusing, as a being beaten-down and back Djoko casually picks up a deep, powerful hit from Thiem for a FH cc winner. Beautiful, easy shot against a very strong ball, Federer like

Based on his reaction, its almost certain that hee thought Thiem’s ball was out, or he wouldn’t have played the shot to begin with

3 easy holds lead to the finale, described earlier. Adding on a bit about the ‘breaker itself, Djoko stumbling accounts for outcome as much as Thiem’s positive contribution. Thiem stumbles too with 2 volley UEs and a double fault early on to fall behind 3-0

Djoko missing a regulation, neutral third ball BH hands back 1 mini. Though landing 6/6 of first serves, only 1 is any good from Djoko (it hard forces an error, the rest present routine returns). Thiem’s brilliance of course is present - his best shot isn’t a winner, but a BH inside-out’ish shot that forces an error - and he’s got 3 other winners, including a FH dtl from routine position that puts him ahead for first time at 5-4

On his first match point, Thiem misses third ball against a decent return and its back on serve. Djoko’s FH blinks - he’s well behind baseline, wary as he’s learnt to be of Thiem power when he makes it - and that’s the match

Summing up, amazing display of shot-making from Thiem, who pounds winners off both wings from routine positions against the strong norm of Djokovic’s stock shots all match. The flood of winners in all directions becomes almost boring

Relegated to second fiddle though he is, Djokovic isn’t just right in the match, but actually has slightly better of it by staying solid, sneaking in more subtle attacks of his own and defending gamely
Nothing in the result, it happens to fall Thiem’s way, a win for attacking tennis

There is a battle-war cliche to all this and how it speaks to prospects for future encounters between the pair. Thiem cannot play like this every day. Djokovic probably can. For Thiem to play out of his skin and win by a coat of varnish isn’t a good sign for him moving forward against this opponent, at least, as far as this brand of out and out shot-making goes

Stats for Djokovic’s round robin match with Roger Federer - Duel Match Stats/Reports - Federer vs Djokovic, Year End Championship round robins, 2019 & 2015 | Talk Tennis (tennis-warehouse.com)

@ForehandCross

 

[Third Serve]

One of the highest quality matches we’ve seen from the last few years.