Nadal will win 2+ non-RG slams from here on

[Sport]

The chances are actually quite high that neither Nadal or Roger will ever win another slam. People here talk about majors like winning one is like walking across the street to pick up the mail.

Nadal is the biggest favorite for RG 2019. Federer is not the biggest favorite for WB 2019 (unless Djokovic gets injured). Subsequently, Nadal and Federer are not in the same situation. Nadal is much more likely to keep adding Majors than Federer, even outside clay. Nadal is 5 years younger than Federer and has had better results in the recent Slams outside clay. Nadal reached the SF of WB and the USO, while Federer did not reach the SF of the last two Grand Slams.

 

[Towser83]

I think 2 more non RG slams exactly. Fill in the blanks of what that implies.

Those that say he won''t win at least 1 more aren't thinking about this properly. I wish that was the case as a Djokovic fan, but come on.

It's hard to predict. I mean he won the USO last year but there was a 4 year gap between that and his last non RG slam. Another 3-4 years from now will he still be able to win slams? It's largely going to come down to whether Djokovic is in form, whether any other players step up to beat Nadal (Theim was close) and how healthy Nadal remains. It could be 2 non RG slams, it could be none.

Looking at it, Nadal has won 6 non RG slams

2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2010 - 2
2013 - 1
2017 - 1

Outside of that 08-10 period he's only won 2 non RG slams and the gaps have been 3 and 4 years. That tells me that he's going to need a lack of competition to win another 2. I could be wrong, but going on history it leans on the negative side

 

[Sport]

It's hard to predict. I mean he won the USO last year but there was a 4 year gap between that and his last non RG slam. Another 3-4 years from now will he still be able to win slams? It's largely going to come down to whether Djokovic is in form, whether any other players step up to beat Nadal (Theim was close) and how healthy Nadal remains. It could be 2 non RG slams, it could be none.

Looking at it, Nadal has won 6 non RG slams

2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2010 - 2
2013 - 1
2017 - 1

Outside of that 08-10 period he's only won 2 non RG slams and the gaps have been 3 and 4 years. That tells me that he's going to need a lack of competition to win another 2. I could be wrong, but going on history it leans on the negative side

He doesn't need "a lack of competition" to win Majors outside clay. He was close to defeat Djokovic (the biggest possible rival) on indoor conditions at Wimbledon 2018. And he had a typical knee injury (mainly because of the draw from hell) at the US Open 2018.

He needs a normally difficult draw (2 tough players but not 4 like the US Open with Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then potentially Djokovic). Djokovic only faced 1 tough player at the US Open 2018 (Del Potro).

 

[reaper]

He doesn't need "a lack of competition" to win Majors outside clay. He was close to defeat Djokovic (the biggest possible rival) on indoor conditions at Wimbledon 2018. And he had a typical knee injury (mainly because of the draw from hell) at the US Open 2018.

He needs a normally difficult draw (2 tough players but not 4 like the US Open with Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then potentially Djokovic). Djokovic only faced 1 tough player at the US Open 2018 (Del Potro).

Ferrer/Pospisil/Bashiavelli/Khachanov/ Thiem/Del Potro is a draw from hell?

 

[Sport]

Ferrer/Pospisil/Bashiavelli/Khachanov/ Thiem/Del Potro is a draw from hell?

Yes of course. 4 tough players on hard courts (Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic). Don't forget Djokovic who was waiting in the final in case Nadal passed.

I mean, Djokovic only face 1 though player (Del Potro).

Easy draw: 0-1 tough player.
Normal draw: 2 tough players.
Draw from hell: 4 tough players.

 

[reaper]

It's hard to predict. I mean he won the USO last year but there was a 4 year gap between that and his last non RG slam. Another 3-4 years from now will he still be able to win slams? It's largely going to come down to whether Djokovic is in form, whether any other players step up to beat Nadal (Theim was close) and how healthy Nadal remains. It could be 2 non RG slams, it could be none.

Looking at it, Nadal has won 6 non RG slams

2008 - 1
2009 - 1
2010 - 2
2013 - 1
2017 - 1

Outside of that 08-10 period he's only won 2 non RG slams and the gaps have been 3 and 4 years. That tells me that he's going to need a lack of competition to win another 2. I could be wrong, but going on history it leans on the negative side

Yes, he's won 2 non clay slams in 8 years. He's been very close in 3 others (AO 12, AO 17 and Wimbledon 18) so probably should have another one with any luck. He's also 32. That's not the record of a guy with a lot of non clay slams left.

 

[Towser83]

He doesn't need "a lack of competition" to win Majors outside clay. He was close to defeat Djokovic (the biggest possible rival) on indoor conditions at Wimbledon 2018. And he had a typical knee injury (mainly because of the draw from hell) at the US Open 2018.

He needs a normally difficult draw (2 tough players but not 4 like the US Open with Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then potentially Djokovic). Djokovic only faced 1 tough player at the US Open 2018 (Del Potro).

Going on his results in the last 8 years and the fact he's getting older, I think he needs a lack of competition and by that I mean a lack of Djokovic or 2017 form Federer. Against most other players he is the favourite so if Fed is not in 2017 form and Djokovic is not there then Nadal still is the favourite at any slam if in good form.

Definitely Thiem, Delpo and Djokovic is hard but you'd expect to play 2 tough players and the lack of this recently is what I mean by lack of competition. A few years back you'd say beating 2 of Fed/Nadal/Djokovic/Murray/Stan/Delpo was normal. He had 1 big 4 player and two sometimes tough players, too much is being made over Khachanov who is promising, but let's not act like he's a proven threat in slams just because he ended up in Nadal's draw.

I know he was close to beating Djokovic at Wimbledon but then again Fed was close to beating Nadal in Rome 2006 and he never got anywhere near that close again. Just because he had a good wimbledon run doesn't mean I see him having that again and again as the years advance. I mean maybe he will next year but if not then next time he's 34 and it likely gets harder.

Injuries are common for Nadal so that's in fact another reason why multiple non RG wins are a bit hard to put money on. Before the USO started I said in a few posts that most times he wins a non RG slam he either doesn't play the following year or has an injury in a match he loses (now 4 of the 6 times he's won a non RG slam) So these injuries don't increase his chances.

But like I said, if he comes into an event playing well and healthy and Djokovic doesn't beat him, then he's got a good shot

 

[reaper]

Yes of course. 4 though players on hard courts (Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic). Don't forget Djokovic who was waiting in the final in case Nadal passed.

I mean, Djokovic only face 1 though player (Del Potro).

Nadal wasn't playing well enough to have quick matches. That was the real problem with his draw, not the quality of opponent. The physical toll accumulated and probably contributed to his knee injury. The same draw can look difficult or easy depending on the form of the leading player.

 

[Sport]

Nadal wasn't playing well enough to have quick matches.

No, Nadal had a draw from hell. Djokovic was even losing sets to "nobodies" at the USO 2018. Put Djokovic in Nadal's draw (Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then Nadal) and there is no way he would have had easy quick matches. Djokovic had a tougher draw at Cincinnati than the USO and he lost sets in most of his matches (Dimitrov, Raonic and Cilic).

I'm 100% sure Nadal would have reached the US Open final if he had had Djokovic's easy draw.

 

[Sport]

Going on his results in the last 8 years and the fact he's getting older, I think he needs a lack of competition and by that I mean a lack of Djokovic or 2017 form Federer.

Nadal doesn't need 2017 Federer or Djokovic out. Here's why:

Nadal had a close match against Federer at the AO 2017 (5 sets), so it's not like 2017 Federer is not beatable. Anyhow, Federer is not in 2017 level, nor will he come back to that level since he is 37.

Nadal was extremely close to defeat Djokovic at Wimbledon 2018 even in Djokovic's most favorable conditions (indoor), so Nadal doesn't need Djokovic to be out. Nadal has defeated Djokovic in Grand Slams many times (Wimbledon 2007, US Open 2010, US Open 2013, Wimbledon 2018 was close to be a victory). Djokovic is not unbeatable.

 

[metsman]

Nadal is the biggest favorite for RG 2019. Federer is not the biggest favorite for WB 2019 (unless Djokovic gets injured). Subsequently, Nadal and Federer are not in the same situation. Nadal is much more likely to keep adding Majors than Federer, even outside clay. Nadal is 5 years younger than Federer and has had better results in the recent Slams outside clay. Nadal reached the SF of WB and the USO, while Federer did not reach the SF of the last two Grand Slams.

don't worry, Fed just has to avoid Millman and he'll be fine.

 

[reaper]

No, Nadal had a draw from hell. Djokovic was even losing sets to "nobodies" at the USO 2018. Put Djokovic in Nadal's draw (Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then Nadal) and there is no way he would have had easy quick matches. Djokovic had a tougher draw at Cincinnati than the USO and he lost sets in most of his matches (Dimitrov, Raonic and Cilic).

I'm 100% sure Nadal would have reached the US Open final if he had had Djokovic's easy draw.

There was nothing particularly difficult about Nadal's draw going on ranking. Ferrer is semi retired and withdrew from the match, Pospisil is #85, Bashiavelli #31, Khachanov #24, Thiem #8 and Del Potro #4. Perhaps they played well, or perhaps Nadal let them play well but there's nothing about those players on paper that's unusually difficult.

 

[Sport]

There was nothing particularly difficult about Nadal's draw going on ranking. Ferrer is semi retired and withdrew from the match, Pospisil is #85, Bashiavelli #31, Khachanov #24, Thiem #8 and Del Potro #4. Perhaps they played well, or perhaps Nadal let them play well but there's nothing about those players on paper that's unusually difficult.

Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic are 4 tough players. Djokovic only faced 1 tough player (Del Potro). Subsequently, it is oversimplistic to argue that Djokovic "was in better form" without any mention to the difference of the draw. To be honest, it is far from clear that Djokovic was in better from, since Nadal had a draw from hell and Djokovic an easier draw. (Djokovic lost sets to Dimitrov, Raonic and Cilic at Cincinnati so he could have had long matches with Nadal's draw).

Nadal would have reached the USO final with Djokovic's easier draw.

 

[Deleted member 307496]

He doesn't need "a lack of competition" to win Majors outside clay. He was close to defeat Djokovic (the biggest possible rival) on indoor conditions at Wimbledon 2018. And he had a typical knee injury (mainly because of the draw from hell) at the US Open 2018.

He needs a normally difficult draw (2 tough players but not 4 like the US Open with Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and then potentially Djokovic). Djokovic only faced 1 tough player at the US Open 2018 (Del Potro).

Khachanov and Thiem are mugs...

 

[helterskelter]

Yes, he's won 2 non clay slams in 8 years. He's been very close in 3 others (AO 12, AO 17 and Wimbledon 18) so probably should have another one with any luck. He's also 32. That's not the record of a guy with a lot of non clay slams left.

And AO 14.

 

[helterskelter]

Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic are 4 tough players. Djokovic only faced 1 tough player (Del Potro). Subsequently, it is oversimplistic to argue that Djokovic "was in better form" without any mention to the difference of the draw. To be honest, it is far from clear that Djokovic was in better from, since Nadal had a draw from hell and Djokovic an easier draw. (Djokovic lost sets to Dimitrov, Raonic and Cilic at Cincinnati so he could have had long matches with Nadal's draw).

Nadal would have reached the USO final with Djokovic's easier draw.

Nadal definitely had a more difficult draw at the US Open 18 than did Djokovic. No doubt.

I would say Nadal had a tough draw, but not a draw from hell. Draws from hell are rare. I'm not even sure one exists right now. But it would be something like having to beat Wawrinka, Federer, Djokovic, and Del Potro when all four are on at least decent form.

 

[Towser83]

Nadal doesn't need 2017 Federer or Djokovic out. Here's why:

Nadal had a close match against Federer at the AO 2017 (5 sets), so it's not like 2017 Federer is not beatable. Anyhow, Federer is not in 2017 level, nor will he come back to that level since he is 37.

Nadal was extremely close to defeat Djokovic at Wimbledon 2018 even in Djokovic's most favorable conditions (indoor), so Nadal doesn't need Djokovic to be out. Nadal has defeated Djokovic in Grand Slams many times (Wimbledon 2007, US Open 2010, US Open 2013, Wimbledon 2018 was close to be a victory). Djokovic is not unbeatable.

No Djokovic is not unbeatable but in his best form Djokovic will be the favourite outside of RG. I know he got close at Wimbledon but he still lost and it was the first time in 7 years he got close, it doesn't automatically follow that he'll get close next year. He got close at the AO last year, but this year he lost to Cilic. We're talking about Nadal winning 2 or more non RG slams, considering he's won just 2 in the last 8 years and he's now 32.

I know he's beaten Novak many times but are we seriously going back to 2007? lol. I might as well say Djokovic was close to beating Nadal at RG in 2013 and beat him in 2015 so he's got a great chance at RG.


Given his record in non RG slams over the past 8 years, something has to change for him to win more than 2, because he's only managed 2 in the last 8 years. That's my point about lack of competition, because one thing you can say is that there has been a drop off and the new guys have been slow coming in. This helped Fed and Nadal recently. Novak stopped Nadal winning a few slams and he himself is getting older so how long can he keep up this resurgence? The new guys aren't taking over yet. So that could be the difference between now and the last 8 years. You might say Nadal doesn't need any of this but why has he only won 2 non RG slams in the last 8 years then, and what's going to change to make him improve on this as he gets further into his 30s?

 

[ewiewp]

Is Top Spin 5 out yet?

Nadal is more likely to not win any more FO titles than to win 2 or more AO/W/USO:
1) He'll be 33 years old next year. An old 33 year (tennis wise) old too.
2) Djokovic is back and will be a roadblock for him in every Slam including the FO
3) He has a history of injuries - only this year he retired in 2 Slams despite playing a very limited schedule outside of clay.
4) He hasn't looked good in any tournament outside of clay in a year and that includes 2018 Canada
5) He's won 1 Slam outside of the FO in the last 5 years in which he faced no top 20 players
6) He's won 2 Slams outside of the FO in the last 8 years and had easy draws in both
7) Last time he's won Wimbledon was in 2010
8) Last time he's won AO was in 2009
9) Debatable but - the young players won't be sucking forever and with Nadal's decline someone like Thiem or Zverev could beat him in a Slam. Thiem was actually 2 points away from doing that this year.

I am not sure if Rafa is very old 33.
We've been hearing this kind of comments since he was 17, right?
Basically "Nadal won't last due to his physical game" but somehow he lasted this long (longest ever in some terms).
There must be something everybody mis-understand.

1. He has had de facto off-season in winter almost every year
2. He has had 6 month - 1 year break(injury) every 2 or 3 years.
3. His actual playing time in a match is a lot shorter than people think (considering his long time between points.
4. In a lot of matches, his total running distance is often shorter than his opponents.

I think Rafa is pretty well rested 33 year old compared to other top players.

It's just his knee issues (chronic due to his ankle issues he is born with) he needs to manage.

 

[reaper]

And AO 14.

No, I didn't forget that one.

 

[reaper]

Nadal definitely had a more difficult draw at the US Open 18 than did Djokovic. No doubt.

I would say Nadal had a tough draw, but not a draw from hell. Draws from hell are rare. I'm not even sure one exists right now. But it would be something like having to beat Wawrinka, Federer, Djokovic, and Del Potro when all four are on at least decent form.

On paper Nadal had a pretty standard draw, Djokovic had an easy one.

 

[jm1980]

On paper Nadal had a pretty standard draw, Djokovic had an easy one.

Let's not delude ourselves. On paper Nadal had a very easy draw until the semis. Thiem is generally useless on HC

 

[helterskelter]

No, I didn't forget that one.

I mean, the final wasn't that close in the end, but he got to the final and was playing someone he'd never dropped a set against. It was obvious ahead of time that Wawrinka had a good chance on that occasion, but I'd still make it within the range where Nadal could have easily won had luck been on his side.

 

[MugOpponent]

I would take two more non RG slams in a heartbeat, and truthfully I'd probably take a guaranteed one if that was the offer.. I actually am very interested to see how he fares in AO2019. I'm of the opinion the slow courts in USO actually hurt him this time. If he applies his 2018 Wimbledon game in Melbourne, it could really work well.

 

[Steve0904]

I think 2 more non RG slams exactly. Fill in the blanks of what that implies.

Those that say he won''t win at least 1 more aren't thinking about this properly. I wish that was the case as a Djokovic fan, but come on.

I think he'll win 1 more exactly tbh. I also think there's a higher likelihood he wins no more than 2 more. I don't even think 0 is a bad answer necessarily. For comparison, Federer went 5 years without winning a slam even though he played fantastic through most of that time, and now Djokovic is back. He won USO 2017 in a cakewalk, and before that his last USO was in 2013 when he was still in his 20's. He came extremely close at Wimbledon, but that doesn't really mean he'll win it for sure at some point in the next 2-3 years either. And his AO performance over the years has been a rollercoaster.

The best thing you can say is that he'll have chances if he keeps playing like he is now, but he also isn't getting any younger.

 

[mike danny]

Nadal is the biggest favorite for RG 2019. Federer is not the biggest favorite for WB 2019 (unless Djokovic gets injured). Subsequently, Nadal and Federer are not in the same situation. Nadal is much more likely to keep adding Majors than Federer, even outside clay. Nadal is 5 years younger than Federer and has had better results in the recent Slams outside clay. Nadal reached the SF of WB and the USO, while Federer did not reach the SF of the last two Grand Slams.

Except all this 5 years younger thing hasn't allowed Nadal to win more non-clay slams than Fed in the last 8 years.

 

[mike danny]

Yes of course. 4 tough players on hard courts (Khachanov, Thiem, Del Potro and Djokovic). Don't forget Djokovic who was waiting in the final in case Nadal passed.

I mean, Djokovic only face 1 though player (Del Potro).

Easy draw: 0-1 tough player.
Normal draw: 2 tough players.
Draw from hell: 4 tough players.

Thiem tough on HC?

 

[Rafa the King]

Thiem tough on HC?

Just because he has a bad HC record doesn't mean he didn't play an incredible match and most likely his best ever outside clay.

 

[MichaelNadal]

Is Top Spin 5 out yet?

Nadal is more likely to not win any more FO titles than to win 2 or more AO/W/USO:
1) He'll be 33 years old next year. An old 33 year (tennis wise) old too.
2) Djokovic is back and will be a roadblock for him in every Slam including the FO
3) He has a history of injuries - only this year he retired in 2 Slams despite playing a very limited schedule outside of clay.
4) He hasn't looked good in any tournament outside of clay in a year and that includes 2018 Canada
5) He's won 1 Slam outside of the FO in the last 5 years in which he faced no top 20 players
6) He's won 2 Slams outside of the FO in the last 8 years and had easy draws in both
7) Last time he's won Wimbledon was in 2010
8) Last time he's won AO was in 2009
9) Debatable but - the young players won't be sucking forever and with Nadal's decline someone like Thiem or Zverev could beat him in a Slam. Thiem was actually 2 points away from doing that this year.

His best chance is on the USO crypto clay courts.

55% no more Slams. 45% one more FO.

No more Slams for Federer.

Djokovic 2-4 more Slams.

These guys are really old, especially Federer.

 

[RS]

Good call was 2 exact.

What a career.

 

[The_Order]

Good call was 2 exact.

What a career.

Exact? Didn't you get the memo? He's winning WIM and US this year too!